Brexit: Now What? Part II

[Skeptic Ginger]

Has it been brought up yet that Putin interfered in the Brexit vote just like they interfered in the US election?

IS THE BREXIT VOTE LEGITIMATE IF RUSSIA INFLUENCED THE OUTCOME?

Reports suggested that Russia used its vast intelligence apparatus during the run up to the U.K.’s June referendum on EU membership in favor of the winning “leave” vote. Both RT and Sputnik, English-language news outlets which receive funding from the Kremlin, produced often misleading news coverage that tallied with the campaign urging voters to leave the EU.

Russia is also believed to have leveraged its “troll army”—individuals paid by the Kremlin to produce and promote fake social media content—to focus on messaging around the referendum campaign.

Why Putin Is Meddling in Britain’s Brexit Vote

The Kremlin claims it’s neutral as Britain prepares to vote on whether to leave the European Union, but Russia’s own propaganda says otherwise.

EU referendum: What does Russia gain from Brexit?

In the coming weeks, [article is from June] expect Russian state media to contrast post-referendum upheaval and uncertainty abroad with a picture of "stability" back home and images of a "strong" President Putin at the helm.
Ahead of parliamentary elections later this year, such coverage could boost the party of power, United Russia, and the president himself. Good for the ratings!

 

[Undesired Walrus]

Realistically ... don't wait for the 2 years time to pass.



There will likely be a deal preserving the rights of those who arrived before UK leaves EU, or before an arbitrarily chosen date that is not decided yet and will be announced in advance (though by how much is an open question). After that, given the stink raised by deplorables, it will likely be much harder.



McHrozni

Won't that likely lead to an increase in migration numbers to U.K pre-brexit then?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Aber]

Won't that likely lead to an increase in migration numbers to U.K pre-brexit then?

Which is what has been happening since the vote.

 

[Garrison]

So the woman who campaigned for Remain is now proposing the very thing that campaign said would do huge damage to the country. Was she lying then in the hopes of getting in to Number 10 based on her 'loyalty', or lying now just to stay there?

ETA: Of course this isn't all about keeping out the foreigners, the Conservatives are positively salivating at the thought of all those employment rights they can rip up now we won't have the EU to force them to treat workers like people instead of disposable parts.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

A return of the death penalty, particularly if it were administered the same as previously—a short wait, then a long drop—might help reduce prison numbers, which could then be used for immigrants. So it's easy to see the appeal.

I thought her plan was just hanging immigrants?

If I remember rightly her bugbear was having to afford human rights to the poor and the darkies and not just upstanding English gentlemen and ladies.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Realistically ... don't wait for the 2 years time to pass.

There will likely be a deal preserving the rights of those who arrived before UK leaves EU, or before an arbitrarily chosen date that is not decided yet and will be announced in advance (though by how much is an open question). After that, given the stink raised by deplorables, it will likely be much harder.

McHrozni

I
Wouldnt be sure that deal will happen. Hanging the uk expats out to dry might be seen as a price worth paying to oust the eastern europeans that the deplorables hate so much

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Sure. Or any other EU country. All is well. The problem is that post brexit, you will have to apply for a visa to even holiday in the rest of Europe. Good luck with that.

Unlikely a visa will be be needed for tourism. Working is a different story

 

[abaddon]

Unlikely a visa will be be needed for tourism. Working is a different story

It won't matter. UKians will have to demonstrate to the EU that they are seeking a holiday not some form of employ. Everyone gets tarred with that brush. Do you somehow think that one can tell tourists from economic migrants on sight? Guess again.

 

[CapelDodger]

However, as he is the only real alternative game in town perhaps its time for all of us who are genuinely afraid of what Brexit will bring to start pressuring him to be the real party for those of us who are worried about the disaster facing us.

To my mind the only party which we can coalesce around is the LibDems. They're the only party without faultlines on the EU, they can present credible centrist policies on all the other issues, and they've got a national structure in place. They disappeared overnight, they can reappear overnight. If they take a clear and bold stance - "We will struggle to the last to stop this happening" - they might just achieve it. Perhaps by attracting enough Tories to bring down the government then winning an election in concert with the SNP.

