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Global warming discussion III

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aleCcowaN said:
Nice red for the recent westerly winds burst.
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I see you take the term "El-Nino Watch" literally ;).

I've just realised that it's the Madden-Julian Oscillation which is causing global warming and the MJO is driven by - the Sun! I've yet to work out the details but I'm absolutely convinced of it. See my up-coming piece at WattsUpMyButt (they're desperate for copy over there). :cool:
 
varwoche said:
Omg I love this! "Dr." Sircus is an "acupuncturist, doctor of oriental and pastoral medicine"!

No quantity of laughing dogs would do justice.
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Lol. I'm thinking I should click on Haig's links more often - there's clearly a lot of comedy goal buried within :p

ETA:

Our earth is losing heat even as its core bubbles its heat to the surface with more intensity. Of course when we have extreme cold somewhere else is experiencing extreme heat but the trend is clearly down to a cooler climate and longer harsher winters.
I am filling up my Sanctuary in Brazil with BioMats for each room to keep my guests warm on the cold nights but it never freezes in the interior highlands in the heart of South America so no one has heating in their homes down here. As long as the lights are working it is the most efficient way of keeping warm and healthy no matter how cold it gets.
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laughingdog.gif
 
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Can't make this **** up

There is no doubt, no matter what anyone says, that we as a race and as individuals will be severely challenged in the years ahead. Huge forces are at work and are moving. We are moving toward a collective destiny and most interestingly our present times have been prophesized by more than one source. Happy times are not here again yet people with spiritual anchors know that no matter what – it is time to be bright, intelligent and full of passion for life and service.
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If one thinks carefully one can see that cold is more of an immediate threat than low levels of radiation, which can kill over long periods of time, but cold can kill in minutes.
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I think they misspelled his name: Dr. Circus; first name Three-ring.

CapelDodger said:
I see you take the term "El-Nino Watch" literally ;).
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I'm wide awake like a Japanese at 3 a.m. after five mild increasingly stronger earthquakes. Browser macros and crons help a lot, though.

CapelDodger said:
I've just realised that it's the Madden-Julian Oscillation which is causing global warming and the MJO is driven by - the Sun! I've yet to work out the details but I'm absolutely convinced of it. See my up-coming piece at WattsUpMyButt (they're desperate for copy over there). :cool:
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Is there enough market for two Tisdales? But it could be real good and I will be able to read about you in Wikipedia. McIntyre's page is so cool. It makes Indiana Jones' pale.
 
aleCcowaN said:
I think they misspelled his name: Dr. Circus; first name Three-ring.
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Haig's going to have a hard time living that one down. Nice catch, varwoche.

I'm wide awake like a Japanese at 3 a.m. after five mild increasingly stronger earthquakes.
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Really? Those are the ones which get you. As a rule of thumb, two increases says grab the go-bag and head for the park. To hell with being called an alarmist.

Is there enough market for two Tisdales? But it could be real good and I will be able to read about you in Wikipedia. McIntyre's page is so cool. It makes Indiana Jones' pale.
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Watts will take any amount, and consistency is not an issue. A project for the longer evenings of the year, I think (they're getting shorter here). Then we'll see just what an old hippy on mushrooms can produce.
 
Where is Waldo "Da Pause"?

I use HadCRUT4 but, what the heck!

12-month running global temperature anomalies using data from NOAA (anomalies respect 20th century average. in °C)

picture.php
 
CapelDodger said:
It's the Lost Pause. It's days were numbered, and now we know what the number was, give or take.

Whatever it is, it'll confirm someone's theory of what causes Ice Ages - like the one we'll soon be plunging into, just you watch.
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speaking of pauses,...have I missed anything important?
 
CapelDodger said:
It's the Lost Pause. It's days were numbered, and now we know what the number was, give or take.

Whatever it is, it'll confirm someone's theory of what causes Ice Ages - like the one we'll soon be plunging into, just you watch.
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I think you mean glaciation phases of this ice age. Personally I don't know if we have left an ice age or not?:confused: How would someone know that? Is there a test? Or a CO2 level? Or a pattern we can compare? How exactly would one consider us out of an ice age and then how would one know we reentered one? Is it even possible to know on such a short timeframe?
 
The orbitals indicate we were drifting slowly towards a cooler climate regime.
We killed that.

Paleo charts are not fine grained but you can see here
http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/Ice_Age_Temperature_Rev.png

Ice cores show us near the top of the ranges - with gradual lead in to colder regimes and a very fast exit by comparison.

good article here
http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-sensitivity-advanced.htm

All gone by the wayside now.

Good read and will help your understanding

Human emissions of carbon dioxide will defer the next Ice Age, say scientists.

The last Ice Age ended about 11,500 years ago, and when the next one should begin has not been entirely clear.

Researchers used data on the Earth's orbit and other things to find the historical warm interglacial period that looks most like the current one.

In the journal Nature Geoscience, they write that the next Ice Age would begin within 1,500 years - but emissions have been so high that it will not.

"At current levels of CO2, even if emissions stopped now we'd probably have a long interglacial duration determined by whatever long-term processes could kick in and bring [atmospheric] CO2 down," said Luke Skinner from Cambridge University.

Dr Skinner's group - which also included scientists from University College London, the University of Florida and Norway's Bergen University - calculates that the atmospheric concentration of CO2 would have to fall below about 240 parts per million (ppm) before the glaciation could begin.
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http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-16439807

We are at 400 ppm and climbing...no ice age no matter what the sun is doing.
 
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Red Baron Farms said:
I think you mean glaciation phases of this ice age. Personally I don't know if we have left an ice age or not?:confused: How would someone know that? Is there a test? Or a CO2 level? Or a pattern we can compare? How exactly would one consider us out of an ice age and then how would one know we reentered one? Is it even possible to know on such a short timeframe?
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Depends upon your definition of an "ice age," according to some older definitions, as long as there are major year-round ice-caps anywhere on the planet, we are technically in an ice-age. Others, as you mention, refer to "ice ages" as times when glaciation expands below certain rather arbitrarily designated latitudes/altitudes. We currently estimate that we have already disrupted the Milankovitch cycles with respect to natural glaciation expansion. Whether this stretches beyond the disruption that will lead us to skip the increasing glaciation which should be well under way and peaking several 10s of millennia from now,...depends upon what we, as a species, do over the next century or two.

"A movable trigger: Fossil fuel CO2 and the onset of the next glaciation" - http://www.odlt.org/dcd/docs/archer.2005.trigger.pdf
glaciation
 
Red Baron Farms said:
I think you mean glaciation phases of this ice age.
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Since I was indulging in parody you'd have to ask the people I was parodying what they mean by Ice Age. It's not entirely clear whether New Ice Agers distinguish between glaciations and the Little Ice Age (or Dansgaard–Oeschger events, for that matter http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dansgaard–Oeschger_event). I think it goes without saying that I'm not a New Ice Ager myself.
 
CapelDodger said:
..., it goes without saying that I'm not a New Ice Ager myself.
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Capel, causally discloses his regular attendance of the New Ice Age Cabal (NIAC) conferences, with dismissive personal affiliation admission(dpaa).
 
bit_pattern said:
Well they sure know how to keep promises :eek:

[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/picture.php?albumid=1228&pictureid=9646[/qimg]
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Repurposed Advertising can sometimes be very useful, as demonstrated by the push-back surrounding big-tobacco.
 
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