Brexit: Now What? Part III

[The Don]

In other words, he's a real jerk and not even doing it out of greed, but malice.

McHrozni

That's almost exactly not what I wrote.

IMO he is doing it, at least in part, because he thinks he can make a great deal of money.

The point of that post was that you seem to think that he is taking a significant financial risk both in terms of the money he has spent to date and that Brexit may affect him negatively financially. I think that the sum he has invested to date is a trivial sum for him, being a small proportion of his net worth and readily replaceable from his income and that he has very little, if any, risk of downside for him personally from Brexit.

My assessment is that he is motivated by both greed and because he likely wants to be seen as the catalyst for fundamental change to the UK. Malice doesn't come into it. IMO he doesn't want to hurt people, instead I think he either thinks it's for the better and/or he simply doesn't care that much about other people (not an unusual trait in Chief Executives who have a higher than usual proportion of sociopaths in their ranks).

 

[McHrozni]

That's almost exactly not what I wrote.

IMO he is doing it, at least in part, because he thinks he can make a great deal of money.

While this is not impossible, it doesn't address the rest about him - why is he now supporting Calexit, a split of California in two states?

To ensure a more pro-Republican House, Senate and Electoral college would be the implication, but the precendens this would create could also see splits in other states, such as Texas. It could be his myopia at work, but I think he just gets his kicks from sawing chaos and damaging countries left and right.

McHrozni

 

[McHrozni]

I realize this is not news, but it's still worthy to note Brexiteers are unwilling to face the hard reality of the situation they brought upon the country.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...own-negative-brexit-findings-by-own-committee

I know I keep repeating myself, but this report should be published this time last year for Brexit to have any semblance of being a democratic choice.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

While this is not impossible, it doesn't address the rest about him - why is he now supporting Calexit, a split of California in two states?

To ensure a more pro-Republican House, Senate and Electoral college would be the implication, but the precendens this would create could also see splits in other states, such as Texas. It could be his myopia at work, but I think he just gets his kicks from sawing chaos and damaging countries left and right.

McHrozni

You may be right but my reading of it was that he wanted a right-wing utopia in which right-wing businessmen like himself would be free to do as he pleased largely free of regulation or personal and corporate taxation. I think he is selfishly pursuing his own narrow self-interest. Any collateral damage to society as a whole simply doesn't come into his calculations IMO.

 

[McHrozni]

You may be right but my reading of it was that he wanted a right-wing utopia in which right-wing businessmen like himself would be free to do as he pleased largely free of regulation or personal and corporate taxation. I think he is selfishly pursuing his own narrow self-interest. Any collateral damage to society as a whole simply doesn't come into his calculations IMO.

I'm starting to think we're both right. He does these things because they entertain him and because he thinks he can earn money from them in the end.

The money aspect alone is too small to be of much use to him and the entertainment value of the events is a rather poor decision from someone who apparently knows what decisions in life to make at least to some degree, he has a fortune after all.

Both combined look quite compelling though

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

I realize this is not news, but it's still worthy to note Brexiteers are unwilling to face the hard reality of the situation they brought upon the country.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...own-negative-brexit-findings-by-own-committee

I know I keep repeating myself, but this report should be published this time last year for Brexit to have any semblance of being a democratic choice.

McHrozni

The impact of Brexit was widely publicised at the time but the Leave campaign took the same approach to the Brexiteers, dubbed it "Project Fear" and encouraged people to ignore it because it's unpatriotic to think that the UK is anything other than brilliant and in any case "experts" (at least the anti-Brexit ones) can be safely ignored

The people who voted Leave (and in my experience many of the "soft" Remainers) are now irrationally optimistic about the UK's future prospects despite not being able to identify areas in which leaving the EU will actually benefit the UK in general or the UK economy specifically.

