Brexit: Now What? Part III

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As I have no access to the full article I couldn't read all its content but it seems this could be a big blow from Donald Trump to some of the hopes of the Brexiters: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/trump-puts-eu-ahead-of-britain-in-trade-queue-l7t8zwn7k

This gem is funny by any means:

President Trump has softened his opposition to negotiating with the bloc as a whole after attempts by his officials to open talks with individual European nations were rebuffed.

What did they expect ?
 
I think the calculation was "we can impose our condition (one sided advantageous to the US) if we negotiate with small countries, but it would not be that easy with a big block, let us try speaking directly to the countries".

Meanwhile May is thinking this is a wonderful wheeze for the UK... with a pretty hard timeframe.

Between her and Corbyn, we've got a right mess. I really don't know who to vote for in my constituency.

My MP was a leave campaigner.
The lib dems are nowhere
The labour candidate is probably going to be OK but...
 
“The theory espoused by some, that May is calling a general election in order to secure a better deal with the EU, is nonsensical. We can only conclude that many British politicians and the media still don’t fathom how Article 50 will work.” said Guy Verhofstadt who will lead the Brexit negotiations on behalf of the EU Parliament: http://www.politico.eu/article/verhofstadt-election-win-wont-help-may-in-brexit-talks/

A former (UK) judge of the European Court of Justice said that "he was “astonished” at the “invincible ignorance” of Prime Minister Theresa May and Brexiteers*who say they will secure British sovereignty from the EU courts": http://www.politico.eu/article/former-eu-judge-slams-brexiteers-for-invincible-ignorance/
 
Can't we just go down the Belgian route and fail to have a functioning government for a few years?

I mean in theory as well as in practice
 
I'm ninjaing this from the thread about the mental health from Donald Trump, because it is much more relevant here than there.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/trump-puts-eu-ahead-of-britain-in-trade-queue-l7t8zwn7k

Britain has been pushed behind the European Union in the queue to strike a free-trade deal with the United States, officials in Washington have said.

http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=11809666&postcount=4

McHrozni

You really can't put any store in anything coming out of Washington. The most important thing is the last thing the President saw on TV or someone told him.
 
Apparently Labour now have a cunning plan for Brexit:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39698465

Labour says it would scrap Theresa May's Brexit plans and unilaterally guarantee the rights of EU residents before talks start, if they win power.

While accepting the UK was leaving, shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer said Labour would press for a different deal prioritising jobs and work rights.

It would also seek an early deal on transitional arrangements to smooth the way for the UK's departure in 2019.

Baldrick would be proud :rolleyes:

Fortunately the chances of Jeremy Corbyn's bunch of incompetents ever stumbling into power are negligible - more unfortunately, this means that the Tories will likely have a free hand.
 
Apparently Labour now have a cunning plan for Brexit:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39698465

Baldrick would be proud :rolleyes:

Fortunately the chances of Jeremy Corbyn's bunch of incompetents ever stumbling into power are negligible - more unfortunately, this means that the Tories will likely have a free hand.

I'm actually not quite sure that would be a bad idea. UK has little soft power in Europe and giving up on such a bargaining chip would win it soft power. Using EU expats in UK as leverage would be self-defating anyway, the largest group there are the Poles, whereas the strongest powers in Europe and France and Germany. Germany also happens to be in need of workforce for their factories. Poles can work there just as well as the Syrians can, and are by now more acceptable to the natives than Syrians will be for a while.

The consequence of this is that expats don't give UK a leverage it can use to great effect, but soft power from granting them rights unilaterally grants UK something it doesn't have and does need. I'm sure EU would respond in kind (UK pensioners are a welcome source of extra money) and we could immediately move to more pressing matters, such as transitional agreement and post-Brexit workings.

McHrozni
 
I'm actually not quite sure that would be a bad idea. UK has little soft power in Europe and giving up on such a bargaining chip would win it soft power. Using EU expats in UK as leverage would be self-defating anyway, the largest group there are the Poles, whereas the strongest powers in Europe and France and Germany. Germany also happens to be in need of workforce for their factories. Poles can work there just as well as the Syrians can, and are by now more acceptable to the natives than Syrians will be for a while.

