Cont: Electric Vehicles II

[acbytesla]

well there’s a lot fewer mechanical parts but there’s still some. for example, the rotary motion of the motor is transmitted to the wheels, there’s still steering and suspension components, wiring harnesses and electrical connections, etc. if it moves, it generates heat, and it wears. it remains to be seen how easy they are to repair and how available and affordable parts will be, and how much of an impediment software will be to them. imo

but they’re definitely more simple mechanically. less stuff moving the better

Of course there are other moving parts in an EV like a differential, driveshaft, suspension and steering parts. All of which are part of every vehicle regardless if it is powered by electricity or combustion. My point is a well made electrical motor today should be able to be made cheaper and more reliable than any combustion engine. But you are 100 percent right that electrical connections, resistance, etc can damage an electrical motor.

 

[dirtywick]

oh i thought your point was evs will last significantly longer than ice vehicles. i was pointing out theres limiting factors beyond the motor to that statement. of course, there’s less that can go wrong with evs, there’s still plenty

 

[acbytesla]

oh i thought your point was evs will last significantly longer than ice vehicles. i was pointing out theres limiting factors beyond the motor to that statement. of course, there’s less that can go wrong with evs, there’s still plenty

I think that too. Yes, there is still plenty of things that can go wrong. But substantially less.

 

[acbytesla]

Probably the biggest problem in buying an EV right now is depreciation. Because advancements are coming faster and faster new models are outdated amazingly fast. And if promised solid state batteries hit the market as they are promised to in the next few years today's purchase will have lost maybe half its value inside of two years.

 

[The Don]

Probably the biggest problem in buying an EV right now is depreciation. Because advancements are coming faster and faster new models are outdated amazingly fast. And if promised solid state batteries hit the market as they are promised to in the next few years today's purchase will have lost maybe half its value inside of two years.

Buy an 18 month old one and let someone else take the hit. That's what I've done for my last few ICE vehicles and what I intend to do when I buy an EV.

 

[acbytesla]

Buy an 18 month old one and let someone else take the hit. That's what I've done for my last few ICE vehicles and what I intend to do when I buy an EV.

I've only purchased 1 new car in my life and it was a mistake. So I get that.

I see the same thing happening today in the EV market as I use to in the PC market. So i believe that you should wait if you can wait.

 

[8enotto]

Conversions like Edison offer would allow you to keep that beloved classic, comfortable sedan or work truck you already have in service.
In addition you can spec out the unit to what fits you best. In my area a hybrid over short/ medium range all battery using a small Honda gen unit. For lack of a charging network one could charge up while at work, power up tools, whatever you are doing and be able to drive home to charge on solar or the grid.

You could save yourself from minor situations having the gas option as back up, and still consume far less than a regular car would.

Stopgap measure? Yes. Effective and simple systems combined to make sure a misjudgement in range doesn't mean a rescue.

When a network of chargers exists and is proven reliable one could do as the city dweller does. Maybe with the same car.

 

[Rolfe]

Seems to vary a lot between countries. I'm absolutely happy to drive anywhere in Britain and probably anywhere in Europe without any concern that I'm not going to be able to charge where I want to.

I get it about the depreciation. But then, all cars depreciate.

I needed a new car because I had a write-off on my hands, two years ago. There was basically nothing suitable in the used EV line that I could see. And besides, I wanted a new car. Just because. One of my reasons for buying the MG4 was that it was cheap. There's a limit to how big an absolute depreciation hit you can take on a £26,950 car. In fact I don't really care about depreciation because I don't have the slightest intention of selling it, but I did think a bit ahead.

I'd never had an EV before, I thought I was going to like it, but who knows? There was an outside chance I might hate it so much I'd want to get rid of the car early. So less scope for depreciation was attractive. Well, that ship sailed some time ago. But the other thing was what @acbytesla mentioned. The way things are moving, my nice handy MG4 could be looking like a Reliant Robin beside the sort of cars everyone will be buying in five years, and maybe I'll get jealous and want to switch. So again, less scope for depreciation is good. Of course, the car is going to go on doing what it does now regardless of what else is on the market, so maybe I won't care. But if I really, really do care, at least I haven't already blown every last penny.

And then again, maybe someone will be selling replacement batteries for 2023 MG4s with 500 miles of range and 250 kw charging speed for £2,000 by then!

 

[acbytesla]

I am under the impression that EVs

Seems to vary a lot between countries. I'm absolutely happy to drive anywhere in Britain and probably anywhere in Europe without any concern that I'm not going to be able to charge where I want to.

I get it about the depreciation. But then, all cars depreciate.

I needed a new car because I had a write-off on my hands, two years ago. There was basically nothing suitable in the used EV line that I could see. And besides, I wanted a new car. Just because. One of my reasons for buying the MG4 was that it was cheap. There's a limit to how big an absolute depreciation hit you can take on a £26,950 car. In fact I don't really care about depreciation because I don't have the slightest intention of selling it, but I did think a bit ahead.

