Cont: Brexit: Now What? The Perfect 10.

[jimbob]

I'm just guessing but I would not be surprised if these countries represented a small part of British trade. It's not like it's difficult to negotiate a trade agreement between two states when there's very little trade nor very little potential for future growth in trade.

What? Like cheese exports to a nation which has few who are lactose-tolerant?

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

What? Like cheese exports to a nation which has few who are lactose-tolerant?

Talking of cheese I just got this message from one of my regular suppliers...

"European cheese is proving a problem at the moment, people are stockpiling incase of a no deal brexit causing lorries to back up at Calais. These lorries are delayed upto 3 days. Some French and Italian manufacturers are reluctant to put perishable cheese on the lorries as they don’t know how long they could be waiting to come over. Causing a massive shortage in supply!"

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I'm just guessing but I would not be surprised if these countries represented a small part of British trade. It's not like it's difficult to negotiate a trade agreement between two states when there's very little trade nor very little potential for future growth in trade.

I did a brief look to see if I could find this out but the message from .gov.uk is ambiguous. They say "these 58 countries cover 98% of Non-EU trade that we set out to secure" or something like that but it's not clear if that means 98% of Non-EU trade in total (which seems unlikely if it doesn't cover China/US/India) or whether they are being disingenuous and saying they achieved 98% coverage of the existing EU deals and trying to paint that as a win rather than a 2% loss.

 

[The Don]

I did a brief look to see if I could find this out but the message from .gov.uk is ambiguous. They say "these 58 countries cover 98% of Non-EU trade that we set out to secure" or something like that but it's not clear if that means 98% of Non-EU trade in total (which seems unlikely if it doesn't cover China/US/India) or whether they are being disingenuous and saying they achieved 98% coverage of the existing EU deals and trying to paint that as a win rather than a 2% loss.

It isn't 98% of non-EU trade.

It's a made up number to make their abject failure look less bad.

IIRC those trade deals cover less than 15% of our international trade.

 

[Darat]

I did a brief look to see if I could find this out but the message from .gov.uk is ambiguous. They say "these 58 countries cover 98% of Non-EU trade that we set out to secure" or something like that but it's not clear if that means 98% of Non-EU trade in total (which seems unlikely if it doesn't cover China/US/India) or whether they are being disingenuous and saying they achieved 98% coverage of the existing EU deals and trying to paint that as a win rather than a 2% loss.

What is the exact wording, with this government you have to read what they say very carefully, if it is “ Non-EU trade that we set out to secure" the key part is the “we set out to secure”. Remember this government’s approach to targets is to simply change the target. That little phrase could mean any number of countries from 1 upwards...

 

[Vixen]

John Redwood Tweets

@johnredwood
The UK has now agreed Free Trade deals with 58 countries before leaving the EU Customs Union. No apologies yet from those who said we would lose all EU trade deals on leaving. I look forward to us agreeing to join the large Pacific partnership which the EU has not joined.

So misleading. These are simply continuations of contracts that were already in place via the EU and had to be updated as a variation of that contract as a result of UK's exit from the EU. Liz Truss has been giving it large. I noted on one of her tweets she was bragging about her '58 trade deals' and had a roster of flags that rolled around so quickly you couldn't quite see them. I am sure I saw a Finnish flag whiz by - and no wonder, as Finland is in the EU so she is likely fibbing by flag.

James Cleverly is also tweeting it:

https://twitter.com/JamesCleverly/status/1339288619023028227?s=20

 

[Vixen]

Talking of cheese I just got this message from one of my regular suppliers...

"European cheese is proving a problem at the moment, people are stockpiling incase of a no deal brexit causing lorries to back up at Calais. These lorries are delayed upto 3 days. Some French and Italian manufacturers are reluctant to put perishable cheese on the lorries as they don’t know how long they could be waiting to come over. Causing a massive shortage in supply!"

