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Moderated Dowsing By Edge

You get $1M, and JREF gets to publish the results. That's more than fair, you come out WAY ahead. Just go ahead and take the challenge.

If that's the way it is ok.

I test myself all the time I live it, for now.

I'am waiting to hear from Jeff.
 
edge said:
You get $1M, and JREF gets to publish the results. That's more than fair, you come out WAY ahead. Just go ahead and take the challenge.

If that's the way it is ok.

I test myself all the time I live it, for now.

I'am waiting to hear from Jeff.
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You haven't described a double blind test yet, so by all appearances your self-testing is pretty much worthless as far as being evidence.

And if you want to hear from JREF, send in you application. They are required to respond to them, even if they are self-deluded woo-woos. They are not required to respond to e-mails from self-deluded woo-woos.
 
edge said:
I test myself all the time I live it, for now.
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Let me be more specific. Do you test yourself IN THE EXACT MANNER that you expect for the challenge?

Do you have SOMEONE ELSE hide the material before you do your special dowsing?
 
Ladewig said:
Let me be more specific. Do you test yourself IN THE EXACT MANNER that you expect for the challenge?

Do you have SOMEONE ELSE hide the material before you do your special dowsing?
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And that's only a single blind. For a double blind, no-one who is present when you dowse can know where the target is, lest they inadvertantly give the dowser subtle clues.

It takes three people minimum, a dowser, an observer and a "hider". Here's how it works. While both the dowser and the observer are not present, the third person hides the target using a random number to select which of the positions to hide the target in, then that person records the target locaton and leaves the vicinity before the dowser or observer arrive so that there can be no contact, visual or otherwise between anyone present at the test and the person hiding the target. (Alternatively, you can set up a video camera to use as an observer, provided you don't look at the recording until the test is fully completed).

The dowser identifies what he thinks is the correct target and it is recorded. Then the process is repeated until a statistically valid number of tests are performed. For ease of calculation, ten is the usual number for a preliminary test.

This is similar to what JREF will most likely require. Easy, right?
 
Tricky said:
And that's only a single blind. For a double blind, no-one who is present when you dowse can know where the target is, lest they inadvertantly give the dowser subtle clues.

It takes three people minimum, a dowser, an observer and a "hider". ...
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If you are completely honest, and only want to practise your skills or test yourself, you can do it with only one person to assist you.

If I understand correctly, this is how I would suggest a practise or self-test scenario:

Fill One can with target ("black sand"/gold/whatever) and the other (4? 9?) with regular sand that does not interfere with your dowsing.

Get cardboard boxes to hide the cans. Number them.

Your friend places the target under a randomly chosen cardboard box and the regular sand cans under the other ones. He then moves all the cardboard boxes slightly. Obviously you do not peek. :)

You figure out which box contains the target using dowsing, without your friend even watching you.

Take a note of the result. Repeat.

If you can do this significantly better than chance without cheating, you will win the million easily. If you can not, practise more and don't apply until you can. Good luck!

Ririon
 
Ririon said:
If you are completely honest, and only want to practise your skills or test yourself, you can do it with only one person to assist you.

If I understand correctly, this is how I would suggest a practise or self-test scenario:

Fill One can with target ("black sand"/gold/whatever) and the other (4? 9?) with regular sand that does not interfere with your dowsing.

Get cardboard boxes to hide the cans. Number them.

Your friend places the target under a randomly chosen cardboard box and the regular sand cans under the other ones. He then moves all the cardboard boxes slightly. Obviously you do not peek. :)

You figure out which box contains the target using dowsing, without your friend even watching you.

Take a note of the result. Repeat.

If you can do this significantly better than chance without cheating, you will win the million easily. If you can not, practise more and don't apply until you can. Good luck!

Ririon
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You are correct. But that is still a single blind. If you are completely honest, it should be close to the same accuracy as the double blind, but it is so hard to keep from "accidentally" doing something, like nudging the boxes or being imprecise about which box you picked. Perhaps someone else could describe where error might enter.

I believe Edge is being honest about his self-trials, but I do not believe he is capable of acheiving the results he has indicated if the test were double-blinded. I think there is sensory leakage somewhere.
 
