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Didja Hear About Iran?

Time Magazine (online): Was Ahmadinejad's Win Rigged? - Five Reasons to suspect Iran's Election Results

Christian Science Monitor: Was Iran's election rigged? Here's what is known so far

Those are two of the better articles out there on the questions about the election we know so far. The biggest early skepticism came from Ahmadinejad claiming victory right away (which, admittedly, caused Moussavi to claim victory in response), the nearly opposite numbers of the votes to the known representative regions that were clearly favoring Moussavi, and the practical landslide win on what was (up until the day of voting) looking to be a very close election. Also, Khamenei didn't wait the three days to announce the winner as was customary, which doesn't seem like much on its own but definitely sparked distrust. Honestly, if Ahmadinejad had won by only a few percentage points (maybe 54% to 46%) or less, it's doubtful that there would be any protesting in the streets right now. Later on reports of ballots were coming in at higher numbers than the populations in the cities, a couple claiming to have a ballots in the percentage of about 141% to the number of voting citizens.
 
Cuddles said:
Out of interest, is there actually any evidence that the election was rigged? Obviously it's a little difficult to get reliable information at the moment, but it does seem that most of those involved in the protests are those with a horse in the race - someone who wants to be president, someone who wants to be Grand Ayatollah, and their supporters, especially students. Now, we may well support the things they claim to want, such as better education, democracy and so on, but that doesn't necessarily mean their claim of vote fixing that kicked all this off is actually true.

So what's the deal? Is there good evidence that the vote actually was fixed? Is this just being used as an excuse to start a revolution? Is it just being exploited by people looking for power? Do we actually have enough information to come to any kind of reliable conclusion?
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My best understanding is that there is no smoking gun, and there's unlikely to be one because of the lack of impartial observers. But there are some very suspicious, if circumstantial results- such as Ahmadinejad winning 60% of the vote in the heavily Kurdish province of Kermanshah, where he has virtually no support. Apparently, this is about as likely as Dick Cheney winning San Francisco's vote in a landslide.

There's a more statistical analysis of the vote results here. Their conclusion: it's fishy but there's no hard proof of fraud just from the numbers.
 
A video example of the damage done by Basij forces breaking into Tehran University overnight to beat on students who protested and to take some of them away. Keep in mind that this damage is said to have been done by government forces, not the protesters. These are students trying to record the damage done to where they go to school and live.



To download a bunch of videos (via Torrents), this page has a list.

Collection of photos from one of yesterday's rallies in Iran.

An e-mail from inside Iran to someone at NPR describes some of the brutality taking place.

Supreme Leader Khamenei is calling for a gathering of people for him to lead a special prayer (and speech) on Friday. The protesters are in a rough situation here, because this could very likely be a trap to arrest more protesters out in the open and not going could look like people are against Islam, which can be punishable by death.
 
GreNME said:
Time Magazine (online): Was Ahmadinejad's Win Rigged? - Five Reasons to suspect Iran's Election Results

Christian Science Monitor: Was Iran's election rigged? Here's what is known so far

Those are two of the better articles out there on the questions about the election we know so far. The biggest early skepticism came from Ahmadinejad claiming victory right away (which, admittedly, caused Moussavi to claim victory in response), the nearly opposite numbers of the votes to the known representative regions that were clearly favoring Moussavi, and the practical landslide win on what was (up until the day of voting) looking to be a very close election. Also, Khamenei didn't wait the three days to announce the winner as was customary, which doesn't seem like much on its own but definitely sparked distrust. Honestly, if Ahmadinejad had won by only a few percentage points (maybe 54% to 46%) or less, it's doubtful that there would be any protesting in the streets right now. Later on reports of ballots were coming in at higher numbers than the populations in the cities, a couple claiming to have a ballots in the percentage of about 141% to the number of voting citizens.
Click to expand...

Great links.
Here is another point Michael Totten made:
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has almost no support among Kurds whatsoever. Claiming he “won” 70 percent in Kermanshah is as outlandish as Dick Cheney winning San Francisco and Berkeley in a landslide.
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Yeah, good point. It wasn't just Kurdish areas, either. Almost all of the areas with a large non-Persian ethnic presence were mostly not supporting (or opposing outright) Ahmadinejad, and yet he won all of these areas by a huge margin.
 
Cuddles said:
Out of interest, is there actually any evidence that the election was rigged? Obviously it's a little difficult to get reliable information at the moment, but it does seem that most of those involved in the protests are those with a horse in the race - someone who wants to be president, someone who wants to be Grand Ayatollah, and their supporters, especially students. Now, we may well support the things they claim to want, such as better education, democracy and so on, but that doesn't necessarily mean their claim of vote fixing that kicked all this off is actually true.

So what's the deal? Is there good evidence that the vote actually was fixed? Is this just being used as an excuse to start a revolution? Is it just being exploited by people looking for power? Do we actually have enough information to come to any kind of reliable conclusion?
Click to expand...

