Cold Reading Demos at TAM2

Clancie said:
Its fine with me, too, with just one caveat....I'm trying to post -less- in Paranormal not more, so I hope my future contributions won't be missed too much (haha) if they dwindle out by necessity as more people jump in.
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Clancie,

I don't think you should allow Claus to drive you away from the paranormal forum. He'll only follow you around wherever you go anyway. Just ignore him. Hopefully he'll get sick of addressing you, and you not responding. We need people of your calibre and intelligence in the paranormal forum :)
 
Thank you Ian, for the kind words, though I hear some cyber-choking over that last sentence :) (I especially hope Buki is okay....).

It really does seem as if it would be more enjoyable over in P,CE & H for a while, just kind of getting lost in the crowd. Besides, I think I've pretty much clarified my feelings about mediumship--clarified them for myself and as a general topic--and that was my main purpose in debating it anyway.

But..."never say never", right?
:)
 
Bump for Jr.:

T'ai Chi said:
Again, Claus, Bill, anyone; please show why the letter/name counts are independent. ie. show that:

P(first name is a J-name)*P(second name is a J-name) =
P(first name is a J-name AND second name is a J-name).

(where P(blah) means the 'probability of event blah')

Or, equivalently show:

P(second name is a J-name|first name is a J-name) = P(second name is a J-name)

(where P(A|B) is read as 'the probability of event A given that event B has occured')

That's all those who claim the letter/name counts to be independent have to show. I'll wait...

:)

But see, I'm thinking that:

P(second name is a J-name|first name is a J-name) = 100%.

which does not equal P(second name is a J-name), because this event occurs only when the event 'first name is a J-name' occurs, and that event does not occur 100% of the time because there are names guessed that start with other letters. For P(second name is a J-name) to equal 100%, JE or a medium would have to always guess J-names, which clearly isn't reality.

Therefore the events are dependent, and we cannot take any analysis that treats them independent seriously.

However, Thanz counts are different, because he (my take on it, please correct if I am wrong) considers the letter/name counts to be independent BETWEEN readings reading for individuals, not within readings for individuals, whereby 'individuals' I mean the subjects in things like 'I see a grandpa', 'I am sensing a male figure', 'I am seeing a old female'; the individuals are the grandpa, the male figure, and the old female. That is, Thanz's probabilities are:

P(first name in second reading is a J-name|first name in first reading is a J-name) = P(first name in second reading is a J-name), an equality which is more likely to be satisfied and thus have the letter/name counts be independent.
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