Cannabis commercialization question

[WildCat]

Seriously? That passed me by.

It's been like that for 20 years or so, but IIRC it's nowhere near 100% certain, maybe 75% or 80% unless things improved in the last 15 years or so.

 

[jakesteele]

I don't understand this one bit.

First of all, you admit that the production cost would go down. And then you follow by saying, to address this ....

What needs to be addressed? Production cost going down is a good thing.

And what do you mean that you would keep the price the same? Do you mean if you were the dictator of the U.S. and had the ability to set prices?

Or do you mean if you were the leader of a cartel and had the ability to set prices?

You go on to say "To counteract someone selling it illegally for less money..."

???

Aren't we talking about legalizing it?

No, you simply have the federal govt. regulate it. In my state, Washington, the state govt. controls the sale of hard liquor. The price is the price uniformly throughout the state. The people that operate the stores have absolutely no say in the matter. They’re just worker bees.

I don’t know the exact ratio of production cost to sales price, but my guess is that it is a ‘lot’. For example, I am 59 yrs. old and when I was a kid cigs went for .50 a pack. I remember reading in Time Magizine that it cost the tobacco companies approx. 10 cents per pack to manufacture. That’s a 500% mark up.

You don’t have to be a dictator, the politicians simply vote on it.


There are in existence what we used to call “Moonshine” laws. Moonshine is a type of very hard liquor which is usually made with corn mash in homemade ‘stills’ which is a device with coiled copper tubing that the vapors of the evaporating corn mash circulate through and drops of near pure alcohol condense and form. It is called Moonshine.

It is highly illegal to make and sell and the FTA is all over that ****. The people that made it were called Moonshiners. They used hopped up hotrods with extra storage tanks full of ‘Shine to transport it and would get chased by the Feds and try to out run them. There’s an old ‘50s song called ‘Thunder Road’ that all about this. Just create similar type laws for cannabis

 

[Uncayimmy]

Humans have been tweaking these plants for thousands of years, there's not much more to be gained unless you want to genetically engineer them to be resistant to pesticides or disease. Frankenjuana!

Why wouldn't somebody want to do that? There are other things they can do as well. There's a type of corn with a 169x increase in beta carotene, 6x the vitamin C and 2x folate. You think they wouldn't be looking to tweak THC or

I don't see much need to "increase efficiency" of a product which would require only 1,500 acres or so to satisfy the entire US demand.

It is the nature of business to maximize efficiency. In the case of pot, which is easy to grow yourself, there will be a big push to make it as efficient as possible. As for your 1,500 acres number, I have no idea if that's accurate or not.

How have these minds improved, say, oregano in the last 100 years?

I'm pretty sure oregano has reaped the general benefits of industrialization in ways that pot has not. Just look at the history of packaging over the last 100 years.

 

[WildCat]

Why wouldn't somebody want to do that? There are other things they can do as well. There's a type of corn with a 169x increase in beta carotene, 6x the vitamin C and 2x folate. You think they wouldn't be looking to tweak THC or

They've been doing that, for thousands of years. I doubt there's much more upside to that.

It is the nature of business to maximize efficiency. In the case of pot, which is easy to grow yourself, there will be a big push to make it as efficient as possible. As for your 1,500 acres number, I have no idea if that's accurate or not.

If you space the plants 2' apart you can grow 12,100 plants per acre. If each plant averages 8 oz (pretty conservative estimate IMHO) you get 96,800 oz per acre, 1500 times that is 145,200,000 oz of marijuana, enough to give nearly 1/2 oz per year to every man, woman, and child in America.

That's a niche crop by any standard.

I'm pretty sure oregano has reaped the general benefits of industrialization in ways that pot has not. Just look at the history of packaging over the last 100 years.

So packaging is the improvement?

 

[Thomas]

The only reason one is indoor and one is outdoor is the height of the plant. Indica is short plants, which are what you want to grow indoors. Sativa grows tall, up to 20', so unless you have 25' ceilings this won't be what you want to grow indoors. Indica/sativa mixes can be either depending on how tall they get.

*It has nothing to do with the lighting.

For starters, you started off comparing skumk to "field weed", and attributed the difference not to genetics but to indoor/outdoor. So forgive me if I'm not sure you know wat you're talking about.

Show me where I said that genetics play no part, please. And then stop your endless stream of strawmen. Enviroment does play a part, the quality of the lamps, the humidity setup, watering setup, PH value of the soil, chemicals setup etc etc.

Outdoors is not superior, why else would outdoors skunk be half price and effect? You're not paying attention in class. How many cannabis supermakets do you have down the road? Let me guess: Zero.

 

[Thomas]

When marijuana is legal it will be like growing cucumbers, green beans, or tomatoes. And just like tomatoes when they're ripe and ready to pick, everyone who grows it will be giving some away to their friends and neighbors.

Do you often get a lot of tomatoes from your friends in hippie-fantasy land?

 

[Uncayimmy]

They've been doing that, for thousands of years. I doubt there's much more upside to that.

So, pot plants are perfect as they are, and the legalization would not result in any modifications whatsoever?