The consequence of this is that expats don't give UK a leverage it can use to great effect, but soft power from granting them rights unilaterally grants UK something it doesn't have and does need. I'm sure EU would respond in kind (UK pensioners are a welcome source of extra money) and we could immediately move to more pressing matters, such as transitional agreement and post-Brexit workings.

McHrozni

You're quite right, Labour's proposed approach is IMO a lot less bad than the Hard Brexit the Tories seem determined to have.

My issue with Labour is their fumbling attempts at squaring their electoral circle:

  • The majority of seats they're defending voted "Leave" BUT
  • The vast majority of Labour supporters voted "Remain"

If it were me, I'd have stuck to my "Remain" guns and trusted that people would still vote Labour for a host of other reasons but this lukewarm "Leave" approach strikes me as the worst approach for them electorally. It's not anti-immigrant enough to tempt the Tories and UKIPpers to vote Labour but it risks alienating parts of their core support. I for one will be voting something other than Labour in the general election for the second time in my life.
 
You're quite right, Labour's proposed approach is IMO a lot less bad than the Hard Brexit the Tories seem determined to have.

My issue with Labour is their fumbling attempts at squaring their electoral circle:

  • The majority of seats they're defending voted "Leave" BUT
  • The vast majority of Labour supporters voted "Remain"

If it were me, I'd have stuck to my "Remain" guns and trusted that people would still vote Labour for a host of other reasons but this lukewarm "Leave" approach strikes me as the worst approach for them electorally. It's not anti-immigrant enough to tempt the Tories and UKIPpers to vote Labour but it risks alienating parts of their core support. I for one will be voting something other than Labour in the general election for the second time in my life.

Oh okay, you mean their plan to win elections is worthy of Blackadder.

As an old fan of the series I'd say Blackadder would be right to feel deeply insulted. He's a genius compared to this idiocy.

McHrozni
 
Bad news for The Don (and May) - the EU have confirmed they will exclude Financial Services from any Brexit deal:
https://euobserver.com/uk-referendum/137659

"The EU intends to exclude the financial services sector from a trade deal with the UK after Brexit, according to the latest tweaks in the EU's draft negotiating guidelines.

EU citizens must also be granted permanent residency in the UK after 5 years of living there.


The new text spells out that any free trade deal that would allow the City of London, Europe’s leading financial centre, continued access to EU markets would require that Britain continues to respect the EU's regulatory and supervisory standards."

Further here:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-banks-idUKKBN14W008
 
Bad news for The Don (and May) - the EU have confirmed they will exclude Financial Services from any Brexit deal:
https://euobserver.com/uk-referendum/137659

"The EU intends to exclude the financial services sector from a trade deal with the UK after Brexit, according to the latest tweaks in the EU's draft negotiating guidelines.

EU citizens must also be granted permanent residency in the UK after 5 years of living there.


The new text spells out that any free trade deal that would allow the City of London, Europe’s leading financial centre, continued access to EU markets would require that Britain continues to respect the EU's regulatory and supervisory standards."

Further here:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-banks-idUKKBN14W008

No shock there then :(
 
Bad news for The Don (and May) - the EU have confirmed they will exclude Financial Services from any Brexit deal:
https://euobserver.com/uk-referendum/137659

"The EU intends to exclude the financial services sector from a trade deal with the UK after Brexit, according to the latest tweaks in the EU's draft negotiating guidelines.

EU citizens must also be granted permanent residency in the UK after 5 years of living there.


The new text spells out that any free trade deal that would allow the City of London, Europe’s leading financial centre, continued access to EU markets would require that Britain continues to respect the EU's regulatory and supervisory standards."

Further here:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-banks-idUKKBN14W008

That's what happens when amateurs meet professionals. EU announced this early enough to ensure there are no shocks and financial firms have ample time to move to the continent with no disruption to their business.

McHrozni
 
More cold water from Angela Merkel

German Chancellor Angela Merkel says some British people have "illusions" about discussing the UK's future ties with the EU at the same time as nailing down the UK's Brexit terms.

The future relationship can only be discussed once the exit issues - such as UK payments to the EU budget - are resolved, she told German MPs.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39730326
 
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