Ed FiveThirtyEight GE Forecast

nelsondogg said:
Sam Wang did better last election, getting 50/50 states, 10/10 senate races and the exact popular vote percentage. He has Clinton at an 85% chance of winning.
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Actually, Wang has two models: the one you report, giving Clinton an 85% chance, and the one you ignored, giving Clinton only a 70% chance. Nate Silver's two forecast models, which give Clinton a 72% and a 78% chance, fall right in between.
 
jt512 said:
He actually has different models, including one for the candidates' chances in November (a forecast model) and one for what the candidates' chances would be if the election were held today (a now-cast model). The difference between the two is that the forecast model includes additional uncertainty due to the election being in the future. But you are correct that he has made no attempt to adjust his models specifically for Trump's idiosyncratic unpredictability or the FBI's investigation of Hillary.




Nate's forecast models do not account for specific unpredictable future events, an impossible feat by definition; but they do account for the inherent uncertainty in early polling. This uncertainty, which diminishes with time until the election, is accounted for in the model.
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It would be pretty surprising if at this point any candidate in a 2-man race had less than, say, a 5-10% chance of winning due to some kind of unexpected outside event - the other candidate falling ill or some kind of disaster or other sudden event that lends credit to the worldview of the candidate.
 
538 current forecasts

Polls only: 81.7℅ - 18.3%
Polls plus: 75.4% - 24.6℅
Now cast: 92.9℅ - 7.1%

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So we are back to where we were in late June as far as Silver;s polls go. It was Trump's big chance to turn this around,he has the convention and the E Mail scandal,and he totally blew it.
 
dudalb said:
So we are back to where we were in late June as far as Silver;s polls go. It was Trump's big chance to turn this around,he has the convention and the E Mail scandal,and he totally blew it.
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Fox has a poll aggregator on every couple of weeks. His calculation today for the EC is unchanged from his March calculation. He has Hillary with 338 EC votes. [No, I don't know why Fox allows him on. Maybe they're trying to buy some credibility.]

Essentially he sees a map just like the Obama/Romney map, with minor differences... very minor.
 
Foolmewunz said:
Fox has a poll aggregator on every couple of weeks. His calculation today for the EC is unchanged from his March calculation. He has Hillary with 338 EC votes. [No, I don't know why Fox allows him on. Maybe they're trying to buy some credibility.]

Essentially he sees a map just like the Obama/Romney map, with minor differences... very minor.
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I was quizzing you about polling numbers (not sure which of the many, many politics threads it was). You have been vindicated; your prediction was correct.
 
Foolmewunz said:
Fox has a poll aggregator on every couple of weeks. His calculation today for the EC is unchanged from his March calculation. He has Hillary with 338 EC votes. [No, I don't know why Fox allows him on. Maybe they're trying to buy some credibility.]

Essentially he sees a map just like the Obama/Romney map, with minor differences... very minor.
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Sabato now has it as 347-191. And with AZ and GA very close that could easily become 374-164.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2016-president/
 
Tony Stark said:
No, it based on what people think the odds are. People make horrible bets all the time. It is possible that the one I made with you was a bad bet, though I highly doubt it



Trump also believes that some of his supporters are afraid to tell pollsters on the phone that they will vote for him. Of course, there is no reason to believe this. He actually does a little worse on online polls than phone polls.
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Make of this what you will, but one of the guys I supervise came to me wanting advice on either making pro-Trump posts on his FB account or keeping his mouth shut.

I told him his business was his business as far as I'm concerned, but that other interested viewers may feel differently.

I don't have too many questions nowadays about more individuals taking the time to think about what they divulge to strangers, or post on the 'net - I myself found out the hard way in '06 that someone might take offense to posts including personal opinions on politics and act on their objections.
 
