Ed FiveThirtyEight GE Forecast

CapelDodger said:
How many of those people are promoting betting sites, I wonder? Come for the polls, stay for the slots ...
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Hey ,I..and a great many people....consider the betting lines to be the most accurate when it comes to election predictions.They are in it for the money, and are cold stone neutral when it comes to the odds.
 
Foolmewunz said:
Update noon 03 October.

NY Times 77%
538 - 68%
Daily Kos - 72%
PredictWise - 80%
Princeton Election Consortium - 86%

PredictWise, by the way, is following the betting sites. (Many people say they are a better mark than the polls.)
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Update Noon 05 October

NY Times - 81%
538 - 75%
Daily Kos - 82%
Huffington Post - 82%
PredictWise - 80%
Princeton Election Consortium - 91%

Fivethirtyeight is often accused of having a left bias, but they're the most conservative (in the "playing it safe" sense of the word).
 
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I'm not sure how 538 could be accused of having a left bias; they explain their methodology on their website and how often they adjust it based on new information. Not to mention Nate Silver has a 100% success rate at predicting the last four or five Presidential elections (starting with the first one he ever predicted, as I recall) and something like a 95% or higher success rate at predicting Congressional elections. That to me says he's not paying attention at ALL to media spin and hype and is focusing exclusively on the numbers, based on which polls have been shown to be the most accurate based on their history. Dude's a freakin' statistician, not a pundit or talking head.
 
NoahFence said:
Isn't that an 80% success rate?
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bonzombiekitty said:
I think he means he got all the states right in 4 of the last 5 elections.
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I believe she meant "four or five", as in "I can't recall how many", but it was actually nearly 100%, although I think it was the last two, '08 and '12, but he also did the off-year elections where his record's not as nearly spotless. I believe he got one state wrong in '08 and zero wrong in '12.
 
Four or five, not four of five. IIRC, he made his name by getting all of the states right just in the Romney/Obama race, which no one else did.
 
Beelzebuddy said:
Four or five, not four of five. IIRC, he made his name by getting all of the states right just in the Romney/Obama race, which no one else did.
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That was after he called 49 of 50 in '08 (Obama/McCain). He was already a household name in political junkie circles by '12(Obama/Romney).
 
dudalb said:
Hey ,I..and a great many people....consider the betting lines to be the most accurate when it comes to election predictions.They are in it for the money, and are cold stone neutral when it comes to the odds.
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If gamblers were rational they wouldn't be gamblers! [emoji39]
 
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Foolmewunz said:
I believe she meant "four or five", as in "I can't recall how many", but it was actually nearly 100%, although I think it was the last two, '08 and '12, but he also did the off-year elections where his record's not as nearly spotless. I believe he got one state wrong in '08 and zero wrong in '12.
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This is correct. I can't recall exactly how many presidential elections Nate Silver's predicted; I only started paying attention during the 2008 election. I just knew it started four or five elections ago.
 
Sabrina said:
This is correct. I can't recall exactly how many presidential elections Nate Silver's predicted; I only started paying attention during the 2008 election. I just knew it started four or five elections ago.
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2008 was the first election he did this. He got 49/50 that year (he had Indiana going for McCain but Obama won it). In 2012 he got 50/50.

Before he started 538 he did statistical analysis for baseball.
 
TubbaBlubba said:
He did lose some cred due to his extensive punditry over Trump. But on the other hand, Trump's victory was possible due to a number of reasonable assumptions being faulty.
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Yeah, Silver at least admits he made a mistake by ignoring the polls in that prediction.
 
Sabrina said:
I'm not sure how 538 could be accused of having a left bias; they explain their methodology on their website and how often they adjust it based on new information.
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Well there you are. They blind you with science then pull numbers out the air.

Not to mention Nate Silver has a 100% success rate at predicting the last four or five Presidential elections (starting with the first one he ever predicted, as I recall) and something like a 95% or higher success rate at predicting Congressional elections.
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And if they adjusted the actual votes to fit Nate Silver's predictions the result would be the same. This proves nothing.

That to me says he's not paying attention at ALL to media spin and hype and is focusing exclusively on the numbers, based on which polls have been shown to be the most accurate based on their history. Dude's a freakin' statistician, not a pundit or talking head.
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Whis is exactly what the libruls want you to think. Case closed.
 
dudalb said:
Hey ,I..and a great many people....consider the betting lines to be the most accurate when it comes to election predictions.They are in it for the money, and are cold stone neutral when it comes to the odds.
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That applies to the bookies (who aren't gamblers) but not so much the gamblers. How does the track record look?
 
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