Global warming discussion III

[Reality Check]

It Is Difficult to Trust What You Hear

It Is Difficult To Trust What You Are Determined to Remain Ignorant About, Haig . This incudes the contents of what you are linking to!
Paranoia about funding sources does not change the science.
An opinion piece on Fox News lying does not help ("By the time the report was finished, however, it hadn’t warmed for 17 years" is a lie)
Really stupid reporters and bloggers whining about the need for temperature adjustments does not change the science.
The climategate non-event that paranoiac climate change deniers recycle every so often.
Another time with the idiocy of weather station readings should not be changed for changes in weather stations (Australian ones this time)!
Another time with the idiocy of weather station readings should not be changed for changes in weather stations (Paraguay ones this time)!


Willie Soon was "brought and paid for" by oil companies who do not want global warming !
Climate change skeptic accused of violating disclosure rules


Is the IPCC Government Approval Process Broken?

Before returning to the topic of today’s blog entry — the SPM process and outcome — I want to emphasize that the IPCC’s Working Group III “Technical Summary” and the underlying Working Group III report of 15 chapters were completely untouched by the government approval process of the Summary for Policymakers. So, the crucial IPCC products – the Technical Summary and the 15 chapters of WG 3 – retain their full scientific integrity, and they merit serious public attention. Now, back to the SPM process and outcome …

Has the U.N. Climate Panel Now Outlived Its Usefulness?

Some scientists are saying the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is overly conservative and fails to mention some of the most worrisome possible scenarios. The panel, they contend, is no longer fulfilling its mission of informing policy makers of the risks of global warming.

 

[Reality Check]

This video explains it a bit better and most of the links I posted recently are from it.

Sorry, Haig, but your previous linking to crank videos means that it is not worth while even looking at this video .
This is especially true since most of the links you have posted recently are climate change denier myths.

 

[Reality Check]

Would you have us believe AGW was the cause of ALL the past and future ICE AGES or even Little Ice Ages

No, Haig, we are not as ignorant as the people you have been linking to .
AGW did not cause past ICE AGES.
AGW will help to prevent the next ICE AGE if we continue as is for a few thousand years- that is what warming means!
AGW means that any Little Ice Age will have little effect as you were told 5 years ago.

 

[a_unique_person]

Do we need a new Category 6 for cyclones?

http://www.theage.com.au/environment...16-1m04qv.html

According to the New Zealand's MetService, satellites indicate Cyclone Pam reached mean wind speeds of 270 km/h, with gusts even higher as it passed over the Pacific island nation.
Low pressure at the eye of the storm, rated a category-5 "super cyclone", dipped as low as 890 hectopascals (hPa), said Emma Blades, a meteorologist with the service.Cyclone Pam was "certainly one of the biggest storms to occur in the South Pacific", Kevin Walsh, an associate professor at Melbourne University, said. "It's extremely rare for us to get tropical cyclones with central pressures in the South Pacific less than 900 hPa."

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology lists category-5 as its highest severity for a tropical cyclone. To warrant such a rating, maximum mean wind speeds must top 200 km/h with a central pressure of less than 930 hPA.
Based on the differences between category-3 and -4 cyclones, a category-6 cyclone would signal mean wind speeds of about 240 km/h or stronger, with a central pressure of less than 915 hPa. Cyclone Pam may have exceeded both measures.

 

[bit_pattern]

Apparently the climate deniers are Category 5 deniers now, too

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jennifer_Marohasy#Criticisms_of_BOM

 

[a_unique_person]

Apparently the climate deniers are Category 5 deniers now, too

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jennifer_Marohasy#Criticisms_of_BOM

Marohasy is just one Libertarian denier paid shill. She is relying on the reading of an instrument broke in the storm because the winds were so strong.

* Not all Libertarians are global warming deniers, but the IPA which represents them in is Australia is.

 

[aleCcowaN]

While Vanuatu jumped back a century... that Marohasy person is recycling the old mantra "all instruments are twisted ... the models fail". For her lot all the thermometers should have a thermal fuse that melts the moment it detects global warming.

JMA global temperatures are in and last month was the third hottest February on record, and this Northern Winter (DJF) the second hottest, 0.02°C behind 1998's.

That includes the abnormally cold/warm (delete as applicable, depending on your coast) season in the United States.

