Brexit: Now What? Part IV

Status
Not open for further replies.
Hubert Cumberdale said:
IME the ferries (and Eurostar) have exported borders. To go from Dover to Calais, you first go through both British and French passport controls. And the same going the other way.

The difficulty is not with passport checks though.

The difficulty is with customs checks. We can't just wave through freight and cargo from the EU unless we do the same with frieght and cargo arriving from everywhere.

To do so would be a violation of WTO trading terms.
Click to expand...

Oh absolutely. I was just responding to a series of posts from Aber specifically relating to people rather than goods.

Yes, the customs system will come under considerable pressure (to put it mildly). Apparently there is a new IT system in the works (which is worrying enough given government "expertise" with large IT systems) which is due to go live around Brexit time.

Reportedly it's able to cope with the expected five-fold increase in customs declarations but I'd take that with a large pinch of salt. Anyone with a lorry park in the Calais or Dover region is going to be doing good business :D. Likewise anyone in that general area with a burger van...
 
ceptimus said:
Try this (leave supporting) Grauniad report for a start. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/05/chief-economist-of-bank-of-england-admits-errors
Click to expand...

Fail. You claimed:

They made plenty of forecasts about what would happen after a vote to leave but before the leaving process was completed. Mostly wrong.
Click to expand...

To prove the claims of the Remain side were "mostly wrong," you will need to tabulate all of them, indicating which - which you claim are the majority - were incorrect. Cherry-picking some isn't good enough.
 
Archie Gemmill Goal said:
British citizens are going to be required to carry ID to travel within the UK now? And have spot checks carried out to check they are British enough?
Click to expand...

It appears that photo ID is currently required for ferry travel, so not a major change from the current position.
 
Captain_Swoop said:
But not for the Unionists. British Citizens treated as second rate and needing passport and security checks before they can travel to other parts of the UK but free to travel to a foreign country?
Click to expand...

Darat said:
If that is your evidence then my statement you made it up remains true.
Click to expand...

The Don said:
^ This.

Whilst the most logistically convenient ways of addressing this would either be Irish reunification or implementing a "hard" border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, politically these would be nonstarters from the unionist perspective and the Conservatives are currently heavily reliant on the support of the DUP.

I'm sure that there are a host of other factors that would need to be considered before establishing an open border between Ireland and Northern Ireland including customs union status, adherence to various European laws if goods, services and livestock are to flow freely, and the movement of people and labour, but as I see it, the biggest political hurdle would be the hard border.
Click to expand...

Indeed it is a big political hurdle.

From the previous part of this thread:


jimbob said:
Now add in that the DUP want no hard border between north and south,

https://www.itv.com/news/update/2017-10-11/brexit-dup-fear-disaster-no-deal-border-implications/


and no sea border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...ejects-prospect-post-brexit-irish-sea-border/
Click to expand...
 
Information Analyst said:
To prove the claims of the Remain side were "mostly wrong," you will need to tabulate all of them, indicating which - which you claim are the majority - were incorrect. Cherry-picking some isn't good enough.
Click to expand...

I can't be bothered to do all that work. I stand by my claim though.

If you'd like to do the work and prove by the same method that they were "mostly right" then please, have at it!

It would be a difficult task either way, as first you need some way of enumerating the claims. How do you decide what was a claim, what was not a claim, and what was merely a repeat of an earlier claim expressed in a slightly different way? As these claims/non-claims were made by politicians and their supporters they were often not that clear - there are lots of grey areas.
 
Last edited:
"Government loses vote on publishing Brexit impact assessments", and it seems like it's a binding vote, despite the lack of Tory opposition that has scuppered previous votes.

This could be fun.

Link
 
ceptimus said:
I can't be bothered to do all that work. I stand by my claim though.

If you'd like to do the work and prove by the same method that they were "mostly right" then please, have at it!

It would be a difficult task either way, as first you need some way of enumerating the claims. How do you decide what was a claim, what was not a claim, and what was merely a repeat of an earlier claim expressed in a slightly different way? As these claims/non-claims were made by politicians and their supporters they were often not that clear - there are lots of grey areas.
Click to expand...

In short: You can't or don't want to corroborate your own extreme claims.
 
Information Analyst said:
In short: You can't or don't want to corroborate your own extreme claims.
Click to expand...
You're the one who's claiming that the work is necessary. I don't think it's necessary, and I'm not prepared to do it.

I've also already explained that I think you are attempting to set an impossible goal. Define what you think qualifies as a "Remain claim" and how you will decide whether or not that claim proved to be correct.

You can't do that can you? Try to think more critically.
 
quadraginta said:
And that of the government's actions regarding Brexit in general, it would appear.

At least the response is consistent.
Click to expand...

I am starting to wonder if Ceptimus is actually David Davis.
 
ceptimus said:
Typical BBC pro-Remain report. They always contain words like "could", "might", "up to", "unnamed source", "possible", and so on...
Click to expand...

Firstly it was a bit of a lighthearted aside - and I provided the "could", but if you want to delve deeper.

The BBC article (had you actually read it) actually says:

The United Kingdom imports the majority of the pork products we consume, from loins to bacon. With 17 months to go until we are due to leave the European Union, how will Brexit affect our pork?
Click to expand...

It actually mostly focuses on the "plight" of the Danish pork producers and how they may struggle post-Brexit if the UK imports more pork from elsewhere (although as the article points out, it would likely have lower welfare standards than EU pork).
 
The Don said:
"plight" of the Danish pork producers and how they may struggle post-Brexit if the UK imports more pork from elsewhere (although as the article points out, it would likely have lower welfare standards than EU pork).
Click to expand...

Yes, the British pig farmers in the fuller broadcast piece were at pains to say they didn't want standards to be lowered, as they provide a "quality product," although presumably there's an element of them not wanting to be undercut by meat produced to lower standards.
 
Information Analyst said:
Yes, the British pig farmers in the fuller broadcast piece were at pains to say they didn't want standards to be lowered, as they provide a "quality product," although presumably there's an element of them not wanting to be undercut by meat produced to lower standards.
Click to expand...

Within the EU this already happens our pig "animal welfare" standards are higher than say Denmark's.

ETA: And for those that want to know the details - start here: http://www.pig-world.co.uk/news/hig...e-standards-compare-with-our-competitors.html

This Brexit malarkey and all new trade deals will be a doddle!
 
Last edited:
Darat said:
This Brexit malarkey and all new trade deals will be a doddle!
Click to expand...

Exactly !

According to Dr Liam Fox, the trade deal with the EU will be the one of the easiest ever:

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...trade-deal-after-brexit-easiest-human-history

...although not having one won't be a biggie either :rolleyes:

...furthermore there'll be another 40 deals signed the second after Brexit

https://news.finance.co.uk/trade-secretary-liam-fox-pledges-sign-40-free-trade-deals-second-brexit/

It's almost as if he doesn't have a single solitary clue :rolleyes:
 
Interesting point mentioned on PM tonight.
EU trade deals with various counties including Canada and Korea have clauses that say trade deals with other counties will not be on better terms.
So, either GB gets a worse or similar deal or a number of existing deals will have to be renegotiated.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom