Cont: Brexit: Now What? Magic 8 Ball's up

[Arcade22]

Most consumer goods aren't made in America either way, they are made in China. What does the US have to sell to the UK? Agricultural goods, expensive health products?

Soybeans, milk, chlorinated chicken... whatever it takes to lower the trade deficit. The British people have fleeced America and its struggling farmers for too long, now it's time they paid what they owe America!

 

[Vixen]

He doesn't have to ignore a vote of no confidence. Leaving the EU on 31st October is the law, and a vote of no confidence doesn't change the law. The law allows the Prime Minister to request an extension, but there is no law that says a vote of no confidence forces the Prime Minister to do that.
There are various conventions about the timing of general elections following a vote of no confidence, but if the usual polling day of Thursday is to be retained, then the earliest possible vote of no confidence results in an earliest general election AFTER October 31st.
Then there is the convention that an outgoing government doesn't do anything significant during the general election campaign - but you can argue that both ways: certainly leaving the EU after a vote of no confidence intended to stop that would be significant; but it would also be significant to ignore the law passed by parliament requiring us to leave on 31st.

No, it's not 'the law', it is the legal situation at the moment.

 

[Vixen]

In this context "ignoring" means not resigning as Prime Minister.

The Fixed Term Parliament Act changed the rules. Previously losing a vote of no confidence meant an immediate election. Now the Government has 14 days for another vote of confidence before an election. If Boris Johnson doesn't resign as Prime Minister at the first vote of no confidence then he still has control of the government (but possibly not Parliament) and can ensure any election is past 31st October, and that no extension to the timetable happens.

Getting a new Prime Minister would probably involve the Queen intervening, which seems very very unlikely.

Might be life in the old girl yet.

 

[Vixen]

No

As I understand it there are 3 things which drive the timetable:

• votes of no confidence and the 2 weeks required between them
• "wash-up" session to clear Parliamentary business probably 1 -2 weeks
• election campaign IIRC minimum of 5 weeks

If Boris Johnson is still Prime Minister he John Bercow controls the timetable, and an election before 31st October is difficult. If he was trolling then call it for the 31st; polls close 10pm, leave EU 11pm and he will call MP's back from their summer breaks to sit until it parliament does his bidding.

FIFY

 

[ceptimus]

No, it's not 'the law', it is the legal situation at the moment.

Interesting disctintion. When is 'the law' ever not that?

Parliament passed a law - a large majority of MPs voted in favour - that said we must leave the EU on 29th March unless the PM requested an extension and the EU agreed to the request. May did request extensions, twice, and so the law now says the same about 31st October. To change the law, parliament has to pass new laws - a mere vote of the House of Commons can't do that - the new law proposal has to pass both houses. Most commentators agree that there won't be time for that process before Halloween.

 

[Vixen]

Interesting disctintion. When is 'the law' ever not that?

Parliament passed a law - a large majority of MPs voted in favour - that said we must leave the EU on 29th March unless the PM requested an extension and the EU agreed to the request. May did request extensions, twice, and so the law now says the same about 31st October. To change the law, parliament has to pass new laws - a mere vote of the House of Commons can't do that - the new law proposal has to pass both houses. Most commentators agree that there won't be time for that process before Halloween.

It doesn't become law until 31 October 2019. This means it can be changed in the meantime.

 

[theprestige]

The key assumption made is that Sinn Feinn wants to prevent a no-deal Brexit.



The most likely result of a hard Brexit that matters to Sinn Feinn is Irish reunification after a few years of chaos at no blame to them. Why would they throw away an asset like that?

Maybe it's not an asset? A unified Ireland probably doesn't have much use for a party like Sinn Feinn.

 

[a_unique_person]

One of the major exports the UK had is it's traditional status as a global financial hub. I read that status is now weakened due to Brexit, but even more so due to a no deal Brexit.

 

[toto]

Interesting disctintion. When is 'the law' ever not that?

Parliament passed a law - a large majority of MPs voted in favour - that said we must leave the EU on 29th March unless the PM requested an extension and the EU agreed to the request. May did request extensions, twice, and so the law now says the same about 31st October. To change the law, parliament has to pass new laws - a mere vote of the House of Commons can't do that - the new law proposal has to pass both houses. Most commentators agree that there won't be time for that process before Halloween.

