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Global warming discussion III

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:dl:

Circularity noted: "that is irrelevant, i don't understand, hence it's irrelevant".

Another well deserved

:dl:

It was irrelevant to AGW together with Sun variations from the very beginning. Just one wipes out the other and you couldn't get it.

You had multiple opportunities to notice it. You had multiple opportunities to ask about. Now you only have

:dl:

bye bye

:rolleyes: not my fault when you totaly fail to bring across your point.

First you wrongly claim the TSI graphs from NASA are not really TSI and wrongly labeled TSI.
then you fail to explain the relevance of orbital eccentricity to AGW.
 
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A couple of reflection-triggers

From NOAA>NCDC>NOMADS, global reanalysis 2, 4x daily :

Average global surface temperature from January 1st to June 30th 2014

picture.php


A detail of the last week in that interval.

picture.php


A little exercise: The low is near 18Z and the high near 6Z, any ideas why?
 
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@lomiller: Quite the contrary, global temperature is responding to the flux of energy in any particular second and sending almost all back into space in a 12 hours average.

Not relevant. The day/night swing in insolation is a lot larger and is faster than the response time of the oceans.

Like I said, do the math. Calculate how much additional energy the earth receives from being closer to the Sun for part of the year compare it to how much energy it takes to warm 7 million km^3 water by 0.1 degree.

And, as pointed out previously, daily and yearly swings are not relevant climatologicaly anyway.
 
Like I said, do the math. Calculate how much additional energy the earth receives from being closer to the Sun for part of the year compare it to how much energy it takes to warm 7 million km^3 water by 0.1 degree.

You don't get it -and probably can't-. It's irrelevant "how much additional energy the earth receives from being closer to the Sun for part of the year". The planet gets rid of it on the fly ... or would, if not because of anthropogenic emissions and the imbalance they set. The "the planet gets rid of it on the fly no matter TSI changes a lot" is what knocks over the notion of "the Sun did it".

Those variations illustrate both the fact that the Sun variations in that TSI@1UA that most of you love are irrelevant no only to prove that "the Sun did it" like the denialist crowd like to think, but also secondary to prove "the Sun didn't do it" though warmers repeat it like the gosphel thinking it's the silver bullet. Those variations prove also the most important fact: the planet gets rid of "all" energy it gets from the Sun quickly, and that "all" hides and imbalance nowadays mostly the product of human and not natural factors. One would have to be an imbecile to think it meant anything else.

So stop trying to say "don't talk B because is a" when I'm clearly talking "it's A". But I never had much hope with warmers. These warmer creatures together with denialists are both sides of the same counterfeit coin: they have to turn everything into proof of their advocacy and evidence of their own rightness. The fact that science supports warmers doesn't make their hearts less turbid.

I learnt that the hard way some years ago commenting in skepticalscience. Some modelization was presented to show how a Medieval warm period and a green Greenland were possible. The model output compared gridded temperatures as anomalies departing from 1960-1990 or 1970-2000 normals. I commented it was a mistake, they should have compared it with normals before the current AGW became evident so the "warm period" would show clearer as "warm", maybe using reconstructed normals around 1900 or 1920. I was attacked by a pack of wolves, including one of the authors in skepticalscience, accusing me of being a denialist who intended to taint their work with false accusations and, you know, all the bile that bad people -either denialists or warmers- are capable of.

Of course, my previous contributions (as those what followed in months to come) had shown them that I wasn't a denialist. The fact that what I had proposed made the warm periods more evident and not less evident didn't matter to them either. And of course, some of them finally realized but nobody apologized because neurotics don't do that, it's one symptom of their illness. I stop contributing to the comment section of skepticalscience when they finally applied a sane policy of blocking new comments from denialist energizer bunnies until they had replied valid questions they have been asked in previous verbal quarrels.

I have no hopes for something like that here, so my actions in the last weeks should be seen as the start of my process of moving to "more fertile lands" by proving and because of proving the patrons here can't provide what the institution refuses to provide.
 
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You don't get it -and probably can't-. It's irrelevant "how much additional energy the earth receives from being closer to the Sun for part of the year". The planet gets rid of it on the fly ... or would, if not because of anthropogenic emissions and the imbalance they set.
Outgoing energy flux is a function of temperature. It doesn’t increase until temperature rises. Globally, the oceans moderate any rise in temperature and therefore must warm up before outgoing IR flux can increase.

