Brexit: Now What? Part III

[McHrozni]

I was an early bird, the Independent updated the page since I posted the link. It's a true gem that reads like an Onion piece, except that it's for real.

This part is especially funny:

However, Mr Davis protested that the committee had not “asked me about the upsides” – which included being able to “relax things” for the 60 per cent of trade with countries outside the EU.

Somebody should tell him the right time to have concrete proposals - which should include the ability to name benefiting exports and their destinations - was a year ago. Vague statements about "60% of non-EU trade" belonged in the rubbish bin for about as long.

In light of these facts I wish to resurface my hypothesis that Theresa May is either scuttling Brexit by making it unpalpatable to anyone with at least half a brain, or else she was put in the position of PM by more intelligent people to accomplish that goal.

McHrozni

 

[McHrozni]

I expect he also wants a pony.

Do you know what Europeans do to ponies?

McHrozni

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I was an early bird, the Independent updated the page since I posted the link. It's a true gem that reads like an Onion piece, except that it's for real.

This part is especially funny:

However, Mr Davis protested that the committee had not “asked me about the upsides” – which included being able to “relax things” for the 60 per cent of trade with countries outside the EU.

Somebody should tell him the right time to have concrete proposals - which should include the ability to name benefiting exports and their destinations - was a year ago. Vague statements about "60% of non-EU trade" belonged in the rubbish bin for about as long.

In light of these facts, I wish to resurface my hypothesis that Theresa May is either scuttling Brexit by making it unpalpatable to anyone with at least half a brain, or else she was put in the position of PM by more intelligent people to accomplish that goal.

McHrozni

Some of these statements do read a bit like a cry for help. I'm starting to think the Tories are using this as an experiment to find out just how stupid the electorate really are by seeing at what point of ridiculousness something would snap.

Either that or Theresa May is a Chinese cyborg sent in to ease the way for them buying England for the cost of a family hatchback in 2032

 

[The Don]

Well, talking to my bandmate friends, they are genuinely optimistic that the UK will get a good deal from EU. I assume that May, Davis, Fox and Johnson are similarly optimistic.

Sadly, I genuinely think that they believe that they are doing a good job

 

[McHrozni]

Some of these statements do read a bit like a cry for help. I'm starting to think the Tories are using this as an experiment to find out just how stupid the electorate really are by seeing at what point of ridiculousness something would snap.

Yeah, almost.

Things are consistent with two scenarios:

1. Theresa May and her cabinet of clowns are working on a plan to reduce support for Brexit by adopting a nonsensical idiocratic stance. They banked on either the courts stopping the process, or the parliament voting against it, on Labour presenting a credible opponent or a combination of these or other factors. A nation divided like this is unable to pass through the massive constitutional upheaval of Brexit, so the project collapses under it's own weight.
That was the plan, but Labour didn't cooperate, courts didn't stop it, and Brits turned out even bigger suckers for soundbites they were thought to be, and the project is now both doomed to failure and inevitable.

2. Tory party in general and Theresa May in particular belong in an institution.

I understand many people here feel the option 2 is correct. This is possible, but remember, these people do know how to read and write, some of them also have world-class education. It is difficult for them to be both intelligent enough to finish Oxbridge with honors and unable to see that if you're unable to prepare anything with substance after 8 months of intense preparations, the 2 years of talks aren't likely to be a blast either.

There is also option 3, there are calculations and preparations, but they're keeping them secret for use in talks. This is broadly similar in the sense of how likely it is to option 4, which includes shape-shifting reptiles.

McHrozni

 

[McHrozni]

Well, talking to my bandmate friends, they are genuinely optimistic that the UK will get a good deal from EU. I assume that May, Davis, Fox and Johnson are similarly optimistic.

Sadly, I genuinely think that they believe that they are doing a good job

Hm. Is there any evidence they're doing a job to begin with? We know about as much as we did before the referendum, when we knew there was no plan.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

I disagree, I'm 99.9% confident that we'll press on with Brexit regardless of the damage to the UK economy because we need to recognise "teh will of teh peepul!".

