Brexit: Now What? Part IV

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I understand.

But lack of clarity is one point you could protest against. It looks from this place that the entire population is resigned to the fait accompli that will be presented as the end result of this whole process.

What is needed for a good political climate is a good dialogue between parties.
Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. And it is the task of the losing party to take care their positions are listened to.
And if you truly believe that the other side is trampling on too many important issues you raise your voice more.
And if the politicians don't do that, then that task falls to the population itself.


Just like in the 80's here in the Netherlands during the demonstrations against nuclear weapons. In my lifetime perhaps the most divisive subject there was (my wife and I being on opposite sides on this one) in this country.
The demonstrations were huge. In the end the protestors didn't win, but they were listened to and the end result did take their position in.

But. In the end Brexit is not my country.
I'm just amazed, considering the split there was.

To get a good protest, you need an organisation or organisations to do the legwork. With something like nuclear weapons there's a clear thing to protest against and, at least in the UK, a decent-sized organisation with plenty of local representation to act as a catalyst. Likewise with the fox-hunting debate, there are organisations either side to rally their people to attend large-scale demonstrations.

With Brexit, it's not clear who should be doing the organising at this stage. Both major political parties are now pro-Brexit (still don't know how that happened, especially with Labour where the membership and, more importantly supporters, were strongly in favour or Remaining - but nevermind) and in any case if a political party organises it, people from other parties will not attend.

An organisation like the TUC could do some organisation but it's not clear what the possible impact on jobs and public services is likely to be. AFAIK there isn't an adequately funded pro-Remain organisation to organise and lead any demonstration.

I can see how there would be demonstrations in Scotland, the views of a country have (once again ?) been brushed aside by Westminster - which IMO does provide more of a point of focus.
 
Possible.
But why give that concession if you don't agree with it.
'Ok. You win. Don't care if you expected to win or not. You still did win. Now get to work for all of us!'

Something like that.

Oh I agree with you.

I was just listing some of the reasons why the lack of a coherent plan wasn't some canny move on behalf of the Brexiteers to stifle protest.
 
Oh I agree with you.

I was just listing some of the reasons why the lack of a coherent plan wasn't some canny move on behalf of the Brexiteers to stifle protest.

To clarify, I was thinking more about the continued lack of anything resembling a coherent plan, rather than the initial surprise of "Holy ****, we actually won?!". I think you're right that they didn't expect to win (I think much the same is true of our current President).

Just seems like there's a continued resistance to actually work toward developing any coherent plan. I suspect it's more an unconscious ass-covering rather than an intentional ploy, though: they can talk about the goals that sound good, but the avoidance of any actual methods to achieve them limits the amount of criticism. A side effect of that is that there's nothing to really rally against.
 
To clarify, I was thinking more about the continued lack of anything resembling a coherent plan, rather than the initial surprise of "Holy ****, we actually won?!". I think you're right that they didn't expect to win (I think much the same is true of our current President).

Just seems like there's a continued resistance to actually work toward developing any coherent plan. I suspect it's more an unconscious ass-covering rather than an intentional ploy, though: they can talk about the goals that sound good, but the avoidance of any actual methods to achieve them limits the amount of criticism. A side effect of that is that there's nothing to really rally against.

I think part of it is any definite plan would start alienating major parts of their coalition. So that as long as they can convince all their supporters that their own pet issue could be an achievable result even if it is directly impossible to have with other supporters pet issues then they can keep their coalition together.

So as it is needed to keep the support of the brexiters it is also effective at minimizing the protest of those against it.

So it is all about keeping the brexit alive with out making any kind of clear plan for anyone to take issue with. So I expect a dealless brexit, closed borders all round and massive upheaval and dislike of it as soon as it happens.
 
You have a point. Makes me wonder if the lack of any clear goals or proposals isn't part of some plan to deny any sort of rallying point to the opposition.

Of course, I'm probably giving too much credit.


Never attribute to intelligence that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
 
I think part of it is any definite plan would start alienating major parts of their coalition. So that as long as they can convince all their supporters that their own pet issue could be an achievable result even if it is directly impossible to have with other supporters pet issues then they can keep their coalition together.

So as it is needed to keep the support of the brexiters it is also effective at minimizing the protest of those against it.

So it is all about keeping the brexit alive with out making any kind of clear plan for anyone to take issue with. So I expect a dealless brexit, closed borders all round and massive upheaval and dislike of it as soon as it happens.

Yeah, I think we're probably on the same page. That's more-or-less what I meant by ass covering (but I wasn't thinking about the coallationist? Collaborative? whatever nature of the UK government).

My idle wonder that it could be a ploy is much like my idle wonder that Trump's actions are intentional in order to destabilize the U.S. In both cases, I think it's more of an un-happy accident.
 
Just seems like there's a continued resistance to actually work toward developing any coherent plan.

IMO it's likely because, even in the cabinet, there are a number of opposing and mutually exclusive views and that because Theresa May's primary objective appears to be retaining the Premiership she cannot afford to set a course and risk alienating the majority of her cabinet.

