Early elections predictions

[Solitaire]

Funny, most of whatI am reading says the economy...inflation in particular, is what gave Trump his victory.
I think voters made a terrible mistake, but I think that many voted for Trump despite his racism instead of because of it.
The other message is that the Left is terrible at getting across it message to many people.
I know I will get blasted for this, but they have to learn to communicate with blue collar and rural Americans to win.

They'll be in for a surprise about the economy. Let's just say borrowing money causes downturns.

It was a month ago I noticed a strange thing. No advertising. No radio ads, no billboards about candidates. Basically, you had to do your own research to find the Democratic Party candidates for office. They have successfully achieved micro party status in this state. Did they turn it over to xAI?

 

[Samson]

Trump wins 316.
Christians everywhere will go bananas to an annoying level.

Looks like 312.

 

[Dr.Sid]

Hm .. I'd say it's clear victory, rather than close. Sure, swing states are still quite close .. but Trump got all of them, and the winner was called on the election night.

So the victors are: The Don, Dani, Grizzly Bear, Sherkeu, The Great Zaganza

Cynical bastards. Possibly trolls. But victors none the less. The rest of us should work on our skepticism.

Nate Silver did also decently, as option "Trump wins all swing states" came out at 20% of his simulation model. Unfortunately the option "Harris wins all swing states" came out second at 14%, and his conclusions were still underestimating Trump by few %.

It seems my idea "Harris is doing worse than Biden, so she can't win" worked, but it really looked lot closer, even by this metric.

Some betting markets did also good, but I don't remember seeing all swing states going red anywhere .. but again .. they did way better than us skeptics here.

 

[The Don]

I'm not a troll, I'm a Cassandra - doomed to predict catastrophe and not be believed.

Regarding the economy and its effect on the election. IMO it's nigh on impossible to be the government during a downtown/inflation rise and not suffer when it comes to the polls. You can hardly say "We messed up badly the last 4 years and you're really feeling it in the pocket book - we'll do it differently the next 4" - especially when actually the economy is in decent shape and most people are better off (even though many may not feel it).

 

[Sherkeu]

Hm .. I'd say it's clear victory, rather than close. Sure, swing states are still quite close .. but Trump got all of them, and the winner was called on the election night.

So the victors are: The Don, Dani, Grizzly Bear, Sherkeu, The Great Zaganza

Cynical bastards. Possibly trolls. But victors none the less. The rest of us should work on our skepticism.

Nate Silver did also decently, as option "Trump wins all swing states" came out at 20% of his simulation model. Unfortunately the option "Harris wins all swing states" came out second at 14%, and his conclusions were still underestimating Trump by few %.

It seems my idea "Harris is doing worse than Biden, so she can't win" worked, but it really looked lot closer, even by this metric.

Some betting markets did also good, but I don't remember seeing all swing states going red anywhere .. but again .. they did way better than us skeptics here.

First.... not troll. Not Cynical or bastard. I expect some apology when a sense of reason returns to that poster.

28% said country in wrong direction . The only category Kamala won in was "nice".
NO one has ever Won a Presidental election with such a dismal review.

A super charismatic visionary could have taken the reins from Biden and pivoted to a new direction with a sense of youth and hope and promise!
(Even if I thought they were full of total BS in their rhetoric)
Sadly, no such person existed this time.

Congrats to the other 2 voters with me who voted when it was sort of "early", over a month ago.