Brexit: Now What? Part III

[McHrozni]

This BBC story suggests that the EU are pushing for a different Brexit deal for Northern Ireland than for the rest of the UK. This could be an enormous fillip for the NI economy as UK businesses seek to set up in NI to get access to the EU.

It could also mean that NI becomes the focus for smuggling, people and/or goods, into the UK.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41183041

I think something like this will be necessary. Northern Ireland is a special case and EU recognizes that to the fullest extent. It's also beneficial to the UK. If there is a cliff Brexit that is somewhat cataclysmic to the British economy, Northern Ireland may well vote to join the Republic of Ireland. It's clear a referendum will be demanded and it's a tad difficult to see London prevent it.

This is relevant, I don't know if it was posted here before or not:

https://www.indy100.com/article/are...-northern-europe-really-in-the-uk--eJ0axHCqmx

McHrozni

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

This BBC story suggests that the EU are pushing for a different Brexit deal for Northern Ireland than for the rest of the UK. This could be an enormous fillip for the NI economy as UK businesses seek to set up in NI to get access to the EU.

It could also mean that NI becomes the focus for smuggling, people and/or goods, into the UK.



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41183041

Just think these things are unworkable. Same when snp were proposing separate deals for Scotland. You would have to then create internal checks and barriers within the uk.

 

[Aber]

This BBC story suggests that the EU are pushing for a different Brexit deal for Northern Ireland than for the rest of the UK. This could be an enormous fillip for the NI economy as UK businesses seek to set up in NI to get access to the EU.

Not sure that the quote supports your reading:

people can work, go to school or get medical treatment either side of the Irish border

IIRC this is pretty much the case already under the Common Travel Area for British and Irish citizens, upholding which seems to be one of the Government's priorities.

The quote has nothing about free movement of goods.

 

[The Don]

Not sure that the quote supports your reading:

Surprisingly enough, I do

IIRC this is pretty much the case already under the Common Travel Area for British and Irish citizens, upholding which seems to be one of the Government's priorities.

The quote has nothing about free movement of goods.

"Pretty much the case" hides a multitude of sins and the Common Travel area for British and Irish citizens must be extended to include all EU citizens as far as I can see unless there are going to be border posts to weed out Irish citizens coming to work in NI from other EU citizens.

If there's going to be a free movement of people then there's going to be a free movement of goods unless vehicles coming across the border are going to be subject to customs checks. Whether the movement is legal is a different matter but EU goods which are legally in Ireland will find their way over the border into Northern Ireland if it's financially advantageous for them to do so.

 

[Strawberry]

Just think these things are unworkable. Same when snp were proposing separate deals for Scotland. You would have to then create internal checks and barriers within the uk.

Its not unworkable to create internal checks between NI and the rest of the UK, its very workable indeed and far more workable than trying to police the land border between NI and the Republic.

Its really the most obvious and sensible solution to the border conundrum but given that the government is in hock to the DUP I doubt common sense will rule the day.

 

[Garrison]

It's nonsense that migrants 'only take jobs the Brits don't want' - there is competition in all sectors. The number of smaller employers who will take the cheaper option, means homegrown educated Brits lose out, or accept lower rates.

As it is a free market (to a large extent), then making supply of skills scarcer, means a premium for skilled workers who have worked hard for their skill.

As others have pointed out what was under discussion was specifically 'low skill' jobs in sectors such as agriculture that are unfillable with British labour as it stands. One solution is of course increased wages, but that would lead to increased prices in the private sector and even more strain on budgets in the public sector. The other option, the one far more likely to appeal to May, is increased coercion of the unemployed by the government.

On another topic May is desperately seeking support for her Brexit strategy and achieving the opposite:

FTSE 100 chiefs’ fury at No 10 letter backing ministers on Brexit

Downing Street is asking Britain’s biggest companies to give public support to the Government’s approach to its Brexit negotiations, a move which has provoked fury in a string of blue-chip boardrooms.

 

[The Don]

Its not unworkable to create internal checks between NI and the rest of the UK, its very workable indeed and far more workable than trying to police the land border between NI and the Republic.

Its really the most obvious and sensible solution to the border conundrum but given that the government is in hock to the DUP I doubt common sense will rule the day.

I agree that logistically it's perfectly workable the thing is that politically it's a non-starter. In effect it would make Northern Ireland part of Ireland rather than the UK which would be a masterstroke from the Irish and a real problem for the UK government.

 

[Strawberry]

I agree that logistically it's perfectly workable the thing is that politically it's a non-starter. In effect it would make Northern Ireland part of Ireland rather than the UK which would be a masterstroke from the Irish and a real problem for the UK government.

Would it be a real problem for the UK government though? Obviously it would for this particular government because of their agreement with the DUP, but in theory would a UK government with a large majority at Westminster have any problem the idea? Would the British public be up in arms about it?

 

[The Don]

Would it be a real problem for the UK government though? Obviously it would for this particular government because of their agreement with the DUP, but in theory would a UK government with a large majority at Westminster have any problem the idea? Would the British public be up in arms about it?

