Cont: Brexit: Now What? Magic 8 Ball's up

[Tolls]

3. Since a no-deal Brexit just happened, Brexit party dies a timely death. Remain vote is split among LibDems and Labour, plus other assorted parties. Win a majority that doesn't require DUP or anyone else.

The fallout from a No Deal will be pretty much instantaneous.
Any vote post 31st will be under the cloud of emptying store shelves, shortages, and inflation, all in the run up to Christmas.
He would be holding an election as the man that stole Christmas.

 

[The Don]

The fallout from a No Deal will be pretty much instantaneous.
Any vote post 31st will be under the cloud of emptying store shelves, shortages, and inflation, all in the run up to Christmas.
He would be holding an election as the man that stole Christmas.

Maybe, a lot of retailers have made Christmas contingency plans for all but the most perishable items.

 

[Darat]

'Another project fear idiot going on about a negative about a no deal...

“We can make them [the damaging effects] less, but they would be slower systems. Those systems and tools were developed in the EU for very good reason. They were very good. We had just signed up to biometric sharing.*In a no-deal we’d lose all that. We’d have to renegotiate it.”


What on earth does Neil Basu head of counter-terrorism know eh?

Bloody experts who needs them eh?

 

[Dave Rogers]

Maybe, a lot of retailers have made Christmas contingency plans for all but the most perishable items.

So, plenty of toys but no food? That'll be fun.

Dave

 

[Darat]

Maybe, a lot of retailers have made Christmas contingency plans for all but the most perishable items.

Yes and no. The bulk of retailers' Christmas shopping is done but a quite a sizeable percentage of deliveries into the country will still be post Brexit. So those containers of goods, stuck in a customs hell... well I'd say get your christmas shopping* in early!

*christmas shopping this year of course refers to tins of food, sugar, dried eggs, tea bags... the usual for 1950s post war UK.....

 

[Darat]

So, plenty of toys but no food? That'll be fun.



Dave

Oh there will be food. Potatoes, sprouts, turnips, all good wholesome food. You'll have to go and pick your own of course.

 

[McHrozni]

There's a lot to be said for that analysis, especially point 3. I'd say he's terrified of a GE with the Brexit party running, not least because his own seat would be in danger.

Running a GE prior to a no-deal Brexit, definitely. But after? Doable, I think.

But the whole scheme is fraught with peril. What if the vonc happens quickly and he has, somehow, to stall the GE process with one trick or another?

The procedure from VNOC to a new GE lasts a minimum of seven weeks if he doesn't actively expedite the process. There are eight weeks between when a VNOC can first be held on September 5th and October 31st. This part is not difficult at all, so long as VNOC is not held on the first parliamentary session after a month long recess he's basically in the clear on this particular point. If UK keeps Thursday as election day the only option would be to hold a GE on Brexit day, which may already be enough. Nor is this a viable way to stop Brexit any more, since any new Parliament would be seated only after Brexit has taken place irrespective of what happens.

And then Brexit itself will immediately demonstrate the realities of post-Brexit life, realities that even Leavers have barely acknowledged, such as the lorry queues on the motorways and at the immigration desks in EU airports, import difficulties (etc etc etc), so a post-Brexit GE will leave him vulnerable.

No, the moment a no-deal Brexit happens the question is no longer what a no-deal Brexit will do to the UK. The question voters will be asking is who is best suited to manage the results. It doesn't have to be BJ in the eyes of the public, if non-Tory vote is evenly split between Labour (an established party with lots of history and cadres) and LibDem (less able party that didn't betray their constituents), BJ can win a clear majority. He doesn't even have to win a plurality of votes, a majority of MPs without a plurality of votes cast is a very real possibility.

I don't think he has a plan at all, and I strongly suspect the PMship is as much of a poisoned chalice as it has been for quite a while.

I hope

Possibly, but time is short indeed. Make no mistake, the plan is still frought with peril - if Parliament demands he asks the EU for an extension as not to do a no-deal Brexit during an election campaign and he is forced to go to Brussels and EU grants the extension despite BJs best efforts not to it could all go down in fire and smoke.

But can you think of a better strategy for him? Not for UK, for him personally? Without delivering Brexit he's likely to lose any election thanks to bleeding voters to Brexit party. He is unable to push the deal through and he is unable to force EU to budge. What else can he do but deliver Brexit and (attempt? appear? to) manage the results?

