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Moderated Dowsing By Edge

Spektator said:
Okay, I'll give it a try. SezMe, EHocking, check me on this.
<snip>
Click to expand...

I'd like to see a few changes but I don't think we should put any more time in on this until we hear back from JREF. If they say, "Kaput. Fini. We're outta here." then that is the end of the story. Any effort we might put in would be wasted.

If they are open to a take-it-or-leave it offer, then this. plus EHocking's work, should get us to a protocol.

So I'm going to stand by......................
 
I've only been vaguely following this, and i may have skimmed over something important, but I’m confused as to why it should take 8 hours to test a confident, experienced dowser.

10 trials:
10 [buckets or whatever] per trial
1 has [gold nugget or whatever]
9 have [sand or limestone or whatever]

10 minutes to setup and run an open pre-test
10 minutes per trial (that's 1 minute per bucket - a long time)
2 minutes per reset

total: 130 minutes - 2.16 hours, call it 2.5.
Setting up cameras, and clean up afterwards - you're done within 3 hours.

Spacing between the buckets will be predecided so that there won't be interference etc (this is also the purpose of the open test...) Location can be (within reason) at the discretion of the applicant.

I'm also confused about this:

edge said:
Targets pass on one spot.
Click to expand...

I honestly don't understand what this means. "targets pass on one spot" doesn't mean anything - can someone please rephrase that as a sentence (pref. edge...)
 
Okay, edge, is this better?

PROTOCOL FOR DOWSING TEST

Material required:
1 target, 5 oz. silver
1 5-lb bag of lime
10 11-ounce plastic coffee containers
Scale

Procedure:

The dowser will attempt to locate the target hidden inside one of the containers. There will be five runs of ten containers each, numbered 1-10. In each run, the target will be present in one container only.

The containers will be prepared this way: In nine of the containers for each trial there will be eight ounces of lime. These are the dummy containers. In the remaining container there will be three ounces of lime plus the five-ounce target.

Before the test begins, the dowser will locate a specific spot on which all the containers will be placed, one at a time, for his dowsing test. The scale will be set up so that the dowser can attach his dowsing rod to it directly over the place where the containers will be placed.

The dowser will then move away to a waiting area and will be out of sight of the testing area at the beginning of each trial.

A randomizer will choose one of the containers in which to place the target for each run of ten. The randomizer will signal the placement team when the target has been placed in a container.

The placement team will take the container to the test site, place it on the test spot the dowser has located, and signal the dowser. Then the placement team will leave before the dowser arrives.

The dowser will use his dowsing rod on each container and will say whether the container does or does not contain the silver target.

When the dowser has stated this, the observation team will record his opinion on a sheet numbered 1-10. If the dowser says the target is present, the number corresponding to the container will be marked T. If not, the number will be marked 0. There can be only one T in each run of ten containers.

The process will be repeated five times, with the target randomly placed in a container for each time and with each container placed on the same spot for each dowsing attempt. After each container is removed, the placement team will wait a minimum of three minutes before placing the next container.

To succeed, the dowser will have to correctly identify the target container five times.

The dowser will fail if he identifies the target container four or fewer times.
 
Little more fiddling:

PROTOCOL FOR DOWSING TEST

The claim: The dowser can successfully detect the presence of a concealed target consisting of 5 ounces of silver with 100% accuracy in five runs, with a one-in-ten possibility of identifying the target by chance alone.

Material required:
1 target, 5 oz. silver
1 5-lb bag of lime
10 11-ounce plastic coffee containers
Scale

Procedure:

The dowser will attempt to locate the target hidden inside one of the containers. There will be five runs of ten containers each, numbered 1-10. In each run, the target will be present in one container only.

The containers will be prepared this way: In nine of the containers for each trial there will be eight ounces of lime. These are the dummy containers. In the remaining container there will be three ounces of lime plus the five-ounce target.

Before the test begins, the dowser will locate a specific spot on which all the containers will be placed, one at a time, for his dowsing test. The scale will be set up so that the dowser can attach his dowsing rod to it directly over the spot where the containers will be placed.

The dowser will then move away to a waiting area and will be out of sight of the testing area at the beginning of each trial. An observer appointed by the dowser will accompany the dowser and the JREF observer(s) and will witness the recording of the dowser's readings.