We're in uncharted waters. Almost anything could happen.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

It won't matter. UKians will have to demonstrate to the EU that they are seeking a holiday not some form of employ. Everyone gets tarred with that brush. Do you somehow think that one can tell tourists from economic migrants on sight? Guess again.

Hardly any developed countries require tourist visas between them.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

To my mind the only party which we can coalesce around is the LibDems. They're the only party without faultlines on the EU, they can present credible centrist policies on all the other issues, and they've got a national structure in place. They disappeared overnight, they can reappear overnight. If they take a clear and bold stance - "We will struggle to the last to stop this happening" - they might just achieve it. Perhaps by attracting enough Tories to bring down the government then winning an election in concert with the SNP.

We're in uncharted waters. Almost anything could happen.

The last for lib dems appears to be close to the first for everyone else. If they are the hope then we are truly **********.

 

[Aepervius]

It won't matter. UKians will have to demonstrate to the EU that they are seeking a holiday not some form of employ. Everyone gets tarred with that brush. Do you somehow think that one can tell tourists from economic migrants on sight? Guess again.

UK folk and EU folk are unlikely to work as illegal immigrant for a variety of reason. That is why this is not a concern, you get in the country, and maybe you overstay, but get an illegal job ? That's a tall order , because don't forget, in most EU country the visa department can and will simply communicate to other (police, tax) department that you overstayed, as such DB are nowadays connected, and since in many country you have to apply to revenue/tax with your pay, or social security and at that point you will get kicked sooner or later. And that would also mean a fine for the firm which employ you, so nobody would make that legally. And illegally ? You have got no legal presence, no health coverage, and many other problems.

I am not saying that this will not happen, but I think this is an edge case rather than the rule.

Basically I doubt this is a concern both way (UK folk illegally in EU, and vice versa).

 

[abaddon]

UK folk and EU folk are unlikely to work as illegal immigrant for a variety of reason. That is why this is not a concern, you get in the country, and maybe you overstay, but get an illegal job ? That's a tall order , because don't forget, in most EU country the visa department can and will simply communicate to other (police, tax) department that you overstayed, as such DB are nowadays connected, and since in many country you have to apply to revenue/tax with your pay, or social security and at that point you will get kicked sooner or later. And that would also mean a fine for the firm which employ you, so nobody would make that legally. And illegally ? You have got no legal presence, no health coverage, and many other problems.

Wrong. There are buckets of migrants working on a cash only basis in every EU country. In the UK, the border control folks are overwhelmed by the sheer volume of illegals, and those they find are generally released on parole because there is nowhere to put them. They are required to sign in weekly and not work for the duration. What actually happens is that they do not sign in at all, they simply disappear into the background never to be seen again. EU membership is not an issue. Brexit will not fix this. Brexit will simply discriminate against the legal migrants. EU citizens will be anathema. Stupid, but let us roll with it. How, exactly, will Brexit prevent the ongoing abuse of the borders perpetrated by the indians, pakistanies, bangladeshies, chinese and so forth? Brexit doesn't care. Brexit is solely directed at the EU.

I am not saying that this will not happen, but I think this is an edge case rather than the rule.

Chop chop. cut off the EU immigration. Still have to deal with the steady stream of financial migrants from the asian sub continent. It isn't in the EU and there is stuff all you can do about it. Leave the EU? Go ahead. It will have no impact on the level of asian migration. As a rule, EU migrants are skilled. Plumbers, sparks, brickies and so on. Asian migrants? not so much. Fundamentally, brexit means tossing the skilled labour under the bus in favour of unskilled slaves.

Basically I doubt this is a concern both way (UK folk illegally in EU, and vice versa).

It isn't. Stay in the EU or leave the EU. In either event, you still have the very same problems. Brexit does not fix that. Sure, brexit could be construed to reduce net immigration if one closes one eye and squints. That is not the issue. If the EU entirely went away right now, it still would not be the issue.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Writing in the Daily Telegraph, Mr Johnson said: "We will no longer be part of the common commercial policy, or bound by the Common External Tariff, and we will no longer have our trade policy run by the EU commission.