The bad thing about states like Georgia become competitive is the drain on overall GOP resources. MOney and other resoruces they need to spend in the normal swing states like Ohio and FLorida will now have to go to states they shoud not have to worry about. The Dems just need to put in enough resources in the new purple states to keep them competive;they can win without them and not have to divert resoruces from the normal swing states.
 
dudalb said:
The bad thing about states like Georgia become competitive is the drain on overall GOP resources. MOney and other resoruces they need to spend in the normal swing states like Ohio and FLorida will now have to go to states they shoud not have to worry about. The Dems just need to put in enough resources in the new purple states to keep them competive;they can win without them and not have to divert resoruces from the normal swing states.
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This is why I wanted Clinton to pick a Texican for the VP slot. Having to spend money in GA or AZ is nothing compared to having to try to lock down Texas, which should be a GOP birthright. It's not so much as it's an expensive state to campaign in or to buy ads for the disparate TV markets. While that's true, it's a bonus. It's that TX represents the largest EC count outside of CA and the only state in the Top Ten that the GOP can claim. What formula do they have to come up with 38 electoral votes; that's the same as the whole western bloc of red states - WY, ID, MT, UT, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK.

The real interesting non-fact is watching the Trump Path to the White House. As I've mentioned before, they've written off VA - Kaine's home state. They have stated they MUST take FL, NC, PA, OH. Right after the convention, Trump stays in OH and picks a fight with Kasich. Before breaking for the weekend, he and Pence head to nearby safe-red-zones in PA. No polls are in for OH since the conventions but PA immediately went blue, in big numbers.

Trump heads out to CO and gets his sequined knee pads out to visit some REAL billionaires - the Kochs, who refuse to let him in the lobby, and he follows up with Pence visiting the state, AND THE POLLS TURN BLUE.

He was just in FL several times. Turning blue-er. Spoke up about his powerhouse support in NH. Guess what?

The new improved Trump campaign plan should be to send him on vacation. Whenever he shows up in a purple state, it converts to Dem within a week.
 
Foolmewunz said:
This is why I wanted Clinton to pick a Texican for the VP slot. Having to spend money in GA or AZ is nothing compared to having to try to lock down Texas, which should be a GOP birthright. It's not so much as it's an expensive state to campaign in or to buy ads for the disparate TV markets. While that's true, it's a bonus. It's that TX represents the largest EC count outside of CA and the only state in the Top Ten that the GOP can claim. What formula do they have to come up with 38 electoral votes; that's the same as the whole western bloc of red states - WY, ID, MT, UT, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK.

The real interesting non-fact is watching the Trump Path to the White House. As I've mentioned before, they've written off VA - Kaine's home state. They have stated they MUST take FL, NC, PA, OH. Right after the convention, Trump stays in OH and picks a fight with Kasich. Before breaking for the weekend, he and Pence head to nearby safe-red-zones in PA. No polls are in for OH since the conventions but PA immediately went blue, in big numbers.

Trump heads out to CO and gets his sequined knee pads out to visit some REAL billionaires - the Kochs, who refuse to let him in the lobby, and he follows up with Pence visiting the state, AND THE POLLS TURN BLUE.

He was just in FL several times. Turning blue-er. Spoke up about his powerhouse support in NH. Guess what?

The new improved Trump campaign plan should be to send him on vacation. Whenever he shows up in a purple state, it converts to Dem within a week.
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Hindsight is 20/20. Winning Texas for a Democrat even with native Texan as a VP choice seemed like reaching for the moon. But now I wis h they had. But I had my reservations about Castro. There is only so much history you can push for at a time.

But knowing just how big a buffoon that Trump is, I'd love to see Clinton put a lot of resources in Texas now. Winning Texas might mean coattails that swing the house over. Unfortunately, though Texas is about the most Gerrymandered State in the nation. It's a tall order.
 
[imgw=640]http://i.imgur.com/z2ELEHc.png[/imgw]

Edited by zooterkin: 
Reduced image size.
 
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Stacko said:
GOP post mortem 2016, "Let's not nominate a racist with a personality disorder again."
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Yeah, no more loud-mouthed racists with personality disorders.
Next time we will pick a loud-mouthed religious nut with a personality disorder.
 
Stacko said:
Now cast has Hillary at 95.4%.
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But isn't there a limit to how useful a "now-cast" can be?

I could say if the Bears played the Packers today, then there would be a 95% chance of the Bears winning. But the game is not going to be played today. The game won't be played until October 20.
 
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Ladewig said:
But isn't there a limit to how useful a "now-cast" can be?

I could say if the Bears played the Packers today, then there would be a 95% chance of the Bears winning. But the game is not going to be played today.
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It's more the fact that you can give those odds with a straight face. Polls plus is at 78.7% which is still really staggering this far out. It's Clinton's election to lose.
 
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