Cont: Brexit: Now What? Part 6. Pick up sticks...

[jimbob]

Reports from Brussels that TM's visit has had a great effect. She's made things even worse, and had a square go with Juncker because he called her 'nebulous'

Smashing stuff.

From the guardian

It contains quotes from the Danish prime minister, Lars Løkke Rasmussen, who recalls when Danes and Irish voters opposed EU treaties in previous referendums, adding: “In both countries someone took the responsibility on them to decide what to do.”

Danish Prime Minister @larsloekke say that it is now up to the House of Commons to define what the UK actually want 1/4 #euco #eudk #Brexit

The Daily Telegraph’s Brussels correspondent also has this account of one of Theresa May’s responses during last night’s discussions:

Understand that , under questioning from EU 27 leaders, one of Theresa May's responses was "Brexit means Brexit."

Jeez.

If she actually told the EU27 that Brexit means Brexit, she's lost the plot and possibly is having a breakdown.

 

[Olmstead]

Can someone tell me whether my understanding of this backstop business is correct:

The EU wants the backstop in place so that Ireland doesn't get screwed over if another solution isn't found.

The UK doesn't like what the backstop would mean for them, so they want an assurance that it would have a time limit, but they can't come up with their own assurance that Ireland won't be screwed over after the time limit.

Is that about right?

 

[jimbob]

Can someone tell me whether my understanding of this backstop business is correct:

The EU wants the backstop in place so that Ireland doesn't get screwed over if another solution isn't found.

The UK doesn't like what the backstop would mean for them, so they want an assurance that it would have a time limit, but they can't come up with their own assurance that Ireland won't be screwed over after the time limit.

Is that about right?

Well, being a firm believer in the promises of JRM et al and in the competence of the Brexit negotiations thus far I have no problem with the backstop because it would only get triggered in the unlikely event that there's no deal, and the ERG has demonstrated to their own satisfaction that the clarity of their own requirements and the strength of the UK's negotiating position.

To object would be to say that it's not as easy as the cabinet had said, and at the time, of course, Johnson and Raab (and Davis) had been heavily involved in the negotiations so could influence them as they saw fit.

 

[jimbob]

Can someone tell me whether my understanding of this backstop business is correct:

The EU wants the backstop in place so that Ireland doesn't get screwed over if another solution isn't found.

The UK doesn't like what the backstop would mean for them, so they want an assurance that it would have a time limit, but they can't come up with their own assurance that Ireland won't be screwed over after the time limit.

Is that about right?

Anyway a couple of days ago, I heard on the today programme, one of the Tories who submitted a letter of no confidence explain that the ERG has a perfectly viable option for the Irish border that would be acceptable to everyone and it just needs a bit of vision to implement.

Because of this I'm sure the Irish government will be reassured.

Admittedly, it wasn't made entirely* clear exactly how the ERG option would work in detail, or why various so-called experts objected to the general idea, but I imagine it's just a failure of imagination and a disinclination to get to the nitty-gritty of implementing a working version og yhe ERG's proposal on their part.




*Okay, if I'm being honest, "remotely" would be more accurate here.

 

[dudalb]

May is saying she had a "robust" exchange with EU leaders.
In non BS language, that means May and EU leaders had one hell of a yelling match.
No deal Brixit here we come.

 

[Michel H]

May is saying she had a "robust" exchange with EU leaders.
In non BS language, that means May and EU leaders had one hell of a yelling match.
No deal Brixit here we come.

This is the big danger, of course (big lines of trucks at customs posts ...).

I think they were polite, but a major problem remains ...

The Times just wrote:

European leaders reneged on an pledge to provide Mrs May with a commitment that the bloc was prepared to compromise on the Irish backstop.

Instead they deleted a clause in the summit’s conclusions that would see the bloc provide “a further assurance” that the arrangement would not “trap” Britain in a legally binding customs union indefinitely.

At a press conference this afternoon the prime minister attempted to put a brave face on the setback, insisting that EU leaders had today expressed willingness to look at agreeing such a document.
...

(https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/...eged-on-promise-to-help-theresa-may-kq0t5fktn )

It seems to me it is really up to European leaders to make some concessions at this point (in their own interest), more than up to Theresa May who is in a very difficult position, stuck between Europe and her own parliament. If, through some European concessions, she can win a few dozen votes in the House of Commons, she could save face and then go back to the people with a new referendum (choice between her deal, remaining and a worrying no deal), this could create a new dynamics.

 

[Andy_Ross]

What would be 'in their own interest'?
How does a no deal Brexit hurt them?

