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Global warming discussion III

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I understand and agree. But you may consider that those ways to deal with the subject even in the ARs are highly influenced in style and emphasized content by the way denialists the like of Haig's inspirators dealt with the subject. Also, the ARs are not to state the obvious, to teach the masses nor stoop at denialists level, and denialists really fail at the very obvious in this subject. When you or others stick to the ARs and start some abstract hunting using Google with heavy bias toward the "shiny chunk of text" that appears to be the silver bullet, the cross or the string of garlic, you are perpetuating the same failed approach.

Also, I ignored Milankovitch cycles, first, because nothing really important has happened or is going to happen in the past or future century because of those; second, because its mention in the my quote taken from the website of Willson's employers is at best an oversimplification, if not an error: it fails to say that had been the axial precession half cycle behind we'd experience a very different planet with the same TSI.

Basically every warmer, denialist and everyone in the middle have to learn how the planet works. A figure showing daily TSI values with all its "variations" produces just a extremely thin and blurry curve when plotted like this sea ice extent. You would need a figure of some 5,000 pixels by 5,000 pixels and one-pixel thick curves to perceive it. That is the extent of the negligibility of the solar contribution to our present climate change (and the "up to 10% contribution to GW at most" many here -you, I don't remember- talked in discussions 4 or 5 years ago was a concession of AR3 to the old denialist propaganda, and it's no longer valid for the very same weakening of solar cycles that the new generation of denialists have being selling as a possible harbinger of a new little ice age).

But the fact that you may google and google and not find that plot doesn't mean it is not fundamental knowledge. Have you ever seen the image of an elliptic orbit in the ARs? It's also fundamental knowledge that the average temperature of the whole planet varies a lot along the year and produces a plot that may be a little bit blurry but it isn't thin at all. If you choose a shade from blues to reds through purples to represent the monthly values for year 1900 (pure blue) to 2013 (pure red), you find those curves showing warming clearly. You won't easily find this figure either. If you compare both figures "you won't find" you see that the planet warms when TSI falls and the opposite, meaning that there's much more than the Sun as King Star to determine the Earth climate and the negligible variations of TSI@1UA explain only minutia and not the big picture of climate change. TSI@1UA shows that real scientists -not the lame definition around the Oregon petition- have left no stone unturned to explain how it really works and mainly before pointing fingers towards their own species.


i don't think TSI1AU nor TSItrue earth explain AGW in any way. the increased CO2 levels however do. and i never said anything other than that ever, not even back in my early days here when i was a conspiracy nutter, AGW was never something i denied.

maybe i am wrong about TSI true earth not explaining cllimate change as you seem to say. but you also do not explain it. nor have i ever seen any paper or report on AGW trying to go that way. i don't really understand what you try to say.
why don't you just try to explain it in simple words so that a layman like me, also can understand it?

i had less trouble understanding the last 2 cloud papers (and those are like chinese to me) i read than understanding your posts.
 
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Of course you and I know that paleoclimate and Milankovitch cycles are included in ARs. You may have showed figure 5.3 from AR5/WG1. But you knew my question was aimed -to give a more strict context- to elliptic orbits and TSI in the context of warming in the industrial era and the next few centuries. But you are right: I should stop judging you as having personal qualities different than those of denialists, and be more precise.
 
Of course you and I know that paleoclimate and Milankovitch cycles are included in ARs. You may have showed figure 5.3 from AR5/WG1. But you knew my question was aimed -to give a more strict context- to elliptic orbits and TSI in the context of warming in the industrial era and the next few centuries. But you are right: I should stop judging you as having personal qualities different than those of denialists, and be more precise.

No i didn't, i don't understand your posts. they seem so strange to me.

and i absolutely do not understand what the eccentric orbit has to do with AGW.
and you seem to not want to be the E in JREF. i have asked you repeatedly to explain it. and you didn't.

when you ignore the milankovitch cycles (and you do that rightly so in the context of AGW) then this eccentricity will not change, it remains the same each year. so i do not see what influence it has on AGW.
please explain it to me. i have no problem with being shown wrong and will always admit when i am shown wrong. but just vaguely say i am wrong and compare me with deniers will not convince me. evidence would.
 
i don't think TSI1AU nor TSItrue earth explain AGW in any way. the increased CO2 levels however do. and i never said anything other than that ever, not even back in my early days here when i was a conspiracy nutter, AGW was never something i denied.

maybe i am wrong about TSI true earth not explaining cllimate change as you seem to say. but you also do not explain it. nor have i ever seen any paper or report on AGW trying to go that way. i don't really understand what you try to say.
why don't you just try to explain it in simple words so that a layman like me, also can understand it?

i had less trouble understanding the last 2 cloud papers (and those are like chinese to me) i read than understanding your posts.

