Brexit: Now What? Part III

[Strawberry]

AFAIK it's a wide-ranging survey which is carried out on a regular basis rather than a specific "attitudes to Irish reunification" survey. The way I read it, In some years questions relating to attitudes to Irish reunification were included.

Why not contact them directly if you have questions ?

That's a bit of a cop out, it was you who asserted that UK public opinion would be negative towards a united Ireland at least as much as towards an independent Scotland. As evidence you referred me to the British Social Attitudes survey, a large database of opinion polls on everything from immigration to dental health policy. Is there anything relevant in that database or not? If so, kindly link to it.

 

[Strawberry]

It's not unworkable for a resident of the UK to find it easier to travel to Ireland than to other parts of the UK? For there to be internal customs checks between two parts of the UK and none between a part of the UK and a foreign country?

It seems patently ridiculous on the face of it.

Its completely workable to have customs checks at sea and air ports, and very unworkable to have them across a sprawling land border which crosses peoples' private land, village streets, mountains and bodies of water. If its really patently ridiculous to have the border posts at the most workable points, then maybe its having six of Ireland's counties inside the UK that's patently ridiculous in the first place.

 

[The Don]

That's a bit of a cop out, it was you who asserted that UK public opinion would be negative towards a united Ireland at least as much as towards an independent Scotland. As evidence you referred me to the British Social Attitudes survey, a large database of opinion polls on everything from immigration to dental health policy. Is there anything relevant in that database or not? If so, kindly link to it.

I have no idea - but then again I'm loath to do your research for you.

That said, here's a link to wikipedia which will no doubt be unacceptable because it runs counter to your preconceptions:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland#In_Great_Britain

 

[The Don]

Its completely workable to have customs checks at sea and air ports, and very unworkable to have them across a sprawling land border which crosses peoples' private land, village streets, mountains and bodies of water. If its really patently ridiculous to have the border posts at the most workable points, then maybe its having six of Ireland's counties inside the UK that's patently ridiculous in the first place.

That's akin to saying that land-based borders are unworkable full stop.

Most countries have managed to make land-based borders work one way or another. There's a pretty long one between the United States and Canada which is orders of magnitude longer than the one between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

 

[Strawberry]

I have no idea - but then again I'm loath to do your research for you.

That said, here's a link to wikipedia which will no doubt be unacceptable because it runs counter to your preconceptions:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland#In_Great_Britain

Its perfectly acceptable but its only repeating what you said before - that a poll in 2008 found a majority against Irish unity. I wanted to know if there was anything more recent than nine years old, apparently there isn't so that's that.

I think I'm going to say the same as Information Analyst, that the general British public are ambivalent about NI remaining in the UK.

 

[Craig B]

How many more time does it need to be pointed out that the "UK" bit applies to GB plus UK, not GB minus Scotland?!

Yes, what I mean is simply this. The UK is a Union of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. GB is a Union of England (then included Wales) and Scotland. If Scotland departed, GB would be annihilated in anything resembling its present form; and in that case the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland would also be disrupted because one of its components (GB) had undergone dissolution or at the very least, gross mutation.

If, thereafter, the governments of England, Wales and N Ireland desired to form a new union, they could call it "The United Kingdom", or anything else that might take their fancy, but the original UK would be no more.

 

[Strawberry]

That's akin to saying that land-based borders are unworkable full stop.

Most countries have managed to make land-based borders work one way or another. There's a pretty long one between the United States and Canada which is orders of magnitude longer than the one between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

The length of the border isn't really the issue here. Its very existence is unwelcome in the first place to the majority of people who live in its vicinity on both sides, and to make it worse, they've both been in a single market and customs union for decades which has meant the economies integrating in a way that doesn't apply to Canada and the US.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

On the contrary, because there would still be the UK of B + NI. No different from moving from the UK of GB & I to the UK of GB & NI.

Only if this new entity 'B' exists and it's then a different UK. What would be left would The United Kingdom of England and Wales and Northern Ireland presumably.

 

[The Don]

I think I'm going to say the same as Information Analyst, that the general British public are ambivalent about NI remaining in the UK.