Perhaps in some local scenarios more insolation can lead to more outgoing IR very quickly but as other have already pointed out this is only relevant to local weather not global climate. Climatologically speaking you can’t “get rid of this extra energy on the fly”, rather this extra energy builds up in the oceans and only after ocean temperatures increase can global surface temperatures increase beyond what normally occurs from internal variation.

The "the planet gets rid of it on the fly no matter TSI changes a lot" is what knocks over the notion of "the Sun did it".

In cases where the planet can actually get rid of TSI changes on the fly there are very real temperature increases and the Sun really did do it.


Climatologically, however, the oceans have to warm before average global temperatures can increase and this requires energy. Observed changes in the Sun over a year or a decade or even the last 5 decades are too small to supply the energy required to warm the oceans and therefore these changes cannot significantly alter global temperatures.
 
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http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_t...4_is_the_warmest_three_month_period_ever.html'

New data released Monday shows humanity has just unlocked another achievement in the race to cook the planet: The last three months were collectively the warmest ever experienced since record-keeping began in the late 1800s.

The Japan Meteorological Agency said June 2014 was the warmest June globally since at least 1891, when its dataset begins. This follows May 2014, which was the warmest May globally on record, which follows April 2014, which was the warmest April globally on record.

Taken as a whole, the just-finished three-month period was about 0.68 degrees Celsius (1.22 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 20th-century average. That may not sound like much, but the added warmth has been enough to provide a nudge to a litany of weather and climate events worldwide. Arctic sea ice is trending near record lows for this time of year, abnormally warm ocean water helped spawn the earliest hurricane ever recorded to make landfall in North Carolina, and a rash of heat waves have plagued cities from India to California to the Middle East. In addition to the relentless push by human-caused global warming, this year’s extra heat comes in part because of a building El Niño emerging in the Pacific.

<SNIP>
 
Outgoing energy flux is a function of temperature. It doesn’t increase until temperature rises.

I'm going to reply in very small chunks -perhaps not as small as needed- because it seems that the moment I depict the picture as a whole most of it is ignored and crumbs of it are taken into wild stretches, sometimes with extremely bad faith.

What you say is partially true -I'm not going into details, including what is lacking there to complete the picture nor when those parts are not 100% true- but there are elements to test it if it stands alone and most importantly, if it suffices to describe some phenomena:

The daily high temperature at every point usually happens -unless quickly changing local weather conditions command otherwise- after local noon -forget the time zone-, generally one hour, hour and a half or so in dry places with surfaces with high albedo, later, depending on the humidity at different pressure levels, and a little bit depending on albedo tending to 0 and special conditions of the ground. In downtown Big Dumb Metropolis, with all the dry artificial rocky and corrugated land, you may experience the date's high even at 5 p.m. if the area is wet enough. But whatever the situation temperatures start to drop and continue to drop through a very important geographic and climatological feature called "night" until the date's low temperature is reached some time before or a little after sunrise.

There are in this a lot of variations: air streams transport energy gotten elsewhere so you have other typical patterns for coastal locations or places with usual strong wind conditions. We could discuss all the details elsewhere.

The important bit in this is showing that energy gained is energy to be lost almost completely -about half the days you lose more energy than that you get from the Sun and airstreams- not only in a 24 hour cycle but in a shorter cycle. Your statement "Outgoing energy flux is a function of temperature. It doesn’t increase until temperature rises" is completed by "and it doesn't decrease until temperature falls". The first part is valid, for Suchaplaceville on March 22nd, from 6 a.m to 3 p.m, and the second part is valid from 3 p.m to 6 a.m, next morning.

The planet as a whole, with its different regions and time zones, averages a temperature that changes a little bit mostly because of the sum of all weather conditions around the whole globe. For instance, for the last 10 days of last June, these are the average 2-m temperatures of the whole planet:

jun-21|15.897°C
jun-22|15.966°C
jun-23|15.970°C
jun-24|15.931°C
jun-25|15.853°C
jun-26|15.843°C
jun-27|15.870°C
jun-28|15.876°C
jun-29|15.855°C
jun-30|15.852°C
An interesting period to watch as TSI is dropping very gently those days towards its yearly minimum on July 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th depending on minuscule variations usually depicted as TSI@1UA, while the distribution of that solar radiation also changes gently because we are so close to the solstice.

