Spektator
Is that right?
I do not know, but I think, that number 15 is wrong. You will have to meet higher odds in the second test--maybe finding just one target out of 100. However, I do not know this, and I'm sure someone will correct me.
jsfisher
ETcorngods survivor
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Edge is claiming he can succeed 7 times in 10 trials. The math is a little complicated because he allows himself up to 3 failures anywhere during the trials, but if I did the math correctly, he's working at roughly 1 in 100,000 chance of success by luck alone.
Not quite the 1,000,000 to 1 odds some have suggested would be needed for the final, but more than sufficient for the preliminary trial.
By the way, at 4 successes out of 5 trials, Edge would be above the 1 in 1,000 mark while cutting the time commitment in half.
Klaymore
Critical Thinker
As long as the odds of passing the test by chance alone are no better than 1:1000, the JREF would probably accept the same test twice. The odds of passing a 1:1000 test twice in a row are 1:1,000,000.
When I took the test in Ldale the first time before i went into the office i checked the ground out side to see what I would feel there and it is similar to any other ground i have tested.
There are major attractions and blank or neutral spots so there shouldn't be a problem finding a suitable spot to test in any where down there.
I will do a test here, probably several as I need a suitable target plus check my two base lines to make sure here in Palm Bay I get a low number for the non target container and the highest number for the target when it is placed.
Should be a breeze.
As far as duration of test I will find all that out soon EHockings’ idea seems to be the way to cut that time factor in half.
The less time I spend dowsing the better for me as I explaned it in the paranormal part of the forum.
Marcus I haven't done this in a while but yes I will self test and do more experimenting very soon tofine tune it, what I find next will determan if I should procced or not.
vIQleS yep I need to fine tune it to make sure they understand it, it's a great deal to do and be clear on so we can do the whole test with out any excuses from both sides, I'll make those changes and we will all view the final protocol.
Fri.8/09 my time 9: 46
CynicalSkeptic
Master Poster
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If he can dowse each set of 10 in say 30 minutes, that's only 5 hours of dowsing. That should leave plenty of time for setup and breaks.
I'm not sure how reasonable that is. That's 3 minutes per container including time to swap out the containers. Edge is that possible? I seem to remember in your test with SezMe it took longer as the day went on, is that correct?
The protocol as Edge has written is by far the most coherent I've seen from him yet. Below is my attempt at writing Edge's protocol up more along the lines of what JREF expects while following his requirements as I understand them. Also, I'm only focusing on the actual steps of the dowsing, and not getting terribly specific about his equipment (like no magnets) or how to isolate everyone.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Materials:
10 Identical 34 oz Plastic Coffee Containers (specify color/brand, etc.), empty with foil seal completely removed, numbered 1-10 with permanent ink
1 20 lb. bag of rice (specify color/grain/brand, etc.)
1 10 sided die
Gold taget, weighing no more than 3 ounces.
Two Isolated areas: Perperation & Dowsing. The Dowsing area shall be pre-selected by Edge as free from interference with his abilities.
To be double blinded there will be 3 groups or "teams" of people. 1 JREF rep, and one witness for Edge will be on each team (on team 3, it will be Edge himself).
T1: Target placement team
T2: Container moving team
T3: Dowsing team
Perparation.
--- The following steps will be performed only by T1 in the Preperation Area. Members of T2 & T3 can not witness.
1. Fill all 10 containers with precisely 2 lbs. of rice.
2. Roll the 10 sided die
3. Record the die roll
4. Remove [the weight of the target] ounces of rice from, and place the target in the container corresponding to the die roll
5. Place the lids and seal all the containers in such a way that any evidence of tampering will be obvious (JREF will probably require more detail)
6. Team 1 shall leave the perparation area with their data from step 3.
--- The following steps shall be performed only by T2.
7. Deliver a single container to the dowsing area (can they be in sequential order, or does the order need to be shuffled?).
8. Edge shall have 3 minutes to dowse and declare whether the target exists in that container or not.
9. Edge's decision will be recorded.
10. The container will be removed back to the preparation area.
(repeat 7-10 for all 10 containers)
---
11. T1 & T2 shall verify the seals have not been tampered with.
12. Empty the contents of all containers recording the container holding the target, and verifying that all other containers only held ballast.
13. T1 shall validate that the correct container held the target as recorded in step 3.
14. T2 shall leave the preperation area.
(Repeat 1-14 for all 10 passes.)
15. T1 & T3 compare results.
For the open test, steps 5 & 11 shall be skipped, and all teams can witness all steps.
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Startz
Muse
How many hits are required here for the test to be a success?
Referring to the highlighted parts: That is not good enough, edge. The JREF will not approve an application with you saying things like this.
You will have to be absolutely sure that you can do your stuff down there. Indicating beforehand that you might settle on the best spot available if you do not find a perfect spot will very likely prompt the JREF to reject your proposal.
You will need to name a specific location, as in, for example: Fort Lauderdale, Poinciana Park just south of the JREF Office.
The more specific, the better.
For example: Near the bus station SE 3 a/SE 14 SA on SE 3rd Ave.
Edge, anyone: During the 2002 test, the noted average dowsing time for each of the ten cups was a whopping 8 1/2 minutes. That alone accounts for 85 minutes. And it does not include changing the cups, stepping away in the safety area, etc.
You will have to make sure you can do it in significantly less time. Or there simply will be no test at all.
I will refrain from pointing out that you are already contradicting yourself again by saying
when you have said in your OP before the threads were merged that
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Come on....Its not that complicated, just leave those parts to me, hell they can name the park the house what ever. I will find what I need in any park, house property as long as it’s out side.
Now you guys are thinking.
