Brexit: the referendum

[MCel58]

I see, cheers. Well, that could be rather dramatic. I imagine it will be one of the arguments put forward by the "stay" campaign.

I doubt it no one really cares about those of us who decided to move to live and work in the UK. I suspect the expat part will be largely forgotten except for when we use our vote if we left less than 15 years ago. Even the embassy staff don't really have a clue about the answers to many expat issues

 

[GlennB]

I doubt it no one really cares about those of us who decided to move to live and work in the UK. I suspect the expat part will be largely forgotten except for when we use our vote if we left less than 15 years ago. Even the embassy staff don't really have a clue about the answers to many expat issues

And the continued index-linking of state pensions for UK expats in the case of Brexit is also 'less than clear'. It's almost as if this whole business wasn't thought through very well

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I doubt it no one really cares about those of us who decided to move to live and work in the UK. I suspect the expat part will be largely forgotten except for when we use our vote if we left less than 15 years ago. Even the embassy staff don't really have a clue about the answers to many expat issues

Its not really surprising that they don't have answers though as its probably subject to future negotiations and decisions that haven't yet been made. The embassy can't make promises on behalf of a foreign government. It's definitely uncertain and there will be a hell of a lot of work involving in unravelling the situation.

Another aspect for consideration is things like the FTA we have between the EU and places like Korea, Israel, Turkey, Mexico, etc. All of these would be subject to renegotiation and any work towards FTAs with places like China and India would be reset.

 

[The Don]

Its not really surprising that they don't have answers though as its probably subject to future negotiations and decisions that haven't yet been made. The embassy can't make promises on behalf of a foreign government. It's definitely uncertain and there will be a hell of a lot of work involving in unravelling the situation.

Another aspect for consideration is things like the FTA we have between the EU and places like Korea, Israel, Turkey, Mexico, etc. All of these would be subject to renegotiation and any work towards FTAs with places like China and India would be reset.

I was discussing this exact point with a retired businessman (he was director of an IT services company for 30 years, the last 10 of which under French ownership). My point was that the EU has established trade agreements (possibly on good terms) and that they would have to be revisited.

We was under the impression that such a task would be straightforward and at worst we'd get EU terms and likely we'd get better because we're Britain. This kind of magical thinking is rife in the "out" campaign.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I was discussing this exact point with a retired businessman (he was director of an IT services company for 30 years, the last 10 of which under French ownership). My point was that the EU has established trade agreements (possibly on good terms) and that they would have to be revisited.

We was under the impression that such a task would be straightforward and at worst we'd get EU terms and likely we'd get better because we're Britain. This kind of magical thinking is rife in the "out" campaign.

I imagine the reality is that in some cases we would get better, in some the same and in others worse. I doubt that many countries would just turn round and say 'we'll just keep the same rules and not renegotiate' and that takes time if nothing else.

 

[ddt]

There are more than a few which are a bit naughty. How about "We actually left a free trade zone (EFTA) to join the EU"........which is just nonsense. We left the EFTA to join the EEC, which was quite a different beast from the EU.

Richard Corbett gives some more background in this earlier article, which gives various quotes from the late 1960s and early 1970s that make it clear that "an ever closer union" was the vista at the time.

I make the European Commision at about 23k, from here Page 2

http://ec.europa.eu/civil_service/docs/europa_sp2_bs_sexe_x_age_en.pdf

This document says about 33k employees.

 

[MCel58]

Richard Corbett gives some more background in this earlier article, which gives various quotes from the late 1960s and early 1970s that make it clear that "an ever closer union" was the vista at the time.


This document says about 33k employees.

That's pretty low given that these are shared amongst 28 nations covering everything from agriculture (both funding and research) to funding climate control or innovation, research and harmonising intellectual property for companies, universities and research centres across the whole of the EU whilst according to this we have 425,000 people in the UK civil service alone. http://www.civilservant.org.uk/information-numbers.html.
Plus we have forgotten that like all nations we were not always major net contributors for a very long time much of the U.K. was a priority 1 and Priority 2 area and we had many of our inner city and rural projects (both infrastructure and revenue) all over the UK funded through both the European Social Fund and the European Regional Development Fund from when we joined until at least 2007. In fact during most of the 80s, the largest net contributor was Luxembourg per capita and the largest net receipient was Ireland. We tend to forget that ESF and ERDF funded to a large extent support for small businesses and research at universities and the delivery of projects for unemployed young people and others at a time of our highest unemployment figures paying a minimum of 50% and sometimes all of the costs. Also much of the money for Northern Ireland after the troubles and was paid for through these projects. I have no doubt that the EU probably needs some reform but that is true of the public sector in all countries.

 

[ComfySlippers]

This is why I questioned the comparison to Leeds City Council.
"Employees / Civil Servants" includes jobs that have nothing to do with Governing/Policy-Making directly or indirectly.

Technically a Postal Worker for Royal Mail is a Civil Servant.

 

[MCel58]

This is why I questioned the comparison to Leeds City Council.
"Employees / Civil Servants" includes jobs that have nothing to do with Governing/Policy-Making directly or indirectly.

Technically a Postal Worker for Royal Mail is a Civil Servant.

Actually they are not only those working for the Crown, excluding those employed by the Monarch herself are civil servants. The UK Civil Service therefore does not include those who are employed by Parliament, nor does it include those public servants employed by other public bodies such as Councils,Fire brigades, Royal Mail, Health Boards, Trusts etc. The civil service is made up of the Prime Ministers office, 24 Ministerial offices, 22 non ministerial offices and 372 various other agencies. Here is the list https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations Total public sector employment in the UK according to the office for national statistics is 5.372 million, which is its lowest level, on a headcount basis, since the start of the series in 1999.

