Brexit: Now What? Part III

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The Don said:
It is a regular thing done as part of the British Social Attitudes Survey. AFAIK it's reasonably highly regarded.
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Interesting. Could you post a link to the most recent one please? 2008 seems a bit out of date.



Where did you get this impression from ?

tbh it's not something that crops up in conversation often which means I tend to rely on opinion polls. If you've got this impression from talking to people it could be that you're talking to a skewed group and/or people are changing what they're saying because of your enthusiasm for a united Ireland.
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Its not from talking to people but from listening to views expressed on current affairs shows, radio phone ins and the like whenever the subjects crops up. The idea that the UK would be ripped apart by Scotland leaving is one you hear in debates about Scottish independence, I've never heard the same sentiment about a united Ireland.
 
Strawberry said:
The idea that the UK would be ripped apart by Scotland leaving is one you hear in debates about Scottish independence, I've never heard the same sentiment about a united Ireland.
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I can understand that. Most of Ireland seceded from the UK nearly a century ago, but the UK survived with a mere change of name. If NI was removed, presumably the "United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland" would cease to exist, but Great Britain would remain, and it is the core territory of the state.

Removing Scotland would abolish the UK and GB at one and the same time; a much more radical amputation.
 
Craig B said:
I can understand that. Most of Ireland seceded from the UK nearly a century ago, but the UK survived with a mere change of name. If NI was removed, presumably the "United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland" would cease to exist, but Great Britain would remain, and it is the core territory of the state.

Removing Scotland would abolish the UK and GB at one and the same time; a much more radical amputation.
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Yes I can see how its more of an existential threat than a united Ireland at this stage in history. I expect if we went back to pre-1921 any talk of Irish independence would raise the same response, but most people are used to the idea that Ireland is a separate country at this stage.
 
quadraginta said:
Everything there is to learn we already know?

Sure. Automation has reached its ultimate expression.

Obviously there is no room for any progress on this front.

:rolleyes:
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There are types of crop-picking that nobody has managed to automate yet. I never said it could "never" be done, but it's clearly not possible in a way that is cheaper than human labour just yet. Losing such labour due to Brexit will result in farmers switching crops, not the sudden appearance of the aforementioned Agribot 3000™.
 
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Strawberry said:
Yes I can see how its more of an existential threat than a united Ireland at this stage in history. I expect if we went back to pre-1921 any talk of Irish independence would raise the same response, but most people are used to the idea that Ireland is a separate country at this stage.
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I tend to the view that the same rhetoric that was trotted out when the prospect of Scottish independence was on the cards would be applied in the event that NI independence or Irish reunification were on the cards. There are a lot of people with a strong interest in keeping the UK united - one of the two major parties specifically has it in the party name - so I think that this would be quite a thing were it to come to pass.
 
I note that May's response to Keir Starmer forensically taking apart the Brexit bill and David Davis, was to leave the chamber.

This is the level of investment and commitment that the PM has to the most important thing (at least) since the war, to leave to avoid having to hear anything negative :rolleyes:
 
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The Don said:
I tend to the view that the same rhetoric that was trotted out when the prospect of Scottish independence was on the cards would be applied in the event that NI independence or Irish reunification were on the cards. There are a lot of people with a strong interest in keeping the UK united - one of the two major parties specifically has it in the party name - so I think that this would be quite a thing were it to come to pass.
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No, I don't think so. The same Conservative and Unionist party is the author of the Anglo Irish agreement which gave the Irish government an input in the running of NI, and is signed up to the GFA which extends that role and also agrees that the constitutional status of NI can change with a 50%+1 vote in a referendum. Wasn't it also a Tory minister who declared that Britain has no selfish, strategic interest in Northern Ireland?

I don't see the same attitude towards Scotland at all. There was one outlier opinion poll during the Scottish referendum that showed a majority for yes, and it prompted all three party leaders to decamp from Westminster to Scotland to jointly promise them the sun, moon and stars if they voted no. I can't see the same happening if there was a nationalist electoral majority in NI, I just can't.
 
I'd also be interested to know whether the UK would have voted for Brexit if one inevitable consequence was that NI would become independent or reunite with Ireland. A lot of the support for Brexit came from the Conservative (and Unionist) Party so I reckon a few would have been given pause for thought.
 
Strawberry said:
No, I don't think so. The same Conservative and Unionist party is the author of the Anglo Irish agreement which gave the Irish government an input in the running of NI, and is signed up to the GFA which extends that role and also agrees that the constitutional status of NI can change with a 50%+1 vote in a referendum. Wasn't it also a Tory minister who declared that Britain has no selfish, strategic interest in Northern Ireland?

