Brexit: Now What? Part II

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ceptimus said:
If we can get the cherry-picked deal we want with all the benefits and no drawbacks, the obvious question will be why on earth didn't we leave decades ago.
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Erm, no... The obvious question will be why doesn't everyone leave the EU and get the same better deal, instant improvement in the economy of every country in the EU.

I've thought about this for a good five minutes, and I can't see any flaw in my reasoning.

Twop Twips sent one of their better tweets today.
TwopTwips said:
PRETEND you're Theresa May by playing poker with a big mirror behind you.
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Banks becoming a little clearer on their position post-Brexit in the event of a Hard Brexit:

Two of the largest investment banks in the City of London have said that some staff will definitely have to move abroad when the UK leaves the EU.

HSBC's chief executive, Stuart Gulliver, told Bloomberg he was preparing to move 1,000 staff from London to Paris.

And Axel Weber, boss of Swiss bank UBS, told the BBC "about 1,000" of its 5,000 London jobs could be hit by Brexit.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38663537

Now I realise that the intention was to try an rebalance the UK economy and not rely so much on financial services. I had assumed that the objective was to grow the other sectors but I guess shrinking the financial services sector would also do it :rolleyes:

Fear not, it's not like these are high-paying jobs that provide tens (hundreds ?) of millions in taxes to the Exchequer and underpin thousands of other jobs across the economy :mad:
 
Prediction: The actual deal will be something like:

- A technocratic proper prorating of who owes whom what; disengaging of UK/EU finances
- Most or all EU/UK citizens legally residing elsewhere can remain where they are, system changes from then on to visa-based work permits that are short term.
- EU to the UK: "Standard WTO rules. Just like anybody else, which is the independence you wanted."

Very little actual special trade deals are achieved by the UK with the EU, in other words. Out is out, and the UK finance industry moves to Dublin and Frankfurt. Scotland drinks more scotch.
 
ceptimus said:
One thing about the LibDems that should deter those likely to vote for them, is their seeming reluctance to accept the result of a democratic vote.

The clue is in their party name.
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The LibDems would be happy with another vote where people are clear what they're voting for and against. Would you?
 
Hlafordlaes said:
Prediction: The actual deal will be something like:

- A technocratic proper prorating of who owes whom what; disengaging of UK/EU finances
- Most or all EU/UK citizens legally residing elsewhere can remain where they are, system changes from then on to visa-based work permits that are short term.
- EU to the UK: "Standard WTO rules. Just like anybody else, which is the independence you wanted."

Very little actual special trade deals are achieved by the UK with the EU, in other words. Out is out, and the UK finance industry moves to Dublin and Frankfurt. Scotland drinks more scotch.
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And those companies like Toyota that stay get tax cuts at the expense of public services and the right to import skilled labour from Europe where there's a 'need'. The joke is on Ceptimus and the other xenophobes. The skilled labour in shortage professions will keep coming, the criminals and unlicensed workers will keep coming, about the only people that will be kept out will be the students and entrepreneurs who put money into our economy.
 
The Don said:
And now our "lovable buffoon" of a Foreign Secretary is pouring gasoline on the Brexit fire by referring back to the second world war in the context of Brexit
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Of course he was going to mention the War. May wants to take us back to the 50's : Boris "Basil" Johnson is outbidding her with the 40's.
 
McHrozni said:
There is a very easy counter to that: British people did not vote on whether or not to drastically reduce employment rights. Brexit does not dictate, or even imply, reducing those rights.
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A Tory majority government plus the Leave vote does guarantee the attempt, I think. We shall see in a few years, if the government doesn't fall in the meantime.
 
CapelDodger said:
The LibDems would be happy with another vote where people are clear what they're voting for and against. Would you?
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This 'clear' argument is just a way of rejecting a result you don't like. It was perfectly clear the first time round - the single market and the 'danger' of leaving it was discussed ad nauseam.

Some voters doubtless couldn't be bothered to properly research the issues and were just responding to slogans and advice from campaigners, the media, and experts. Your gripe is that there weren't enough such voters swayed by the Prime Ministers, government, USA president, and most experts to vote the way you wanted.

Do you think the campaigning would be much different if there were a re-run? Why do you think the issues would be 'clear'?

I reject the idea of a re-run because it's unnecessary, expensive, and a waste of valuable time, but if there was one now I'm confident that the leave side would win again and by a bigger margin than last time.
 
Hlafordlaes said:
Prediction: The actual deal will be something like:

- A technocratic proper prorating of who owes whom what; disengaging of UK/EU finances
- Most or all EU/UK citizens legally residing elsewhere can remain where they are, system changes from then on to visa-based work permits that are short term.
- EU to the UK: "Standard WTO rules. Just like anybody else, which is the independence you wanted."