On any point there are at least two (and sometimes many more) opposing views on the subject so it's almost impossible to gain consensus and even if consensus is gained on one point, because everything is interconnected, it may undo a consensus on another.

The ridiculous charade of asking the cabinet to consider two models for customs (and hence the Irish border) neither of which appears to be organisationally, technically or logistically possible - and in any case both of which are likely to be rejected by the EU - is IMO a prime example.

IMO if we have to Brexit then there are two possible approaches to customs:

  1. Stay in the Custom Union and EEA and annoy the vast majority of Brexiteers
  2. Drop out of everything, have a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland and wave goodbye to the Good Friday Agreement

Anything else (apart from variations on these themes) is just wishful thinking.
 
That's the key is it? Does it matter which party it is? Does it matter if they get sole majority or are part of a coalition? Are there any other 'outs'?


Any party that wins a clear majority will do. If it's a coalition then it's up to the parties that form the coalition to negotiate what they will and won't implement from their respective manifestos: if both the main parties in a coalition promised a referendum then it's pretty clear they would agree to keep it in.


There has been speculation that Cameron only promised a referendum (that he didn't really want) because he didn't expect to win an outright majority and knew that a Liberal coalition partner would veto such a referendum. We might eventually become more informed about this when Cameron and Co. get around to writing their memoirs on the matter - or when government records are released after 40 years or however long it is these days.
 
Thanks.

This place here is my primary place of information concerning the Brexit. And yes. I would be the first to say that I could be better informed.

Are you in Theresa May's Cabinet?
 
Don't think so. He hasn't publicly stabbed any colleagues in the back in national news media, so far as I'm aware.

True, but if I am remembering correctly erwinl is heavily invested in Europe... to the extent of living there


I suppose more pertinently, he is aware that he could be better informed.

Silly me - NOT A CHANCE OF BEING IN THE CURRENT UK GOVERNMENT
 
:D:thumbsup:

Are you in Theresa May's Cabinet?
Not that I know of. But with this whole dual citizenship going on. Do you think I might have a chance?

Don't think so. He hasn't publicly stabbed any colleagues in the back in national news media, so far as I'm aware.
Well. I'm a quick learner, so that shouldn't be too much of a problem I hope.

True, but if I am remembering correctly erwinl is heavily invested in Europe... to the extent of living there


I suppose more pertinently, he is aware that he could be better informed.

Silly me - NOT A CHANCE OF BEING IN THE CURRENT UK GOVERNMENT
First part: Yes there might be some conflict of interest here. But nothing which some back stabbing wouldn't solve, I guess.
Part 2: Damn! And I was so close!!
 
I know it's The Sun but ...


DAVID Davis is devising a new Brexit plan to break a talks deadlock by giving Northern Ireland joint EU and UK status as well as a border buffer zone.
Under the radical blueprint, the province would operate a double hatted regime of European and British regulations at the same time, so it can trade freely with both.

The Brexit Secretary is also drawing up a 10 mile-wide buffer zone the length of Northern Ireland’s 310 mile border with Ireland.
Dubbed a ‘special economic zone’, it will be for local traders such as dairy farmers – who make up 90 per cent of the cross border traffic – and share the same trade rules as south of the border.

The two plans will together eradicate the need for any border check points, which is a major EU demand.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6423932/david-davis-northern-ireland-brexit-plans-dup/
 
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2016: “End EU red tape!”
2018: “Add UK red tape to EU red tape”

2016: No border in Ireland.
2018: Border in Ireland to be 10 miles wide.
 
I know it's The Sun but ...


DAVID Davis is devising a new Brexit plan to break a talks deadlock by giving Northern Ireland joint EU and UK status as well as a border buffer zone.
Under the radical blueprint, the province would operate a double hatted regime of European and British regulations at the same time, so it can trade freely with both.

The Brexit Secretary is also drawing up a 10 mile-wide buffer zone the length of Northern Ireland’s 310 mile border with Ireland.
Dubbed a ‘special economic zone’, it will be for local traders such as dairy farmers – who make up 90 per cent of the cross border traffic – and share the same trade rules as south of the border.

The two plans will together eradicate the need for any border check points, which is a major EU demand.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6423932/david-davis-northern-ireland-brexit-plans-dup/

If Northern Ireland has joint EU/UK status but the rest of the UK does not, will that result in a hard border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK which in turn will anger the DUP ?

I mean as long as we're happy with a hard border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK then it's potentially a workable solution - but where does that leave "Brexit means Brexit" for the people of Northern Ireland ?

At least David Davis has appreciated that the magical technological solution cannot work.
 
I think it's deliberately complicated and stupid so that when it is inevitably rejected by the EU it can be claimed they are trying to wreck any deals and they are being unreasonable. It's the fault of the EU not the govt etc.
 
2016: “End EU red tape!”
2018: “Add UK red tape to EU red tape”

2016: No border in Ireland.
2018: Border in Ireland to be 10 miles wide.

2016: Brexit means Brexit.
2018: Brexit means Brexit unless you're in Northern Ireland (and whatever happens w.r.t. Gibraltar).
 
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