Global warming discussion IV

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I don't doubt those sources at all, but the study mentioned in the article I posted, discussed dissolved CO2 acidification in freshwater systems. I'm assuming that sulphate ion and carbonate ion ratios should indicate the relative sources of the H+ ions that are generating the acidification. Unless of course, the author of the piece doesn't really understand the study he was interpreting, which is a too common occurrence.

Well, that piece of press is not very explanatory. I wonder how they monitor the salmons. Some chunks of text like "ability to smell water" and "size" suggest laboratory tanks. I'm sure my ability to play a football game diminishes a lot if you "rapture" me and drop me in La Paz. Let me stay 6 weeks there and intake plenty of iron and vitamin C and check again. Did the fishes got the same courtesy or was it just experiment, database, barbecue?
 
Well, that piece of press is not very explanatory. I wonder how they monitor the salmons. Some chunks of text like "ability to smell water" and "size" suggest laboratory tanks. I'm sure my ability to play a football game diminishes a lot if you "rapture" me and drop me in La Paz. Let me stay 6 weeks there and intake plenty of iron and vitamin C and check again. Did the fishes got the same courtesy or was it just experiment, database, barbecue?

Largely agreed, the questions you ask, and I have, can really only be answered by the actual study (and perhaps not even then), not what we read in articles like this. I'll see what I can pull up...

Study: "Responses of pink salmon to CO2-induced aquatic acidification"
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2694.html

let's see:
"...team led by University of British Columbia’s Michelle Ou and Colin Brauner reared pink salmon embryos from the Quinsam River Hatchery at current and projected CO2 levels, ranging from today’s 450 μatm to 2,000 μatm. After 10 weeks, they were transferred to saltwater tanks."

This appears to be an earlier master's thesis by the lead author of the other paper
"The effect of climate change-*‐related environmental acidification on the growth, development and energetics of the early life stages of pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha)"
https://elk.library.ubc.ca/bitstream/handle/2429/48483/ubc_2014_september_ou_michelle.pdf?sequence=1
 
It seems to be one of many papers containing striking discoveries, like species being better adapted to conditions prevailing in recent times than to different conditions that may come in a near future. I am currently making a study that involves volunteers taken in the middle of the Summer and beamed up to the nearest terrafirma antipodal location with only the clothes they have on them. I hope to measure the rate of survival in 12 hours. So far I have troubles finding volunteers in Patagonia, Scandinavia, South Island in New Zealand and Alaska. Do you mind to join?

Jokes aside, I should anyway acknowledge they are detecting a measurable effect -it could not exist, it could be meaningless-.
 
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It seems to be one of many papers containing striking discoveries, like species being better adapted to conditions prevailing in recent times than to different conditions that may come in a near future. I am currently making a study that involves volunteers taken in the middle of the Summer and beamed up to the nearest terrafirma antipodal location with only the clothes they have on them. I hope to measure the rate of survival in 12 hours. So far I have troubles finding volunteers in Patagonia, Scandinavia, South Island in New Zealand and Alaska. Do you mind to join?

LOL, color me old fashioned but I'm just not into having my body's atoms scanned disassembled zipped through subspace and then reassembled by magical elves at the destination. Can't you just stack me on top of a half kiloton of explosive fuel and light the fuse like God intended normal human beings travel to space? :)
 
Still warming, still a lot human caused, still denied by fools, tools, villains and (the very most evil) republickers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:jaw-dropp
 
The Most Efficient, Cost Effective Means to Address AGW

Prince Charles: rewire the global economy to stop climate change
http://www.theguardian.com/environm...-charles-climate-change-rewire-global-economy

Prince Charles has said that “profound changes” to the global economic system are needed in order to avert environmental catastrophe, in an uncompromising speech delivered in front of an audience of senior business leaders and politicians.

The heir to the throne – often criticised for his meddling in political affairs – argued that ending the taxpayer subsidies enjoyed by coal, oil and gas companies could reduce the carbon emissions driving climate change by an estimated 13%.

Although the prince’s passion for environmental causes is well known, the speech delivered on Thursday evening in St James’s Palace, London was particularly pointed in its criticism of companies that protected vested interests and came with a report that proposed raising taxes on them...
(read rest above)

The longer we wait and the further we stray from the model suggested, the harder and more expensive both the damages and the corrective measures will become.
 
Tariffs on national emissions -and not product emissions- is the only way to make it work. Internal taxes on emissions -or withdrawal of subsidies- only makes national economies less competitive. Tariffs on national emissions make polluting nations less competitive, and that's the gist.

Tariffs on national emissions is such a good idea that if you proposed it you would be instantly aimed by guns, cannons, arrows and slingshots from every angle of society, local and abroad. Current international trade is designed to make every pro-environment action just a local one, and even being that way, still deter them.
 