Yes, there good evidence. Here it is.

The earliest MSNBC online report from Teheran (go to msn.com and look at the news reports) had a reporter specifically say that the ballots were to be checked by hand and in a country of over 10 million where more than 60 percent voted, it would be impossible for the election results to be announced so soon.

The man who said this is named "Richard Engel" he is NBC foreign correspondent. Google his name for his reports.

Strangely, tho, there is an unfortunate spin to all this that noone seems to be aware of. Our technology is unintentionally meddling in their affairs. We don't think so. But I can see how they would see it as such. So, once again, we are screwed. I think we had no idea that ousting the democratically elected president because he nationalized the oil companies would come back to bite us. But it did. I think we had no idea that allowing the Sha passage into the country would come back to bite us. But it did. I think we have no idea that our cultural and technological influence into Iran will come back to bite us. But I think it might.
 
I addition to Richard Engel, Gary Sick, a Columbia University professor and Iranian-affairs adviser for three U.S. Administrations, said that given the apparent record turnout, it would have been impossible to announce a definitive result so soon after the polls closed, because Iran does not use voting machines.

http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1904645_1904644_1904640,00.html

The Interior Ministry announced the first results within an hour of the polls closing.
 
alfaniner said:
I think tomorrow (maybe even now, in their time zone) things are going to hit the fan, big time.
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Maybe:

updated 46 minutes ago
In Iran, people await supreme leader's sermon

Scrutiny turns to Iran's supreme leader on Friday, when he will deliver a sermon to a nation that has been swept up in several days of post-election protests. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is to speak at mid-day Friday during prayers at Tehran University. Khamenei's speech will be scrutinized for signs of how the government plans to resolve the disputed presidential election. full story
 
I see a lot of claims from various Iranians in exile, or people presented as Iran experts, that they just can't 'believe' result X or Y. For example, that they somehow know that Ahmadinejad didn't have any support by Kurds or other ethnic groups, or that he 'could not' have won in big cities, or whatever. But what is this really based on?

Case in point: I'm a left winger myself. Most people I know are left wingers. Looking at my neighbourhood, and most places I know around where I live (Stockholm, Sweden), it would make a lot of sense to me that most people around here would vote to the left. Yet, that is consistently not the case when we actually have elections, or when credible opinion polls are made. There are clearly a lot of people around that don't vote the way I would expect them to vote, and/or entire demographic segments that I just don't have enough interaction with.

All polls I've seen from Iran predicted that Ahmadinejad would win handsomely. The only polls I've heard about that said otherwise are rumoured as 'secret government polls'. That sounds rather fishy to me. Also, while there's no denying that there are a lot of students protesting on the streets (and a few non-students as well), there's also no denying that the Ahmadinejad supporters have also been numerous.

Then we have this claim about results being announced too early. Well, I sort of followed the announcements of results on that night. Through Western media, I must admit. My clear memory though, was that the pace of results was quite similar to what we had here in Sweden when we had elections on June 7. It didn't take long before about 25% of the votes were counted, and because the Ahmadinejad margin was so large, it seemed very unlikely that final results would go in a completely different direction. I wept a bit and focused on other things.

And then there's this constantly reoccuring claim that results were the same from all parts of the country. Well, looking at the announced results from different regions, that just isn't true. They claim Ahmadinejad won in the Semnan province by 78% against 20%, but in Sistan/Balouchestan, Mousavi is said to have won with 52% against 46%.
 
Bill Thompson said:
I think this thread should merge with the one about the election in IRan (if it has not done so already)

Shouldn't this discussion merge with this one?
http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?p=4825593&posted=1#post4825593
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No, and I'd really appreciate it if you didn't hijack this thread to try to turn it into one specifically on the election. This one is focusing on the protests and the people there, which is why it's in the 'Social Issues and Current Events' section as opposed to the 'Politics' one. Please don't change that.
 
Well, the speech has been given, and it doesn't look especially good for the protesters.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/8108661.stm

How much power does the guardian council actually have relative to the Grand Ayatollah? Now that Khamenei has officially thrown his lot in with Ahmadinejad, is that pretty much game over, or could they challenge him without needing an actual revolution?
 
The WSJ has produced an article collecting many messages from people in Iran. For those of you who may have wanted a more linearly readable format: The Fear is Gone: Voices from Iran.

A video montage of Moussavi:


Included is a statement he made. Translation (of the statement/speech): "I have come due to concerns of current political and social conditions - to defend the rights of the nation. I have come to improve Iran's International relations. I have come to tell the world and return to Iran our pride, our dignity, our future. I have come to bring to Iran a future of freedom, of hope. I have come to represent the poor the helpless the hungry. I have come to be accountable to you my people and to this world.