I don't see the same attitude towards Scotland at all. There was one outlier opinion poll during the Scottish referendum that showed a majority for yes, and it prompted all three party leaders to decamp from Westminster to Scotland to jointly promise them the sun, moon and stars if they voted no. I can't see the same happening if there was a nationalist electoral majority in NI, I just can't.
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Maybe you can't, doesn't mean that it wouldn't happen.

btw, here's a link to the British Social Attitudes Survey

http://natcen.ac.uk/our-research/research/british-social-attitudes/
 
The Don said:
I'd also be interested to know whether the UK would have voted for Brexit if one inevitable consequence was that NI would become independent or reunite with Ireland. A lot of the support for Brexit came from the Conservative (and Unionist) Party so I reckon a few would have been given pause for thought.
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A small point - could you pleast stop mentioning an independent Northern Ireland as if its a thing that could happen? There is no such option on the table, it would contravene the GFA, it would be economically and socially unviable, and it would be rejected by the majority of both unionists and nationalists in NI itself.

Might as well suggest NI becomes part of the Moon.
 
Strawberry said:
Would it be a real problem for the UK government though? Obviously it would for this particular government because of their agreement with the DUP, but in theory would a UK government with a large majority at Westminster have any problem the idea? Would the British public be up in arms about it?
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Almost certainly not. I think the vast majority of the British public is, at best, ambivalent to the idea of "losing" NI.
 
Strawberry said:
A small point - could you pleast stop mentioning an independent Northern Ireland as if its a thing that could happen? There is no such option on the table, it would contravene the GFA, it would be economically and socially unviable, and it would be rejected by the majority of both unionists and nationalists in NI itself.

Might as well suggest NI becomes part of the Moon.
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The reunification option isn't on the table either at the moment.

OTOH independence could suddenly become popular (and ways found through the GFA to allow it) if it was the only way in which NI and Ireland could have an open border post-Brexit.
 
Strawberry said:
I can't find anything on there that shows a UK wide opinion poll on the subject of Irish unity, despite using the search function.
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AFAIK it's a wide-ranging survey which is carried out on a regular basis rather than a specific "attitudes to Irish reunification" survey. The way I read it, In some years questions relating to attitudes to Irish reunification were included.

Why not contact them directly if you have questions ?
 
The Don said:
The reunification option isn't on the table either at the moment.

OTOH independence could suddenly become popular (and ways found through the GFA to allow it) if it was the only way in which NI and Ireland could have an open border post-Brexit.
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The reunification option is on the table and always has been - that's why there have always been political parties representing Irish nationalism in the province, and commanding a significant amount of support at the ballot box.

I have to shake my head at your notion of independence suddenly becoming popular in NI, or that the GFA could ever allow it. That's fantasy politics. Its even more fantasy politics if you think it could be done to allow an open border, because the only way that would happen is if an independent NI was part of the EU, and the very first government to veto the application would be the Irish one.

Back to reality - Michel Barnier has now clearly stated that NI should have a different relationship with the EU to the rest of the UK. Its the most common sense stance to take, but will the UK government use common sense?
 
Strawberry said:
Back to reality - Michel Barnier has now clearly stated that NI should have a different relationship with the EU to the rest of the UK. Its the most common sense stance to take, but will the UK government use common sense?
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It has not so far in the Brexit process and IMO Brexit itself makes no sense.

Common sense would have had the Brexit campaign knowing what their plans for Brexit were and the groundwork done for the Brexit negotiations ahead of time so as to catch the EU on the back foot. Common sense would have appointed someone in charge of Brexit who had some subject matter knowledge, a willingness and ability to learn and a work ethic which extended beyond three days a week, forty odd weeks a year.

Common sense would have seen the benefits of Brexit clearly defined and widely publicised so as to get buy-in from the major stakeholders as opposed to the benefits being ill-defined and stakeholders having their mouths stuffed with gold (farmers and car manufacturers) or ignored and/or derided (the much larger service sector).
 
Strawberry said:
Its not unworkable to create internal checks between NI and the rest of the UK, its very workable indeed and far more workable than trying to police the land border between NI and the Republic.

Its really the most obvious and sensible solution to the border conundrum but given that the government is in hock to the DUP I doubt common sense will rule the day.
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It's not unworkable for a resident of the UK to find it easier to travel to Ireland than to other parts of the UK? For there to be internal customs checks between two parts of the UK and none between a part of the UK and a foreign country?

It seems patently ridiculous on the face of it.
 
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