I'd have said the same about Scottish Independence years prior to the referendum but that seemed to stir up a hornets' nest. Until the British public are presented with the prospect, it's likely that many have not even considered their position.

I'd expect a significant hardening of opinion in favour of NI remaining in the UK in much the same way as I'd expect a hardening of opinion in favour of Wales, Cornwall, Greater London, Yorkshire, Shetland or any other part of the UK. I'd also expect that to reflect a purely reactionary standpoint rather than being based on objective assessment.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Its completely workable to have customs checks at sea and air ports, and very unworkable to have them across a sprawling land border which crosses peoples' private land, village streets, mountains and bodies of water. If its really patently ridiculous to have the border posts at the most workable points, then maybe its having six of Ireland's counties inside the UK that's patently ridiculous in the first place.

Quite possibly. But plenty of countries have land borders with other countries. It's impossible to keep Mexicans out of certain states in the US but you don't start insisting they need passports and customs checks to travel to New York.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Its perfectly acceptable but its only repeating what you said before - that a poll in 2008 found a majority against Irish unity. I wanted to know if there was anything more recent than nine years old, apparently there isn't so that's that.

I think I'm going to say the same as Information Analyst, that the general British public are ambivalent about NI remaining in the UK.

Even if that is correct there is certainly a percentage that would not have voted for Brexit had it been explained to them that a result of it would be a united Ireland and the UK losing Northern Ireland. Given the tiny margin of the leave win it could have been decisive in the overall decision.

 

[The Don]

The length of the border isn't really the issue here.

Then why did you make it one by referring to it as a sprawling one ?

Its very existence is unwelcome in the first place to the majority of people who live in its vicinity on both sides, and to make it worse, they've both been in a single market and customs union for decades which has meant the economies integrating in a way that doesn't apply to Canada and the US.

Borders are often unwelcome but may be nationally important. Support for an open border between Ireland and Northern Ireland is currently strong among members of the DUP. That support is likely to drop significantly if the only way that can happen is as part of a united Ireland. It's even likely to drop if the border between NI and the rest if the UK is treated as a national border.

 

[Strawberry]

I'd have said the same about Scottish Independence years prior to the referendum but that seemed to stir up a hornets' nest. Until the British public are presented with the prospect, it's likely that many have not even considered their position.

I'd expect a significant hardening of opinion in favour of NI remaining in the UK in much the same way as I'd expect a hardening of opinion in favour of Wales, Cornwall, Greater London, Yorkshire, Shetland or any other part of the UK. I'd also expect that to reflect a purely reactionary standpoint rather than being based on objective assessment.

I disagree, I don't think the average Brit views NI in quite the same way as they view Scotland, Wales, Cornwall, Greater London etc. And I've never heard anything from them which would lead me to believe your prediction is right either. I doubt very much whether a border poll in NI would prompt the leaders of Conservative, Labour and LibDem to decamp suddenly to Belfast and start promising the equivalent of the The Vow, for example. Norman Tebbit, Kate Hoey and Menzies Campbell would be about all they'd get.

 

[Strawberry]

Even if that is correct there is certainly a percentage that would not have voted for Brexit had it been explained to them that a result of it would be a united Ireland and the UK losing Northern Ireland. Given the tiny margin of the leave win it could have been decisive in the overall decision.

There might equally be a proportion of remainers who would have voted leave if they thought it meant a united Ireland, especially when you take into account that Irish citizens resident in the UK could vote.

 

[The Don]

I disagree, I don't think the average Brit views NI in quite the same way as they view Scotland, Wales, Cornwall, Greater London etc. And I've never heard anything from them which would lead me to believe your prediction is right either. I doubt very much whether a border poll in NI would prompt the leaders of Conservative, Labour and LibDem to decamp suddenly to Belfast and start promising the equivalent of the The Vow, for example. Norman Tebbit, Kate Hoey and Menzies Campbell would be about all they'd get.

Really ?

The time and effort that successive Prime Ministers put into the GFA, and the way that truly was a bipartisan effort (not to underplay the massive contributions from the leadership in Northern Ireland, Ireland and from international leaders) I think illustrates Westminster's investment in Northern Ireland.