TSI doesn't explain climate change. On the contrary, TSI easily excludes itself as a recent climate change cause when explained properly to a laypeople audience and that way it washes out denialist argumentations. That's what I've being saying from the very beginning, more than a month ago, expecting the likes of Haig to pop up again as they finally did. Your debate with Haig is not that, on the contrary, by looking into the wrong part of it, it fosters the notion denialists might be partially right.

And if I were you I wouldn't indulge the notion of understanding 50% of a topic by understanding 50% of its elements. Clearly it isn't working for you or anyone. Maybe you have never done that in an educational institution that taught it to your mates -or yourself- the hard way by grading you with the Swiss equivalent of 50% an Usian F.
 
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TSI doesn't explain climate change. On the contrary, TSI easily excludes itself as a recent climate change cause when explained properly to a laypeople audience and that way it washes out denialist argumentations. That's what I've being saying from the very beginning, more than a month ago, expecting the likes of Haig to pop up again as they finally did. Your debate with Haig is not that, on the contrary, by looking into the wrong part of it, it fosters the notion denialists might be partially right.

And if I were you I wouldn't indulge the notion of understanding 50% of a topic by understanding 50% of its elements. Clearly it isn't working for you or anyone. Maybe you have never done that in an educational institution that taught it to your mates -or yourself- the hard way by grading you with the Swiss equivalent of 50% an Usian F.

bold part: i don't see how i looked in the wrong part. pls explain.

hilited part: what? i don't understand what you try to say.
 
No i didn't, i don't understand your posts. they seem so strange to me.

and i absolutely do not understand what the eccentric orbit has to do with AGW.

...

All what you seem to inquire of me, already done in the very posts you quoted, and done repeatedly day after day. So go back and quote again my posts telling what you don't understand and I will oblige. Chose the bite-size you judge necessary (and don't complain if you fail to do so). Be aware that today you quoted a post of mine twice and told it doesn't contain what it does contain.
 
Can somebody that undertstands alec's explenations , explain them to me pls? I honestly don't get it.
 
bold part: i don't see how i looked in the wrong part. pls explain.

Already done repeatedly, and done again today. Go back and start to ask about every individual part you don't understand. I've already warned you about this one or two days ago.

hilited part: what? i don't understand what you try to say.

Much related with the previous paragraph: you lack the intellectual discipline. You find papers about clouds -or anything else- easier just because you are selecting a few bits you can understand, bits that go along with your preconceptions, or are you to tell me that you read papers thoroughly and put yourself in test no matter the paper is not related what with you expected in the very beginning or the paper is pointing to a conclusion different than what you had in mind?
 
Already done repeatedly, and done again today. Go back and start to ask about every individual part you don't understand. I've already warned you about this one or two days ago.

i am not even sure what parts of your posts tried to explain it.
but im sure others that did understand your explenation will explain it in a normal language to me.

Much related with the previous paragraph: you lack the intellectual discipline. You find papers about clouds -or anything else- easier just because you are selecting a few bits you can understand, bits that go along with your preconceptions, or are you to tell me that you read papers thoroughly and put yourself in test no matter the paper is not related what with you expected in the very beginning or the paper is pointing to a conclusion different than what you had in mind?

what the heck are you talking about. i broght up cloud paper because i found them the hardest to understand of all papers i have ever read. and in both cases i had to ask what they meant with several parts. and i wrote an email to J. Herman and H. Lambert and simply asked them. they answered and explained it pretty detailed in laymen terms. i then understood it.
and i have no preconceptions about clouds. but real experts are able to explain very complicated things to me in laymen terms so that i easely understand what they say. you are not able to do that.
 
i am not even sure what parts of your posts tried to explain it.
but im sure others that did understand your explenation will explain it in a normal language to me.



what the heck are you talking about. i broght up cloud paper because i found them the hardest to understand of all papers i have ever read. and in both cases i had to ask what they meant with several parts. and i wrote an email to J. Herman and H. Lambert and simply asked them. they answered and explained it pretty detailed in laymen terms. i then understood it.
and i have no preconceptions about clouds. but real experts are able to explain very complicated things to me in laymen terms so that i easely understand what they say. you are not able to do that.

So, there are times you ask exactly about what you don't understand instead of saying "I don't understand you" or "i dont know what your talking about" and expect everything run again and again for you until you understand it. Also, there are times you do try to.

When you find that point to meet with me, you'll understand this too. Up this very moment my state of knowledge is that you and others chose a very wrong strategy and you don't understand why so you don't know if that is right or wrong.
 
i don't understand what the eccentricity of the orbit has to do with AGW.
the eccentricity stays the same, it changes only very very slowly do to the gravitational influence of the other planets.
 
Since the distance change is in the order of 2.5 million kilometers the difference in incident power is significant, coupled with the earths tilt will result in changes to the energy distribution within the system too. At the moment the peak insolation is happening in the southern summer, with high absorbtion in the southern oceans. In terms of climate modelling it should be part of the mechanism that distributes energy. Over the duration of the model run it shouldn't have an affect as a driver of global warming as such.
 