Anyone interested can do the math and take the maximum daily change of 0.078°C and apply it to the atmosphere, the first metre of soils and the first 15 metres of ocean and compare it with the daily energy budget of the planet. I promise your conclusion will be amazing. If any of you would like to do it but you are no sure about how, don't hesitate in asking here. Not the exact value but an order of magnitude is what we'd need to get.

Globally, the oceans moderate any rise in temperature and therefore must warm up before outgoing IR flux can increase.

Intuition tells you this, and you are not wrong for doing that, but take a look to the map of outgoing longwave radiation for yesterday (the beauty of this is you can do it any day you read this post) and tell me if you can spot any recognizable boundary between oceans and dry land radiating back into space. We can discuss later the differences between OLR top of the atmosphere, OLR surface level or even OLR prad level, say 660 hPa, for instance . I left to the reader the task of identifying which OLR is depicted in all the figures in this NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Science Division webpage.

I got a few hundred figures to illustrate this and many related subjects, but there are situations regarding that: some are quick dirty plots made in a rush as part of our analysis, some are good but are old and/or made by students of mine or even students of other professors some time ago, so I would have to track former students and ask their permission or draw figures from scratch myself. That is not going to happen, at least, not a the pace explanations require.

Lomiller, I'll continue replying your last post and part of a previous post of yours as time allows me.
 
Speaking of outgoing longwave radiation, this question originally made on last December 22nd and addressed to A. Martin was left unanswered. I think that enough time has passed to allow "the normal crowd" to reply this easy and important matter.

This is the outgoing longwave radiation for yesterday, December 21st (click on for a larger version)



Look carefully the region between 75N and 90N and appreciate how about a half of it -a tiny little bit less than a half- radiated more than 180 W/m2, with regions where the figure was even above 220 W/m2.

Now look carefully at the region between 75S and 90S and appreciate how about a half of it -a not so tiny bit less than a half- radiated more that 180W/m2 with no region radiating more than 220.

Got the facts?

As yesterday was the longest day in the year -in the hemisphere that matters the most regarding the planet's energy budget- would you care to explain to me and others why did the Antarctic region radiate about the same -a bit less indeed- than its Arctic counterpart provided yesterday was a 24-hour night in the Arctic and a 24-hour day -with the sun up to 38.5° above the horizon at midday- in the Antarctic region? Where does all that heat in the North come from?

Before making any wrong speculation, take a look to the anomalies in OLR for yesterday (again, click on the image for a larger version and to see how I'm roasting here now):



so, as you can surely appreciate, the Antarctic is in "business as normal" while the Arctic is radiating way above the normal. Again, why is that so? I assure you in the end this will relate with those funny, rioting, nice polar bears you cared to mention.

I hope other eager newcomers like Jules, Arnold et al will also dive in to reply these questions. If not -in a few days- I'll invite the normal crowd to reply.

I'm gonna think other interesting questions for some other nice visitors who are eager to engage in debate, no matter who -the feistier(livelier), the merrier-.
 
For curious people: a figure containing global average temperatures during 1998. There are 1460 points because values are taken each 6 hours, but a 24-hour running average is taken to avoid those systematic daily peak values.



February 1998 is so far the "hottest" month on record (in terms of temperature anomalies). The image shows higher temperatures at the beginning of the year and lower temperatures towards the end of the year (February and December have similar global mean temperature in terms of climate normals). In 1998 ended the worst Niño in at least 70 years and started the second worst and longest Niña in record.
 
Perhaps in some local scenarios more insolation can lead to more outgoing IR very quickly but as other have already pointed out this is only relevant to local weather not global climate. Climatologically speaking you can’t “get rid of this extra energy on the fly”, ...

What I always said is the "planet gets rid of almost all the energy on the fly". You fix your vision around the "extra" energy, which is irrelevant to falsify the denialist meme "the Sun did it!". As I said innumerable times, even in recent days, there's presently an imbalance caused by greenhouse gases and a little difference between energy in/energy out is captured mostly as ocean heat. I don't remember exactly nor I estimated it recently, but as daily balances some 55% of days the planet gains energy and some 45% it loses it. That global balance is not directly related with global temperatures -I'm stating the obvious because now I'm afraid of attacks with new false arguments created by twisting my words-, and most importantly, new counter-intuitive results emerge when you analyse the upwards and downwards temperature trend each year.