A randomizer will choose one of the containers in which to place the target for each run of ten. The randomizer will signal the placement team when the target has been placed in a container. The placement team will not know which container conceals the target.

The placement team will take the container to the test site, place it on the test spot the dowser has located, and signal the dowser. Then the placement team will leave before the dowser arrives with his observer and the JREF observer(s).

The dowser will use his dowsing rod on each container and will say whether the container does or does not contain the silver target.

When the dowser has stated this, the observation team will record his opinion on a sheet numbered 1-10. If the dowser says the target is present, the number corresponding to the container will be marked T. If not, the number will be marked 0. There can be only one T in each run of ten containers.

The process will be repeated five times, with the target randomly placed in a container for each time and with each container placed on the same spot for each dowsing attempt. After each container is removed, the placement team will wait a minimum of three minutes before placing the next container. After each run of ten dowsing attempts, the dowser will have a rest period of ten minutes.

To succeed, the dowser will have to correctly identify the target container five times.

The dowser will fail if he identifies the target container four or fewer times.
 
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SezMe said:
For you stat-heads: is the probability of getting 5 out of 5 in Spektator's protocol (.1)^5?
Click to expand...
Good enough for the Preliminary stage, according to these tables.

He'd still have to perform 10 trials for the final stage.

But does it test edge's claim - which was initially 60% success rate, upped to 70% when JREF advised him that was insufficient odds?
If edge agrees, are we inviting accusations of JREF moving the goal posts?
 
SezMe said:
For you stat-heads: is the probability of getting 5 out of 5 in Spektator's protocol (.1)^5?
Click to expand...

Well, since the odds of getting the right one out of 10 is 1/10 (.1) and the trial is being run 5 times, the odds of perfect performance are indeed exactly (.1)^5 = 1/10000. Actually, the odds of getting 4 or more correct are about 1/2173, so maybe that'd be alright too?

Also, I'm kind of dissapointed Reno's protocol didn't include:
Caught sayof school that has stoped Handstandsing " See, told ya so" Is He dead or not. CNN Says yes. St. Pete Times Looking for chads -OR- "hello, I am write single to salute
 
vIQleS said:
I've only been vaguely following this...




I honestly don't understand what this means. "targets pass on one spot"
Click to expand...
All 100 containers must be placed in the exact same spot with time between the removal of one and the placement of the next. So, it’s more like 100 mini tests instead of 10 tests.
 
I don't know much about statistics, so if 4 out of 5 hits is workable, I'd suggest edge go for that. One other thing should be added to the protocol, I think:

The randomizer will keep a record of which container the target is in for each run. At the end of all 5 runs (50 dowsing trials), all participants will compare the observers' list with T marked to show which containers the dowser believes hold the target and the randomizer's record of which containers actually held the target. Until that time, the randomizer and the observers will not communicate with each other in any way.
 
Spektator said:
I don't know much about statistics, so if 4 out of 5 hits is workable, I'd suggest edge go for that. One other thing should be added to the protocol, I think:

The randomizer will keep a record of which container the target is in for each run. At the end of all 5 runs (50 dowsing trials), all participants will compare the observers' list with T marked to show which containers the dowser believes hold the target and the randomizer's record of which containers actually held the target. Until that time, the randomizer and the observers will not communicate with each other in any way.
Click to expand...

I intend to get 5 of 5.

You write it Spectator and I’ll send it .
You may get some of what I have been getting though, in here on the forum.

Remember I need a person for proof of the truth; verification that things written down are the correct numbers recorded, and hits or misses.


Colin understands this,
All 100 containers must be placed in the exact same spot with time between the removal of one and the placement of the next. So, it’s more like 100 mini tests instead of 10 tests.
Click to expand...

Spectator is going to change this though. Instead of a 100 scans, it will be 50 since time is such a big issue.
Then I have to get a higher number of hits, and the statistics are now 5 of 5 correct in my selections of the target, if I understand what is being stated.
This saves time for the JREF, since the goal posts are being moved. LMAO.

4 out of 5 is reasonable, if this is true,
Well, since the odds of getting the right one out of 10 is 1/10 (.1) and the trial is being run 5 times, the odds of perfect performance are indeed exactly (.1)^5 = 1/10000. Actually, the odds of getting 4 or more correct are about 1/2173, so maybe that'd be alright too?
Click to expand...
Is that true Spectator?
If you are going to be on my side then be truthful.