 

[dudalb]

This is the big danger, of course (big lines of trucks at customs posts ...).

I think they were polite, but a major problem remains ...

The Times just wrote:

(https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/...eged-on-promise-to-help-theresa-may-kq0t5fktn )

It seems to me it is really up to European leaders to make some concessions at this point (in their own interest), more than up to Theresa May who is in a very difficult position, stuck between Europe and her own parliament. If, through some European concessions, she can win a few dozen votes in the House of Commons, she could save face and then go back to the people with a new referendum (choice between her deal, remaining and a worrying no deal), this could create a new dynamics.

May has stated time and time again that a new referendum is off the table.
You seem to be a little unaware of the realities of the situation in the UK.

 

[Michel H]

What would be 'in their own interest'?
How does a no deal Brexit hurt them?

I live in Belgium and, in my country, there are concerns that a hard Brexit could lead to 42,000 job losses, see https://www.rtbf.be/info/economie/d...outer-42-000-emplois-a-la-belgique?id=9741837 (article in French).

This article states that a no deal, hard Brexit could have a "catastrophic impact" on Belgium.

 

[Lukraak_Sisser]

This is the big danger, of course (big lines of trucks at customs posts ...).

I think they were polite, but a major problem remains ...

The Times just wrote:

(https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/...eged-on-promise-to-help-theresa-may-kq0t5fktn )

It seems to me it is really up to European leaders to make some concessions at this point (in their own interest), more than up to Theresa May who is in a very difficult position, stuck between Europe and her own parliament. If, through some European concessions, she can win a few dozen votes in the House of Commons, she could save face and then go back to the people with a new referendum (choice between her deal, remaining and a worrying no deal), this could create a new dynamics.

A good analogy for the UK's position at the moment would be the following.

Imagine someone working a good medium level position at a large firm. They earn a good salary. At one point though they decide that they can earn a much better salary as an independent consultant, without actually checking if this is true or whether there is even a good local market. They then hand in their resignation, insult everyone still working there, including their boss, and basically go 'so long stupid company slaves, I will be rich and successful and you are all too stupid to see my brilliance!'

They then try to milk the company for the best severance package they can get, and out of resignation, just to get it over with, the company gives them some money.

At which point they discover that there isn't a market for their skills as an adviser, and the only jobs they can get pay far less and would cause them to lose their house. So they get in trouble with their spouse who points out that the whole idea is stupid.

And rather than ask for their old job back, they show up at the company's door, complain that it is all their fault, and demand that the company create a new, better position which pays more and has less work. After all, otherwise they'd lose their house.

I'm sorry for those in the UK not responsible for this current idiotic course and government, but the EU has given the UK enough leeway as it is. No matter how many tantrums the Tories and brexiteers throw, they are not going to get MORE concessions, nor is the EU responsible for cleaning up the mess the tories are creating at the moment.
The NI situation was a well know fact before brexit, and just because the leave camp lied about it being 'no problem' does not make that true.

 

[lobosrul5]

This is the big danger, of course (big lines of trucks at customs posts ...).

I think they were polite, but a major problem remains ...

The Times just wrote:

(https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/...eged-on-promise-to-help-theresa-may-kq0t5fktn )

It seems to me it is really up to European leaders to make some concessions at this point (in their own interest), more than up to Theresa May who is in a very difficult position, stuck between Europe and her own parliament. If, through some European concessions, she can win a few dozen votes in the House of Commons, she could save face and then go back to the people with a new referendum (choice between her deal, remaining and a worrying no deal), this could create a new dynamics.

My take: they're not going to give the UK a very advantageous deal, even though if there is a no-deal brexit it will hurt the EU (just much much less than the UK). The reason being is if they do, then everyone else in the EU is going to say hey, why can't we leave the EU while getting pretty much all the benefits of staying in too!

 

[Strawberry]

Can someone tell me whether my understanding of this backstop business is correct:

The EU wants the backstop in place so that Ireland doesn't get screwed over if another solution isn't found.

The UK doesn't like what the backstop would mean for them, so they want an assurance that it would have a time limit, but they can't come up with their own assurance that Ireland won't be screwed over after the time limit.

Is that about right?

Correct.

 

[Strawberry]

I live in Belgium and, in my country, there are concerns that a hard Brexit could lead to 42,000 job losses, see https://www.rtbf.be/info/economie/d...outer-42-000-emplois-a-la-belgique?id=9741837 (article in French).

This article states that a no deal, hard Brexit could have a "catastrophic impact" on Belgium.