... rather this extra energy builds up in the oceans and only after ocean temperatures increase can global surface temperatures increase beyond what normally occurs from internal variation.

Actually you are by definition denying the existence of greenhouse gases. I know that's not your idea but you are not aware of the consequences of your phrase: no energy builds up in the oceans unless the atmosphere acts as a thicker blanket, hence the surface temperatures increased before the extra heat builds up.

It seems you were thinking in a feedback when you wrote that paragraph. Of course both your paragraph and mine oversimplify the problem. I love discussing how much energy takes the ocean directly from the Sun, and how deep that energy reaches -a lot of denialist poppycock has been generated around this particular subject-. We also can analyse how smoothly ocean temperatures vary along the seasons and how the daily temperature oscillation is really minor (but still happens as "the planet gets rid of almost all the [amount of] energy on the fly" considering "the fly" being a moving process that takes up to a couple of days locally but it's really happening as a global average. Maybe the red text will help to contextualize that phrase.
 
In cases where the planet can actually get rid of TSI changes on the fly there are very real temperature increases and the Sun really did do it.

Sorry, but to me your post turns confusing from this paragraph forwards. There are non sequiturs there, apparently. It'd make sense to enumerate which exact cases "the planet can actually get rid of TSI changes on the fly" in your opinion and how "the Sun really did do it".

To me, there are non sequiturs in that phrase as the planet actually gets rid of TSI -no matter it changes and how it does it- on the fly and it increases or decreases its average and local temperatures whatever necessary for it to get rid of all of it -except the small part associated with long term global warming/climate change- on the fly. "And the Sun really did do it" plays a bogus role here. The sun is the ultimate and pretty fixed -for almost every practical purpose and with TSI@1UA showing how irrelevant it is considering otherwise- source of energy for the Earth to have a climate and not being a lifeless inert frozen chunk. That said, it's the Keplerian orbit of the Earth, the tilted axis, the continental configuration, the vast oceans and a extremely long etcetera what makes the climate what it is, AGW and all. Milankovitch cycles, nitrous oxide from leguminosae and dirty humans are just a few items in that extremely long etcetera.

Climatologically, however, the oceans have to warm before average global temperatures can increase and this requires energy. Observed changes in the Sun over a year or a decade or even the last 5 decades are too small to supply the energy required to warm the oceans and therefore these changes cannot significantly alter global temperatures.

That we'd agree provided the "the oceans have to warm before ..." has an adequate replacement and by these "observed changes in the Sun" we make clear it involves the Sun as the emitter -trough that standardized but not real TSI@1AU- and not the Earth as the receiver, as TSI changes a lot (from 3 to 25% through the curse of one year according to M. cycles, if my memory doesn't fail). TSI would change almost exactly the same lot were the Sun as a source of radiation really a fixed one to the thousand digit, along the ages.
 
Well-estimated global surface warming in climate projections selected for ENSO phase
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2310.html

The question of how climate model projections have tracked the actual evolution of global mean surface air temperature is important in establishing the credibility of their projections. Some studies and the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report suggest that the recent 15-year period (1998–2012) provides evidence that models are overestimating current temperature evolution. Such comparisons are not evidence against model trends because they represent only one realization where the decadal natural variability component of the model climate is generally not in phase with observations. We present a more appropriate test of models where only those models with natural variability (represented by El Niño/Southern Oscillation) largely in phase with observations are selected from multi-model ensembles for comparison with observations. These tests show that climate models have provided good estimates of 15-year trends, including for recent periods and for Pacific spatial trend patterns.
More at http://www.shapingtomorrowsworld.org/lewandowskyCMIP5.html

Upshot is, the models are good and the mythical Pause is an artefact of the 21stCE ENSO pattern. Two of the last bastions of AGW denial shot to rubble. With the No Consensus Line lost already they're going to have to fall back on Antarctica.
 
NOAA>NCDC also confirms like JMA that last June was the warmest June on record.

It also confirms like UEA>CRU that last June was the warmest month on record when ocean temperatures are considered.

