Brexit: Now What? Part III

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The Don said:
In which case, pretty much everyone will be unhappy.

The Leavers will be unhappy because we still have free movement and the Remainers will be unhappy because we're no longer in the EU (it'll be a "less worse" out of the EU situation).

There may be a small subset of each group who will be more happy with the out of the EU but in the EEA than they would have been with still being in the EU or "having control of our borders" but I think it's a pretty small number.
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Oh yes, it's an inherently unstable situation alright. Both sides will engage in a tug of war, but this time Bremainers won't be the Project Fear, Brexiteers will be. EU immigration may reduce naturally anyway due to the combination of the drop in the Pound, uplift of Eurozone economy, rise of xenophobia in UK and fear of not being able to stay in UK permanently. This takes the impetus out of 'taking control of borders' soundbite.

If Labour gets its feces together in the meantime, HDQs their current 'leader' and if LibDems manage to make a few steps up in the next thirty months, it is quite possible it won't be Theresa May who will be calling the shots on what kind of a deal will UK have with EU after the transitional period anymore.

It's a chance to remain in EEA and even rejoin the EU in a not too distant future. A Bremainer like you should welcome it :)

McHrozni
 
Ford are now saying that they may not continue manufacturing in the UK if there's no free trade deal with the EU (unless they are angling for a Nissan deal funded from the "£350m a week").

When's the good news going to start ? :(
 
McHrozni said:
That's one interpretation. Another is that UK will discover free movement of people from EU is essential for its economy and will opt to keep it to avoid damaging itself. At that point the main reason for staying out of the EEA is eliminated - and so is a major reason for Brexit in the first place.

Sure, it will be called a "transitional arrangement" for a while, but as time passes the public perception may shift, EU immigration may drop for unrelated reasons, and UK might stay in EEA in the end.

McHrozni
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Theresa May has said the term "transitional arrangement" is not right, and that "implementation period " is the correct one. She is so fearfulf of a resurgent UKIP, we are constantly reminded of her paranoia in this way.
 
The Don said:
Ford are now saying that they may not continue manufacturing in the UK if there's no free trade deal with the EU (unless they are angling for a Nissan deal funded from the "£350m a week").

When's the good news going to start ? :(
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Does this count?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...-india-worth-extra-2-billion-british-economy/

UK might be able to increase exports to India for up to 2 billion pounds. This is about as much as UK currently exports to Austria.

London will not suffer as badly as it was feared either.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-39544130

The net result is still an overwhelming negative though.

McHrozni
 
Nessie said:
Reality bites. Brexiters get pissed off that EU agencies which are based in the UK will be leaving. I did not know that the European Banking Authority and the European Medical Agency were based in the UK. It is perfectly reasonable they are transferring business to EU member states.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ent...grid7|main5|dl1|sec1_lnk3&pLid=-1216139749_uk
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I would say that no, reality hasn't bitten yet. The comments shown in the article demonstrate this fact to the fullest.

A Brexit department spokesman said: “No decisions have been taken about the location of the European Banking Authority or the European Medicines Agency — these will be subject to the exit negotiations.”

Brexit department was convinced giving up control over those agencies was going to be a concession by the UK which it could use as leverage against the EU. How dumb can they still get anyway?

McHrozni
 
McHrozni said:
I would say that no, reality hasn't bitten yet. The comments shown in the article demonstrate this fact to the fullest....

McHrozni
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Wow, yes. The comments are pure "us vs them" with no reasoning. Depressing. It seems humankind is reborn in the wild each generation, and it's anyone's guess which historical stones will be tripped over anew, if not picked up and thrown. Progress, schmogress.
 
erwinl said:
And now there will be early elections?
WTF?

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39629603
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Theresa May can't work Brexit with a majority that slim, she needs something like 2/3 majority to ensure order in her ranks.

Do you remember when I was saying fighting Brexit law was a battle Labour couldn't lose and the Tories could only choose what kind of victory they would hand over?

Well, that. If Labour was the Bremain party right now, the early election would be off the table, because of all the scandals that came out since the referendum. Since they're as Brexiteer as the Tories that's not going to happen and Theresa May will be able to steer on.

Best choice for Labour right now would be to HDQ the Traitor, elect a new leader by May, and steer a hard Bremain course.

McHrozni
 
erwinl said:
And now there will be early elections?
WTF?

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39629603
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Yes, ridiculous. And Corbyn, the fool, and Farron, have already said they support this move.

That also means that the coming two months, there can be no negotiations, as the EU essentially has to deal with a caretaker government. You don't know what the government on 10 June will look like. That's bad faith on the part of the UK government.

Ever more reason for the 27 EU members to take a hard-line approach on the negotiations and squeeze the British lemon until the pips squeak. :rolleyes:
 
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