Since the distance change is in the order of 2.5 million kilometers the difference in incident power is significant, coupled with the earths tilt will result in changes to the energy distribution within the system too. At the moment the peak insolation is happening in the southern summer, with high absorbtion in the southern oceans. In terms of climate modelling it should be part of the mechanism that distributes energy. Over the duration of the model run it shouldn't have an affect as a driver of global warming as such.

yeah, that is how i understand it too. and the hilited part is why i don't understand why it is relevant to AGW.
And i have done a huge amount of reading on the topic of AGW. and never seen anyone pointing out this alleged relevance to AGW.
 
Since the distance change is in the order of 2.5 million kilometers the difference in incident power is significant, coupled with the earths tilt will result in changes to the energy distribution within the system too. At the moment the peak insolation is happening in the southern summer, with high absorbtion in the southern oceans. In terms of climate modelling it should be part of the mechanism that distributes energy. Over the duration of the model run it shouldn't have an affect as a driver of global warming as such.

It’s likely more a case of the changes though the year not lasting long enough than how big they are. Global temperature is ultimately responding to the amount of energy in the system not the energy flux at a given time. It comes down to how much energy builds up in the 3 months TSI is “high” vs how much energy it takes to warm the atmosphere and top of ocean.
 
@Mikemcc: Among other elements as well. But I can assure you no model applies TSI@1UA as the energy input (it can take TSI@1UA and apply the orbital factors to get the correct power density rate).

@DC: Eccentricity shows clearly that the Sun minute variations showed by the standardized TSI@1UA have no particular bearing in the process we have come to know as AGW. The real variations are much more important (about 7%) and that alone call for a change in the Earth temperature of about 7°F. So what happens is that the Earth gets its maximum TSI in its perihelion (Southern Summer) and then that TSI drops almost 7% when the Earth reaches its aphelion (Northern Summer) so global temperatures should go down 7°F just based of its """"blackbodiness + albedoness"""". The fact that real global temperatures go up almost 7°F calls for an explanation of those 13-14°F (remember, the Sun fails every year to get us hot Northern Summers yet Northern Summers are hot, take that!), so the Sun is pretty lame to stamp its TSI into the global temperature cycle every year, and lamer is to drive climate change because of the negligible changes of its TSI@1UA. Of course any change will have some sort of repercussion over the planet climate and even hints of the solar cycle can be found in the Earth climate, but if any denialist want to include the sun as a probable cause of current climate change they have to move quickly into extreme ultraviolet of make a mash-up with cosmic rays.

Arguing that the contemporary climate change is because of the Sun is ridiculous. Using TSI@1UA only informs, by the values represented, the negligibility of it to the actual way the planet works. Remember, there are 13°F that are not explained neither by the Sun nor by the Earth's atmosphere, but just by the Earth "geography". Any attempt to get correlations from TSI@1UA or derived correlated products like sunspot number or A-K index fails miserably when they try to correlate them with Earth temperatures. We get a much much much better correlation by just claiming that because a delay of about 6 months global temperatures are driven by TSI directly. Claims made by denialists are that ridiculous, that we can make a much better claim along their same lines, justify it better and yet discard it as ridiculous in the end.

@lomiller: Quite the contrary, global temperature is responding to the flux of energy in any particular second and sending almost all back into space in a 12 hours average. That's why the average global temperature not only varies with the date, on one hand, and with the particular daily weather, on the other hand. It also varies with GMT time. And that's why greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic emissions are the dominant cause of present changes.

The energy that "builds up" will be responsible of the transient effects of climate change and energy doesn't build up easily in the oceans. Current imbalances call for a rise in the order of one degree Celsius per century if the ocean temperatures are averaged.
 
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So what happens is that the Earth gets its maximum TSI in its perihelion (Southern Summer) and then that TSI drops almost 7% when the Earth reaches its aphelion (Northern Summer) so global temperatures should go down 7°F just based of its """"blackbodiness + albedoness"""".

but that happens every year, i don't see the relevance to AGW.
 
"People die all the time, so death is not important"



You have abused of this meme way too much. You seem to have not even identified what the topic is. Reread what you need to and only ask me very specific questions.

ok, now i am convinced that you are wrong and just can't admit it.

orbital eccentricity is totally irrelevant to AGW.
 
ok, now i am convinced that you are wrong and just can't admit it.

orbital eccentricity is totally irrelevant to AGW.

:dl:

Circularity noted: "that is irrelevant, i don't understand, hence it's irrelevant".

Another well deserved

:dl:

It was irrelevant to AGW together with Sun variations from the very beginning. Just one wipes out the other and you couldn't get it.

You had multiple opportunities to notice it. You had multiple opportunities to ask about. Now you only have

:dl:

bye bye
 
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