According to the website commons library.parliament.uk it is the law. By googling :" is article 50 an act of parliament " I got the headline: "EU 'Exit day' is changed in UK law". Of course the law can be changed ,as in the heading above, but it is the law: you are correct.

 

[ceptimus]

Yes, the law can be changed, but unless the government wants to change it, there is very likely insufficient time before Halloween. There's no obvious way for the opposition to bring in and pass new legislation that quickly, even if a majority of MPs would support it.

 

[Lothian]

Yes, the law can be changed, but unless the government wants to change it, there is very likely insufficient time before Halloween. There's no obvious way for the opposition to bring in and pass new legislation that quickly, even if a majority of MPs would support it.

There are well over 100 bills that have had their 3rd reading in the same day as the first. Come on, did you not hear Boris? . Stop being a doubter, a doomster, a gloomster. Find your Can-do attitude. If the NI budget bill to prop up the coalition can be passed in a single day we can easily change the date in an existing bill.

 

[The Don]

In the event of a no deal, food firms want the rules that ordinarily protect consumers against companies working together to set prices relaxed....

The UK food industry has asked the government to waive aspects of competition law to allow firms to coordinate and direct supplies with each other after a no-deal Brexit.

The Food and Drink Federation (FDF) said it repeatedly asked ministers for clarity on a no-deal scenario.

Existing rules prohibit suppliers and retailers discussing supply or pricing.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49258852

 

[Lothian]

In the event of a no deal, food firms want the rules that ordinarily protect consumers against companies working together to set prices relaxed....



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49258852

Of course that is absolutely necessary. If there are food shortages it is only right that we encourage profiteering. How else will we reach our goal of a mad Max dystopia? Or we we trying to avoid that? Who cares. Sovereignty. Blue passports. Control of our borders.

 

[McHrozni]

Of course that is absolutely necessary. If there are food shortages it is only right that we encourage profiteering. How else will we reach our goal of a mad Max dystopia? Or we we trying to avoid that? Who cares. Sovereignty. Blue passports. Control of our borders.

I came up with an idea of what BJ might be trying to do:

1. Get a vote of no-confidence in for a fresh election to be called sometime in November or December of 2019. That's practically a given.
2. Do NOT secure another Brexit extension. Leave with no deal on October 31st.
3. Since a no-deal Brexit just happened, Brexit party dies a timely death. Remain vote is split among LibDems and Labour, plus other assorted parties. Win a majority that doesn't require DUP or anyone else.
4. Using the fact you now have a clear majority in the HOC quickly negotiate a Canada-style free trade deal with the EU, with a permanent customs border in the Irish sea. Retain power for 10+ years owning to the fact Labour was fatally compromised over Brexit yet remains strong enough to keep LibDems from ascending to power. Let Scotland go if possible, it will be a net loss of seats to Tories for a generation or more anyway. Focus on English nationalism and exceptionalism.

I'm not saying it's a good plan for the UK, but if your sole goal is to be the PM for two or more terms it makes an alarming deal of sense. The greatest weakness in the plan is actually point 2, if he is forced somehow to go to the EU to secure an extension and EU grants it despite his best efforts not to point 3 is in peril too. It might still work or might fail, it's a roll of the dice.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

I think this is a refresh/rehash of an article from a couple of years ago, but it highlights the extent of the uncertainty over Brexit, and especially a no-deal Brexit. In this case it's the possible effects on the music industry including orchestras:

"We've got orchestras that are going on tour in November who do not know what the work permit restrictions and extra costs are going to be in, say, France or Germany. In terms of their preparation, there are some very big unanswered questions."

Even if work permits are granted, he believes European concert halls may look elsewhere as "there's only so much they're prepared to spend on booking an orchestra".

"If we become more expensive [extra costs-wise] than a German or Italian orchestra then guess what? We're going to lose the work."

Or if you're running a festival:

One year on, festival director Chris Smith tells the BBC there is "no indication of what will happen in a no-deal fantasy land".

"From an artist perspective, we will be back in a situation where EU-based artists simply won't want to commit to travelling to the UK.