McHrozni

 

[catsmate]

There are well over 100 bills that have had their 3rd reading in the same day as the first. Come on, did you not hear Boris? . Stop being a doubter, a doomster, a gloomster. Find your Can-do attitude. If the NI budget bill to prop up the coalition bribe the hardline homophobic, misogynistic, Evolution denying, AGW denying, Muslim hating, Catholic hating, fringe protestant loons can be passed in a single day we can easily change the date in an existing bill.

Fixed that.

 

[ceptimus]

There are well over 100 bills that have had their 3rd reading in the same day as the first. Come on, did you not hear Boris? . Stop being a doubter, a doomster, a gloomster. Find your Can-do attitude. If the NI budget bill to prop up the coalition can be passed in a single day we can easily change the date in an existing bill.

You missed the part where I said, "unless the government wants to..."

But of course the government doesn't want to change the law - at long last we have a government that is actually committed to leaving.

 

[catsmate]

Maybe, a lot of retailers have made Christmas contingency plans for all but the most perishable items.

Perhaps, but there'll be a lack of warehouse space. Post-Halloween is usually the time they're ordinarily packed. How add a few weeks of 'contingency' supplies...

Expect shortages, violence, looting et cetera.

 

[Tolls]

Maybe, a lot of retailers have made Christmas contingency plans for all but the most perishable items.

Retailers always stock for Christmas, which is why the storage facilities from September onwards are fairly chocker.

That's the situation currently.

However, since anything coming into the country in those 8 weeks will be slower, more expensive, etc etc, we'll have shortages.

There are shortages normally anyway...and that's with the usual Christmas planning.

It's going to be unavoidable since there's simply no spare capacity.

 

[Lothian]

You missed the part where I said, "unless the government wants to..."

But of course the government doesn't want to change the law - at long last we have a government that is actually committed to leaving.

I think in this case it is if parliament wants to. Do you think there is a majority for no deal in the HoC?

 

[The Don]

I think in this case it is if parliament wants to. Do you think there is a majority for no deal in the HoC?

It's not so much opposition to a no deal - it's coming up with an alternative that can make it through Parliament.

 

[ponderingturtle]

It's not so much opposition to a no deal - it's coming up with an alternative that can make it through Parliament.

Exactly they can't make up their mind on if they want the deal, no deal or not brexit and so instead pretend there are other options and that it is not a simple choice between those three.

 

[a_unique_person]

You missed the part where I said, "unless the government wants to..."



But of course the government doesn't want to change the law - at long last we have a government that is actually committed to leaving.

If May had stayed in power the default no deal would have happened just the same as it is now. They just let May muddle around for a few years to damage her and boost their own standing. Timing works out perfectly.

 

[ceptimus]

If May had stayed in power the default no deal would have happened just the same as it is now. They just let May muddle around for a few years to damage her and boost their own standing. Timing works out perfectly.

The difference is that May would have asked for another extension. Boris won't. The EU would perhaps eventually tire of granting further extensions: at least under Boris we'll be better prepared for no deal.

 

[ceptimus]

I think in this case it is if parliament wants to. Do you think there is a majority for no deal in the HoC?

No there is no majority for it, but to prevent no deal (assuming the EU won't offer an acceptable deal), laws have to be passed or repealed. Luckily, a majority of the current government is content with the current law, and it's very difficult for parliament to make or repeal laws without government assistance.

 

[GlennB]

The difference is that May would have asked for another extension. Boris won't. The EU would perhaps eventually tire of granting further extensions: at least under Boris we'll be better prepared for no deal.

In what way? Nothing very significant can change in the short time he'll have been PM.

 

[Dave Rogers]

In what way? Nothing very significant can change in the short time he'll have been PM.

We'll be better psychologically prepared. Until Boris took office, there was still hope. Now we're all resigned to the whole thing being a godawful catastrophe, so it'll be less of a shock when the roof falls in.

Dave

 

[Vixen]

One of the major exports the UK had is it's traditional status as a global financial hub. I read that status is now weakened due to Brexit, but even more so due to a no deal Brexit.

No, it's not a 'hub' (ugh) it's a global financial centre.