Tariffs on national emissions -and not product emissions- is the only way to make it work. Internal taxes on emissions -or withdrawal of subsidies- only makes national economies less competitive. Tariffs on national emissions make polluting nations less competitive, and that's the gist.

Tariffs on national emissions is such a good idea that if you proposed it you would be instantly aimed by guns, cannons, arrows and slingshots from every angle of society, local and abroad. Current international trade is designed to make every pro-environment action just a local one, and even being that way, still deter them.

Actually, both a carbon tariff and the elimination of public subsidies are necessary and essential elements of economic balance. Subsidies exaggerate the imbalance of externalities, the removal of the subsidies remove the exaggeration. Carbon tariffs remove the market imbalance by allowing fair energy competition and a more full accounting of the actual costs of fossil carbon fuels.
 
Actually, both a carbon tariff and the elimination of public subsidies are necessary and essential elements of economic balance. Subsidies exaggerate the imbalance of externalities, the removal of the subsidies remove the exaggeration. Carbon tariffs remove the market imbalance by allowing fair energy competition and a more full accounting of the actual costs of fossil carbon fuels.

I'm speaking of tariffs on national emissions on products and services: a copy of Windows 10 will pay more than a short ton of Pennsylvania coal.
 
I'm speaking of tariffs on national emissions on products and services: a copy of Windows 10 will pay more than a short ton of Pennsylvania coal.

Why do you feel that a national carbon tax would not better capture the carbon cost upstream rather than trying capture carbon taxes downstream and the commercial point of sale on products and services? Upstream is much easier to manage and collect, down stream tends to be difficult (read as expensive with lots of failure points) to administer. Likewise, it would be very difficult to insure that such a downstream tax was made revenue neutral.

With an upstream carbon tax (collecting the tax at the mine/well) where the coal, oil, or gas is recovered from the earth (or at the border where products from nations that do no have an equitable carbon tax enter the country) there are natural funnel points that make collecting the tax easy to do.

As to neutralizing the revenue, even if we streamline this so that every dollar collected is redistributed back to every citizen of that nation equally in the form of monthly checks, you would accomplish increasing the prices of fossil fuels (thus discouraging their use) while also compensating the average citizen in an amount that is generally going to be greater than the increase in such fuel prices is going to have on the products and services they buy each month. The burden is going to fall on those who use a lot more fossil fuels than is average forcing a change in behavior toward other forms of energy and/or greater efficiency usage.

Applying this example to the US, counting all the fossil fuels recovered by U.S. companies and all the imported products and services from other nations that do not have a carbon tax, and given an effective carbon tax in the range of 50$ per ton of fossil carbon emitted by the production such products and services, it would not be unreasonable to expect an annual generation of around a trillion dollars worth of tax revenues per year. Divided into checks for each citizen this would work out to be each citizen receiving about $1700/year (or monthly checks of around ($142 USD) in the form of a carbon tax rebate. Thus a family of 4 would receive ~ $567USD in carbon tax offsets each month, While This amount isn't going to mean much to upper tax bracket families and individuals, it would be a tremendous boon for lower income families while pumping an extra several hundred billion dollars a year into the consumer economy by people who will be motivated to purchase the cheaper (low carbon tax impacted) products and services alternatives, and stimulate growth and development in companies eager to compete for those hundreds of billions of extra revenue represented by the carbon tax revenue checks.

Sound, solid economic mechanisms won't deal with the totality of the carbon issues we face, but they can certainly make the issues a lot easier to deal with by de-incentivising the use of fossil carbon fuels.
 
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Upstream is much easier to manage and collect, down stream tends to be difficult (read as expensive with lots of failure points) to administer. Likewise, it would be very difficult to insure that such a downstream tax was made revenue neutral.

I feel we're talking completely different notions. What you say is more a practical system to within-the-rules counterbalance tariffs on national emissions.

Personally, I find offensive the lack of a strong tax on vehicle fuels in the United States like most of the rest of the world has (please, other people, don't reply to this with lame examples of equally lame taxes on gasoline; read thoroughly). For instance, an extra tax of 100$ per ton or CO2 emissions on gasoline and air gasoline, means fuel 1$ more expensive per gallon, and an overall collection of 350 G$ -taking a 7% drop in consumption-.

If that is to be distributed by cheques addressed to citizen in a robinhoodesque way, I doubt it. I also oppose to additional taxes. Much of those 350 G$ should be distributed as tax relief, or social contribution relief.

But anyway, what I'm saying is that it is my problem that the United States pollute so much, and it's not my problem who does it or who pays what so they do it a bit less. My flat contains an average of 4 buckets more of CO2 of what it contained in 1940 when it was built. From that, more than a bucket comes from the USA and a couple of cups from Argentina herself.