Just think, Brexiteers, you are going to be missing your Maasdam and your Camembert. Oh I forgot, they don't eat 'that foreign muck'. Certainly not Boursin with all those herbs and garlic. Non, monsieur, non!

 

[The Don]

Seems I was being too optimistic regarding my 15% recollection

Only 10 per cent of all UK cross-border trade will be covered by current free-trade agreements after 31 December, City AM understands.

Fifty-two countries currently have free trade deals in place with the UK for the end of the Brexit transition period. These agreements account for only 10 per cent of the UK’s total cross-border trade, according to last year’s figures from the Office for National Statistics

https://www.cityam.com/90-per-cent-of-uk-trade-not-covered-by-free-trade-deals-post-brexit/

 

[The Don]

Just think, Brexiteers, you are going to be missing your Maasdam and your Camembert. Oh I forgot, they don't eat 'that foreign muck'. Certainly not Boursin with all those herbs and garlic. Non, monsieur, non!

No, they eat cheddar, quite a lot of which is imported from Ireland.

 

[Vixen]

Seems I was being too optimistic regarding my 15% recollection



https://www.cityam.com/90-per-cent-of-uk-trade-not-covered-by-free-trade-deals-post-brexit/

From the same article, re the much-touted 'US trade' deal as rushed through by Trump in his 'lame duck' days. Joe Biden could simply reverse it all.

Biden administration
The US, the UK’s biggest trading partner, is still yet to agree on a free-trade deal with the UK. An advisor to the president-elect Joe Biden’s campaign made it clear the new Biden administration “will not prioritise” a UK-US trade deal early in his presidency.

Moreover, the Democrat would also face hurdles appointing his US trade representative to lead the talks as the Senate, which must vote through appointments, could be controlled by Republicans.

This casts uncertainty over whether the UK and US could secure an agreement by July next year, when the president loses the power to negotiate trade deals, under current US laws.

 

[Vixen]

No, they eat cheddar, quite a lot of which is imported from Ireland.

Finland, like France, is a cheese-loving country - extensive shelves of the stuff - and English Cheddar will certainly be one that is missed, being the only really popular UK cheese here.

 

[The Don]

Finland, like France, is a cheese-loving country - extensive shelves of the stuff - and English Cheddar will certainly be one that is missed, being the only really popular UK cheese here.

I'm sure that the Irish will be very happy to step into the breach - especially if tariffs result in a significant reduction in sales of Irish cheddar to the UK.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

What is the exact wording, with this government you have to read what they say very carefully, if it is “ Non-EU trade that we set out to secure" the key part is the “we set out to secure”. Remember this government’s approach to targets is to simply change the target. That little phrase could mean any number of countries from 1 upwards...

The UK has now secured trade deals with 58 countries, accounting for £198bn worth of trade annually. This accounts for 96% of the value of trade with non-EU countries that we set out to secure agreements with at the start of the trade continuity programme.

That's the quote there. Actually 96% but you can see the ambiguity. I think they are saying they have achieved 96% of their target without actually saying what the target was but I assume it was continuity of existing EU FTAs?

In other words we are some percentage worse off then when we started.

 

[Ulf Nereng]

I just thought I'd mention that the trade deal with Norway is only a temporary one while a more comprehensive free-trade deal is being negotiated. It is to ensure trade continuity in the event that UK leaves EU without a deal.

"Norway is negotiating a comprehensive free trade agreement with the UK together with the other Efta countries Iceland and Liechtenstein. While the negotiations are continuing at full speed, they are behind schedule, partly because they only got fully under way in August due to delays in the UK. A free trade agreement cannot replace the EEA Agreement no matter how comprehensive and ambitious it is, and the Norwegian business sector must prepare to face new trade barriers when the UK leaves the single market."

 

[jimbob]

I just thought I'd mention that the trade deal with Norway is only a temporary one while a more comprehensive free-trade deal is being negotiated. It is to ensure trade continuity in the event that UK leaves EU without a deal.