It's an unfortunate feature of the UK character that the worse the consequences of our (sometimes self-inflicted) problems seem to be, the more firmly wedded we seem to be to the course of action that brought them about. Whilst that was noble 75 years ago when we were under attack from the Luftwaffe, IMO it's stupid when we seem to have embarked upon a course of action designed to cut off our nose to spite our face and when the idiots leading us seem to want to do it without anaesthetic and with a dirty, rusty blade

 

[The Don]

I'm starting to think we're both right. He does these things because they entertain him and because he thinks he can earn money from them in the end.

The money aspect alone is too small to be of much use to him and the entertainment value of the events is a rather poor decision from someone who apparently knows what decisions in life to make at least to some degree, he has a fortune after all.

Both combined look quite compelling though

McHrozni

Do not underestimate the lengths that some multi-millionaires will go to to get a single extra dollar. You're right that he almost certainly doesn't need the money but as someone much wiser than I am pointed out, at a certain stage money is just a way of keeping score.

 

[McHrozni]

Do not underestimate the lengths that some multi-millionaires will go to to get a single extra dollar. You're right that he almost certainly doesn't need the money but as someone much wiser than I am pointed out, at a certain stage money is just a way of keeping score.

My point is there are safer ways to earn just as much money.

McHrozni

 

[McHrozni]

The impact of Brexit was widely publicised at the time but the Leave campaign took the same approach to the Brexiteers, dubbed it "Project Fear" and encouraged people to ignore it because it's unpatriotic to think that the UK is anything other than brilliant and in any case "experts" (at least the anti-Brexit ones) can be safely ignored

It was publicized, yes, by the campaign, but not by the government.

I'm saying that the government who was organizing the referendum should also have taken the time to analyze and publish what the Yes vote meant.

The people who voted Leave (and in my experience many of the "soft" Remainers) are now irrationally optimistic about the UK's future prospects despite not being able to identify areas in which leaving the EU will actually benefit the UK in general or the UK economy specifically.

It's an unfortunate feature of the UK character that the worse the consequences of our (sometimes self-inflicted) problems seem to be, the more firmly wedded we seem to be to the course of action that brought them about. Whilst that was noble 75 years ago when we were under attack from the Luftwaffe, IMO it's stupid when we seem to have embarked upon a course of action designed to cut off our nose to spite our face and when the idiots leading us seem to want to do it without anaesthetic and with a dirty, rusty blade

Brits are weird, but I think your analogy is flawed. Britain learned from its mistakes in Austria and Czechoslovakia and didn't want to repeat them, the Battle of Britain was a result of that.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

It was publicized, yes, by the campaign, but not by the government.

I'm saying that the government who was organizing the referendum should also have taken the time to analyze and publish what the Yes vote meant.

There was no Yes vote option. The alternatives were Leave and Remain.

Brits are weird, but I think your analogy is flawed. Britain learned from its mistakes in Austria and Czechoslovakia and didn't want to repeat them, the Battle of Britain was a result of that.

McHrozni

I was thinking about the Blitz rather than the Battle of Britain. The worse things got, the more determined the British population became. Unfortunately it seems to me that worse the likely implications of Brexit seem, the more determined people seem to be to pursue this, to me insane, course of action.

 

[McHrozni]

There was no Yes vote option. The alternatives were Leave and Remain.

By Yes I meant Leave

I was thinking about the Blitz rather than the Battle of Britain. The worse things got, the more determined the British population became. Unfortunately it seems to me that worse the likely implications of Brexit seem, the more determined people seem to be to pursue this, to me insane, course of action.

Blitz wasn't about the implications though, it was about the events that already happened. Surrendering meant UK would not get a chance of revenge. Growing determination isn't unusual in such a scenario.

Brexit is about UK damaging itself, there is no prospect of revenge and the damage is all in the future.

I'm not sure if the analogy works as intended. It's true enough that the blind determination to see Brexit true is taking over in UK, which is why I think you guys are rather weird Forgive me, but I think you'll agree that it holds true on average.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

Blitz wasn't about the implications though, it was about the events that already happened. Surrendering meant UK would not get a chance of revenge. Growing determination isn't unusual in such a scenario.

Brexit is about UK damaging itself, there is no prospect of revenge and the damage is all in the future.