I'd never had an EV before, I thought I was going to like it, but who knows? There was an outside chance I might hate it so much I'd want to get rid of the car early. So less scope for depreciation was attractive. Well, that ship sailed some time ago. But the other thing was what @acbytesla mentioned. The way things are moving, my nice handy MG4 could be looking like a Reliant Robin beside the sort of cars everyone will be buying in five years, and maybe I'll get jealous and want to switch. So again, less scope for depreciation is good. Of course, the car is going to go on doing what it does now regardless of what else is on the market, so maybe I won't care. But if I really, really do care, at least I haven't already blown every last penny.

And then again, maybe someone will be selling replacement batteries for 2023 MG4s with 500 miles of range and 250 kw charging speed for £2,000 by then!

Everything depends on the buyer, their resources and the market. I'm in Washington State and if I was buying today, I'd probably buy a long range Tesla 3 because of the Federal and State incentives. Both of which are likely to be discontinued soon. There is the huge Tesla charging network

The Chinese EVs aren't really available in the US and Trump has slapped a 30% tarriff on many Chinese products.

But I don't want to do anything that might benefit Musk at the moment. So I'm going to wait a few more years and reevaluate my options.

 

[acbytesla]

There are many car companies saying they will be rolling out new battery chemistries that will increase EV range in the next few years.
The problem is that we don't know whether this is real or if is hype.

What do you think? The longest range passenger vehicle today is the Lucid Air Grand Touring XR at 512 miles or 824 kilometers. What car company will be number one in 2027 and what will be the range? In 2030?

 

[8enotto]

The battery tech advancing is real. Primary reason is they are looking for a recipe that uses less exotic/expensive materials and is cheaper to manufacturers.

NiCad got us started, lithium made it longer lasting in both respects and what comes next needs to weigh less and last a bit longer. Pack a bit more in the car or device battery and it's new and improved.
If it is cheaper to produce and safer even better.

 

[Dabop]

There are many car companies saying they will be rolling out new battery chemistries that will increase EV range in the next few years.
The problem is that we don't know whether this is real or if is hype.

What do you think? The longest range passenger vehicle today is the Lucid Air Grand Touring XR at 512 miles or 824 kilometers. What car company will be number one in 2027 and what will be the range? In 2030?

I really have to wonder why so many are fixated on range- even the cheapest on the market here in Australia have more than sufficient range for most people already (824km is a ridiculous amount of driving to do in 'one go' lol)

 

[dirtywick]

i agree range isn't that serious, and people will realize that as they get adopted more. chasing range is a mistake. i think lowering manufacturing costs and purchase price is a huge step foward. the chinese have that right, a cheap car that costs little in payments, cheap on insurance, and nothing to run is something you'll sell a million of, especially if you have some range options. imo they're marketed as this sleek high tech luxury thing and priced that way, but there's a big market for people that want to drive cheap.

 

[acbytesla]

I really have to wonder why so many are fixated on range- even the cheapest on the market here in Australia have more than sufficient range for most people already (824km is a ridiculous amount of driving to do in 'one go' lol)

It depends on how you use the car. Long road trips is very much an American way of life. I've driven across the State as may as ten times in a year That's 300 miles each way. Coat to coast 6 times in my life and twice that many trips from Seattle to as far South as Ensenada Mexico. I was also once an avid skiier I have spent entire winters driving from ski area to ski area. When you're driving ten hours between resorts, you don't really want to stop and charge for an hour anywhere.

But why I bring it up is that I'm really curious about what the future will bring in increasing energy density. I expect that even if they double the energy density most cars will just install smaller batteries. Toyota promised that they will be selling a car with a 745 mile range that can charge in 10 minutes. Battery packs will cost 50% less. Considering that battery packs make up 30 to 45% of a vehicle's cost, EVs will be cheaper than ICE cars.

This is a earth shaking, market rattling change. But this isn't the first time Toyota has made these kind of promises. But this  appears much more real. But they're not the only car manufacturer promising revolutionary solid state batteries in their cars in next few years.
I read so much hype, these days I can't help but be at least a little skeptical. There's a huge delta between laboratory breakthroughs and the ability to create a supply chain, build an assembly line and manufacture the battery packs.

So what do you think? Is this real? Or is it merely marketing?

 

[Dabop]

Tesla has always been in the 'luxury car' bracket ere, where BYD is aimed more at the 'average driver' rather than the 'supercar' market... (mind you a 8 sec 0-100 time is still in the 'v8/turbo 6 range)
Reliable, low priced- the Atto 3 I am looking at getting later this year is over 10k less than a Tesla Y (same size and bodyshape) and thats for the base model Y too lol, has a more than adequate range of 400km (and I live in a VERY rural area of Queensland- as in from my town to the next one is literally 100km of empty bushland and some farmland) and yet even the current models are taking off here- if anyone should have 'range anxiety' it would be us, and yet they have sold more new EVs in town than new ICErs...
(between Tela's high prices, lack of spare parts availability and elons antics, Tesla is a 'bit on the nose' here...)
The one Tesla in town took over six months for parts to arrive to fix it after a roo hit (the actual repair was done in a day lol) and was sold soon after, he now has a Seal lol (BYD usually ship repair panels within a day, sometimes spares arrive the next day...)