If you space the plants 2' apart you can grow 12,100 plants per acre. If each plant averages 8 oz (pretty conservative estimate IMHO) you get 96,800 oz per acre, 1500 times that is 145,200,000 oz of marijuana, enough to give nearly 1/2 oz per year to every man, woman, and child in America.

That's a niche crop by any standard.

How long does it take to harvest a single plant by hand? Two minutes? That's 400 man hours of labor per acre, right. At $10/hour, that's $4,000 in labor costs just for harvesting, which is about 4 cents per ounce. That's $6M in direct labor costs just for harvesting. Seems like it's worth automating the process.

Rather than go through all of the steps, how much are the labor costs for for getting that 145,200,000 ounces? A dollar per ounce? $145M is nothing to sneeze it. There are what, 28 grams to an ounce? So, production costs would be about 4 cents per gram.

The current market rate is 1000 to 2000 cents per gram, right? Yeh, I'm sure the price isn't going to come down one bit.

So packaging is the improvement?

In the context of judging what will happen to the price of pot with legalization, it's relevant. Some guy sitting at a table put pot in a baggie can't compete with dropping a load at a packaging plant.

 

[Aepervius]

Do you often get a lot of tomatoes from your friends in hippie-fantasy land?

You must be living in city.

In smaller inhabited units (village, town etc...) people exchange all sort of legumes, and even tobacco. I also heard rumor of shroom exchange, but did not dig really in because i am not interested.

So yeah, grass exchange don't sound far fetched.

 

[Aepervius]

Oh and please, use the metric system.... This forum is god damn international and it is much easier (and much more eco friendly ...) for ONE person to take the step and computational power to transform middle age unit into modern one, than 10000 viewer to be forced to do that transformation.

 

[Thomas]

You must be living in city.

In smaller inhabited units (village, town etc...) people exchange all sort of legumes, and even tobacco. I also heard rumor of shroom exchange, but did not dig really in because i am not interested.

So yeah, grass exchange don't sound far fetched.

I have both lived in the big city like I do now, and countryside - my gf lives countryside..
So, there may be some hemp exchange in the future if weed is legalized, no doubt, countryside folks are more or less used to settling with second rate products anyway

But if you want the creme de la creme tho, then you get marijuana grown in a controlled enviroment.. Constant monitoring of humidity, water levels and PH values, dynamic but static light cycles, special chemicals and automated temperature adjusters etc. I doubt there will be a lot of countryside folks (or city folks) who wants to go to those extremes at home, instead of just buying it off a corporation that already has - down the local supermarket. Sure there will be a lot of exchange of hemp/outdoors weed if legalized, but it doesn't estimate to that of controlled enviroment marijuana.

It is indeed apples and oranges, but not as much as tomatoes and marijuana.

 

[LTC8K6]

Where are you going to be allowed to smoke, though? You already can't smoke tobacco anywhere. I can't imagine people are going to be any happier with mj smoke. You can't even smoke tobacco where you live in many cases. People are nuts about the residue and residual smell and effects, etc. People are nuts over second hand tobacco smoke, too. To the point of lawsuits and regulations.

Now you will have second hand smoke that's not only bad for your lungs, but will make you high, and cause you to fail a drug test, or cause you to get a DUI, etc. Not to mention the stench mj smoke leaves behind on everything.

We already have disputes with people in adjoining apartments and neighboring houses over tobacco smoke.

I'm going to guess and say that somehow mj smoke will be "okay", even though tobacco smoke is persecuted mercilessly.

There would also be liability issues similar to what we now have with alcohol and those who serve it. Bars, and parties, etc. If you serve a person, and they drive off and crash, you are in trouble. I expect the same sorts of cases over mj.

Where I live, the state is the big seller of hard liquor. I wonder if the state would also be selling the mj?

 

[DreadNiK]

The price will be higher for indoor cultivated marijuana since it demands artificial lights, humidity control etc etc.

And this will lead to a black market how exactly?

Or if that is not what you are arguing, what are you saying is the implication of this fact?

 

[GeeMack]

And this will lead to a black market how exactly?

Or if that is not what you are arguing, what are you saying is the implication of this fact?

It seems to me that Thomas is just arguing that he has better dope than everyone else.

 

[BenBurch]

Do you often get a lot of tomatoes from your friends in hippie-fantasy land?

Actually, I used to... Both my Mom and the lady down the street would plant far too many tomatoes. We got more from them than we could eat and then would give them away at work.

 

[GeeMack]

It is estimated that in the United States over 100 million people have tried marijuana and 15 million people smoke it regularly.

Office of National Drug Control Policy: Marijuana is the most commonly used illicit drug. According to the 2008 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), an estimated 102 million Americans aged 12 or older have tried marijuana at least once in their lifetimes, representing 41% of the U.S. population in that age group. The number of past year marijuana users in 2008 was approximately 25.8 million (10.3% of the population aged 12 or older) and the number of past month marijuana users was 15.2 million (6.1%).

Combine that with the fact that, regardless of some naive protestations to the contrary, excellent quality marijuana can be grown in backyards in almost every state here. The culture and the economics involved are bound to be quite different than in, say, some puny little country with a population of 5 or 6 million people. The 15 million people who smoke marijuana here represent a wide cross section, very few of them being the small-minded stoners who think there's only one way to grow pot and only one kind of pot worthy of being called excellent.

