Brexit: the referendum

[Information Analyst]

That's a little unfair, The Don. The Leave side believe there are drawbacks to EU membership as well as benefits.

Funny how they are eschewing explaining this in favour for the same old lies and scare-mongering, then. The £350 million" epitomises this. The maths even on the controbution/rebate/subsidies side is staggeringly simple, yet they just keep doggedly claiming the £350 million and suggesting they can instead spend it on whatever it thinks the audience wants to hear.

 

[Information Analyst]

I didn't hand wave it away.

I posted that, in total, we get about half of the money we contribute back.

Do you accept that?

I know the Remain side also like to claim other nebulous benefits of remaining a member of the EU, but we're just discussing the accountable flows of money here.

Do you accept that what we get back directly mostly pays for stuff we'd have to pay anyway, i.e. farming subsidies?

 

[Information Analyst]

Why are the Remain side so hung up about the whether the Gross or Net figure should be used? Do they really believe that the majority of the British public really care which of those two figures is used? Both of the sums are too large to be comprehensible to normal voters - and either number is just converted inside their heads to, "A vast amount of money."

Why are Brexiters so keen on sticking to the gross figure? Why do they keep implying the gross figure can be simultaneously spent on the NHS, education, etc.? Why do Brexiters not want to acknowlegde the financial benefits to being in the EU?

 

[ceptimus]

Do you accept that what we get back directly mostly pays for stuff we'd have to pay anyway, i.e. farming subsidies?

Yes.

Now answer my question. Do you agree that we get, in total, roughly half of our gross contribution back.

 

[Information Analyst]

Yes, I think there is an economic benefit. But it's also an economic benefit to the EU countries we trade with, and I believe we will keep all or most of those deals in place after a Brexit.

Or maybe they're only trading with us because we're an EU partner, and if we leave, they'll switch to another EU partner?

 

[Information Analyst]

Yes.

Now answer my question. Do you agree that we get, in total, roughly half of our gross contribution back.

I'm not going to answer a loaded question that pretends that the overall profit of being in the EU is not part of the equation.

 

[ceptimus]

Or maybe they're only trading with us because we're an EU partner, and if we leave, they'll switch to another EU partner?

EU politicians will have a hard time persuading the German car manufacturers or French farmers that they need to give up exporting their stuff to the UK.

The UK buys more German cars than any other EU country (except Germany). French farmers are not known for mildly accepting barriers to their trade - they'll soon be barricading the roads and setting fire to stuff when they're told they can no longer sell us their wine, apples, meat and other produce.

 

[ceptimus]

I'm not going to answer a loaded question that pretends that the overall profit of being in the EU is not part of the equation.

Well if you're not able to answer a straight question, that's telling.

You already gave the figures anyway. Everyone can see how much of our gross contribution comes back to us and how much goes to funding other EU countries. Some of our money pays for roads and bridges in the UK and lots of other good stuff - but about half of it goes to subsidise things abroad.

 

[Stuart]

roof Gardener

What are the views of young people of your acquaintance? All those I know want us to remain in the EU.

All the young people I know ( upto 25 yo) have said it's a no contest - stay in.


As an aside, one of my daughters is studying EU and International Law in Germany. A Norwegian on her course had previously thought that Farage was a comedy parody character. She apologised for her mistake and added "It was funny until I realised that he was genuine then worried when I realised that he is also friggin mentally disturbed".

 

[SusanB-M1]

A caller on Radio 4 a few minutes ago said that' we've been independent since 1066 and for hundreds of years...' It's enough to make one weep

Fortunately the (remainer) MP responding made a good point.

 

[Information Analyst]

Well if you're not able to answer a straight question, that's telling.

You already gave the figures anyway. Everyone can see how much of our gross contribution comes back to us and how much goes to funding other EU countries. Some of our money pays for roads and bridges in the UK and lots of other good stuff - but about half of it goes to subsidise things abroad.