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Hm. Is there any evidence they're doing a job to begin with? We know about as much as we did before the referendum, when we knew there was no plan.

McHrozni

Well they seem to be making progress on their side. I reckon in another 6-12 months they will have caught up with where the rest of us were a year or two ago.

I mean they've already slowly realised that you can't have membership of the free market without free movement of people, they now seem to be realising that UK trade is a relatively small % of exports for many EU countries and they may well decide to play hardball on the Tory unicorns and chocolate cake demand list.

Also note that Article 50 has still not been triggered.

 

[McHrozni]

I disagree, I'm 99.9% confident that we'll press on with Brexit regardless of the damage to the UK economy because we need to recognise "teh will of teh peepul!".

What do you disagree with?

I said it is inevitable, didn't it?

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

Hm. Is there any evidence they're doing a job to begin with? We know about as much as we did before the referendum, when we knew there was no plan.

McHrozni

Yes they're doing a job where the "job" is Brexit at all costs. From their perspective they have been tasked by the electorate with taking the UK out of the EU. If the price of doing that is breaking the UK (both politically and economically) then that's a shame but so be it

In any case, all problems will be blamed on the EU (for not agreeing to all our demands), the rest of the world (for failing to give us sweet trade deals), Scotland (for deserting the ship) and so on......

 

[McHrozni]

Well they seem to be making progress on their side. I reckon in another 6-12 months they will have caught up with where the rest of us were a year or two ago.

I mean they've already slowly realised that you can't have membership of the free market without free movement of people, they now seem to be realising that UK trade is a relatively small % of exports for many EU countries and they may well decide to play hardball on the Tory unicorns and chocolate cake demand list.

Also note that Article 50 has still not been triggered.

This assumes option 2 is correct, which is possible, but I find it somewhat unconvincing. If this is indeed true then in about a year they'll probably realize that it's not a good idea to insult people you need goodwill from.

McHrozni

 

[McHrozni]

Yes they're doing a job where the "job" is Brexit at all costs. From their perspective they have been tasked by the electorate with taking the UK out of the EU. If the price of doing that is breaking the UK (both politically and economically) then that's a shame but so be it

Their job is also to make the most out of Brexit. Is there any evidence they did anything on that front, or does their duties in regard to Brexit end with "leaving the EU" part?

In any case, all problems will be blamed on the EU (for not agreeing to all our demands), the rest of the world (for failing to give us sweet trade deals), Scotland (for deserting the ship) and so on......

I'm sure they will. Are Brits really such suckers as to believe it?

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

What do you disagree with?

I said it is inevitable, didn't it?

McHrozni

Cross posted, sorry

I was referring to this assessment and of course in my haste I misread it but even so I don't think there was ever a chance that this is a failed attempt to undermine from within, astonishing as this may seem, this really was their best attempt to make a success out of Brexit.

Yeah, almost.

Things are consistent with two scenarios:

1. Theresa May and her cabinet of clowns are working on a plan to reduce support for Brexit by adopting a nonsensical idiocratic stance. They banked on either the courts stopping the process, or the parliament voting against it, on Labour presenting a credible opponent or a combination of these or other factors. A nation divided like this is unable to pass through the massive constitutional upheaval of Brexit, so the project collapses under it's own weight.
That was the plan, but Labour didn't cooperate, courts didn't stop it, and Brits turned out even bigger suckers for soundbites they were thought to be, and the project is now both doomed to failure and inevitable.

2. Tory party in general and Theresa May in particular belong in an institution.

I understand many people here feel the option 2 is correct. This is possible, but remember, these people do know how to read and write, some of them also have world-class education. It is difficult for them to be both intelligent enough to finish Oxbridge with honors and unable to see that if you're unable to prepare anything with substance after 8 months of intense preparations, the 2 years of talks aren't likely to be a blast either.