12-month running mean for Mar14-Feb15 was 0.30°C above the global mean for 1981-2010, and a few hundredths above its highest value for 1997, 1998 and 1999.

12-month running means are starting to break absolute records month after month, like it did from 1996 to 1998. Welcome to the next step of the "escalator".

 

[bit_pattern]

While Vanuatu jumped back a century... that Marohasy person is recycling the old mantra "all instruments are twisted ... the models fail". For her lot all the thermometers should have a thermal fuse that melts the moment it detects global warming.

I believe her "data" consists entirely of measurements from one station on the weaker side of the cyclone - at least I recall reading something to that effect in the media

 

[macdoc]

What doesn't she get about "highest wind gusts " - both highest and sustained will be on the side that the rotation matches the forward motion of the storm so is additive.

We;re facing that exact situation in two days with a renewed Cat 3 Cyclone headed to land just to the north of us. This has got to be one of the stranger tracks.



and it's far from over.

When Yasi hit here a couple years ago it took out the Cat 5 station on Willis Island.

Yasi was proposed as the first Cat 6 storm which includes size as well as windspeed.
It was near the size of the continental US and retained cyclone status 800 km inland.

Marohasy is an embarrassment....paid by vested interests and no climate science credentials

 

[aleCcowaN]

What doesn't she get about "highest wind gusts " - both highest and sustained will be on the side that the rotation matches the forward motion of the storm so is additive.

We;re facing that exact situation in two days with a renewed Cat 3 Cyclone headed to land just to the north of us. This has got to be one of the stranger tracks.



and it's far from over.

When Yasi hit here a couple years ago it took out the Cat 5 station on Willis Island.

Yasi was proposed as the first Cat 6 storm which includes size as well as windspeed.
It was near the size of the continental US and retained cyclone status 800 km inland.

Marohasy is an embarrassment....paid by vested interests and no climate science credentials

From a practical informational point of view, I use this source (valid for date and time of posting)

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/south-pacific/2015/Tropical-Cyclone-Nathan

Is it trustworthy?

Here (valid for date and time of posting) the remains of Pam look much more dangerous than Nathan.

 

[aleCcowaN]

I believe her "data" consists entirely of measurements from one station on the weaker side of the cyclone - at least I recall reading something to that effect in the media

I smell the old trick of "weather stations are the only ones to be trusted", "satellites have it wrong", "pressure doesn't correlate with wind gusts always", etc.

Hard yakka dealing with the whole denialist crowd in Australia. They continue to live in the eighties.

 

[bit_pattern]

^^ Ain't it the truth. Not just Aus - the whole Anglophone world is in thrall of neoliberal denial, I blame Rupert Murdoch for being the primary organ od disssemination.

I have more feelings about cyclones but I'm borracho and it's late!

 

[macdoc]

Pam is now an intense tropical low

http://blog.metservice.com/2015/03/cyclone-pam-chatham-islands-update-4pm-tuesday-17th-march/

Not an approaching Cat 2 cyclone about to spin up to a Category 3 I can see on the horizon.

CATEGORY 3 (severe tropical cyclone)
Some roof and structural damage. Some caravans destroyed. Power failures likely.
A Category 3 cyclone's strongest winds are VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with typical gusts over open flat land of 165 - 224 km/h.These winds correspond to the highest category on the Beaufort scale, Beaufort 12 (Hurricane).

Looks like the destructive winds will stay north of populated areas. Still gonna get wet and breezy....still could slam Cairns head on ....water is very warm over the reef...this slow moving and erratic.
Just not a big storm in size..but can spin up very quickly in intensity.

 

[bit_pattern]

One for the naesayers

http://www.newscientist.com/article...d-stall-in-carbon-emissions.html#.VQjMylVW-iw

THE link between economic growth and rising greenhouse gas emissions may have finally been broken. Last week, we learned that carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels failed to rise in 2014 – the first time that has happened without an economic downturn. Now we know why.

Although coal plant construction tripled globally after 2005, that boom is turning to bust. An analysis by CoalSwarm, a think tank supported by the Sierra Club and other US NGOs, has found that since 2010 hundreds of coal plant projects worldwide have been shelved or cancelled – with two abandoned for every one completed.

