Brexit: the referendum

[Nessie]

Indeed, and where it has gone to a vote, the UK has voted with the majority in 87% of the time in the last six years.

So we have far more in common with the rest of the EU than we do not. That is contrary to the leave side's claims.

 

[GlennB]

The UK has the same ability to make things better as everyone else. Disagree with Eastern European nations? Get together with likeminded nations and outvote them.

Not sure it's quite that simple. Germany wields disproportionate power within the EZ and, with the EZ comprising a pretty hefty part of the EU, wields bonus political power too.

 

[Lothian]

Hlafordlaes, do you have any idea how the EU actually works ? How legislation is framed, and then enacted ?

The UK has no practical ability to "make things better". We are outvoted by the Eastern European block, and the Mediteranian block. This idea of "sticking with the EU and fighting to make it better" is - sadly - a chiminier.

Which votes in particu;ar have the Eastern block voted against us? I am intetested whether this is a throretical rather than an actual complaint.

I have not noticed any eastern cabal when | have been at meetimgs, I am fairly sure they have been on the same side of the vote as us.

Coild ypu perhaps list the countries ypu think are working together to vote down any measure which makes the EU better.

 

[uke2se]

Not sure it's quite that simple. Germany wields disproportionate power within the EZ and, with the EZ comprising a pretty hefty part of the EU, wields bonus political power too.

Germany is not part of the "Eastern European voting block" being whined about. Surely the UK could find common ground with them on many, if not most, issues?

 

[The Don]

Germany is not part of the "Eastern European voting block" being whined about. Surely the UK could find common ground with them on many, if not most, issues?

[MajorBuftonTufton]Work with the Hun ? Never ![/MajorBuftonTufton]

 

[GlennB]

Germany is not part of the "Eastern European voting block" being whined about. Surely the UK could find common ground with them on many, if not most, issues?

Eastern European EU members are just part of the picture and were given as an example. A particular political issue might involve them heavily or it might not - it might be France, Spain, Italy ....

 

[Hlafordlaes]

Hlafordlaes, do you have any idea how the EU actually works ? How legislation is framed, and then enacted ?

The UK has no practical ability to "make things better". We are outvoted by the Eastern European block, and the Mediteranian block. This idea of "sticking with the EU and fighting to make it better" is - sadly - a chiminier.

This may come to you as a shocker, but many ideas are shared and common in spite of differences in culture and history. Once you conclude that you cannot ever reach a reasonable agreement with your neighbor because of those differences that remain, given the political geography of Europe, what you are really doing is calling for a return to the early 20th century, or earlier, with all that implies.

 

[uke2se]

Eastern European EU members are just part of the picture and were given as an example. A particular political issue might involve them heavily or it might not - it might be France, Spain, Italy ....

And again, discussing, negotiating and cajoling, finding partners in other nations with common interests, is a good way to get your will through, no matter who's the opposition. As we've learned, the UK has gotten its will through the vast majority of the time.

 

[The Don]

And again, discussing, negotiating and cajoling, finding partners in other nations with common interests, is a good way to get your will through, no matter who's the opposition. As we've learned, the UK has gotten its will through the vast majority of the time.

I guess part of the problem is that any movement from the UK's opening negotiating position is portrayed by large parts of the Euroskeptic press, and by certain politicians as failure or surrendering. Getting 90% of what we want is apparently a loss because we had to yield ground on the other 10%.

 

[Corsair 115]

Or not, given the degree of independence each country has and in particular the UK's vetoes and opt-outs.

'Degree of independence' indicates that there isn't full national sovereignty, so some of it has already been ceded. (Exactly how many 'vetoes' and 'opt-outs' have actually been exercised? And in what categories and legislation? How does this compare to other nations within the EU?)

Look, I have nor offer an opinion on what the U.K. should do in regards to either staying or leaving the EU. That is for the citizens of the U.K. to decide. But for those of us on the outside, as well as those a part of it, honestly and impartially examining the matter would seem a fitting thing to do on this type of forum.

Why is that the proper skeptical approach? It seems a lot like false equivalence to me.

