Cont: Brexit: Now What? Magic 8 Ball's up

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Garrison said:
Yeah but that's probably coming from the same people who thought prorogation and calling for an election was a brilliant plan by Johnson/Cummings. Johnson cannot legally make no deal an option, Parliament has taken that off the table. Not to say a no deal is impossible but Johnson can't use it as a threat anymore without inviting legal sanctions.
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He can threaten it, because even if he's forced to ask for an extension the EU is under no obligation to grant it. There have been plenty of statements coming out of the EU that they're not going to grant one unless there is something new being offered. If Johnson doesn't have a deal, then he's offering nothing new and the extension may not be granted.

OTOH, if Johnson is ousted or resigns, then someone else saying "we're going to have an election and a referendum" would be something new and would almost certainly prevent a No Deal.
 
Garrison said:
The deal is as good as it gets without abandoning the 'four freedoms'. Again the issue is in London not Brussels.
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It is nearly six hundred pages long. You seriously think a team with a few months of work cannot find a single mutual improvement to make to it?
 
BobTheCoward said:
It is nearly six hundred pages long. You seriously think a team with a few months of work cannot find a single mutual improvement to make to it?
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Tell you what you go read it and then enlighten the rest of us as to how it could be better for the EU, allowing for the fact that British have rejected every reasonable proposal.
 
Garrison said:
Tell you what you go read it and then enlighten the rest of us as to how it could be better for the EU, allowing for the fact that British have rejected every reasonable proposal.
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Anything based on modeling can use additional data run-out.
 
On a different note, Johnson can easily get Spain to veto an extension. Just sign over Gibraltar and presto, veto bought.
 
Squeegee Beckenheim said:
Not quite. It's all a lot more untested than that. That's why everybody is waiting for the UK Supreme Court to decide on Tuesday.

If you were right and all it needed was for Bercow to take his seat again, then why do you suppose he hasn't done so? He's anti-Brexit, vehemently anti-prorogue, he's already announced his retirement, and it's already been said that the Tories are going to block his peerage. It's what he wants and there are no political or professional consequences he could possibly suffer from it. So why hasn't he done so?

The simple answer would seem to be "because it wouldn't be legal".

Note that the Scottish verdict didn't contain an order for parliament to get back in session. What was reported on Brexitcast being referred to experts in such matters, is that implicit in the Scottish ruling is that the UK Supreme Court will have to make the final determination.
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It didn't make any remedy - i.e ordering parliament to sit again - but it clearly set out that the prorogation was null and this is the case unless and until the Supreme Court reverse that judgement.

I don't know why they haven't gone back and taken their seats. Either they want to avoid further controversy, don't understand the decision, or don't think Scots law counts.
 
BobTheCoward said:
It is nearly six hundred pages long. You seriously think a team with a few months of work cannot find a single mutual improvement to make to it?
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Oh dear. The WA was agreed between Barnier and May and signed off. Only problem is, it didn't get passed by Parliament. AFA the EU are concerned, May signing off on it makes it a contract.

The EU cannot possibly offer EU conditions to non-EU states, which is what the UK will be yet wants to retain open borders and consequent freedom of movement.

The so-called 'back stop' was the plan to have a smooth transition to address this issue.

Thus, the recalcitrant party is not the EU but Alexander the Piffle.
 
I'm watching the last night of the Proms, and there are definitely more EU flags being waved than Union Jacks. There also seem to be quite a few people wearing blue berets with yellow stars around the brim. Good to see.
 
Vixen said:
Oh dear. The WA was agreed between Barnier and May and signed off. Only problem is, it didn't get passed by Parliament. AFA the EU are concerned, May signing off on it makes it a contract.

The EU cannot possibly offer EU conditions to non-EU states, which is what the UK will be yet wants to retain open borders and consequent freedom of movement.

The so-called 'back stop' was the plan to have a smooth transition to address this issue.

Thus, the recalcitrant party is not the EU but Alexander the Piffle.
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I didn't call the EU recalcitrant or say use this time to fix the backstop. I said make the deal better as a general matter with extra time.
 
I'm curious what "improve" and "better" mean in practical terms, but it's Bob, so it will just stay vague and abstract.
 
Delphic Oracle said:
I'm curious what "improve" and "better" mean in practical terms, but it's Bob, so it will just stay vague and abstract.
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If the negotiators agreed to base a number on a model, and that number was 12%, maybe with additional run-out, another run of the model produces 12.3%.
 
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