Ed FiveThirtyEight GE Forecast

Ladewig said:
But isn't there a limit to how useful a "now-cast" can be?

I could say if the Bears played the Packers today, then there would be a 95% chance of the Bears winning. But the game is not going to be played today. The game won't be played until October 20.
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It is, at the very least, an early indication of the way polls are going.
 
Stacko said:
It's Clinton's election to lose.
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Agreed.
And I am planning on betting money on Trump losing.
But in the words of baseball manager, philosopher, and political analyst Yogi Berra, "it ain't over until it's over."
 
Stacko said:
It's more the fact that you can give those odds with a straight face. Polls plus is at 78.7% which is still really staggering this far out. It's Clinton's election to lose.
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The big issue that the Dems are going to have if things keep going this way, is the possibility of Voter Apathy.

They need to make sure that this election has the biggest turnout for Democrats ever, especially in those states where Democrats have always believed that they had no voice because it was so heavily Republican.

They need to make their supporters understand that they have a chance to make this election an unprecedented Democratic victory and that in doing so they will be able to help create a fairer and better USA for everyone.
 
PhantomWolf said:
The big issue that the Dems are going to have if things keep going this way, is the possibility of Voter Apathy.

They need to make sure that this election has the biggest turnout for Democrats ever, especially in those states where Democrats have always believed that they had no voice because it was so heavily Republican.

They need to make their supporters understand that they have a chance to make this election an unprecedented Democratic victory and that in doing so they will be able to help create a fairer and better USA for everyone.
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Although I'm an atheist I'd like to say Amen.
 
Bumping this up. 538 now has Hillary up over Trump by just a 54% to 46% margin. That is down sharply from around a month ago of ~ 90% to 10%. Trump hasn't stopped saying/tweeting stupid things, and reports continue rolling in about his shady business dealings and connections to Russia.
 
foophil said:
Bumping this up. 538 now has Hillary up over Trump by just a 54% to 46% margin. That is down sharply from around a month ago of ~ 90% to 10%. Trump hasn't stopped saying/tweeting stupid things, and reports continue rolling in about his shady business dealings and connections to Russia.
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Looks like today the gap has widened a bit. Hillary is over 60% in all 3 versions of the 538 polls.
 
The real stinker for the GOP is that in the 4-way their house polling group, Rasmussen shows a huge swing to Clinton from their previous poll.

Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein
39 | 44 | 8 | 2 -- Sep 20/21 1000 LV
42 | 41 | 7 | 2 -- Sep 26/28 1500 LB
+3 -3 -1 nc
 
I don't think there's any question that Trump's performance in the debate hurt him. He's in the position now of really needing to bounce back strongly in the second debate to have any realistic chance; if he gets owned again, it will be all over but the shouting for his cheesiness.
 
jhunter1163 said:
I don't think there's any question that Trump's performance in the debate hurt him. He's in the position now of really needing to bounce back strongly in the second debate to have any realistic chance; if he gets owned again, it will be all over but the shouting for his cheesiness.
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He thinks he won so he will probably double down on his "strategy".
 
Hillary gained ten points if the FiveThirtyEight "poll of polls" Since Monday......and this was before this morning's tweet.
 
jhunter1163 said:
I don't think there's any question that Trump's performance in the debate hurt him. He's in the position now of really needing to bounce back strongly in the second debate to have any realistic chance; if he gets owned again, it will be all over but the shouting for his cheesiness.
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And the second debate will be on foreign policy...not exactly Donald's stronpoint,particularly with many GOP voters, who are not thrilled with his love for Putin.
 
dudalb said:
And the second debate will be on foreign policy...not exactly Donald's stronpoint,particularly with many GOP voters, who are not thrilled with his love for Putin.
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And a moderator whose reckoned to be tougher than the guy in the first debate. Real chance of trump going off on a rant while on stage?
 
foophil said:
Bumping this up. 538 now has Hillary up over Trump by just a 54% to 46% margin. That is down sharply from around a month ago of ~ 90% to 10%. Trump hasn't stopped saying/tweeting stupid things, and reports continue rolling in about his shady business dealings and connections to Russia.
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Are you sure about that?
 
Foolmewunz said:
The real stinker for the GOP is that in the 4-way their house polling group, Rasmussen shows a huge swing to Clinton from their previous poll.

Clinton | Trump | Johnson | Stein
39 | 44 | 8 | 2 -- Sep 20/21 1000 LV
42 | 41 | 7 | 2 -- Sep 26/28 1500 LB
+3 -3 -1 nc
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ANd Rasmussan is notoriously slanted toward the GOP candidate.
 
A saying that is not exact about the numbers but overall correct is that any GOP Candidate for President will get 40% of the vote, any Democrat 40% of the vote, with 20% that could go either way. It is the undecided that decides elections, and who the campaign is aimed at. IMHO Trump lost a lot of ground this week with the 20%.
 
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