Cold Reading Demos at TAM2

Thanz said:

It is what I surmise based on their postings. I could not tell you their backgrounds.

I will say again, however, that one doesn't necessarily need a background in statistics to talk about a logical counting method for JE transcripts.

Thanz I for one haven't got a clue any longer...

As I understand it this thread is now under investigation by Amnesty International since it was revealed it has been used during the interrogation of prisoners in Guantanamo Bay; they have expressed concerns that it represents "cruel and unusual" methods.
 
Darat said:


Thanz I for one haven't got a clue any longer...

As I understand it this thread is now under investigation by Amnesty International since it was revealed it has been used during the interrogation of prisoners in Guantanamo Bay; they have expressed concerns that it represents "cruel and unusual" methods.

My AI group director just instructed me to begin writing letters. For some reason, though, she identified it as a francophone government. C'est la vie.
 
Thanz said:
It is what I surmise based on their postings. I could not tell you their backgrounds.

Your opinion, then. Not exactly unbiased, eh?

Thanz said:
I will say again, however, that one doesn't necessarily need a background in statistics to talk about a logical counting method for JE transcripts.

No. But it helps.
 
Thanz said:
Claus
The validity of statistics is not decided by popular vote.

That may be so. However, it would be nice if the discussion could focus on statistics, and now how people personally imagine how they are.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thanz
I thought that you had lost interest in this thread. I guess that you cannot resist responding to any post by Clancie. :rolleyes:

Yes Claus, I wish you would get over your obsession with Clancie. You're going to frighten her away :(
 
Interesting Ian said:
Yes Claus, I wish you would get over your obsession with Clancie. You're going to frighten her away :(

Clancie is so obsessed with me, that she has to remind everyone with every post she makes how much she "ignores" me. As we know, she does not.

How's that for "obsession"?
 
CFLarsen said:


Clancie is so obsessed with me, that she has to remind everyone with every post she makes how much she "ignores" me. As we know, she does not.

How's that for "obsession"?

Being such a Danish Pastry, you bring it on yourself.:D
 
Upchurch said:
[modu]This post has been reported for language.

While the ' does not make it one contiguous word, it's pushing the limit. I'm not going to take any action, but I recommend not pushing this any further.[/modu]

heh, I think next time I insult someone using prohibited words, I'll just stick in some 's in there and it will be OK.

:rolleyes:
 
Thanz said:

What irked me about Mr. Hoyt was his use of a trumped up analysis to try and say something meaningful. This kind of garbage only makes skeptics look bad, IMO.


It shows that while it is easy to lie with statistics, it is even easier to lie without. :)
 
Posted by Thanz

I will say again, however, that one doesn't necessarily need a background in statistics to talk about a logical counting method for JE transcripts.
True. Why would they?

Beyond that, Thanz, I find it interesting that Bill's apparently being given credit for some kind of "superior" knowledge of statistics. What has he demonstrated in this thread that would warrant anyone deferring to him about anything? :confused:

If anyone knows of examples of where Bill has displayed this great intellect and mastery of statistics as related to the 'J' count questions, please, please re-post it so we can -all- marvel at his great intellect and wisdom!

But no one will, :( because it just isn't here.

Thanz, on the other hand, has done everything Bill has asked of him in this lengthy argument....done the 'J' count, used Poisson, explained and compared both their methods, given clear examples and analogies to illustrate -his- points....the flaws and questions related to Bill's method...and the issues involved with each. And he hasn't done this as a believer in JE (since he isn't), but only to keep the arguments accurate, fair and honest.

I hope Thanz won't mind me saying that he has also made all his points (repeatedly) with incredible patience and civility, as well as finding new ways to make them clearer, in the hope of elevating the level of discussion (which, imo, his posts have consistently done).

Where has Bill shown an equal grasp of the issues? Where has Biill demonstrated a similar kind of clarity in explaining his own counting preference and critiquing others'?

Where has Bill (unlike Thanz) actually addressed the questions his counting method raised?

Bill hasn't done any of that. And not only does he try to impede discussion at every turn, his every post drips with unprovoked rudeness, slurs, and mockery, instead of offering genuine responses to the questions that have been raised.

I don't see why anyone should feel inferior to Bill or his alleged "grasp of statistics" :rolleyes: at all.
 
Clancie said:

True. Why would they?

Beyond that, Thanz, I find it interesting that Bill's apparently being given credit for some kind of "superior" knowledge of statistics in his position when he shows no indication of superior math or reasoning skills at all in this thread.

If anyone knows of examples of where he has displayed this great intellect and mastery of statistics re the 'J' count questions, please, please re-post it so we can -all- marvel at his wisdome!