I got the material for the tripod tonight.
Yes that's about right. you could say four. it took about 40 minutes or so ...max.
Now you guys are thinking.
I got the material for the tripod tonight.
EHocking
Penultimate Amazing
I posted earlier on his original protocol attempt (my bolding)
10 passes of 5 containers (i.e. 50 in total) would require a success rate of 8 to beat odds of 1:10,000.
ETA. I see from post 4 from JREF in the original Challenge thread that the odds given to beat for edge are indeed 1:10,000.
"A positive result for the preliminary test will be identifying the target substance (of either gold or silver) correctly in seven out of the ten sets of ten."
Great. This provides you with a perfect out. Let me phrase it for you:
"They would not let me pick the place. They insisted on [insert location], but I could not find a suitable spot there so I had to make do with what they gave me and that's why I failed."
No, edge. You know you have to pick the location or else the JREF will not accept your protocol, given the previous experience with you, your test and your forum history.
If you can not be more specific, I see no reason for the JREF to accept your protocol proposal along with your application. (Academic affidavit pending, of course.)
Can you put that in a definite time frame for your entire proposed protocol? Something like this:
"My preliminary test will run a maximum of ___ minutes. I have done this before and I am able to do it under controlled conditions."
Startz
Muse
Sorry I missed the earlier post. Perhaps Edge might tell us whether what fraction of the time he dowses correctly. If it works all the time, then the number of trials might be reduced to save time.
EHocking
Penultimate Amazing
We have been at this point before at least two more times during edge's odyssey to another controlled test.
When the proposed test duration was a sensible two to three hours, edge started claiming he couldn't do it at the proposed success rate and hence needed more trials.
You can see easily edge's inability or unwillingness to stick to a fixed proposal in the last couple of dozen posts:
1. The target can be any metal became I have to find a suitable target.
2. Any area outside became pretty much any area outside.
CynicalSkeptic
Master Poster
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The protocol has to be nailed down 100% absolute before the test, JREF won't let anything just be left up to you (or them).
Edited by Gaspode:
Edited for topic - moderated thread
All it takes for you to get your application on track is to check the following list - and since you said an application would not make sense before you had a protocol, we're doing this your way. Call it an extended hand if you will.
1. Name a specific test location. Get a permit, if needed.
Example: "I will do the test in Fort Lauderdale, Poinciana Park."
2. Name a specific target.
Example: "I will dowse for one piece of silver of one ounce. The silver will be hidden in a coffee mug."
3. Clearly state the number of trials and the expected test duration based on your self-tests.
Example: "I will do twenty passes of the target. Target can be either the silver or a dummy of exactly the same weight."
Example: "Not more than ten minutes per pass. A break of up to 30 minutes after ten passes, if needed. Total maximum test duration: 20 x 10 minutes plus 20 x 5 minutes for changing the target plus 30 minutes break time = 330 minutes or five and a half hours."
Example: "Before each pass, a six-sided die will be rolled to determine what will be put in the coffee mug. Odd numbers will mean the dummy, even numbers the silver."
4. Tell us what will mean a successful test.
Example: "If I get 15 or less correct the test will be called a failure. If I get 16 or more correct, the test will be called successful."
5. Make sure you have a written academic support.
Example: "I, [the undersigned], have witnessed a demonstration of the claimed ability by Mr. Mike Guska and I can offer no rational explanation for it."
Come on. You can do this.
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James knows I can dowse and has film on U-Tube stating so and a couple of other blurbs as Tricky says in News Week not to mention SezMes’ test.
If that’s a stickler for the test then that may take a little time.
I haven't dowsed since I left California that's been about 10 months ago.
How ever I have made a tripod and tested the theory in my yard and it took only a few minutes to set up and test.
I need a wider spread in my base line numbers for target and non-target comparison.
I will have to go the Ldale first to find a spot, I am not ready yet till I get a suitable target.
I am working on that, it all hinges on that, I don't want to use the silver tray because of size and I am sure that JREF would want to do this later when the weather cools down a bit.
So these two points I need to get before I send it in and I need to make sure I can actually do this and it all takes time, because if I send it in I will be sure I can do this, I am not going to fail again.
I doubt that I will need a permit but I might have to reserve a spot.
I'm sure James would go for it, for another chance to trash me.
If that’s a stickler for the test then that may take a little time.
I haven't dowsed since I left California that's been about 10 months ago.
How ever I have made a tripod and tested the theory in my yard and it took only a few minutes to set up and test.
I need a wider spread in my base line numbers for target and non-target comparison.
I will have to go the Ldale first to find a spot, I am not ready yet till I get a suitable target.
I am working on that, it all hinges on that, I don't want to use the silver tray because of size and I am sure that JREF would want to do this later when the weather cools down a bit.
So these two points I need to get before I send it in and I need to make sure I can actually do this and it all takes time, because if I send it in I will be sure I can do this, I am not going to fail again.
I doubt that I will need a permit but I might have to reserve a spot.
I'm sure James would go for it, for another chance to trash me.
CynicalSkeptic
Master Poster
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Fair enough. I'm actually glad that you're working to narrow down your target and also nail down the exact location.
Don't worry about the weather. I'm sure it'll take a while to finalize the protocol negotiations. Might was well start as soon as possible.
--Of course now I'm anticipating that the whether will have in affect. He'll do his tests in the summer, and when he tries to take the test in January or February, it's not gonna work because of the change in conditions.
Paulhoff
You can't expect perfection.
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The stickler is the academic support. You will need it or your application won't be accepted - barring decision by the JREF.
I think it's great that you intend to self-test thoroughly.
I also think that you are contradicting yourself again because you said earlier that you could dowse for any metal in any outside location.