It is proper skepticism to assume or assert that one side is always lying and the other side is always telling the truth? Shouldn't such judgements be reserved until a full and proper appraisal of all information is done? One can certainly have a leaning towards or against a side, but final judgement should be based on evidence and reason, should it not?

 

[The Don]

'Degree of independence' indicates that there isn't full national sovereignty, so some of it has already been ceded. (Exactly how many 'vetoes' and 'opt-outs' have actually been exercised? And in what categories and legislation? How does this compare to other nations within the EU?)

Look, I have nor offer an opinion on what the U.K. should do in regards to either staying or leaving the EU. That is for the citizens of the U.K. to decide. But for those of us on the outside, as well as those a part of it, honestly and impartially examining the matter would seem a fitting thing to do on this type of forum.

It's true of all nations which have signed up to any international treaty.

As pointed out earlier, the UK has had its way in the vast majority of cases, 17000+ to 56.

 

[jimbob]

It is proper skepticism to assume or assert that one side is always lying and the other side is always telling the truth? Shouldn't such judgements be reserved until a full and proper appraisal of all information is done? One can certainly have a leaning towards or against a side, but final judgement should be based on evidence and reason, should it not?

It's perfectly reasonable to point out that one side is being far more dishonest.

 

[Tanglewood]

If we leave the EU, can we leave our football hooligans in France?

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

EU politicians will have a hard time persuading the German car manufacturers or French farmers that they need to give up exporting their stuff to the UK.

The UK buys more German cars than any other EU country (except Germany). French farmers are not known for mildly accepting barriers to their trade - they'll soon be barricading the roads and setting fire to stuff when they're told they can no longer sell us their wine, apples, meat and other produce.

I don't mean this to be as rude as it probably sounds but your arguments seem to be a rather naive parroting of Brexiter talking points. Have you thought through how this will work in practice?

First if we leave we will need to negotiate a FTA with the entire EU which all members will need to agree to the terms of. Or otherwise we don't have it and will revert to Non-EU terms. This doesn't mean we can't sell things. It means there will be tariffs.

So VWs, BMWs and Audis will become more expensive in the UK and on the other side Hondas and Nissans will get pricier on the continent. Now no doubt that will impact on sales of German cars in the UK but it's not going to destroy them because people still want BMWs and Audis and VWs and will be willing to pay more for them. On the continent meanwhile Hondas and Nissans are now closer in price to BMWs and Audis and those KIAs and Hyundais made in Eastern Europe look like bargains.

So it's a complex problem to work through but one thing to remember is that there's the same complex problem for 1001 things we import and export and can't just do a FTA with Germany to solve that it needs to be with the entire EU. So if the Romanians don't like the deal on Romanian toffees (or whatever) the whole thing is binned.

Now if it takes 3 or 4 years to negotiate this complex deal Nissan and Toyota aren't going to sit on their hands and do nothing. They'll be off quicker than you can say 'manufacturing has moved to Bratislava'

Do folks want the U.K. to remain a sovereign nation able to control its own currency, borders, trade, finances, rules and regulations, etc.? Or do they want to become a province/state within a larger 'United States of Europe', and cede that national sovereignty?

That is ultimately what is being decided.

That's a very particular interpretation of the question and not one I would agree with.

Hlafordlaes, do you have any idea how the EU actually works ? How legislation is framed, and then enacted ?

The UK has no practical ability to "make things better". We are outvoted by the Eastern European block, and the Mediteranian block. This idea of "sticking with the EU and fighting to make it better" is - sadly - a chiminier.

This is very puzzling logic. The EU is made up of its constituent nations. If one nation cannot change it, then no nation can change it and therefore it cannot be changed. And yet that's obviously not true. Because it does change. And the UK has as much influence as pretty much any member in there.

This idea seems to be driven by the thinking that 'we' are different and that there is a homogeneous block of 'Europeans' on the other side who are trying to do us down and have everything their own way. It's simply not true.

It also seems to be driven by a rather childish reaction from the UK right that they can't get their own small-minded way on things all the time.

Hmmm... OK.. it is an unproven theory. And almost all of the 'think tank' predictions rest on it. Therefore, they are not actually independant. The ORGANSIATIONS may be independant, but because they rely on a common assumption, their forecasts are NOT independant.

