Brexit: the referendum

ceptimus said:
I think it's more likely that if there is a Brexit, other EU countries will be queueing up to hold referenda for Exits of their own.
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All any smart leader need to do on that score is delay. The negative impact of Brexit on the UK will become clear soon enough. I expect it to be an object lesson in the dangers of following fancy, not fact, something the Leavers seem to share with Trump.

The nasty secret, you see, is that everything the Leavers are complaining about are exactly those things that signal that Britain is, indeed, Great. All the advantages of membership are background noise, and so are easily lost in the din. They will be missed when gone.

***
As an aside, Brexit and the rise of people like Trump signal something needs to change wrt paying attention to middle class whites or native Brits. Aggregate economic statistics are hiding the hit these people are taking in certain geographic and demographic groupings, and feeding a discontent that the numbers would say should not be there, leading to major mayhem.
 
Hlafordlaes said:
All any smart leader need to do on that score is delay. The negative impact of Brexit on the UK will become clear soon enough. I expect it to be an object lesson in the dangers of following fancy, not fact, something the Leavers seem to share with Trump.
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Are there not some legitimate complaints about the state of the EU?
 
Argumemnon said:
Perhaps we can conclude that there's a lot of lying on both sides.
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That would seem the proper skeptical approach. But as this is a Politics section, skepticism will probably be in short supply.


Argumemnon said:
Personally I don't know what'd best, but it seems like the Brits are going to have to decide what they prefer: sovereignty or economic stability.
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Seems to me the question really boils down to this:

Do folks want the U.K. to remain a sovereign nation able to control its own currency, borders, trade, finances, rules and regulations, etc.? Or do they want to become a province/state within a larger 'United States of Europe', and cede that national sovereignty?

That is ultimately what is being decided.
 
Corsair 115 said:
Seems to me the question really boils down to this:

Do folks want the U.K. to remain a sovereign nation able to control its own currency, borders, trade, finances, rules and regulations, etc.? Or do they want to become a province/state within a larger 'United States of Europe', and cede that national sovereignty?

That is ultimately what is being decided.
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Or not, given the degree of independence each country has and in particular the UK's vetoes and opt-outs.
 
Corsair 115 said:
That would seem the proper skeptical approach. But as this is a Politics section, skepticism will probably be in short supply.
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Why is that the proper skeptical approach? It seems a lot like false equivalence to me.
 
Archie Gemmill Goal said:
The decline in GDP is not an unproven assumption. It's a forecast based on their analysis of future events. You can disagree with the analysis if you like and argue the facts that support it but you can't just dismiss it. The fact that so many agree on it does not point to it being wrong . Quite the opposite .
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Hmmm... OK.. it is an unproven theory. And almost all of the 'think tank' predictions rest on it. Therefore, they are not actually independant. The ORGANSIATIONS may be independant, but because they rely on a common assumption, their forecasts are NOT independant.
 
Roofgardener said:
Hmmm... OK.. it is an unproven theory. And almost all of the 'think tank' predictions rest on it. Therefore, they are not actually independant. The ORGANSIATIONS may be independant, but because they rely on a common assumption, their forecasts are NOT independant.
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Screw the experts, go with your gut?
 
quadraginta said:
Yea. I understand that.

There doesn't seem to be any way to determine what the procedure for actually resigning is going to be should the referendum result in a popular support of leaving, since it is non-binding. So I figure that is going to be pure conjecture. Interesting conjecture, perhaps, but it doesn't seem as if anyone actually knows.

Once notice is sent the subsequent steps are defined by treaty, at least as I understand.
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Although theoretically non-binding, an overt attempt by the government to ignore the result would probably result in mass civil disturbance.

The theoretical proceedure is that Ivan Rogers, the UK’s Permanent Representative to the Council of the European Union, would present a diplomatic note to Donald Tusk, the President of the aforementioned council, stating that the UK wishes to activate Article 50 of the Treaty of the European Union ("Lisbon").

At this point, all members of the Council are summoned with instructions to run around like headless chickens.

It is possible that nobody will notice the difference between this, and any OTHER meeting of the council.

A two-year period begins, in which the UK will have to negotiate a future relationship with the EU. The terms of this negotiation will have to be ratified by 72% of the Council of the European Union, plus a simple majority in the European Parliament.

Failure to ratify on the above terms will cause additional mass Gallus gallus domesticus decapitationus

Any questions ? :p
 
Argumemnon said:
How is that calculated?



