Cont: Brexit: Now What? Part 6. Pick up sticks...

[Darat]

Wow, apparently we'll be economically worse off no matter how we exit the EU.

Who would have thought that?

 

[wobs]

Wow, apparently we'll be economically worse off no matter how we exit the EU.

Who would have thought that?

You're just not wishing hard enough.

 

[Vixen]

Wow, apparently we'll be economically worse off no matter how we exit the EU.

Who would have thought that?

From the GUARDIAN

The keenly-anticipated document concludes that GDP would be 0.6% lower under the Chequers plan in 2035/36 – although that has been ditched after a revolt from the Tory right – and 7.7% lower in the event the UK crashes out with no deal.

In the worst case of all the scenarios modelled, GDP would be 10.7% lower in 15 years’ time, assuming there is no longer any net migration from the EU and EEA.

Remarkably, none of the scenarios modelled exactly approximate to May’s deal agreed over the weekend. But the analysts produced a scenario based on Chequers with 50% higher non-tariff barriers to help with comparison. That held that GDP would be 2.1% lower in 2035/36.

The analysis also concluded that:

• Under a Norway EEA scenario, GDP would be 1.4% lower in 15 years’ time, worse than the additional scenario produced after May’s deal was signed over the weekend.

• Under a Canada-style deal, supported by Boris Johnson and David Davis, the UK would be 4.9% worse off, the study concludes.

 

[ponderingturtle]

You're just not wishing hard enough.

Yep the whole brexit campaign was based on The Secret.

 

[BobTheCoward]

Yes, it's actually a very likely scenario if May utterly refuses to countenance a second referendum, and it's the one the swivel-eyed loons probably want the most.



Yes. At the moment it's difficult to see any outcome that doesn't.

Dave

From a remainer perspective, nothing has changed since the vote. So I don't know why they would call for another vote.

 

[catsmate]

AKA Daily Mail readers.

Hmm, I wonder if a certain idea from The Name of the Rose would be applicable...

 

[Information Analyst]

Not to mention all the pensioners who live most of the year in the UK but have second homes out there for the coldest months. There are a bunch of thgem round my way, all of which pontificated (unconvincingly) for Leave.

I recall a news piece before the Referendum in which various Brits in Spain were interviewed. The ones who were permanent residents were mostly very apprehensive and anti-Brexit, but those who had second homes in Spain were pro-Brexit and thought it would have no effect on their ability to use their properties there.

 

[GlennB]

From a remainer perspective, nothing has changed since the vote. So I don't know why they would call for another vote.

Well, 30 months have passed and little progress has been made in the negotiations. The Tories have proved to be hopelessly at sea and the crunch time is fast approaching. Meanwhile, many negative aspects of the various types of possible Brexit have become much clearer and a degree of panic is beginning to appear.

None of that is, strictly speaking, 'change', but a great deal has been learned that was mostly half-known, or just suspected, back at the referendum.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I recall a news piece before the Referendum in which various Brits in Spain were interviewed. The ones who were permanent residents were mostly very apprehensive and anti-Brexit, but those who had second homes in Spain were pro-Brexit and thought it would have no effect on their ability to use their properties there.

Provided they don't use them for more than 3 months at a time they probably will be able to come and go freely. Of course they might find they need to get pricey travel insurance to cover them or find out that EU reciprocity on healthcare was one of the things we took back control of!

 

[BobTheCoward]

Well, 30 months have passed and little progress has been made in the negotiations. The Tories have proved to be hopelessly at sea and the crunch time is fast approaching. Meanwhile, many negative aspects of the various types of possible Brexit have become much clearer and a degree of panic is beginning to appear.

None of that is, strictly speaking, 'change', but a great deal has been learned that was mostly half-known, or just suspected, back at the referendum.

But that all seems like things remainers said would happen. They have no new knowledge that changes the situation from what they said it was at the time of the vote.

 

[GlennB]

But that all seems like things remainers said would happen. They have no new knowledge that changes the situation from what they said it was at the time of the vote.

The knowledge has crystallised and the possible effects are more imminent. There's a greater sense of urgency.

And Leavers have had time to learn about the Brexit consequences of which they were either totally ignorant or chose to ignore.

 

[fagin]

Bobbity bob bob bob

 

[BobTheCoward]

The knowledge has crystallised and the possible effects are more imminent. There's a greater sense of urgency.

And Leavers have had time to learn about the Brexit consequences of which they were either totally ignorant or chose to ignore.

Then let the leavers ask for it. Remainers had their say and it hasn't changed.

 

[Dave Rogers]

From a remainer perspective, nothing has changed since the vote. So I don't know why they would call for another vote.

Because it's not the remainer perspective that needed to change. The 48% who voted against leaving have not seen any evidence to suggest we may have made a bad choice, but that's not the choice we're stuck with. The 52% may well have seen evidence that theirs wasn't so good, and may want to change their minds.

Dave

 

[fagin]

Do you think leavers/remainers wear little badges to distinguish them?

 

[Dave Rogers]

But that all seems like things remainers said would happen. They have no new knowledge that changes the situation from what they said it was at the time of the vote.

It's less about knowledge than about belief. Leavers simply didn't believe that the EU would refuse to give the UK all the benefits of membership with none of the costs. That belief has a great deal more evidence behind it now.

Dave

 

[Dave Rogers]

Do you think leavers/remainers wear little badges to distinguish them?

Hey, who's been leaking UKIP's next election policies?

Dave

 

[BobTheCoward]

The knowledge has crystallised and the possible effects are more imminent. There's a greater sense of urgency.

And Leavers have had time to learn about the Brexit consequences of which they were either totally ignorant or chose to ignore.

Because it's not the remainer perspective that needed to change. The 48% who voted against leaving have not seen any evidence to suggest we may have made a bad choice, but that's not the choice we're stuck with. The 52% may well have seen evidence that theirs wasn't so good, and may want to change their minds.

Dave

So let the people who changed their minds ask for a new vote. People who had their voice heard, and haven't changed their position, shouldn't be asking for another vote.

 

[Dave Rogers]

So let the people who changed their minds ask for a new vote. People who had their voice heard, and haven't changed their position, shouldn't be asking for another vote.

How do you know which are which?

Dave

 

[BobTheCoward]

How do you know which are which?

Dave

Im not policing anything. It is guidance for ones own personal conduct. I'm indifferent to people ignoring it.