There is also option 3, there are calculations and preparations, but they're keeping them secret for use in talks. This is broadly similar in the sense of how likely it is to option 4, which includes shape-shifting reptiles.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

Their job is also to make the most out of Brexit. Is there any evidence they did anything on that front, or does their duties in regard to Brexit end with "leaving the EU" part?

IMO out-out-out is the single most important thing so that's leaving the EU, having the ability to shut our borders and no longer having the tempering effects of EU protections for human rights, workers and the environment . If that can be achieved with minimal damage to our economic prospects then so much the better but the most important thing is to achieve the primary objective at all costs.

I'm sure they will. Are Brits really such suckers as to believe it?

McHrozni

Enough are, after all the anti-EU nonsense that's been doing the rounds for decades has had a ready audience.

 

[McHrozni]

I was referring to this assessment and of course in my haste I misread it but even so I don't think there was ever a chance that this is a failed attempt to undermine from within, astonishing as this may seem, this really was their best attempt to make a success out of Brexit.

Well, all I can say is IF one were to sabotage it from within, what we see is the most optimal scenario. Theresa May and her Brexiteers did everything we could imagine wrong and then got together and invented new things they could do wrong, and did them. If you wanted to bleed the movement dry of any sense, logic and most importantly experts who would genuinely be able to pull it off, this is how you do it.

These are educated people. I find it hard to believe this farce is their genuine best effort. I still find it more likely, because the alternative is a strange conspiracy theory which makes Brexiteer clowns strategic geniuses, sacrificing their careers for common good. Not many people who go into politics have the character to do that, and we see several here. Despite all of this the alternative sure looks compelling though.

McHrozni

 

[McHrozni]

IMO out-out-out is the single most important thing so that's leaving the EU, having the ability to shut our borders and no longer having the tempering effects of EU protections for human rights, workers and the environment . If that can be achieved with minimal damage to our economic prospects then so much the better but the most important thing is to achieve the primary objective at all costs.

Maybe. But why are they such fanatic out-out-outers? There should be some sort of visible gain or benefit from those. Near as I can tell, there is none - unless you want to abuse human rights, workers and destroy the environment for abuses' sake, without receiving any benefits from it. This is behavior we see from football hooligans perpetrated by educated people for no reason. It makes no sense that I can see. Can you find any?

Enough are, after all the anti-EU nonsense that's been doing the rounds for decades has had a ready audience.

The roles will be reversed though. It will be Tories explaining why unemployment, poverty and prices all rise. Deflecting the blame works only if you have something to show first.

McHrozni

 

[Pixel42]

Maybe. But why are they such fanatic out-out-outers? There should be some sort of visible gain or benefit from those. Near as I can tell, there is none - unless you want to abuse human rights, workers and destroy the environment for abuses' sake, without receiving any benefits from it. This is behavior we see from football hooligans perpetrated by educated people for no reason. It makes no sense that I can see. Can you find any?

Money. They'll be well paid by the companies who will be making huge profits when the UK is a tax haven/sweat shop right next to the EU.

 

[McHrozni]

Money. They'll be well paid by the companies who will be making huge profits when the UK is a tax haven/sweat shop right next to the EU.

There are two assumptions:

1. This will happen and
2. The money thus gained will exceed the opportunities they will waste by chasing the high earners out.

Governments' answer was that UK would be able to export more to non-EU markets, by "relaxing the rules". EU is a net exporter, so I doubt EU rules are determinable to exports to third countries. If anything common standards and strict controls encourage exports, because customers know what they're getting.

McHrozni

 

[Aepervius]

W
These are educated people. I find it hard to believe this farce is their genuine best effort.

Not to Godwin the thread, but many "farces" in history have been done by well educated people at the head of governments...

 

[McHrozni]

Not to Godwin the thread, but many "farces" in history have been done by well educated people at the head of governments...

Destroying another country for the sake of yours is a tad different to destroying your country for the sake of destroying your country. Those farces in history had goals to improve their countries, and often started off well at a first glance.

Brexit ... not so much.

McHrozni