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carlson test and debunking randi

That's been tried before. Results were what you'd expect from chance.

Yep, I know. What I don't understand is whether or not astrologers agree that this is a fair test. Clearly some have, but some argue it's not and I couldn't tell you why.
 
What I'm saying is that in an environment where everyone is casually exposed to the same basic astrological projections, both the subjects and the astrologers would tend to assign the same general traits to a given birth date. I find it astounding that no astrologer has been able to use this to show that astrology "gets it right".

The MDC rules do not allow subjective tests so the subjects will not be allowed to match themselves to the readings. How I believe this has been handled is that the subjects are allowed to fill out a questionnaire and the astrologer then matches the birth dates to the responses. This allows the JREF staff to filter out questions that would correlate with well known astrological projections.

Actually I see what you're saying about just giving someone a "classic Gemini" reading. Oddly, I'm not aware of anyone having taken advantage of this. However as Hokule points out I've actually already covered this problem in my broad description and we can simply use all Geminis.

The test itself is not subjective. The participants match themselves to a reading; the number of hits is counted; the number of hits is a number between zero and ten, hits above seven counts as a success. You're actually testing a number between one and ten. The rules do not preclude participants from making subjective judgments in arriving at the score. A psychic might be only 70% sure about his guess of wavy line and might be allowed to arbitrarily skip that card. The only restriction would be practical ones to keep the test from going all night in an attempt to get enough solid guess. Likewise the astrologer can arbitrarily exclude a subject whose chart might be very volatile, so long as he can produce ten usable charts in a reasonable time.

I don't see anything wrong with a questionnaire in theory, but in practice it might be a very long questionnaire. It all really comes down to what the astrologer thinks will work. As I don't understand astrology, I'd like the astrologer to comment on this.
 
2 got 3 out of 5 right which is good if you bear in mind only about 5% of astrologers really know their business

As many as 5% get it right? Why that's fantastic!

Clearly, it is a "science" you can trust. Just think if only 5% of pilots had it right, or surgeons, or pharmacists, or ... I guess what I'm saying is that it is a pretty useless activity if only 5% of the practitioners/believers know what they're doing.
 
here is an example.
this is what james says about gemini rising, my rising sign, and what tradition says, though i can see he adds his experience as i had similar experiences.
This is not as vague as « you are normally social, confident, but inside more insecure and sometimes need to be alone».

[snip]

How come about 80-90% fits me, and I'm aquarius? Just curious and if any astrologers could answer I'd be happy to de-bunk it. ;)
 
Which system are you using? Aztec? Chinese? Indian? Hawaiian? European? Which ephemeris? What type of calendar, arithmetic or astronomical? Are you using sidereal or tropical coordinates?

Reminds me of a conversation I had in a car with a colleague.

We were listening to BBC Radio4's "Beyond Belief" (Great way of getting a rant started) and some person claimed that "athletes were more likely to be born under the sign of mars".

"Well I'm glad he was using good old western astrology, and none of that oriental claptrap", was my colleague's response.
 
How come about 80-90% fits me, and I'm aquarius? Just curious and if any astrologers could answer I'd be happy to de-bunk it. ;)

well aquarians are social but they need a lot of space. they dont like to follow the rules of the tribe
 
Actually I see what you're saying about just giving someone a "classic Gemini" reading. Oddly, I'm not aware of anyone having taken advantage of this. However as Hokule points out I've actually already covered this problem in my broad description and we can simply use all Geminis.

The test itself is not subjective. The participants match themselves to a reading; the number of hits is counted; the number of hits is a number between zero and ten, hits above seven counts as a success. You're actually testing a number between one and ten. The rules do not preclude participants from making subjective judgments in arriving at the score. A psychic might be only 70% sure about his guess of wavy line and might be allowed to arbitrarily skip that card. The only restriction would be practical ones to keep the test from going all night in an attempt to get enough solid guess. Likewise the astrologer can arbitrarily exclude a subject whose chart might be very volatile, so long as he can produce ten usable charts in a reasonable time.

I don't see anything wrong with a questionnaire in theory, but in practice it might be a very long questionnaire. It all really comes down to what the astrologer thinks will work. As I don't understand astrology, I'd like the astrologer to comment on this.

that was the double blind carlson test which was meant for psychologists not astrologers. No wonder they failed.:p
 
Hello.