But no one will, :( because it just isn't here.

Thanz has done everything Bill has asked of him in this lengthy argument....done the 'J' count, used Poisson, explained and compared both their methods, given clear examples and analogies to illustrate -his- points....the flaws and questions related to Bill's method...and the issues involved with each.

Thanz has made all his points (repeatedly) with incredible patience and civility, as well as finding new ways to make them clearer, in the hope of elevating the level of discussion.

Where has Bill shown an equal grasp of the issues? Where has Biill demonstrated a similar kind of clarity in explaining his own counting preference and critiquing others'?

Where has Bill (unlike Thanz) actually addressed the questions his counting method raised?

Bill hasn't done any of that. And not only does he try to impede discussion at every turn, his every post drips with unprovoked rudeness, slurs, and mockery, instead of offering the content, the response to questions raised, that Thanz, T'ai Chi and others are hoping for.

I don't see why anyone should feel inferior to Bill or his alleged "grasp of statistics" :rolleyes: at all.

Do you think you could contribute to this thread with anything else but character assassinations?
 
Originally posted by CFLarsen
Similarly, of the people listed, who have backgrounds in statistics?


It seems I have a BS Mathematics, MS Statistics, tutoring experience, teaching experience, some consulting, and have worked and currently am working analyzing data.

But it shouldn't matter. Sound statistical arguments (like Clancie, Thanz's, my own, and others') are sound regardless.

Perhaps you and Bill could list your statistical experience too, since you seem interested in the statistical backgrounds of people in this thread?
 
CFLarsen said:

Do you think you could contribute to this thread with anything else but character assassinations?

Do you think you could contribute to this thread?
 
Here are the questions that Bill was asked. After this, I won't post them again, but perhaps Bill (or someone who is so convinced he has answered them) would address them. (I've numbered them to make it easy...so "Question #1" can go with "Answer #1"..."Question #2" then "Answer #2"....and so on. It seems so simple (no knowledge of statistics needed to organize Q/A this way! ), but...somehow I feel very safe in predicting that they will still...remain....unanswered. :(

re: "J" counting method....

1. Do you agree that when some says "Fruit, like an apple or a pear" they are talking about Fruit, and that apple or pear are simple examples of fruits?

2. If someone asks you for "a piece of fruit, like an apple or a pear" are they asking you for one item or three items?

3. Likewise, when JE says "A J connection, like John or Joe" is he looking for one J connection, or is he looking for three J connections?

4. You say that you can count bird parts as long as you don't claim to be counting whole birds. But that is exactly what you are doing. You are counting parts of a guess - "like john or joe" as whole guesses. (Do you agree) that is the point that you don't address....

5. I would like you to explain (if you are able) either why you believe the bird analogy above is inappropriate, or, if appropriate, why we would count parts as whole birds.

And from T'ai Chi...

6. Are the letter counts independent or dependent in the following example?:

'I'm seeing a father figure, a J name, Joe, Joseph, Jim, Jerry'
Q/A. So straightforward.
 
T'ai Chi said:
Perhaps you and Bill could list your statistical experience too, since you seem interested in the statistical backgrounds of people in this thread?

I've already said that. It's not my problem if you can't pay attention.
 
CFLarsen said:

I've already said that. It's not my problem if you can't pay attention.

Perhaps you could address it again for us all:

Perhaps you and Bill could list your statistical experience too, since you seem interested in the statistical backgrounds of people in this thread?
 
T'ai Chi said:


Perhaps you could address it again for us all:

Perhaps you and Bill could list your statistical experience too, since you seem interested in the statistical backgrounds of people in this thread?

I have no formal education in statistics.

What schools did you go to? How can we check your academic credentials? You claim to have them, I would like to check them.

Do you mind?
 
CFLarsen said:

I have no formal education in statistics.


Ok.

Do you have any informal education in statistics? Any work experience in statistics?


What schools did you go to? How can we check your academic credentials? You claim to have them, I would like to check them.

You can solely address my statistical or mathematical arguments, Claus.

What schools did everyone on this thread go to for that matter? Can you check all their academic credentials, and then get back to me? Can you and Bill list your schools, academic credentials, and employment history, all with contact phone numbers first? You know, to stay focused on the topic. :rolleyes:
 
Posted by Ed (quoting CFLarsen)

Clancie is so obsessed with me, that she has to remind everyone with every post she makes how much she "ignores" me. As we know, she does not.

How's that for "obsession"?
OMG, Ian....

You know all those people who put you on "Ignore" the other day? I didn't "get it" then, but now, thanks to Claus, we understand why!

They've got you on "Ignore" because they're all obsessed with you!!! rofl. :D
 

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