The amount of coal-fired power generating capacity is still increasing, but the rate of increase is down from a peak of 6.9 per cent to 2.7 per cent in 2013. "We don't have final numbers yet, but it looks like in 2014 growth in wind power capacity exceeded that in coal," says CoalSwarm's director Ted Nace. "The slowdown in CO2 is largely caused by a slowdown in power being generated by coal."

 

[aleCcowaN]

And/but Chinese sulphur emissions are projected this year to be 7% less than 2010's, so brace yourself for the time the cold spot in the Western Pacific warms again and the westerlies north of the area strengthen.

By the way, we're kinda experiencing a westerly wind burst now and there's a Kelvin wave in place, so ... according to Tisdale's (sweet irony!) ... maybe a strong El Niño is at the gates.

[you know, St. Patrick's Day is over, so tonight borracho is not an option]

 

[macdoc]

Tropical cyclone size controlled by relative sea-surface temperatures
Date:
March 17, 2015
Source:
Stony Brook University
Summary:
The size of tropical cyclones is controlled by their underlying sea-surface temperatures (SST) relative to the conditions of the mean SST within the surrounding tropical zone of the storms, researchers have found. These findings imply that under a warmer climate, the size of tropical cyclones (including hurricanes), are not based on the absolute value of SST alone.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/03/150317162146.htm

snip

"We know that tropical cyclone precipitation will be stronger when sea-surface temperatures are higher, but is not clear whether the stronger precipitation is associated with higher intensity rates or larger areas, or both," explained Dr. Zhang.
"Our study showed that if the sea-surface temperatures are uniformly higher around the cyclone region, the cyclone sizes will be similar to the affected tropical zone."

Cue Pam...

•••

Our wandering Nathan is now aimed at Cooktown as a Cat 4 - second high end storm in a year for the area and this one on the high tide
Last year was a Cat 5 but hit just north and was still a Cat 1 when it blew through here.
Much rain - not much else.

This one looks for a more direct hit. It's not a very populated area but still

CATEGORY 4 (severe tropical cyclone)
Significant roofing loss and structural damage. Many caravans destroyed and blown away. Dangerous airborne debris. Widespread power failures.
A Category 4 cyclone's strongest winds are VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with typical gusts over open flat land of 225 - 279 km/h.
These winds correspond to the highest category on the Beaufort scale, Beaufort 12 (Hurricane).

 

[aleCcowaN]

State of the Climate - Global Analysis - February

Summary: second highest for February, 0.82°C above the 20th century's average and 0.04 behind 1998's record.

I add:
12-month average Mar14-Feb15: 0.73°C above 20th century average and beating all the previous records, included every record during 1997-1998 (these ones, by a minimum of 0.05°C).

This, this, this and this, make me think we better start to say:

Long ago, by the time of the so-called pause, ...

 

[macdoc]

Astonishing anomaly...Pam power and wreaking havoc with the biome

 

[macdoc]

With cyclones in the news....excellent in depth bit about them from RealClimate.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Pam and Climate Change
Filed under: Climate Science Hurricanes — stefan @ 18 March 2015
Guest post by Kerry Emanuel

In the past 16 months, two exceptionally intense tropical cyclones, Haiyan and Pam, have struck the western Pacific with devastating effect. Haiyan may have had the highest wind speeds of any tropical cyclone on record, but we will never know for sure because we do a poor job estimating the intensity of storms that are not surveyed by aircraft. (Currently, only North Atlantic tropical cyclones are routinely reconnoitered by aircraft, and only if they threaten populated regions within a few days.) Pam’s analyzed intensity puts it within 10 knots of the most intense storms on record in the South Pacific, but here again this is within the error bars of satellite-derived intensity estimates.

Pam’s high intensity and terrible impact on Vanuatu have invariably raised the question of the possible effect of global warming on its characteristics. For example, Vanuatu’s President Baldwin Lonsdale blamed the disaster partly on climate change. Just as predictable is the backlash to the effect that no single event can be attributed to climate variations of any kind. What can we say about the effects of climate change on South Pacific tropical cyclones?

- See more at: http://www.realclimate.org/index.ph...-pam-and-climate-change/#sthash.xj5MkWAv.dpuf

 

[aleCcowaN]

Brace yourselves, the British are Kelvin wave is coming. El Niño got measles. Madden-Julian indexes look crazier than ever.