I have to prevent that from going further, so my country, as any country, including the USA, has to apply a tariff on foreign goods and services imported. For instance, a tax of 50$ per ton of CO2 emitted by the US would mean some 320 G$ to be paid at custom points over some 2.3 T$ of exports, then some 14% environmental additional tariff must be charged worldwide on goods and services of the USA.

The USA could create a tax on fuel of 0.90$ per gallon in order to pre-pay those tariffs worldwide, according to this system, so the country's trade is not affected (or otherwise let it shrink; unemployment and depression would make the emissions cut). What the USA has to play is what they collect applying similarly set tariffs to the rest of the world, but they can't funnel it into subsidies for their own exportations.

This is a wildly oversimplified explanation of the system, but I think you'll get the core of it and how it works. It requires new international institutions, like environmental WorldBank and IMF, and new international treaties. That's why is much resisted to the point of violence as it simply prevents every country from going scot-free regarding to their own AGW emissions.

(With the same parameters, on Argentine goods and services it results in a 14% tariff as well, not because we are big polluters but because the government have shrunk international trade)
 
Loving your stuff, Alec.

Tariffs on national emissions is such a good idea that if you proposed it you would be instantly aimed by guns, cannons, arrows and slingshots from every angle of society, local and abroad. Current international trade is designed to make every pro-environment action just a local one, and even being that way, still deter them.

However, the cynic in me wonders how that is science. That's the subject I'd much prefer to be on.

Anyway, El Nino is science.

Confidence in it happening in 2015 is apparently sitting at about 95%, and the weather pattern sure as hell looks like one's in place. The early winter data from NZ suggests we could be in for something spectacular. I'm picking both winter high and low temperatures to be tested this side of the Pacific. Even in June, the trend has moved that way sharply.

One thing has me wondering. Last year, the likelihood of an El Nino event was listed in the 80% range but it never quite got going, although we had an El Nino-like winter. The data for this years is much stronger - hence the El Nino we now have in effect. (I don't think it's a great leap of logic right now to say we are actually experiencing one already.)

It's a while since we had a strong one and the planet is warmer now than then, so we might get the first globally-warmed El Nino event this year - a sign of things to come. Will it behave as it has in the past?

Is there a Saffer in the thread? We have 3/4 of the Southern Ocean land masses covered - might be interesting to compare effects of the El Nino across the globe.

If you think it's worthwhile, I'll start a new thread.
 
...It's a while since we had a strong one and the planet is warmer now than then, so we might get the first globally-warmed El Nino event this year - a sign of things to come. Will it behave as it has in the past?

If you think it's worthwhile, I'll start a new thread.

The 1998 el Nino was a "globally-warmed El Nino event" as well as most of those since at least 1890 or so (or possibly since the mid '50s or so, if you wanted to focus on the time frame that AGW has been a more dominant determinant of modern climate than solar insolation variances), therefore I am curious as to what distinction you are attempting to represent by attaching the phrase "globally-warmed El Nino event," regardless of its misuse?

That said, there are several el Nino threads already existent, if you'd prefer to focus on that topic using one of them might be useful.
 
I feel we're talking completely different notions. What you say is more a practical system to within-the-rules counterbalance tariffs on national emissions.

Personally, I find offensive the lack of a strong tax on vehicle fuels in the United States like most of the rest of the world has (please, other people, don't reply to this with lame examples of equally lame taxes on gasoline; read thoroughly). For instance, an extra tax of 100$ per ton or CO2 emissions on gasoline and air gasoline, means fuel 1$ more expensive per gallon, and an overall collection of 350 G$ -taking a 7% drop in consumption-.[

If that is to be distributed by cheques addressed to citizen in a robinhoodesque way, I doubt it. I also oppose to additional taxes. Much of those 350 G$ should be distributed as tax relief, or social contribution relief.

While I personally, would prefer Carbon tax revenues be used in a variety of means to redistribute the revenues to include offsetting some other forms of "taxation" such as offsetting some small business income taxes resulting in lowered rates of taxation on local Mom & Pop businesses as well as covering some payroll taxes, with a focus on assisting those earning below the median income level. I feel that these low income citizens will suffer the greatest amount of difficulty surviving the increases even minor rises in retail prices that will be generated from increased energy, production and distribution costs. Pay roll tax relief, however, isn't going to help offset the increases the poorest several million citizens who are the most poor, the severely poor, the destitute and the homeless who basically earn little or no real income (especially if their only income is largely derived from assistance programs instead of minimum wage jobs). But this makes the system complicated and expensive, requiring the administration of the funds to eat up revenue that should be being used to help people adjust to the costs of transforming the existing energy systems our society depends upon. The most simple revenue neutralization is to split the total tax revenue collected each year equally among every citizen of the nation. I would also make sure that such payments are considered income tax exempt and do not count toward either income local/state or federal income taxation consideration, or qualifying income for any local, state or federal benefits programs. I understand your desire to address specific programs or fund selecting programs but the idea is to keep the money out of the hands of politicians and give it back to the people that are ultimately paying the highest prices for any changes made to the existing system, the poor and the middle classes.