Tricky said:
You are correct. But that is still a single blind. If you are completely honest, it should be close to the same accuracy as the double blind, but it is so hard to keep from "accidentally" doing something, like nudging the boxes or being imprecise about which box you picked. Perhaps someone else could describe where error might enter.

I believe Edge is being honest about his self-trials, but I do not believe he is capable of acheiving the results he has indicated if the test were double-blinded. I think there is sensory leakage somewhere.
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As long as he is honest and writes things down, this setup eliminates accidental "sensory leakage" as you put it. And he doesn't have to bother more than one friend...

But then there is the issue of "cherry-picking". Say he used ten cans. One day he gets it right 15 % of the time. "Great, let me get on the forum to brag". The next day he gets it right 5 % of the time. "Oh, I wasn't quite on form today. And those pesky solar flares are messing with me. I'll disregard that." And so on.

This is another way for him to cheat himself. If he averages over his good days (or good sessions) he will score consistently better than the expected 10 %. The JREF will do no such thing, of course.
 
Ririon said:
As long as he is honest and writes things down, this setup eliminates accidental "sensory leakage" as you put it. And he doesn't have to bother more than one friend...

But then there is the issue of "cherry-picking". Say he used ten cans. One day he gets it right 15 % of the time. "Great, let me get on the forum to brag". The next day he gets it right 5 % of the time. "Oh, I wasn't quite on form today. And those pesky solar flares are messing with me. I'll disregard that." And so on.

This is another way for him to cheat himself. If he averages over his good days (or good sessions) he will score consistently better than the expected 10 %. The JREF will do no such thing, of course.
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Yeah, but Edge has a great deal of emotional investment in this. It is so great that he lied to Randi at the first test, or at least he changed his story later. He's been caught in several other self-contradictions too. I don't believe he even realizes he's doing it, so deep is his self-deception.

So we know that Edge is capable of being dishonest in testing. That is the reason no single-blind results can be trusted from him. Frankly, history tells us not to trust any results from him without an independant observer.
 
Tricky said:
Yeah, but Edge has a great deal of emotional investment in this. It is so great that he lied to Randi at the first test, or at least he changed his story later. He's been caught in several other self-contradictions too. I don't believe he even realizes he's doing it, so deep is his self-deception.

So we know that Edge is capable of being dishonest in testing. That is the reason no single-blind results can be trusted from him. Frankly, history tells us not to trust any results from him without an independant observer.
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Could not agree more. I would not trust positive dowsing results from anybody without an independant observer. I am just in a constructive and trusting mood today. :)
 
edge said:
You get $1M, and JREF gets to publish the results. That's more than fair, you come out WAY ahead. Just go ahead and take the challenge.

If that's the way it is ok.

I test myself all the time I live it, for now.

I'am waiting to hear from Jeff.
Click to expand...
Edge, send in an application and you will hear from Jeff.
 
hmmm if you can find gold so easily, why bother taking the challenge? just find more gold. It seems hard for you understand the test protocols, instead you want to redefine them. Why bother. Just approach a mining company and show them all the gold you find.

Did I read you wrong?
 
hellaeon said:
hmmm if you can find gold so easily, why bother taking the challenge? just find more gold. It seems hard for you understand the test protocols, instead you want to redefine them. Why bother. Just approach a mining company and show them all the gold you find.

Did I read you wrong?
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Arguing hypothetically, it could be that he seeks recognition of his abilities as real. He could make money working for miners, and still be questioned. Passing the Challenge would go a long way towards recognition of his abilities or technique.
 
It is also not a sure thing that the mining companies would give him a million dollars for some emails and a couple of hours' work in the local park.
 
steenkh said:
It is also not a sure thing that the mining companies would give him a million dollars for some emails and a couple of hours' work in the local park.
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True, but if he really could reliably find gold or any number of other minerals, they would hire him at a pretty darn good salary. But very successful mining companies don't use dowsers. I wonder why that is?
 