Some leeway would be nice.

Ok SezMe I’ll ask again HOW LONG DID THAT TEST OF TEN SCANS TAKE AFTER THE SET UP?
Click to expand...

Ehocking says,
Good enough for the Preliminary stage, according to these tables.

He'd still have to perform 10 trials for the final stage.

But does it test edge's claim - which was initially 60% success rate, upped to 70% when JREF advised him that was insufficient odds?
If edge agrees, are we inviting accusations of JREF moving the goal posts?
Click to expand...

This why I’m asking SezMe about the time issue, I may have missed his statement.
I already agreed to 70% so that's ok but now it doesn't apply accourding to Spectators new protocol,unless
you are saying that in the final I would still have to do 100 scans and that I would, after the new preliminary which is, 4 of 5 or 5 of 5 correct hits for a win, would then for the final, need to get 7 of 10 correct for the win?
Is that correct?

Just because one person can't handle this doesn't mean that Jeff can't.

I'm sure we'll hear from the guy who wears plaid dresses, oh I forgot kilts.
We’ll get to see how he interprets, in his mind, all of this. Seems to come out checkered.

:popcorn1
 
edge, I've already stated that any effort on my part is on hold until JREF decides whether they are going to entertain further protocol discussions.
 
I read this and here it is,
At this time, it is my recommendation that the JREF cease protocol negotiations with Mr. Guska based on the lack of clarity in all communications with him thus far.

Jeff is reviewing the case, and will let us know whether or not we continue or stop.

~Remie
Click to expand...
Well let’s see, I agreed to her last e-mail, so how clear do I need to be?

The one thing that we are in disagreement was sand being used for the dummy containers, and that I need these things also to make sure they understand.

And I quote: Targets pass on one spot.

Only the metal is picked out.

A break after a set of ten is done.

The dummies contain lime, 9 of them, not sand at which point is this became confusing?

One person on their side to confirmed the truth about my picks.
Some one of my choosing, a friend, a believer.

Sand contains a static charge; this will interfere with my readings….
Sand has quartz in it and various amounts.

We’ll let Spectator write it.


Again my letter to them,

Hi Remie,

Quote: from you, Remie V,
Thank you for your patience. The final protocol will
be in this e-mail, though I ask you to keep in mind
that Randi must sign off on any protocol before the
process to begin testing.

You will come to a location, so far unspecified, and
find a spot within said location that has no "reading"
on your dowsing rods. You will then leave the room
while a cannister (what kind of cannister? Film?
Coffee?) is placed. You will return to the room and
dowse for the target metal (either gold or silver, to
be determined based upon availability).

You will dowse the single cannister and leave the room
while a second is placed. The process will continue
for ten cannisters. One of those will definitely
contain the target metal. The other nine in each set
will definitely not.

You will then be allowed a short break (about ten
minutes) and return to dowse the next set of ten in
the same fashion.

You will be asked to dowse ten sets of ten cannisters
in this fashion.

You will not be permitted to touch the cannisters. The
JREF will have a volunteer standing by to place them.
You will not be permitted to watch when the cannisters
are switched.

A positive result for the preliminary test will be
identifying the target substance (of either gold or
silver) correctly in seven out of the ten sets of ten.


Let me know if this protocol works for you, and please
answer the questions above as concisely as possible.

Thank you again for your patience,

JREF Challenge Desk

So far this is all good, so yes.


.
Then She asks this,
Quote:
If we are doing this outside, we would need to fill
the canisters partially with sand to ensure the empty
ones didn't blow away. They would all have the same
amount of sand, making them equal weight, but if the
target metal was inside a canister (with the sand)
that one would indeed weigh more.

Still workable?

Me,
No but you can use lime a 5 pound bag bought at Ace
Hardware should do.
You get nine plastic bags of sufficient size and
strenth and distribute the lime in each bag all
weighing the same 9 of them.
That way you could switch easily between the target
and the dummy with the bag of lime in it.
The one with the target is only holding the target.


Now this is what I need also,


Quote:Me,

All they have to do is agree to these conditions.
I scan on one spot.
Nine empty, and one with the target, in a
ten-container pass.
(The same way it was done before)"empty", one
container that will hold the target, and 9 containers
without or, empty.
Or if they prefer 9 containers with lime in them, as a
dummies.