"Norway is negotiating a comprehensive free trade agreement with the UK together with the other Efta countries Iceland and Liechtenstein. While the negotiations are continuing at full speed, they are behind schedule, partly because they only got fully under way in August due to delays in the UK. A free trade agreement cannot replace the EEA Agreement no matter how comprehensive and ambitious it is, and the Norwegian business sector must prepare to face new trade barriers when the UK leaves the single market."

I'm sure the highlighted isn't really Johnson's fault. But probably the French, German, or maybe even the Norwegians.

Meanwhile - even "project fear" didn't warn these Leave voters that their gardens would smell of piss as a consequence:

https://www.vice.com/en/article/dy8...r-brexit-chaos-and-it-literally-reeks-of-piss

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I'm sure the highlighted isn't really Johnson's fault. But probably the French, German, or maybe even the Norwegians.

Meanwhile - even "project fear" didn't warn these Leave voters that their gardens would smell of piss as a consequence:

https://www.vice.com/en/article/dy8...r-brexit-chaos-and-it-literally-reeks-of-piss

Call it schadenfreude if you want but at least they got what they voted for.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36616172

Won't be long until Kent is more pee-stained than Maggie's grave.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Sky News Tweets

Trucks queue down the M20 for mile upon mile at the entrance of the Eurotunnel in Folkestone, as companies rush to stockpile as the deadline for a Brexit trade deal looms.

Latest politics news here: http://trib.al/9V4nwCF

(Video in link)

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1339851685666144258

 

[lomiller]

I'm just guessing but I would not be surprised if these countries represented a small part of British trade. It's not like it's difficult to negotiate a trade agreement between two states when there's very little trade nor very little potential for future growth in trade.

Most of the are countries or trading blocks that the EU already had deals with, and the UK just copied the deal the EU had already negotiated. The problem with that approach is that deals negotiated for the EU as a whole is going to protect sectors the UK that don't have as strong a presence in the UK and seek to gain access to markets for things the UK the UK doesn't export.


As part of the EU these things would still benefit the UK due to the spin off benefits the UK would enjoy. Eg the UK could sell financial services to EU business that benefited from the trade deal, but this is no longer the case.


These cut-and-past deals also issues like the one I linked a week or two ago, where the UK looses all access to the Canadian dairy market even though the EU deal it copied had this access. This happened because Canada already gave the UK quota concessions as part of the original deal with the EU, so it didn't agree to any new UK specific quota allocations. The UK, however, didn't negotiate for any of this quota in the withdrawal agreement so it all remains with the EU and the UK looses the ability to use that quota allocation to sell dairy products to Canada in Jan.


Most of all of these deals are going to be objectively worse than what the UK should have been aiming for even though the terms are nominally unchanged.

 

[catsmate]

Is that before or after he announces a new body for handling trade with India called the East India Company?

PS William Dalrymple's The Anarchy is well worth a read, if you haven't already.

Ah, the people whose greed and stupidity triggered the American Revolution.

 

[gypsyjackson]

No, they eat cheddar, quite a lot of which is imported from Ireland.

Finland, like France, is a cheese-loving country - extensive shelves of the stuff - and English Cheddar will certainly be one that is missed, being the only really popular UK cheese here.

I'm sure that the Irish will be very happy to step into the breach - especially if tariffs result in a significant reduction in sales of Irish cheddar to the UK.

At one point, possibly up to today, the UK imported bulk mild cheddar from Lithuania (among others), which companies then cut up and packaged. Under WTO place of last processing rules, that was then legally sold as made in UK.

So Finland should have a nearby source of a certain type of UK cheddar.

ETA - I looked up the figures for UK imports of cheese:

https://www.trademap.org/Country_SelProductCountry.aspx?nvpm=1|826||||0406|||4|1|1|1|1||2|1|1|1

Lithuania still in top 20 for exporters to the UK. Ever seen Lithuanian cheese marked as such for sale in the UK? Any of the countries you wouldn’t recognise from the supermarket shelves presumably export for either repackaging under WTO rules or entry to the catering/food processing sector.