By British, I assume you mean Welsh, Scottish, English but not Northern Irish.

I don't think that the British public would be up in arms, but I think there would be a lot of raised eyebrows at the notion that while the main thrust of Brexit was "to get control back over immigration", it would be easier for EU citizens to be able to get to part of the UK&NI than it is for British citizens from the rest of the UK.

Beyond that, I guess it would depend on the extent to which EU laws had to apply in Northern Ireland in order to secure the freedom of movement and so on, but that could also cause eyebrows to be raised as Irish sovereignty was allowed to be applied by the back door.

I suppose it comes down to how up in arms would the British people as a whole get if Northern Ireland becomes part of Ireland.

 

[Garrison]

Would it be a real problem for the UK government though? Obviously it would for this particular government because of their agreement with the DUP, but in theory would a UK government with a large majority at Westminster have any problem the idea? Would the British public be up in arms about it?

The problem for any UK government is is the Unionists in NI would be up in arms about it, literally not figuratively.

 

[Strawberry]

The problem for any UK government is is the Unionists in NI would be up in arms about it, literally not figuratively.

So the British government is afraid to do what's right for NI due to fear of violence from the Unionists?

If that's the case, then its obvious what nationalists in NI should do to get their own way then, isn't it?

 

[Strawberry]

By British, I assume you mean Welsh, Scottish, English but not Northern Irish.

I don't think that the British public would be up in arms, but I think there would be a lot of raised eyebrows at the notion that while the main thrust of Brexit was "to get control back over immigration", it would be easier for EU citizens to be able to get to part of the UK&NI than it is for British citizens from the rest of the UK.

Beyond that, I guess it would depend on the extent to which EU laws had to apply in Northern Ireland in order to secure the freedom of movement and so on, but that could also cause eyebrows to be raised as Irish sovereignty was allowed to be applied by the back door.

I suppose it comes down to how up in arms would the British people as a whole get if Northern Ireland becomes part of Ireland.

And how much would they?

 

[Darat]

So the British government is afraid to do what's right for NI due to fear of violence from the Unionists?

If that's the case, then its obvious what nationalists in NI should do to get their own way then, isn't it?

No it isn't.

 

[Strawberry]

No it isn't.

Yes it is, and anyone who knows anything about Irish history would agree with me. Anytime the British have pandered to violence or threats of violence from the Unionists it has always invited the obvious response from nationalists.

 

[Darat]

Yes it is, and anyone who knows anything about Irish history would agree with me. Anytime the British have pandered to violence or threats of violence from the Unionists it has always invited the obvious response from nationalists.

That's moving the goal posts. I answered the actual question you asked.

 

[Strawberry]

That's moving the goal posts. I answered the actual question you asked.

Okay, well now I've clarified that it is indeed obvious to anyone who knows anything about Irish history.

 

[The Don]

And how much would they?

I expect a full range of opinions from those people who would literally blow things up to stop it, to those who would literally blow things up to promote it.

In 2008 less than 35% of those in the UK were in support of a united Ireland (significantly down from the 60% or so who supported the idea in the mid-90s).

 

[Strawberry]

I expect a full range of opinions from those people who would literally blow things up to stop it, to those who would literally blow things up to promote it.

In 2008 less than 35% of those in the UK were in support of a united Ireland (significantly down from the 60% or so who supported the idea in the mid-90s).

Are you sure about that opinion poll? I've never actually seen any opinion poll carried out across the entire UK on the subject of a united Ireland.

Anyway, those outside NI who would be prepared to blow anything up over it would be a tiny minority, I was really more interested in mainstream opinion. I always got the impression that NI leaving the UK would be much less of a problem for the average English/Welsh person than Scotland leaving.

 

[The Don]

Are you sure about that opinion poll? I've never actually seen any opinion poll carried out across the entire UK on the subject of a united Ireland.

It is a regular thing done as part of the British Social Attitudes Survey. AFAIK it's reasonably highly regarded.

Anyway, those outside NI who would be prepared to blow anything up over it would be a tiny minority, I was really more interested in mainstream opinion. I always got the impression that NI leaving the UK would be much less of a problem for the average English/Welsh person than Scotland leaving.

Where did you get this impression from ?

tbh it's not something that crops up in conversation often which means I tend to rely on opinion polls. If you've got this impression from talking to people it could be that you're talking to a skewed group and/or people are changing what they're saying because of your enthusiasm for a united Ireland.

 

[Craig B]

Its not unworkable to create internal checks between NI and the rest of the UK, its very workable indeed and far more workable than trying to police the land border between NI and the Republic.

Its really the most obvious and sensible solution to the border conundrum but given that the government is in hock to the DUP I doubt common sense will rule the day.

Common sense? Can you imagine the response of the Orange Order to this idea?

Catholics can travel to Belfast from the Republic without any border formalities, but
Protestants from Scotland coming to Belfast to participate in the celebrations on July 12 are required to pass border security and show passports.

NO wonder the DUP are asking for the impossible - hard Brexit but a soft Border - if the above is the only alternative