Jeremy Corbyn wouldn't turn up, but then again he was a vocal supporter of the IRA during their "blowing up civilians" phase, but a Blairite/Brownite Labour leader would IMO leap on a plane. Whoever was Prime Minister would also be on the plane, no Tory leader wants to be the PM who oversaw the further break up of the UK.

Regarding The Vow, I'm not sufficiently conversant with the powers devolved to the various parliaments to know whether NI has devolved powers less than, or greater than those that Scotland had prior to The Vow - or indeed whether it already has powers equivalent to those promised.

 

[Strawberry]

Really ?

The time and effort that successive Prime Ministers put into the GFA, and the way that truly was a bipartisan effort (not to underplay the massive contributions from the leadership in Northern Ireland, Ireland and from international leaders) I think illustrates Westminster's investment in Northern Ireland.

Jeremy Corbyn wouldn't turn up, but then again he was a vocal supporter of the IRA during their "blowing up civilians" phase, but a Blairite/Brownite Labour leader would IMO leap on a plane. Whoever was Prime Minister would also be on the plane, no Tory leader wants to be the PM who oversaw the further break up of the UK.

Regarding The Vow, I'm not sufficiently conversant with the powers devolved to the various parliaments to know whether NI has devolved powers less than, or greater than those that Scotland had prior to The Vow - or indeed whether it already has powers equivalent to those promised.

The Blairite/Brown leadership's commitment to the peace process no more denotes support for NI remaining in the UK than Albert Reynolds or John Hume's commitment does. Not to mention Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness, I hope you don't think their commitment to steering the Republican movement away from violence means they suddenly became massive supporters of Unionism.

 

[Strawberry]

Then why did you make it one by referring to it as a sprawling one ?



Borders are often unwelcome but may be nationally important. Support for an open border between Ireland and Northern Ireland is currently strong among members of the DUP. That support is likely to drop significantly if the only way that can happen is as part of a united Ireland. It's even likely to drop if the border between NI and the rest if the UK is treated as a national border.

The DUP can be told that "borders are often unwelcome but may be nationally important."

 

[3point14]

Theresa May - so far out of her depth, she couldn't find the bottom with a very long stick.



https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/07/theresa-may-european-parliament-brussels-eu

 

[The Don]

The Blairite/Brown leadership's commitment to the peace process no more denotes support for NI remaining in the UK than Albert Reynolds or John Hume's commitment does. Not to mention Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness, I hope you don't think their commitment to steering the Republican movement away from violence means they suddenly became massive supporters of Unionism.

It shows a willingness to make a significant political investment in Northern Ireland. I know that the current leader of the Labour party was an enthusiastic supporter of the IRA and their bombing campaign, I presume that he is similarly supportive of Irish reunification. OTOH AFAIK previous Labour leaders have advocated NI continuing to be part of the UK.

Whether that means they are massive supporters of Unionism or merely supporters of the union (and I guess for some Irish republicans those two things are the same, anyone who wants NI to remain part of the UK is completely aligned with loyalist paramiltaries) is up for debate.

 

[Strawberry]

It shows a willingness to make a significant political investment in Northern Ireland. I know that the current leader of the Labour party was an enthusiastic supporter of the IRA and their bombing campaign, I presume that he is similarly supportive of Irish reunification. OTOH AFAIK previous Labour leaders have advocated NI continuing to be part of the UK.

Whether that means they are massive supporters of Unionism or merely supporters of the union (and I guess for some Irish republicans those two things are the same, anyone who wants NI to remain part of the UK is completely aligned with loyalist paramiltaries) is up for debate.

It shows a willingness to invest time and energy in ending the Troubles, it tells us nothing about the subject at hand which is the likelihood of British politicians throwing their weight behind the Unionist cause in the event of a border poll.

It certainly tells us nothing about how the British government would react to the EU's suggestion of a different deal for NI than for the rest of the UK if they weren't beholden to the DUP. Personally I think a Labour government - even a Blairite led one - would have no problem with it.