Or simply a jobbing musician trying to travel with their instrument:

Another obstacle touring musicians could face is having to pay for a permit, known as a carnet, for every instrument they take into Europe - to prove they are not trading them internationally.

<snip>

Believe it or not, some instruments taken into Europe by British musicians contain small amounts of "endangered species" like ivory and rosewood.

After Brexit these would need declaring, but the ABO claim they've been told key ports, including Dover, Calais and Holyhead, are not set up to inspect the necessary paperwork, meaning further delays or re-routed trips.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-49239002

This is just the tip of the iceberg for the music industry, one of hundreds or thousands of industries.....

"Sunny uplands", "No possible downside, only a considerable upside"

 

[The Don]

I came up with an idea of what BJ might be trying to do:

According to people close to him, Boris Johnson doesn't really do plans. He finds planning a chore and prefers instead to rely on instinct and react to new developments.

 

[a_unique_person]

According to people close to him, Boris Johnson doesn't really do plans. He finds planning a chore and prefers instead to rely on instinct and react to new developments.

I think he's just a useful idiot for the right wing of his party.

 

[Ethan Thane Athen]

According to people close to him, Boris Johnson doesn't really do plans. He finds planning a chore and prefers instead to rely on instinct and react to new developments.

Cripes just like Trump...

 

[McHrozni]

According to people close to him, Boris Johnson doesn't really do plans. He finds planning a chore and prefers instead to rely on instinct and react to new developments.

Thus sure sounds like him, sure. But BJ not alone in the whole thing, he has a select Brexit clowns crew around him, who advise him on what to do. It might not be him personally making the plan, it could also be that's what they collectively came up with.

It makes an alarming amount of sense if you think about it. EU already said a customs border in the Irish sea was fine, even prefferable to a UK-wide customs union. It was the DUP that blocked that variant of the WA, which would have at least better odds of passing. The other points are all just observations of reality - UKIP died when A50 was invoked, Brexit party has no policy other than a no-deal Brexit so there won't be many votes going that way. Labour is compromosed, perhaps fatally so. If it wasn't for the Brexit party Tories would've won that Wales by-election last week. Labour is fatally compromised over their ambigious Brexit stance, LibDems are still compromised by their alliance with Tories a decade ago. No other major parties could challenge the Tories outside of England.

In short, if I was in his shoes and my main goal was personal glory, that's what I'd do.

McHrozni

 

[GlennB]

I came up with an idea of what BJ might be trying to do:

1. Get a vote of no-confidence in for a fresh election to be called sometime in November or December of 2019. That's practically a given.
2. Do NOT secure another Brexit extension. Leave with no deal on October 31st.
3. Since a no-deal Brexit just happened, Brexit party dies a timely death. Remain vote is split among LibDems and Labour, plus other assorted parties. Win a majority that doesn't require DUP or anyone else.
4. Using the fact you now have a clear majority in the HOC quickly negotiate a Canada-style free trade deal with the EU, with a permanent customs border in the Irish sea. Retain power for 10+ years owning to the fact Labour was fatally compromised over Brexit yet remains strong enough to keep LibDems from ascending to power. Let Scotland go if possible, it will be a net loss of seats to Tories for a generation or more anyway. Focus on English nationalism and exceptionalism.

I'm not saying it's a good plan for the UK, but if your sole goal is to be the PM for two or more terms it makes an alarming deal of sense. The greatest weakness in the plan is actually point 2, if he is forced somehow to go to the EU to secure an extension and EU grants it despite his best efforts not to point 3 is in peril too. It might still work or might fail, it's a roll of the dice.

McHrozni

There's a lot to be said for that analysis, especially point 3. I'd say he's terrified of a GE with the Brexit party running, not least because his own seat would be in danger.

But the whole scheme is fraught with peril. What if the vonc happens quickly and he has, somehow, to stall the GE process with one trick or another? And then Brexit itself will immediately demonstrate the realities of post-Brexit life, realities that even Leavers have barely acknowledged, such as the lorry queues on the motorways and at the immigration desks in EU airports, import difficulties (etc etc etc), so a post-Brexit GE will leave him vulnerable.

I don't think he has a plan at all, and I strongly suspect the PMship is as much of a poisoned chalice as it has been for quite a while.

I hope