Tricky said,
Out of ten tests on ten targets each? That's a minimum of five correct in selecting the correct one out of ten targets? I'm sure this will be satisfactory. Law of average says you only get one out of ten correct.
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That’s not what happens when you mine, the law of average has nothing to do with it.
My percentage on the creek is way higher.
More like 85% correct in finding a good quantity.
And yes 10 targets in ten tries.
Once open and once closed.
I’ll do the open test one handed.

And you say this,
No they won't. You have been told this time and time again. It is quite clearly stated in rule 6.

Here’s rule 6 All of the applicant's expenses such as transportation, accommodation, materials, assistants, and/or all other costs for any persons or procedures incurred in pursuit of the reward, are the sole responsibility of the applicant. Neither the JREF nor JR will bear any of the costs.

Applicant’s expenses..........

Not J.R.E.F. and if so I’ll need a couple of days into dredging season which starts July 1st. To accomplish their expenses with the ground that I’m going to, remember pounds, is my reading?

And besides how could they not afford to travel in order to sell their ideas after all they are willing to give a million away you would think to promote themselves they could afford a motel or a camping trip?

Now if they want to sell their ideas and sell the skeptical news I’m sure they only mean Applicant’s expenses..........
And you say,
The testers are giving up their time without compensation. Nobody should have to shell out their own money to feed your delusions.

Never know who’s delusional and there you go calling names shame on you!
The testers are on the clock any way and getting out of the office is a good thing.

Tricky you act like you work for them, let’s see what they have to say, because I can always get Gary to test me.
I’m sure he could afford a trip from Phoenix since he took an interest.

I can see why you’re so down on the idea of a possibility that this could work being the resident geologist and all. But that’s your problem.

Completely incorrect. The exact definition of what constitutes a successful test is set out in advance. It is a legally binding contract. You do realize, however, that this is just a preliminary test, right? True, no one has passed a preliminary test yet, but the rules quite clearly state that there must be a final test. The setup would be exactly the same, but you would be required to provide a more statistically significant sample, or for your case, more repetitions. At least that is the way I understand it.
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Then you don’t understand it, every dowser passes the preliminary test it’s the closed test that is the problem.

That will be a deal killer, Edge. You don't get to change the rules.
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It’s more like a clarification of the rules that’s all.

In other words they can have all the news they want but not the credit from the further knowledge or theory’s.


Skeptator said,

Okay, so specify the total number of containers you'll be using (I assumed 10, nine without a target, one with a target).
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That’s right.


Ladewig said,
So, Edge, have you been practicing under the same conditions that you hope will be adopted for the challenge?

If you have a friend fill up one can with the special sand and randomly place it (a deck of cards might be a good way of generating a random placement) among the other cans, then you can see how easy or hard it is to hit 50%.

Many applicants forget the very important step of testing themselves under controlled conditions before applying.
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Yes I have.
I haven’t forgot.

That’s exactly right Ririon.

gnome said,
Arguing hypothetically, it could be that he seeks recognition of his abilities as real. He could make money working for miners, and still be questioned. Passing the Challenge would go a long way towards recognition of his abilities or technique.
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That’s true and besides I work for myself. If I pass this it’s worth more than working for a mining company.

No matter what, you guys are helping me to fill in the holes.

There’s a meadow on a piece of property that I’m trying to talk some one into open pit type operation.
I’ll let you know about this spot.
Never been mined and it’s the best hits on the property.
No cues in a flat meadow, it’s only in one spot that’s worth opening up.
20x40 foot pit, if we get more that a pound we will be successful, I’ll let you know.
hellaeon hmmm if you can find gold so easily, why bother taking the challenge? just find more gold. It seems hard for you understand the test protocols, instead you want to redefine them. Why bother. Just approach a mining company and show them all the gold you find.

Did I read you wrong?
Click to expand...

Yes
 
"Then you don’t understand it, every dowser passes the preliminary test it’s the closed test that is the problem."

What??? No one has ever passed the preliminary test. And got to the final test. No dowser ever have done the final test!
 
If I pass this test I'll have my own mining company.
Technically speaking there are better ways to find gold with satellite technology and metal detectors.
But it's not about that.
 
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