I'm not sure if the analogy works as intended. It's true enough that the blind determination to see Brexit true is taking over in UK, which is why I think you guys are rather weird Forgive me, but I think you'll agree that it holds true on average.

McHrozni

You might think that, and I agree, but as far as a majority of the UK population will be concerned, once the government and the right-wing press have worked on them for a couple of years, any damage resulting from Brexit will be caused by those horrible people in the EU punishing the UK for having the temerity to break free.

If Brexit turned our to be a mild inconvenience but generally fine, I'm convinced that sentiment will turn against it but if it's truly terrible then we'll buckle down and see it through to the bitter, bitter end

....and yes, the British are weird but possibly not unique in this regard.

 

[P.J. Denyer]

To be fair, even those things are not as insane as wanting:

4 farthings to the penny twelve pennies to the shilling, two shillings to the florin, 2-shillings and sixpence to the half crown and twenty shillings to the pound, and 21 shillings in a guinea


I've probably missed a few conversion factors out due to being just younger than decimilisation

I always remember the 'Call of Cthulhu" source book for 1920's Britain giving a full description of our currency followed by "Many Britons opposed decimilisation as they felt the new system was too complicated".

 

[McHrozni]

You might think that, and I agree, but as far as a majority of the UK population will be concerned, once the government and the right-wing press have worked on them for a couple of years, any damage resulting from Brexit will be caused by those horrible people in the EU punishing the UK for having the temerity to break free.

If Brexit turned our to be a mild inconvenience but generally fine, I'm convinced that sentiment will turn against it but if it's truly terrible then we'll buckle down and see it through to the bitter, bitter end

....and yes, the British are weird but possibly not unique in this regard.

Cognitive dissonance is strong within you.

I mean the collective you, obviously.

McHrozni

 

[Amazer]

I have to say that I'm a little disappointed that there's no Brexiteers coming here anymore...

 

[The Don]

I have to say that I'm a little disappointed that there's no Brexiteers coming here anymore...

IMO it's not surprising - would you turn out solo for a regular savaging ?

If there was a nucleus of pro-Brexit posters who could provide a little support for each other then that'd be different but being openly pro-Brexit would be quite a lonely existence here.

It's also not like there is a monolithic pro-Brexit opinion. I suspect that MikeG's opinions of and aspirations for Brexit are probably very different than ceptimus' and I'm sure that there are Corbynites with yet another view.

 

[The Don]

Whisperings of transitional arrangements where free movement is preserved for a few years. Well that's going to make everyone unhappy

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39498647

 

[McHrozni]

Whisperings of transitional arrangements where free movement is preserved for a few years. Well that's going to make everyone unhappy

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39498647

That's one interpretation. Another is that UK will discover free movement of people from EU is essential for its economy and will opt to keep it to avoid damaging itself. At that point the main reason for staying out of the EEA is eliminated - and so is a major reason for Brexit in the first place.

Sure, it will be called a "transitional arrangement" for a while, but as time passes the public perception may shift, EU immigration may drop for unrelated reasons, and UK might stay in EEA in the end.

McHrozni

 

[Aepervius]

IMO it's not surprising - would you turn out solo for a regular savaging ?

Depends. Is she good looking and do I get a safe word ?

 

[The Don]

That's one interpretation. Another is that UK will discover free movement of people from EU is essential for its economy and will opt to keep it to avoid damaging itself. At that point the main reason for staying out of the EEA is eliminated - and so is a major reason for Brexit in the first place.

Sure, it will be called a "transitional arrangement" for a while, but as time passes the public perception may shift, EU immigration may drop for unrelated reasons, and UK might stay in EEA in the end.

McHrozni

In which case, pretty much everyone will be unhappy.

The Leavers will be unhappy because we still have free movement and the Remainers will be unhappy because we're no longer in the EU (it'll be a "less worse" out of the EU situation).

There may be a small subset of each group who will be more happy with the out of the EU but in the EEA than they would have been with still being in the EU or "having control of our borders" but I think it's a pretty small number.