Critics like this one will read into my challenge whatever they like - anything other than take it. This one is trying to imply it is a test of Astrology, yet I clearly state it is a test of a critics knowledge of Astrology and the quality of that knowledge. They like to criticise, but at the end of the day they have no working knowledge of the subject so their protestations are based on hearsay and assumption, the very thing my challenge is designed to expose.

Regards


James Young.
First Stop Astrology.
 
http://www.firststop-astrology.com/Explorer/Ascending_signs.htm

if you want to really test astrology read this lionk with the ascendant signs description. if you dont know your ascendant give me birth date,time and place of birth or go to www.astro.com and get yours free.
note that your sun sign, the way you see yourself and what you value may conflict with what your persona or ascendant says.
ill post sun signs description in the next post;)
 
that was the double blind carlson test which was meant for psychologists not astrologers. No wonder they failed.:p

Which test? The questionnaire test could be done by a psychologist, but the test I proposed requires an astrologer to draw up a star chart.

You haven't answered my question, which is to explain to me why a person cannot pick his own profile out of a pile of profiles. All that stuff about ascendants and houses sounds pretty cool, but I would like to know what use it has. If you could, say, give me some insight into another person's personality, that would be nice. But I would expect that I could pick my personality profile out of a pile of profiles, or at least narrow it down to a handful of choices.
 
Seems he doesn't much care for the tougher questions. Maybe his chart told him he was outmatched.
 
well aquarians are social but they need a lot of space. they dont like to follow the rules of the tribe

Uh, so I'm both social AND reclusive? Actually, let's take an entire paragraph from your post:

You have the gift of humour. Laughter comes naturally and you can see the funny side of any situation, especially if it involves someone else getting into trouble. Never stuck for a witty comment, you can liven up the most austere situation with some clever quip. It isn't that you have to think about these things, they just come naturally, off the top of your head, so to speak. Sometimes you surprise even yourself by what comes out of your mouth so spontaneously. You are good fun to be around.

Yes, I do have the gift of humour and I love a laugh - not on the expense of others though (two out of three just from the first sentence - not bad). I do have gut feeling for witty comments which do live things up and those things come natural. So you see, a tremendous lot of this is me - scary isn't it?

However, this was for gemini and I'm an aquarius - or by judging from the chart provided by CFlarsen, capricorn.

I'm so very confused now...
 
i have no time now foir so many questions.
the carlson test was a double blind test.
If you are talking about the test that Young was proposing, it is in no sense a double-blind test.

i why dont you watch the videos?:mad:
Most of your links no longer work. In fact, it looks like the James Young video has been taken down from everywhere it was posted. I wonder why...
 
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Hello.

Critics like this one will read into my challenge whatever they like - anything other than take it. This one is trying to imply it is a test of Astrology, yet I clearly state it is a test of a critics knowledge of Astrology and the quality of that knowledge. They like to criticise, but at the end of the day they have no working knowledge of the subject so their protestations are based on hearsay and assumption, the very thing my challenge is designed to expose.

Regards


James Young.
First Stop Astrology.


Why didn't you answer my question regarding which system you use?
 
i have no time now foir so many questions.
the carlson test was a double blind test.
why dont you watch the videos?:mad:

And why won't you understand that Randi's test was valid?

It doesn't matter HOW X works UNTIL X is shown to work.
Replace X with voodoo, astrology, phrenology, or calisthenics. In order for something to be shown to work you have to eliminate subjectivity, chance and fraud.

For example, every dowser believes s/he can find water. Every dowser has a different widget for doing so and Every dowser has a dozen theories as to why and how they supposedly do their water witching. But ultimately it doesn't amount to anything if dowsing doesn't WORK. If Bob knows ten times more about dowsing than Fred it amounts to worthless trivia. Even if Bob has a fancier stick, has a more complicated theory and a bigger water bucket, it's still of no value until Bob proves he can find water.

So we get it. You know astrology. Wonderful! Prove that it works in a scientific way and everyone here will not only have to eat crow, we'll have to sit and listen to you expound endlessly on the inner workings of the astrological machine.
 

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