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Early elections predictions

Who will win US presidential elections of 2024 ?

  • Total voters
    82
crescent said:
Last night Nate Silver (formerly of 538 and now with the Silver Bulletin) released the results of 80,000 simulations of election outcomes. Harris won 40,012 of them.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

Back in 2016 the 538 blog ran simulations for Trump/Clinton, in which Trump won 28.6% and Clinton won 71.4% of the outcomes, this based on 20,000 simulations (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/). For that Silver/538 were excoriated by many left-leaning news outlets and some still have not forgiven him for showing that Trump essentially had a 1 in 3 chance of winning. And many still cite that 2016 poll as an example of a really inaccurate poll, even though it got closer than any of the other non-partisan polls.

Based on all that, I have no idea who will win this round.
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He’s taken the bold position of “I have no idea who will win, but whatever the result, I’ll be right”.
 
which is exactly what he chastized other pollsters for doing.
 
Donal said:
which is exactly what he chastized other pollsters for doing.
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?? I guess I don't understand. He ran the numbers and this is what they got. At least there's no evidence otherwise, and most other probability estimates are similarly close (538, for example, is at 50.33% chance of Harris win, 49.34% chance of a Trump win. 270toWin is at 50.8% Trump win and 48.8% Harris win. All three calculate limited (but possible) chances of an EC tie.

In a few hours or a day or two we'll find out if the polling was even close. But this really might turn out to be a crazy close election.
 
Each time there is at least one state that the pundits declared a done deal..until it wasn't. And all are shocked!

I think New Hampshire could easily flip.
Maybe not all that surprising for the "Live Free or Die" state.

Any others?
 
Sherkeu said:
Each time there is at least one state that the pundits declared a done deal..until it wasn't. And all are shocked!

I think New Hampshire could easily flip.
Maybe not all that surprising for the "Live Free or Die" state.

Any others?
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Nonsense.

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crescent said:
?? I guess I don't understand. He ran the numbers and this is what they got. At least there's no evidence otherwise, and most other probability estimates are similarly close (538, for example, is at 50.33% chance of Harris win, 49.34% chance of a Trump win. 270toWin is at 50.8% Trump win and 48.8% Harris win. All three calculate limited (but possible) chances of an EC tie.

In a few hours or a day or two we'll find out if the polling was even close. But this really might turn out to be a crazy close election.
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And if it's not, the pollsters will tell us it was still within the margin or error. I struggle to find the utility of a model that predicts almost all outcomes but commits to none of them. I can do that on my own without all the fancy math and graphs.
 
johnny karate said:
....I struggle to find the utility of a model that predicts almost all outcomes but commits to none of them. I can do that on my own without all the fancy math and graphs.
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538 and Battleground 270 show which probabilities were highest in their modelling, which outcomes were repeated the most across replications.

Battleground270 shows the most likely scenario as Trump with 312 EC votes (8.48% chance of happening), the second most likely scenario as Harris with 319 (3.98%). Six of the top five most likely scenarios predict a Harris win.

538 shows the most likely scenario as Trump with 312 EC votes, second most likley as Harris with 319. Of the top five scenarios on that one, two favor Trump and three favor Harris.

(If Silver has such data, I have not found it)

Which doesn't really tell us much. If polling is off or was weighted wrongly, then it's all just garbage in/garbage out. And with changes in the way people communicate with pollsters, I am very suspicious of polling right now.
 
Jimmy Kimmel had the best line for election night jitters: It's like waiting to get the results of a biopsy.
 
Sherkeu said:
Each time there is at least one state that the pundits declared a done deal..until it wasn't. And all are shocked!

I think New Hampshire could easily flip.
Maybe not all that surprising for the "Live Free or Die" state.

Any others?
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NH went for Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020. The latest NH polls show Harris at 52% and Trump at 45%.
 
Stacyhs said:
NH went for Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020. The latest NH polls show Harris at 52% and Trump at 45%.
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Trump is winning areas in NH that have not voted Republican in 32 years.
Small samples but might relate to a trend statewide.

As of this moment, Harris leads.
 
I predict we won't know a winner for sure until like Thursday. Meanwhile, countless village idiots will be rioting from one side or another and far too few having their heads handed to them as they are just begging for.
 
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