They didn't just pluck it out of their backsides though. They think that for reasons. If you disagree with the analysis then fine, there can be reasoned debate on the assumptions and forecasts but you need to point out where you disagree with it and why rather than just dismissing it because you don't like what it says.

It is proper skepticism to assume or assert that one side is always lying and the other side is always telling the truth? Shouldn't such judgements be reserved until a full and proper appraisal of all information is done? One can certainly have a leaning towards or against a side, but final judgement should be based on evidence and reason, should it not?

Nobody has said that one side tells the truth. You won't find a more vocal critic of Cameron and Osborne than me. The Remain campaign talks a lot of rubbish at times but the Leave campaign has been downright dishonest and has played to people's prejudices and bigotry on immigration in particular. A nasty lot.

So it's twats v nasty twats for most of the campaign.

 

[GlennB]

If we leave the EU, can we leave our football hooligans in France?

Hi Tanglewood, and welcome

Well, it would be more difficult to export the hooligans into Europe, especially as the queue at immigration over there would take longer than they can manage without a pint (half litre?) of lager. So, actually, I think they'd spend more time in the UK.

 

[ceptimus]

I don't mean this to be as rude as it probably sounds but your arguments seem to be a rather naive parroting of Brexiter talking points. Have you thought through how this will work in practice?

First if we leave we will need to negotiate a FTA with the entire EU which all members will need to agree to the terms of. Or otherwise we don't have it and will revert to Non-EU terms. This doesn't mean we can't sell things. It means there will be tariffs.

So VWs, BMWs and Audis will become more expensive in the UK and on the other side Hondas and Nissans will get pricier on the continent. Now no doubt that will impact on sales of German cars in the UK but it's not going to destroy them because people still want BMWs and Audis and VWs and will be willing to pay more for them. On the continent meanwhile Hondas and Nissans are now closer in price to BMWs and Audis and those KIAs and Hyundais made in Eastern Europe look like bargains.

So it's a complex problem to work through but one thing to remember is that there's the same complex problem for 1001 things we import and export and can't just do a FTA with Germany to solve that it needs to be with the entire EU. So if the Romanians don't like the deal on Romanian toffees (or whatever) the whole thing is binned.

Now if it takes 3 or 4 years to negotiate this complex deal Nissan and Toyota aren't going to sit on their hands and do nothing. They'll be off quicker than you can say 'manufacturing has moved to Bratislava'

I don't mean this to be as rude as it probably sounds but your arguments seem to be a rather naive parroting of Remain talking points.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I don't mean this to be as rude as it probably sounds but your arguments seem to be a rather naive parroting of Remain talking points.

Could you point me to the Remain person who has made the points you have quoted then?

I notice once again you fail to engage with the points made - presumably because you don't have an argument.

 

[CapelDodger]

Hmmm... OK.. it is an unproven theory. And almost all of the 'think tank' predictions rest on it. Therefore, they are not actually independant. The ORGANSIATIONS may be independant, but because they rely on a common assumption, their forecasts are NOT independant.

I rely on the common assumption that the Sun will come up tomorrow, and I've not been let down yet.

If the vote is for Leave we'll very soon see how accurate these predictions are. Osborne's "emergency budget" prediction, for instance, places it just a few months away.

 

[Garrison]

I rely on the common assumption that the Sun will come up tomorrow, and I've not been let down yet.

If the vote is for Leave we'll very soon see how accurate these predictions are. Osborne's "emergency budget" prediction, for instance, places it just a few months away.

The thing is the economic troubles Remain is predicting have already started. Every time a poll comes out showing leave ahead the FTSE dips and there's run on the pound. In the event of a leave win in the referendum you can expect that to accelerate and create exactly the situation Osborne is warning about.

 

[Information Analyst]

Is that a real response? Or is it sarcasm?

Mostly serious. Brexiters' response to anyone who has criticised their claims as being inaccurate has simply been to steadfastly say that those making the criticisms are the one who are wrong. They never try to clarify or justify what they said in the first place, they just keep repeating it.