 

[ComfySlippers]

Royal Mail, bad example. I'd forgot they were privatised.
(However postmen were classed as civil servants up to 1969.)

OT: I worked for them for ten years, including signing my life away under fear of being prosecuted under The OSA.
OT2: Add 1 to the total if I get my new job.

Carry on....


Sent from my iNsomniPad using Tapatalk

 

[Darat]

How many millions of pounds per.day.is our net contribution to EU funds?

Is that meant to be evidence behind a positive reason to leave the EU?

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Royal Mail, bad example. I'd forgot they were privatised.
(However postmen were classed as civil servants up to 1969.)

OT: I worked for them for ten years, including signing my life away under fear of being prosecuted under The OSA.
OT2: Add 1 to the total if I get my new job.

Carry on....


Sent from my iNsomniPad using Tapatalk

I think you brought up the Mail previously as something that the EU had some negative influence on as well. Wasn't clear what you meant there.

It's not really honest to compare the EU to a City Council I agree as the EU doesn't employee road sweepers and housing officers and the like. On the other hand its also mostly bluster and hyperbole to say that the EU is some overblown and bloated bureaucracy as 1) it isn't really that huge in comparison to other organisations and 2) you could level the same argument about any administration centre

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Is that meant to be evidence behind a positive reason to leave the EU?

I think the best evidence based reason in favour would be pretty difficult to make other than that we would regain control over certain things and would have the opportunity to change things for the better in those arenas.

In some ways that's similar to the Indyref as part of what is being gained is not the specific policy decision to be made, but the right to make that decision.

You could certainly make a strong case by cherry picking the best bits and basically saying that we would negotiate EU-like terms with the main European countries, exclude the ones we don't fancy and still keep our right to do what we like whenever we like.

How realistic that is though is pretty much in the eye of the beholder as there can be no evidence provided about the likelihood of that happening across the board.

What does occur to me is how many of the anti-EU arguments I do see that simply crumble in the light of hard facts. My general feeling is that if the case was so strong then they wouldn't have to rely on these half-truths to make it.

 

[3point14]

Either I spend ages looking at all the issues so I can cast an informed vote at the time.

Or I vote with my wallet - I think my job would disappear if we left the EU

Or I could vote simply to retain the basic human rights that Europe give me that the UK simply won't or don't.

Some or all of the above may be inaccurate, I haven't done any reading yet. How long do I have?

 

[Craig B]

Another apparent display of unpleasantness from the Brexit side is reported here.

... the Independent’s Jon Stone reports: “The European Parliament’s support for an arms embargo on Saudi Arabia shows why Britain must leave the European Union, one of the EU referendum “leave” campaigns has said. Leave.EU said the EP’s 359 to 212 vote to back an EU-wide end to weapons sales to the autocratic petrostate risked starting a “damaging trade war” ... Got that? We need to leave the EU because they are stopping us flogging arms to Saudi Arabia.​

 

[GlennB]

In other news: It appears that if you weigh the opinion polls in terms of the likelihood of the voters turning out then Brexit gets a boost. Older voters are more likely to turn out and be in favour of leaving:

Guardian

 

[jimbob]

According to HuffPo, David Ike is also in favour of Brexit...

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/02/23/eu-referendum-david-icke-brexit_n_9297112.html

 

[Jules Galen]

I think Europe should call the Bluff of those who insist that the UK separate from the EU. Because without the EU, the UK is nothing...Repeat....Nothing. And I think the EU should take this time to remind the UK that it is a weak partner in this affair.

The UK has thoroughly deindustrialized over the past 50 years to the extent where they can manufacture nothing on their own - NOTHING. Yet the Hubris of some in the UK is immense - they are so delusional that it has become dangerous.

But...the UK probably won't exit the EU and continue to suck on Europe's teets for the forseable future....biting the teet that feeds it all the while. Gawd I'm sick of this...it's so ugly and shameful that it's nauseating.

 

[ComfySlippers]

I think Europe should call the Bluff of those who insist that the UK separate from the EU. Because without the EU, the UK is nothing...Repeat....Nothing. And I think the EU should take this time to remind the UK that it is a weak partner in this affair.

The UK has thoroughly deindustrialized over the past 50 years to the extent where they can manufacture nothing on their own - NOTHING. Yet the Hubris of some in the UK is immense - they are so delusional that it has become dangerous.

But...the UK probably won't exit the EU and continue to suck on Europe's teets for the forseable future....biting the teet that feeds it all the while. Gawd I'm sick of this...it's so ugly and shameful that it's nauseating.

Meanwhile, back in reality....

 

[Jules Galen]

Meanwhile, back in reality....

I remember when the Brits used to joke about the backwardness of the Spanish - who actually look quite progressive compared to the Brits nowadays. mean, the Spanish have just installed a beautiful, country-wide High-Speed Rail Network and a Highway System that's even larges than the Germans'.

Meanwhile, the people in "The City" are convinced they are the center of the world and that their finance schemes actually produce wealth and keep the UK competitive. Hah! Want to see Big Finance? Look at China - these guys are the new World Bankers....Period.

Dude...the UK has failed, and that's why Ireland and many in Scotland want to get the hell away from it. After Ireland broke free, it became wealthier per capita than the UK - more proof that the UK is a failure. Within the next 30 years, Northern Ireland will also break away - and it will be happier for the separation.

The question is...."When does the UK wake up from its sleepwalking?"