In the same way that we have a variety of qualities and strengths of alcoholic beverages, from cheap beer to expensive champagne, from soda-pop-like wine coolers to 95% alcohol Everclear, we have a wide variety of marijuana available. People choose their marijuana according to their budget, their personal tastes, availability, flavor, strength, any number of subjective considerations. Again, not everyone is a dyed-in-the-wool dopehead who believes that getting crapfaced stoned is the whole point of smoking marijuana. This will not change when prohibition ends. If anything it will create a culture demanding a greater variety of choices, not fewer.

Do you often get a lot of tomatoes from your friends in hippie-fantasy land?

Why yes, when the crops get harvested there's plenty to go around cheap to free. Tomatoes for everyone where I live. Marijuana, too, if you're in the right circles. I get free tomatoes during a couple months every year, and turn down many offers for more. I turn down offers for free marijuana fairly often, too, excellent quality, grown outdoors within 50 miles of where I live. When prohibition ends, marijuana will be just as inexpensive and just as readily available as any other produce grown in backyard gardens.

And the point still is, when prohibition ends, there will be no practical way a black market in marijuana can exist. Whatever the demand for quality, quantity, or variety, it will likely be effectively met by commercial operations. If for any reason the commercial producers can't offer it at an attractive price, people will grow their own. And just like beer and wine, some people will anyway.

 

[LTC8K6]

I'll bet that taxes on it will be very high, thus supporting a smaller black market. Vice taxes are becoming more and more popular, and tobacco is already taxed out the wazoo.

The tobacco black market is alive and well and lucrative.

Will the American Indian reservations have the same advantages with mj that they have with tobacco?

 

[Howie Felterbush]

And this will lead to a black market how exactly?

Or if that is not what you are arguing, what are you saying is the implication of this fact?

I think the black market will just go gray.

If the feds require pot growers to jump through a bunch of hoops regarding taxes, etc, the people that are already growing illegally will continue to grow illegally and sell to their current crop (snicker) of customers. Why buy a tax stamp or something like it to continue doing what you've been doing all along?

 

[WildCat]

Show me where I said that genetics play no part, please.

Why on earth are you comparing skunk with "field weed" then?

And then stop your endless stream of strawmen. Enviroment does play a part, the quality of the lamps, the humidity setup, watering setup, PH value of the soil, chemicals setup etc etc.

90+% of it is still genetics.

Outdoors is not superior, why else would outdoors skunk be half price and effect?

Already answered. Because indoor plants can be tended to, while outdoor plants cannot be tended to without increasing your risk of getting caught. How well would your indoor marijuana do if you just threw some seeds in a pot, locked them in your grow room, and didn't check them until 3 or 4 months later?

You're not paying attention in class.

Says the guys who didn't see the answer to the above question, and demanded it be answered again.

How many cannabis supermakets do you have down the road? Let me guess: Zero.

And let me guess, each one says their bud is the bestest and no way could anyone else grow stuff like theirs?

I guess the marketing does work on those susceptible to it!

Hey, I have lots of supermarkets in my neighborhood, does this make me an expert on raising beef and dairy cattle? Growing pineapples and mangos? How does that work?

 

[WildCat]

Do you often get a lot of tomatoes from your friends in hippie-fantasy land?

You must be living in city.

I live in the city and I give away lots of tomatoes and peppers from my garden, as well as grape jelly from my vines. Pretty much everyone on my block has a garden, it's one of those rare ones where the back yards all face south and get sun all day long.

It's hippie fantasy land!

 

[WildCat]

So, pot plants are perfect as they are, and the legalization would not result in any modifications whatsoever?

Oh, I'm sure there'd be more cultivars developed, but that's already the case. But nothing radically different. Just look at all the types of Anaheim peppers, but the differences between them aren't all that great.

With marijuana, there's still be 3 main types - indica, sativa, and hybrids of those.

How long does it take to harvest a single plant by hand? Two minutes? That's 400 man hours of labor per acre, right. At $10/hour, that's $4,000 in labor costs just for harvesting, which is about 4 cents per ounce. That's $6M in direct labor costs just for harvesting. Seems like it's worth automating the process.

Not all ag processes can be automated, and buds don't fall off the plant when ripe if shaken. And I don't see anyone investing the money to automate harvesting a crop that needs just 1,500 acres to meet the demand of the entire country. That's 3 average-sized farms.

Rather than go through all of the steps, how much are the labor costs for for getting that 145,200,000 ounces? A dollar per ounce? $145M is nothing to sneeze it. There are what, 28 grams to an ounce? So, production costs would be about 4 cents per gram.

The current market rate is 1000 to 2000 cents per gram, right? Yeh, I'm sure the price isn't going to come down one bit.

The price would definitely come down faster than freefall speed.

In the context of judging what will happen to the price of pot with legalization, it's relevant. Some guy sitting at a table put pot in a baggie can't compete with dropping a load at a packaging plant.

I think that whatever commercial growers there are will be quite small, there just isn't enough market to attract large corporations.