When the ten of a set has passed, I say where the
target is. Then we take a break.
One person, of my choosing to be on their side,
against me, and working for them.
This should take between 400 and 600 minutes.
I don't think I'm asking for much.
There!

SezMe, or myself might provide target.
Now can we get pass this part, RemieV?

I have more to work out like place and the time.
SezMe may have more input on this too, if we do the
preliminary up here at Coffee creek.

Which then the JREF, will make him and a person of his
choosing your representatives to run the preliminary
on me. That’s something you'll have to discuss with
him.

Mike Guska




Some one is lying.
If it’s a time issue LMAO, then the Old man and Spectator have figured a way around that issue, so I feel that it’s JREF that’s running scared now…

I have had my people here read what I write, they don't have any problems understanding, unless they are Scottish!
:popcorn1
 
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SezMe said:
edge, I've already stated that any effort on my part is on hold until JREF decides whether they are going to entertain further protocol discussions.
Click to expand...

You mean to tell me you can't answer this,
:Ok SezMe I’ll ask again HOW LONG DID THAT TEST OF TEN SCANS TAKE AFTER THE SET UP?
Click to expand...
Come on tell the truth.
Ahh peer pressure.
You are running scared and doing so behind the scenes.
 
Edge, people who don't know you have problems understanding your writings for three obvious reasons:
First, you do not use correct grammar - especially punctuation.
Second, you weave in lots of typos.
And third, when describing something you seem to have a hard time putting the right words together.

This is not intended to put you down. I'm simply trying to point out to you what is very obvious to most of us.

Even after several re-readings of your posts, especially the longer ones, I have to guess what you intend to say.



And I reiterate: If a reward of USD 1,000,000 doesn't incite you to negotiate in good faith and with maximum efficiency, I assume you do not want to be tested.
 
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GzuzKryzt said:
Edge, people who don't know you have problems understanding your writings for three obvious reasons:
First, you do not use correct grammar - especially punctuation.
Second, you weave in lots of typos.
And third, when describing something you seem to have a hard time putting the right words together.

This is not intended to put you down. I'm simply trying to point out to you what is very obvious to most of us.

Even after several re-readings of your post, especially the longer ones, I have to guess what you intend to say.



And I reiterate: If a reward of USD 1,000,000 doesn't incite you to negotiate in good faith and with maximum efficiency, I assume you do not want to be tested.
Click to expand...

We will let Spectator write it then.

I let him know when it's complete.

It’s almost there.
 
edge said:
You mean to tell me you can't answer this,

Come on tell the truth.
Ahh peer pressure.
You are running scared and doing so behind the scenes.
Click to expand...

Full Disclosure: edge has somehow cracked my PM inbox so I have to make a full confession here. Yes, I have been absolutely bombarded with PMs urging me in no uncertain terms not to answer edge's question. GzuzKryzt. Spektator. EHocking. They've been unmerciful. Which is mild compared to Reno's presence. Like ugly on a monkey wearing a beret.

So I've been runing and hidng to the best of my abilities. And scared? You bet. The skid marks in my shorts defy description.

But edge has called me out so I'll come clean: I dunno know, edge. We didn't time it. 60-90 minutes, I'd guess. What is your memory?
 
SezMe said:
Full Disclosure: edge has somehow cracked my PM inbox so I have to make a full confession here. Yes, I have been absolutely bombarded with PMs urging me in no uncertain terms not to answer edge's question. GzuzKryzt. Spektator. EHocking. They've been unmerciful. Which is mild compared to Reno's presence. Like ugly on a monkey wearing a beret.

So I've been runing and hidng to the best of my abilities. And scared? You bet. The skid marks in my shorts defy description.

But edge has called me out so I'll come clean: I dunno know, edge. We didn't time it. 60-90 minutes, I'd guess. What is your memory?
Click to expand...

40 to 60 minutes.
Are they really?
Why would they do that?

They can't say it's a time issue with the way Spectator is writing it,
"the new protocol".

I do believe this can be proven now, why suppress it?
I wouldn’t hack into your pm box, but I do get weird vibes though.

I come in here early in the morning and late at night plus my vision isn’t too good.
Except for today and a few other times, I’m pretty tired when I write.

. And scared? You bet.
Click to expand...

You got to be joking?
You want to explain this, PM me.
 
edge, Sez Me was just joking. I haven't PM'ed anyone.