Very little actual special trade deals are achieved by the UK with the EU, in other words. Out is out, and the UK finance industry moves to Dublin and Frankfurt. Scotland drinks more scotch.
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Sounds about right to me.....

Immigration is not significantly reduced once the dust settles on the Brexit-induced recession. The Brexiteers trumpet a lot about having control back and letting all the EU and non-EU migrants in but the numbers do not fall.

Because of the need to sell to Europe, even under WTO terms, businesses like agriculture have an even more onerous time. For example, rather than comparatively simple EU traceability requirements, the UK has to produce reams of paper for every tomato produced. The government has to compensate producers for their extra cost and effort - the debt continues to accelerate in growth - happy days :mad:
 
CapelDodger said:
A Tory majority government plus the Leave vote does guarantee the attempt, I think. We shall see in a few years, if the government doesn't fall in the meantime.
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In a sense it would be rather smart of EU to allow Brits to come to work to EU unilaterally, regardless of British shenanigans. Tories could still push for such legislation, but many skilled professionals could opt for greener shores as a result.

It would also help to drain the soul out of London City.

It's just something to ponder. It would likely not be the easiest of sells to the electorates of EU members, but it's potentially a way of making the hard Brexit especially hard on UK in a way not even Theresa May can pin the blame on.

McHrozni
 
ceptimus said:
I reject the idea of a re-run because it's unnecessary, expensive, and a waste of valuable time, but if there was one now I'm confident that the leave side would win again and by a bigger margin than last time.
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What makes you so confident?

McHrozni
 
Hlafordlaes said:
Prediction: The actual deal will be something like:

- A technocratic proper prorating of who owes whom what; disengaging of UK/EU finances
- Most or all EU/UK citizens legally residing elsewhere can remain where they are, system changes from then on to visa-based work permits that are short term.
- EU to the UK: "Standard WTO rules. Just like anybody else, which is the independence you wanted."

Very little actual special trade deals are achieved by the UK with the EU, in other words. Out is out, and the UK finance industry moves to Dublin and Frankfurt. Scotland drinks more scotch.
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I actually predict in addition to the above that the UK will politically say they made a lot of new international trade agreement, but most of those will be barely different to WTO, OR , when they are trully different, they will be about importing something which would have not been allowed under EU rules : e.g. beef swimming in artificial hormone and anti biotics.
 
ceptimus said:
Do you think the campaigning would be much different if there were a re-run? Why do you think the issues would be 'clear'?
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Definitively it would change. The youngling , rather than stay out en mass confident of the win of remain, would understand now the risk and go en mass to vote for remain.


If you think if it was voted again the absentia of the younger would still be as high, think again : they have understood by now how the old fart are about to **** their future royally.

ETA: and as linked previously , the younger generation are massively for remain
 
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Aepervius said:
Definitively it would change. The youngling , rather than stay out en mass confident of the win of remain, would understand now the risk and go en mass to vote for remain.


If you think if it was voted again the absentia of the younger would still be as high, think again : they have understood by now how the old fart are about to **** their future royally.

ETA: and as linked previously , the younger generation are massively for remain
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Depending on when it was run a significant chunk of the majority may already have disappeared thanks to 'natural wastage'

Also at least some voters who prefered an EEA option would vote against a hard Brexit.

If the actual terms were presented and voted on I reckon about 60/40 against leaving at least.
 
Aepervius said:
Definitively it would change. The youngling , rather than stay out en mass confident of the win of remain, would understand now the risk and go en mass to vote for remain.


If you think if it was voted again the absentia of the younger would still be as high, think again : they have understood by now how the old fart are about to **** their future royally.

ETA: and as linked previously , the younger generation are massively for remain
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Yup, 3:1 in 18-24 group. Brexit was a project of the old and less educated.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politic...fferent-demographic-groups-vote-eu-referendum

McHrozni
 
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Darat said:
I think part of May's attitude and plans is in fact something not to do with the EU - or not directly - and that is to engineer a withdrawal from Churchill's ECHR. I think she harbours resentment that it "interferes" with the UK.
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I get the impression that despite the ECHR being a document that's grounded heavily in British ideas of freedom some people see it as a thing for Johnny Foreigner to follow, but not the British.

The Don said:
ceptimus knows that and AFAIK has been consistently "Hard Brexit and damn the consequences".

IIRC ceptimus views the economic risks as being an acceptable price to pay to get sovereignty back and considers the economic risks as presented by the Remainers as being overblown because the EU will come to pretty favourable terms...
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So how long until the UK declares independence from other organisations, such as the WTO, or the UN?
 
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