Perhaps we can conclude that there's a lot of lying on both sides. Personally I don't know what'd best, but it seems like the Brits are going to have to decide what they prefer: sovereignty or economic stability.
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Generally, the Remain campaign have at worst been overstating their sums.

Leave, however, have been using a figure that is known to be wrong and repeatedly pointed out that it is wrong, and even then have been double counting it depending on their audience.

It's a bit like a Brit saying, "I think that there is a lot of lying from both Trump and Saunders"

That might be true, but one side is telling far larger whoppers than the other.

Osbourne's $4 grand a year per family was wrong - it should have been the equivalent cost spread evenly over the UK. That is a whole order of magnitude different to using numbers that are demonstrably true.

Stating that you pay $350 a week for membership of a club is wrong if you get a rebate that reduces this at source before it leaves your account and you have a veto on any decision to remove this rebate. It's even worse if the club then also gives back more money separately, so that you end up paying about $89 a week.
 
Argumemnon said:
Are there not some legitimate complaints about the state of the EU?
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Many. Another good question, though, is what to do about them, conquer obstacles or retreat. Brexit is not a choice between freedom or income, rather, between a willingness to do the hard work to make things better and more democratic, in company of friends and neighbors, an achievable and reasonable goal, or retreating to a nostalgic past whose foundations for greatness no longer pertain, plus a less wealthy future.

My complaint, to air it succinctly, is that fighting for "more democracy" in this case is code for a retreat to the tribe, just as is the case for the Tea Party and its dreams of some lost paradise. Democracy isn't really on anyone's mind, so She is just there for eye candy. Sad, and debasing. Piss me off, tear my heart out sad.
 
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Hlafordlaes, do you have any idea how the EU actually works ? How legislation is framed, and then enacted ?

The UK has no practical ability to "make things better". We are outvoted by the Eastern European block, and the Mediteranian block. This idea of "sticking with the EU and fighting to make it better" is - sadly - a chiminier.
 
Roofgardener said:
Hlafordlaes, do you have any idea how the EU actually works ? How legislation is framed, and then enacted ?

The UK has no practical ability to "make things better". We are outvoted by the Eastern European block, and the Mediteranian block. This idea of "sticking with the EU and fighting to make it better" is - sadly - a chiminier.
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I cannot find this word, what does it mean please ?
 
Roofgardener said:
Hlafordlaes, do you have any idea how the EU actually works ? How legislation is framed, and then enacted ?

The UK has no practical ability to "make things better". We are outvoted by the Eastern European block, and the Mediteranian block. This idea of "sticking with the EU and fighting to make it better" is - sadly - a chiminier.
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The UK has the same ability to make things better as everyone else. Disagree with Eastern European nations? Get together with likeminded nations and outvote them.
 
Roofgardener said:
Hlafordlaes, do you have any idea how the EU actually works ? How legislation is framed, and then enacted ?

The UK has no practical ability to "make things better". We are outvoted by the Eastern European block, and the Mediteranian block. This idea of "sticking with the EU and fighting to make it better" is - sadly - a chiminier.
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That sounds like the typical British way of doing things - the same applies to our abject failure to land the World Cup (and possibly even Eurovision if we're being silly). We expect other countries to do what we want, because we're Britain rather than working, persuading, cajoling,

The idea that the Eastern Europeans or the Mediterranean form some seamless, homogeneous, monolithic voting bloc is fantasy. If they do vote together on a particular matter it's because they've been working to develop consensus in exactly the way that Britain seems unwilling, or unable to to. There must be matters on which we have common ground with the other post-industrial nations but somehow we don't seem to be able to manage to exploit it. Perhaps our lukewarm approach together with our apparent 100% self-interest (not even bothering to pretend to work with and for other countries).

I remember some kind of animation posted to ISF a while ago entitled something like "Britain from an EU perspective" which IIRC had Britain behaving like a spoiled child.


edited to add....

tl;dr version - what uke2se said :D
 
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uke2se said:
The UK has the same ability to make things better as everyone else. Disagree with Eastern European nations? Get together with likeminded nations and outvote them.
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Indeed, and where it has gone to a vote, the UK has voted with the majority in 87% of the time in the last six years.
 
jimbob said:
Indeed, and where it has gone to a vote, the UK has voted with the majority in 87% of the time in the last six years.
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And according to the poster we've got our way 2,466 times in the last 17 years and been outvoted 56 times.
 
The Don said:
And according to the poster we've got our way 2,466 times in the last 17 years and been outvoted 56 times.
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Seems like this is another case of perception of reality not jiving with actual reality. Wonder who's to blame, if anyone.
 
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