Iran must participate in fair elections, it is a matter of national importance. I have come to you because of the corruption in Iran. 25% inflation means ignorance - thieving - corruption - where is the wealth of my nation? What have you done with $300 billion in last 4 years - where is the wealth of the nation? The next Government of Iran will be chosen by the people. Why do all our young want to leave this country?

I know of no creation who places himself ahead of 20 million of the nation. We are Muslims - what is happening in Iran's Government is a sin! This Government is not what Imam Khomeini wanted for Iran - I will change all this - This is the sea of green!!"

Independent.co.uk article lists some interesting things:
  • In an attempt to defuse calls for a rerun, Iran's Governing Council promised to listen to the candidates "express their ideas" about the election. It also said it was examining 646 complaints.
  • Meanwhile, it was clear where President Ahmadinejad wanted to place the blame for the crisis. He told his cabinet that the vote's legitimacy was being questioned because it was a "challenge to the West's democracy."
  • Also focusing on foreign elements, the Intelligence Ministry said that it had uncovered proof of a bomb plot backed by American elements. The bombs were apparently supposed to go off in polling stations on election day.
  • Iranian television showed former president Hashemi Rafsanjani's daughter, Faezeh Hashemi, rallying protesters. Hardliners accused her and her brother, Mahdi, of treason. The two were later barred from leaving Iran.
  • In an echo of Twitter's decision to cancel planned maintenance to help protesters, YouTube broke from its usual policy of barring violent videos so that Iranians could "capture their experiences for the world to see".

I'm trying to find a full transcript, but Khamenei's speech was, as predicted, fairly venomous toward the protesters, calling them against Islam, enemies of the state, and other similar phrases.
 
Cuddles said:
Well, the speech has been given, and it doesn't look especially good for the protesters.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/8108661.stm

How much power does the guardian council actually have relative to the Grand Ayatollah? Now that Khamenei has officially thrown his lot in with Ahmadinejad, is that pretty much game over, or could they challenge him without needing an actual revolution?
Click to expand...

The guy who wrote this book was on NPR this morning. He stated that the Supreme Leater is selected by an elected "Council of Experts", which have the power to overrule him on individual decisions or Impeach him outright. It wasn't clear to me whether this "Council of Experts" is the same as the Guardian Council.
 
Cuddles said:
Well, the speech has been given, and it doesn't look especially good for the protesters.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/8108661.stm

How much power does the guardian council actually have relative to the Grand Ayatollah? Now that Khamenei has officially thrown his lot in with Ahmadinejad, is that pretty much game over, or could they challenge him without needing an actual revolution?
Click to expand...

He could be challenged by the Council, but that wouldn't necessarily mean much without enough people and possibly some measure of force backing them for it to work. The Supreme Leader has his own small army (the IRG), and is considered an authority that "shouldn't" (though there are exceptions, like obvious transgressions on Islam) be challenged.

It's not really game over, but I highly doubt that any successful challenge of Khamenei could happen without at least something akin to a revolution (like these protests).

ETA: Al Jazeera live video feed for those interested. Every few minutes they go back to the issue of Iran, and they occasionally have people on their phone or reporting from Iran. There was one Moussavi supporter just a few minutes ago.
 
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Cuddles said:
Out of interest, is there actually any evidence that the election was rigged? ... Do we actually have enough information to come to any kind of reliable conclusion?
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According to the BBC:
Evil network of treacherous Radio said:
The way the result was announced was very unusual. It came out in blocks of millions of votes, in percentages, rather than being announced province-by-province as in past elections.
And as the blocks of votes came in, the percentages for each candidate changed very, very little. That suggested that Mr Ahmadinejad did equally well in rural and urban areas. Conversely, it suggested that the other three losing candidates did equally badly in their home regions and provinces.
This overturns all precedents in Iranian politics and there has been no explanation, despite repeated questions, from the authorities.
It is all very suspicious. But it does not necessarily mean there has been widespread electoral fraud. For example, a group of international pollsters did an independent telephone survey three weeks ago which suggested a two-to-one level of popular support for Mr Ahmadinejad over Mr Mousavi, with the other candidates on less than two percent each.
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I've also seen claims that the turnout was something like 140%, but not confirmed ones. So no, still nothing absolutely concrete. I think it's kind of gone beyond evidence now anyway, everyone has made their mind up one way or the other and are unlikely to believe anything the other side says to the contrary. And now it's a question of whether the protests fizzle out or explode, I suppose.
 
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updated 28 minutes ago
Chants against West punctuate defiant speech

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei sent a clear message after days of protests: Enough is enough. With more demonstrations possible Saturday, Khamenei warned: Those who "take wrong measures which are harmful, they will be held accountable for all violence." He was interrupted by chants of "Death to America" and "Death to Israel." full story
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So the protesters already forgot about the election fraud thingy then? :D
 
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