I'm posting from the Northern Ireland border. Cry me a river.

The Brexiters aren't appeasable, if you give them some concessions they will come back looking for more and more. Painful as it may be for us all, we may have to deal with a crash out Brexit before enough British people see they've been lied to and finally stand up to the extremists in their own body politic.

 

[Michel H]

May has stated time and time again that a new referendum is off the table.
You seem to be a little unaware of the realities of the situation in the UK.

May has stated time and time again that a new referendum is off the table.

Yes, that's right but she could change her mind (especially if she is in a good mood ). It would not be the first time. Remember, once upon a time she was a Remainer, but these days, she is generally advocating Brexit as an "opportunity" (sic).

 

[Hungry81]

I'm posting from the Northern Ireland border. Cry me a river.

The Brexiters aren't appeasable, if you give them some concessions they will come back looking for more and more. Painful as it may be for us all, we may have to deal with a crash out Brexit before enough British people see they've been lied to and finally stand up to the extremists in their own body politic.

The problem is that extremists of this type never hold themselves accountable. They make up lies just to get their own way, take credit for successes even if they had nothing to do with them and blame everyone else for failures even if they are clearly their fault. Never having to say you were wrong means you were never wrong to some people, reality and consequeces be damned.

 

[Strawberry]

The problem is that extremists of this type never hold themselves accountable. They make up lies just to get their own way, take credit for successes even if they had nothing to do with them and blame everyone else for failures even if they are clearly their fault. Never having to say you were wrong means you were never wrong to some people, reality and consequeces be damned.

Exactly. Notice too how their definition of Brexit has shifted like the sands, and yet all the time they claim their definition is the only real Brexit and anything else is a betrayal of the will of the people. During the referendum, Brexit meant leaving the EU but having a good trade relationship with them like Norway or Switzerland, (those were the two countries the Leave campaigners always chose to use as an example of what Britain would do after Brexit), after the referendum, they switched to describing any Norwegian/Swiss type relationship as 'soft Brexit' or 'BRINO' and Brexit was redefined as leaving the SM and having a third country/Canada style FTA. Over the course of the last few weeks, Canada style FTA has become BRINO and the only real Brexit is leaving with no deal and trading on WTO alone.

Its completely Orwellian, we have always been at war with Eastasia, type stuff. You can't appease people like that.

 

[Klimax]

This is the big danger, of course (big lines of trucks at customs posts ...).

I think they were polite, but a major problem remains ...

The Times just wrote:

(https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/...eged-on-promise-to-help-theresa-may-kq0t5fktn )

It seems to me it is really up to European leaders to make some concessions at this point (in their own interest), more than up to Theresa May who is in a very difficult position, stuck between Europe and her own parliament. If, through some European concessions, she can win a few dozen votes in the House of Commons, she could save face and then go back to the people with a new referendum (choice between her deal, remaining and a worrying no deal), this could create a new dynamics.

Rubbish. No concessions for them. They rejected all options, they don't deserve anything more. Especially ANY concession!

 

[P.J. Denyer]

We were pitched a unicorn.

We've established that unicorns don't exist

We're still debating if we should buy the unicorn or not.


It's madness.

We were pitched a unicorn.

We've established that unicorns don't exist

The people who pitched the Unicorn Option claim we absolutely, positively and unreservedly agreed to buy a donkey with a traffic cone tied to it's head and anyone who says otherwise is an anti democratic cheater.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

I can understand the WW2 thinking mode, as it is still within living memory for the older generation who lived through the forties. There is a perception of being pushed around by the much larger nation, population wise, Germany. Families still bear grudges about the trials and tribulation brought on them by German aggression and expansionism. I don't think Brits have ever seen Russia as allies. That was a strategic FD Roosevelt thing to overcome the Bosh.

Strangely though, OTOH Brits have far more in common with German culture and language than that of the Slavic Russians. Call it Churchill-style stubborness or whatever, but I don't blame Brits for their scepticism of Merkel and co.

The thing is, the core Leave vote is older than average, but not so old as those who remember the war. Elderly voters who lived through the war tended to vote Remain.

So it seems to me the attitude that the Germans are the baddies is strongest among those with a "memory" of the war based on being brought up on flag-waving movies.

 

[Puppycow]

Since a deal seems to be impossible I guess we should expect a "hard Brexit" now, right?

Will the consequences really be so dire if there's no deal or is there a bit of scaremongering going on?

Perhaps the PM should stop trying to negotiate and start preparing the country for this scenario.