The fact that you think that that is more important than profiting to a much larger degree by being in the EU is far more telling.

 

[Hlafordlaes]

EU politicians will have a hard time persuading the German car manufacturers or French farmers that they need to give up exporting their stuff to the UK.

The UK buys more German cars than any other EU country (except Germany). French farmers are not known for mildly accepting barriers to their trade - they'll soon be barricading the roads and setting fire to stuff when they're told they can no longer sell us their wine, apples, meat and other produce.

I rather think that those of us remaining in the EU, not to mention all major economies, will be in little mood to assist with anything having remotely to do with the UK, given the impact Brexit is likely to have everywhere in some form. Should the resulting shock be major, which it could be, given the shakiness of world finance and trade nowadays, I can imagine there being a long-term grudge against Britain for what will possibly be referred to as "destroying our common future," or at least "harshing the world's buzz" in nasty fashion.

The British have every right to choose Brexit. But the feeling I get across the Channel, sort of coughed behind napkins, is that there will be a great deal of animosity directed your way soon enough. Politicians may even yield to that in important aspects of policy. No unicorns and flowers await a Brexited Britain, that's for sure. Best case scenario: that curious "special relationship" with the Cousins becomes even more desperately one-way and smothering.

 

[ceptimus]

I think it's more likely that if there is a Brexit, other EU countries will be queueing up to hold referenda for Exits of their own.

 

[uke2se]

I think it's more likely that if there is a Brexit, other EU countries will be queueing up to hold referenda for Exits of their own.

That's a possibility. Far right groups are applying pressure all over Europe to exit the union. It's an extremely unhealthy blend of nationalism, xenophobia and wishful thinking.

 

[Tolls]

Oh, and I assume that the difference between the £350 million and £250 million per week is the rebate which is deducted before we pay. But the rebate could be reduced or abolished in the future.

Only if we (ie our government) decide to negotiate it away.

It's not something the EU can just pull out of thin air.

So as it stands it's 250 million.

 

[The Don]

I think it's more likely that if there is a Brexit, other EU countries will be queueing up to hold referenda for Exits of their own.

That's a possibility. Far right groups are applying pressure all over Europe to exit the union. It's an extremely unhealthy blend of nationalism, xenophobia and wishful thinking.

That's right, in countries all across Europe there millions of people who simply do not understand or appreciate the benefits of EU membership.

In part I think it's because we already enjoy those benefits and so will only miss them when and if they are withdrawn and in part it's because these benefits have gradually accrued over years so we're not really aware how far we have come in that time.

Of course there will always be some who don't want to be part of a larger group and who want to be isolated.

 

[CapelDodger]

That's a possibility. Far right groups are applying pressure all over Europe to exit the union. It's an extremely unhealthy blend of nationalism, xenophobia and wishful thinking.

A referendum needs its Cameron, so to speak. UKIP and his party had him frit so he used it tactically, which is the measure of that little man.

Should we leave the aftermath will put everybody else off, mark my words. With it seeming likely the fore-math isn't looking too clever either.

 

[CapelDodger]

In part I think it's because we already enjoy those benefits and so will only miss them when and if they are withdrawn and in part it's because these benefits have gradually accrued over years so we're not really aware how far we have come in that time.

For someone in their sixties like me life has changed so enormously that it's hard to pick out what's EU-related - or Clean Air Acts related, as another example. Most things are a mystery to most people.

Whistling past the churchyard ain't doing it no more; I'm banging out Men of Harlech.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Campaigning by both sides suspended for the day following the shooting of Jo Cox

 

[Belz...]

4. EU membership is caclulated to be worth £48 billion (£923 million per week)

How is that calculated?

That's funny, because I've heard the exact same thing said about the Stay side.

Perhaps we can conclude that there's a lot of lying on both sides. Personally I don't know what'd best, but it seems like the Brits are going to have to decide what they prefer: sovereignty or economic stability.