"That means - crucially - that we will be able to do new free trade deals with countries around the world. They are already queuing up.

"Under EU rules, we are not formally allowed to negotiate these new treaties until we leave. But there is nothing to say that ideas cannot be pencilled in."

"We will continue the joyous exploration of other European culture and civilisation that has been expanding ever since the dawn of cheap air travel, and we will continue to welcome vast numbers of EU tourists to the UK.

"We are not slamming the door to migrants, or hauling up the drawbridge."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38658998

 

[ceptimus]

One thing about the LibDems that should deter those likely to vote for them, is their seeming reluctance to accept the result of a democratic vote.

The clue is in their party name.

 

[abaddon]

One thing about the LibDems that should deter those likely to vote for them, is their seeming reluctance to accept the result of a democratic vote.

The clue is in their party name.

No, the libdems are simply aghast at the willful hari-kiri.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

One thing about the LibDems that should deter those likely to vote for them, is their seeming reluctance to accept the result of a democratic vote.

The clue is in their party name.

Nobody voted for this version of brexit. Nobody voted for any version of brexit because the leave campaign were too cowardly to actually put forward a proposal on what leave meant. Cant have your cake and eat it. The anti democrats were those who conned the public with lies then used that for their own ends

 

[MCel58]

Hardly any developed countries require tourist visas between them.

Certainly most EU countries do for non eu tourists. It is called a Shengen tourist visa

"Who needs a Schengen Visa?
Non-European citizens willing to travel to the Schengen Area are bound to apply for a short-term Schengen visa under “tourist” specification. Depending on the visa issued they may be allowed to enter once (single entry) or multiple times (multiple entry) and stay for no longer than 3 months 90 days per year in between the period of 6 months. Such a decision is made by the authorities depending on the nature of ones travel purpose and other relevant factors"

 

[MCel58]

UK folk and EU folk are unlikely to work as illegal immigrant for a variety of reason. That is why this is not a concern, you get in the country, and maybe you overstay, but get an illegal job ? That's a tall order , because don't forget, in most EU country the visa department can and will simply communicate to other (police, tax) department that you overstayed, as such DB are nowadays connected, and since in many country you have to apply to revenue/tax with your pay, or social security and at that point you will get kicked sooner or later. And that would also mean a fine for the firm which employ you, so nobody would make that legally. And illegally ? You have got no legal presence, no health coverage, and many other problems.

I am not saying that this will not happen, but I think this is an edge case rather than the rule.

Basically I doubt this is a concern both way (UK folk illegally in EU, and vice versa).

The question is really whether the existing arrangements for any expat who has residency and a job in the EU will still be in place particularly as many have their health insurance paid through their employer. This is very worrying for most expats especially when she said yesterday that she would walk away with no deal if she felt she was getting a bad deal.
That would leave all expats in a very bad position where we would then be in the same position as all other non eu workers and may find ourselves having to re-apply for residency and more importantly apply for work permits for the first time where there are no guarantees that we would get one. In the case of residency the Vienna convention may apply but it will probably not in the case of work permits and access to healthcare.
Further to that, the position of the affordability of comprehensive health insurance if our existing arrangements are not carried forward is causing real worries for all expats but particularly the older and elderly ones. She may have just replaced her European migrant workers who are paying tax and National insurance with large numbers of returning older and elderly U.K. citizens who already have U.K. state pensions and will need immediate access to health and care services and perhaps housing at a time when the NHS and care sector is collapsing from the demands placed on it by the existing older and elderly population in the U.K.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Certainly most EU countries do for non eu tourists. It is called a Shengen tourist visa

"Who needs a Schengen Visa?
Non-European citizens willing to travel to the Schengen Area are bound to apply for a short-term Schengen visa under “tourist” specification. Depending on the visa issued they may be allowed to enter once (single entry) or multiple times (multiple entry) and stay for no longer than 3 months 90 days per year in between the period of 6 months. Such a decision is made by the authorities depending on the nature of ones travel purpose and other relevant factors"

Nope. Thats not needed for tourism for most people. I know from personal experience.