 

[Dabop]

It depends on how you use the car. Long road trips is very much an American way of life. I've driven across the State as may as ten times in a year That's 300 miles each way. Coat to coast 6 times in my life and twice that many trips from Seattle to as far South as Ensenada Mexico. I was also once an avid skiier I have spent entire winters driving from ski area to ski area. When you're driving ten hours between resorts, you don't really want to stop and charge for an hour anywhere.

But why I bring it up is that I'm really curious about what the future will bring in increasing energy density. I expect that even if they double the energy density most cars will just install smaller batteries. Toyota promised that they will be selling a car with a 745 mile range that can charge in 10 minutes. Battery packs will cost 50% less. Considering that battery packs make up 30 to 45% of a vehicle's cost, EVs will be cheaper than ICE cars.

This is a earth shaking, market rattling change. But this isn't the first time Toyota has made these kind of promises. But this  appears much more real. But they're not the only car manufacturer promising revolutionary solid state batteries in their cars in next few years.
I read so much hype, these days I can't help but be at least a little skeptical. There's a huge delta between laboratory breakthroughs and the ability to create a supply chain, build an assembly line and manufacture the battery packs.

So what do you think? Is this real? Or is it merely marketing?

The US is no bigger than Australia lol- what makes you think that EVs can't already DO long distance trips (they do...)

The Atto I test drove here in town had only a couple of months before returned from a trip to Melbourne- thats a 2000km/1200 miles/21 hours of driving time trip each way- the equivalent of driving from Washington DC to Houston in Texas and back...
That's in a 'cheap' Chinese EV that 'only' has a 400km range- but it also recharges 80% of its pack in about 25 minutes... (and thats one of the slower recharging models on the market, the Atto is a rather dated design, having been on sale here since 2021)

A quick recharge while taking a leak and buying a meal every four hours seems not only 'doable' but anyone driving those distances should be taking a break every couple of hours anyway (or your chances of having a crash go way up) the guy who owned it said it took no longer than any trip he had done previously in his diesel Hilux- and was a hell of a lot more comfortable... (owning a Hilux myself and having regularly driven it long distance, I know what he means- the Atto felt like a Rolls Royce in comparison lol and thrashed the Hilux for overtaking etc...literally twice the acceleration...)

 

[acbytesla]

The US is no bigger than Australia lol- what makes you think that EVs can't already DO long distance trips (they do...)

The Atto I test drove here in town had only a couple of months before returned from a trip to Melbourne- thats a 2000km/1200 miles/21 hours of driving time trip each way- the equivalent of driving from Washington DC to Houston in Texas and back...
That's in a 'cheap' Chinese EV that 'only' has a 400km range- but it also recharges 80% of its pack in about 25 minutes... (and thats one of the slower recharging models on the market, the Atto is a rather dated design, having been on sale here since 2021)

A quick recharge while taking a leak and buying a meal every four hours seems not only 'doable' but anyone driving those distances should be taking a break every couple of hours anyway (or your chances of having a crash go way up) the guy who owned it said it took no longer than any trip he had done previously in his diesel Hilux- and was a hell of a lot more comfortable... (owning a Hilux myself and having regularly driven it long distance, I know what he means- the Atto felt like a Rolls Royce in comparison lol and thrashed the Hilux for overtaking etc...literally twice the acceleration...)

It's not that I disagree much with you. As I said, I'm curious about where this is headed.

 

[Rolfe]

Nobody is stopping to charge for an hour even now. Or nobody with a car aimed at long distance journeys is. They're stopping for 20-30 minutes about every three hours, at motorway speeds. As they should be, whatever they're driving.

Mercedes is talking about a car with a 1,000 km range. Who needs that? Better to market it as a car that can tow a caravan or a horsebox for a more reasonable distance.

 

[acbytesla]

Nobody is stopping to charge for an hour even now. Or nobody with a car aimed at long distance journeys is. They're stopping for 20-30 minutes about every three hours, at motorway speeds. As they should be, whatever they're driving.

Mercedes is talking about a car with a 1,000 km range. Who needs that? Better to market it as a car that can tow a caravan or a horsebox for a more reasonable distance.

It's very much about the number and bragging rights. Lucid brags that it makes the longest range EV with a range of 824 kilometers. Mercedes wants that title. The number represents convenience and piece of mind, not need. And no, Mercedes isn't a car for towing. Never seen one towing a trailer in my entire life.

 

[Rolfe]

No, I was thinking that.

But when you think that most of these cars will be living in houses with their own overnight charging facilities, and seldom being driven more than maybe 100 miles in a day, it all seems a bit pointless.