I don't know statistics, so I don't know if 4 out of 5 will be an acceptable test result for the JREF. If you're confident you can get 5 out of 5, go for that; or see if they'll accept 4 out of 5 as passing.

Here's the protocol. See if you think it will work, and if it looks ok, cut and paste it and try it on JREF.

PROTOCOL FOR DOWSING TEST

The claim: The dowser can successfully detect the presence of a concealed target consisting of 5 ounces of silver 4 times in 5 runs of ten attempts each, with a one-in-ten possibility of identifying the target by chance alone in each of the five runs.

Material required:
1 target, 5 oz. silver
1 5-lb bag of lime
10 11-ounce plastic coffee containers numbered 1-10
Scale

Procedure:

The dowser will attempt to locate the target hidden inside one of the containers. There will be five runs of ten containers each, numbered 1-10. In each run, the target will be present in one container only, and the other nine containers will be stabilized by eight ounces of lime.

The containers will be prepared this way: In nine of the containers for each trial there will be eight ounces of lime. These are the dummy containers. In the remaining container there will be three ounces of lime plus the five-ounce target. The target container will be determined by a random process. An individual we will call the randomizer will prepare the containers for each run; the dowser will have a representative who will verify that the container with the target actually does contain the target. This will be done by the randomizer’s preparing five lists, consisting of numbers from 1-10. When the target container has been selected and prepared the randomizer will mark a T in the space opposite that number on the list; the dowser’s representative will initial the sheet to show that it is correct. At no time will the randomizer or the dowser’s representative be in verbal, electronic, or visual communication with the dowser; if the dowser somehow does come into contact with the randomizer or the representative, that run will be declared null and void.

Before the test begins, the dowser will locate a specific spot on which all the containers will be placed, one at a time, for his dowsing test. The scale will be set up so that the dowser can attach his dowsing rod to it directly over the spot where the containers will be placed.

The dowser will then move away to a waiting area and will be out of sight of the testing area at the beginning of each trial. The dowser will witness the recording of the dowser's readings by initialling each numbered list after the run of ten is complete.

The randomizer will choose one of the containers in which to place the target for each run of ten. The randomizer will prepare the containers and mark the list; the dowser’s second representative will initial the list to signify that it is complete. The randomizer will signal (perhaps by blowing a whistle in a particular pattern: long-short-long, for example) the placement team when the containers are ready. The randomizer and second dowser’s representative will leave the area, and the placement team will then come to the preparation area and will one by one move the containers to the test spot for the dowsing attempt. The placement team will not know which container conceals the target.

The placement team will take each container to the test site, place it on the test spot the dowser has located, and signal the dowser. Then the placement team will leave before the dowser arrives with his observer and the JREF observer(s).

The dowser will use his dowsing rod on each container and will say whether the container does or does not contain the silver target.

When the dowser has stated this, the observer will record his opinion on a sheet numbered 1-10. If the dowser says the target is present, the number corresponding to the container will be marked T. If not, the number will be marked 0. There can be only one T in each run of ten containers. Both the observer and the dowser will initial the finished test sheet after each run of ten.

The process will be repeated five times, with the target randomly placed in a container for each time and with each container placed on the same spot for each dowsing attempt. After each container is removed, the placement team will wait a minimum of three minutes before placing the next container. After each run of ten dowsing attempts, the dowser will have a rest period of ten minutes.

At the end of all 5 runs (50 dowsing trials), all participants will compare the observers' list with T marked to show which containers the dowser believes hold the target and the randomizer's record of which containers actually held the target. Until that time, the randomizer and dowser's representative will not communicate with the dowser and the JREF observer in any way.

To succeed, the dowser will have to correctly identify the target container four out of five times. If the dowser correctly identifies the target container three out of five times or less, that will be a failure.
 
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The goalposts have never changed, the standard has always been 1 in 10,000 for the preliminary. Since the links to the appropriate tables have been posted here several times, just in the last month, I would expect anyone interested in challenging to at least have the tables bookmarked.

I'm sure it is a good sign that edge will now accept some help in drawing up a protocol. It may be too late, though. I'm mystified as to why he didn't accept help months ago from the numerous offers. I actually sympathize a bit with edge concerning the negotiations with jref, I would hate to see his test rejected at this point on the grounds of incoherency or excessive stipulations.
 
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