The only unbroken record in this "pause" continue to be global and land temperatures for February 1998.

ONI values up to +2.4 during previous months in 1998 and negative values this year, I think it explains it all.
 
The sun is the ultimate and pretty fixed -for almost every practical purpose and with TSI@1UA showing how irrelevant it is considering otherwise- source of energy for the Earth to have a climate and not being a lifeless inert frozen chunk.
Just a minute don't be too sure you understand the Sun and it's connection with the Earth ...

Suddenly, the sun is eerily quiet: Where did the sunspots go?July 21, 2014
So what's going on here? Is the "All Quiet Event" as solar physicist Tony Phillips dubbed it, a big deal, or not?

"It is weird, but it's not super weird," said Phillips, who writes about solar activity on his web site SpaceWeather.com. "To have a spotless day during solar maximum is odd, but then again, this solar maximum we are in has been very wimpy."

Phillips notes that this is the weakest solar maximum to have been observed in the space age, and it is shaking out to be the weakest one in the past 100 years, so the spotless day was not so totally out of left field.

"It all underlines that solar physicists really don't know what the heck is happening on the sun," Phillips said. "We just don't know how to predict the sun, that is the take away message of this event."

Yes, our variable star seems to control a lot more than you may think and we have no influence on it at all :eek:
S0 News July 22, 2014 | Blows to Mainstream Science

Upshot is, the models are good and the mythical Pause is an artefact of the 21stCE ENSO pattern.

Nope, the models are bad and don't predict the observations. The Pause is real, who says so? ... Lovejoy in his recent paper (pdf below) trying to explain away that very Pause that NONE of the models saw coming.

Return periods of global climate fluctuations and the pause
http://www.physics.mcgill.ca/~gang/...weprint/Anthropause.GRL.final.13.6.14bbis.pdf

Abstract:
~snip~
In this paper, this method is extended to the determination of event return times.Over the period 1880-2013,the largest 32 year event is expected to be 0.47K, effectively explaining the postwar cooling (amplitude 0.42 - 0.47K). Similarly, the “pause” since 1998 (0.28- 0.37K) has a return period of 20-50 years (not so unusual). It is nearly cancelled by the pre-pause warming event (1992-1998,return period 30-40 years); the pause is no more than natural variability.

Conclusions
~snip~
We may still be battling the climate skeptic arguments that the models are untrustworthy and that the variability is mostly natural in origin. To be fully convincing, GCM-free approaches are needed: we must quantify the natural variability and reject the hypothesis that the warming is no more than a giant century scale fluctuation.

If he's using natural variability to explain the Pause then why not go ALL the way and use natural variability to explain the warming in the latter part of the 20th century ... we don't need the tiny anthropomorphic bit ... Right? ;)

The Sun just won't conform to warmist theories on Global Warming / Climate Change ... tragic isn't it! :rolleyes:

Satellite data shows cooling trend from 1998 to the present ... and the cooling trend is being forecast to continue by skeptics in a New Little Ice Age ... we should prepare now ... why take the chance?
 
Just a minute don't be too sure you understand the Sun and it's connection with the Earth ...

Suddenly, the sun is eerily quiet: Where did the sunspots go?July 21, 2014


Yes, our variable star seems to control a lot more than you may think and we have no influence on it at all :eek:
S0 News July 22, 2014 | Blows to Mainstream Science

More poppycock, Haig?

Yet you couldn't manage to reply why total solar irradiance varies so wildly through the year yet the global temperatures go the other way.

And you are trying to sell an inconsequential day with 10.7 cm flux of 90 sfu towards the beginning of the weak phase of a solar cycle as if indicates something important. Cut the tosh, Haig!

Your solar adoration is born from you suppressing everything that's important for the Earth's climate, that's why you're fixed in Sun's little inconstancies instead of its largely proved ability to hold state along the ages.
 
Satellite data shows cooling trend from 1998 to the present ... and the cooling trend is being forecast to continue by skeptics in a New Little Ice Age ... we should prepare now ... why take the chance?

Show us you can access any validation or analysis of MSU weighting functions. Then we can start to talk of your figures.

And you didn't read your other link. It shows.

In your bunch of miscellaneous links I see no other thing than your epistemological hedonism looking for something to excite your sense of wonder.
 
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