But anyway, what I'm saying is that it is my problem that the United States pollute so much, and it's not my problem who does it or who pays what so they do it a bit less. My flat contains an average of 4 buckets more of CO2 of what it contained in 1940 when it was built. From that, more than a bucket comes from the USA and a couple of cups from Argentina herself.

I have to prevent that from going further, so my country, as any country, including the USA, has to apply a tariff on foreign goods and services imported. For instance, a tax of 50$ per ton of CO2 emitted by the US would mean some 320 G$ to be paid at custom points over some 2.3 T$ of exports, then some 14% environmental additional tariff must be charged worldwide on goods and services of the USA.

The USA could create a tax on fuel of 0.90$ per gallon in order to pre-pay those tariffs worldwide, according to this system, so the country's trade is not affected (or otherwise let it shrink; unemployment and depression would make the emissions cut). What the USA has to play is what they collect applying similarly set tariffs to the rest of the world, but they can't funnel it into subsidies for their own exportations.

This is a wildly oversimplified explanation of the system, but I think you'll get the core of it and how it works. It requires new international institutions, like environmental WorldBank and IMF, and new international treaties. That's why is much resisted to the point of violence as it simply prevents every country from going scot-free regarding to their own AGW emissions.

(With the same parameters, on Argentine goods and services it results in a 14% tariff as well, not because we are big polluters but because the government have shrunk international trade)

I understand that there are many in the world who do not wish to move from where we are to where we need to go, but, we are no where near the point where the U.S. and all of the developed nations of the world are going to take full financial responsibility for the actions of their ancestors (or even decade ago versions of themselves). Insistence upon this will only eliminate cooperation and a successful addressment of climate change issues by those with the ability to actually make a significant difference, not engender the measures that will allow both the transformation and establishment of national and global guidelines, regulations, and laws to address this issue and quite possibly many other such issues.
 
If you think it's worthwhile, I'll start a new thread.

I wonder if, with Trakar's approval and via moderators, we may rename the thread "El Niño 2015..." and include both topics of how this mischievous child behaves here and there and this causing record warming years in a row. What should the thread's title be?

Meanwhile, if you know where all four Niño regions are, you may take a look to this post. The forecasts update automatically each month (now there are still values for June). It is pretty precise a model, and I wouldn't say that what's coming is dreadful but I ain't saying otherwise either.
 
Pay roll tax relief, however, isn't going to help offset the increases the poorest several million citizens who are the most poor, the severely poor, the destitute and the homeless who basically earn little or no real income (especially if their only income is largely derived from assistance programs instead of minimum wage jobs). But this makes the system complicated and expensive, requiring the administration of the funds to eat up revenue that should be being used to help people adjust to the costs of transforming the existing energy systems our society depends upon. The most simple revenue neutralization is to split the total tax revenue collected each year equally among every citizen of the nation.

I understand what you're saying but I don't agree with even more progressive taxation -these subsidies are kinda that-. But maybe, if it's distributed as universal vouchers to get education and/or health care, it would meet both social and economic goals. My way of thinking tells me we are all equal for social goals and social rights, but we stop being equal the moment we are allowed to spend the money however it pleases us.

But we're drifting away from the topic at hand...
 
...Applying this example to the US, counting all the fossil fuels recovered by U.S. companies and all the imported products and services from other nations that do not have a carbon tax, and given an effective carbon tax in the range of 50$ per ton of fossil carbon emitted by the production such products and services, it would not be unreasonable to expect an annual generation of around a trillion dollars worth of tax revenues per year. Divided into checks for each citizen this would work out to be each citizen receiving about $1700/year (or monthly checks of around ($142 USD) in the form of a carbon tax rebate. Thus a family of 4 would receive ~ $567USD in carbon tax offsets each month, While This amount isn't going to mean much to upper tax bracket families and individuals, it would be a tremendous boon for lower income families while pumping an extra several hundred billion dollars a year into the consumer economy by people who will be motivated to purchase the cheaper (low carbon tax impacted) products and services alternatives, and stimulate growth and development in companies eager to compete for those hundreds of billions of extra revenue represented by the carbon tax revenue checks...

Apologies. My numbers are really off in the above, somehow I almost doubled the U.S population and am probably under estimating the total Carbon tax according to the range of all fossil carbon fuels and adjusting tariffs on all imported products (including agricultural production and transportation) from nations without similar carbon taxes.

Total annual Carbon revenue shares would probably be much closer to $4k USD/year per citizen or roughly $1300/month for a family of four household.
 
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