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Cont: Brexit: Now What? 9 Below Zero

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Lothian said:
Post brexit the first messages out of May's no 10 was "prepare for every possible brexit outcome"
After a few months that became "scrap all other options, work towards no deal with a contingency if we get any deal".
Boris then come in and the message was "scrap the contingency we are leaving without a deal on 31 Oct prepare only for that"
A week ago that became "scrap everything you have been doing on no deal, throw everything you have at our new deal"
A week later everyone is taking a breather. Purdah means it is all on ice. I don't doubt mid December there will be a new message 'scrap everything you have done to date and start working towards this.....'. It all is a great use of time and money.
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And in other news:

Scrap collection is up in the UK.​

:p
 
The Don said:
Well, ish.

I'll be voting Labour despite disagreeing with their Brexit stance to keep the Tories out.

Wyld Bird Seed's drummer will be Voting Conservative despite disagreeing with their Brexit stance to keep Corbyn out.
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Huh. Drummers, right?
 
The Don said:
The current policy as I understand it (but I could very well be wrong) is:

  • Jeremy Corbyn will negotiate a different deal with the EU - one that somehow manages to keep the UK in a customs union with the EU whilst allowing the UK to have separate trade deals with other countries (and doubtless other impossible things)
  • Labour would put their deal to the country in a referendum (though personally I think that Cobyn would renege on that if he got his deal)
  • Labour would campaign in favour of Corbyn's deal
  • If Corbyn was unable to negotiate a deal then he would revert to Boris Johnson's deal
  • This deal would be put to the country in a referendum
  • Labour would campaign against that deal

Labour are still officially a Brexit party, albeit one who will allegedly reconfirm with the country before doing anything irrevocable.



The thing is that our drummer is a "soft Remainer" (has no great love for the EU but recognises that being outside the EU on any terms is far worse for the UK than being in the EU) and yet is voting for the Conservatives (who plan to take the UK out of the EU in the most damaging way they can get away with) to prevent Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister. That doesn't make a great deal of sense to me.

In any case, both of our votes for pro-Brexit parties are despite our opposition to Brexit. Personally I'd rather vote for an anti-Brexit party but they are either not standing (SNP or one of the NI parties) or don't have a hope in hell of winning in my constituency (LibDem and Greens polled under 5% last time around) so it isn't really a Brexit referendum in any meaningful way because both major parties are pro-Brexit.
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Yes, I think that's pretty much it, but I don't have a problem with it.

Lexit is not possible, but Corbyn has said he'd offer a referendum with remain as an option. If it's a hung parliament, then that's even more likely.

What would amuse me would be if Corbyn does agree some sort of deal, then would the Tories campaign for Corbyn's deal, or campaign for remain?
 
SezMe said:
Lexit :confused:
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Labour version of Brexit.

Which as I understand it is leaving the EEA, abandoning the four freedoms but still remaining in a customs union with the EU and with greater alignment on workers rights and environmental protections than is being proposed by the Conservatives (a very low bar ;)).

The trouble is that Jeremy Corbyn wants to be able to negotiate separate trade deals, which is incompatible with customs union membership.

Lexit may be less economically damaging than no-deal or a Conservative deal, but it's still very damaging - and also impossible ;)
 
The Don said:
Labour version of Brexit.

Which as I understand it is leaving the EEA, abandoning the four freedoms but still remaining in a customs union with the EU and with greater alignment on workers rights and environmental protections than is being proposed by the Conservatives (a very low bar ;)).

The trouble is that Jeremy Corbyn wants to be able to negotiate separate trade deals, which is incompatible with customs union membership.

Lexit may be less economically damaging than no-deal or a Conservative deal, but it's still very damaging - and also impossible ;)
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Labour at least doesn't have the ideological baggage the Tories do. If it obtained a majority it could sign a trade deal with EU that would allow for trade almost as free as a customs union and maintain a customs union for NI.

Yes, there would still be necessary checks and delays, but with a sufficiently long implementation period (not until the end of next year) those could be mitigated well enough.

Such an arrangement is at least theoretically possible.

McHrozni
 
McHrozni said:
Labour at least doesn't have the ideological baggage the Tories do. If it obtained a majority it could sign a trade deal with EU that would allow for trade almost as free as a customs union and maintain a customs union for NI.

Yes, there would still be necessary checks and delays, but with a sufficiently long implementation period (not until the end of next year) those could be mitigated well enough.

Such an arrangement is at least theoretically possible.

McHrozni
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I've highlighted the key word. If the UK isn't in a customs union then Labour would have failed to have delivered their promise and IMO being almost in a customs union is like being almost pregnant, it's meaningless.

Unless Labour goes the extra mile and drops their demands for separate trade deals, economically their deal will be just as damaging as the Conservatives' (though there may be less damage to workers' rights and environmental protections).

Neither Labour nor the Conservatives seem to give a stuff about 80% of the UK economy, the service sector :(
 
The Don said:
I've highlighted the key word. If the UK isn't in a customs union then Labour would have failed to have delivered their promise and IMO being almost in a customs union is like being almost pregnant, it's meaningless.
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Well, no.

Being almost pregnant is an oximoron, almost being in the customs union means you have a wide-ranging free trade deal that allows for quite significant trade with few hinderances.

Not as free as in a customs union, but quite close. It's the now-proverbial "3.6 Röntgen an hour."

Unless Labour goes the extra mile and drops their demands for separate trade deals, economically their deal will be just as damaging as the Conservatives' (though there may be less damage to workers' rights and environmental protections).
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The advantage of the Labour deal is there is no Gandalf standing between it and ratification.

Neither Labour nor the Conservatives seem to give a stuff about 80% of the UK economy, the service sector :(
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As a continental I keep mum about that. You probably can sumarise why.

McHrozni
 
"Almost customs union" is a lot like a Norway style deal. It suffers from some problems. You don't get frictionless trade and you don't get a say in the European Parliament. The latter isn't that big of a problem for Norway since we wouldn't have much of a say anyway, but for the British, who had such a big say there, it's just stupid to give up that much for so little gain. Also, I wonder what they are intending to sell worldwide to make it all worthwhile?
 
Ulf Nereng said:
"Almost customs union" is a lot like a Norway style deal. It suffers from some problems. You don't get frictionless trade and you don't get a say in the European Parliament. The latter isn't that big of a problem for Norway since we wouldn't have much of a say anyway, but for the British, who had such a big say there, it's just stupid to give up that much for so little gain. Also, I wonder what they are intending to sell worldwide to make it all worthwhile?
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Top British exports;

http://www.worldstopexports.com/united-kingdoms-top-exports/

Machinery including computers: US$72.3 billion (14.8% of total exports)
Vehicles: $54.6 billion (11.2%)
Gems, precious metals: $47.4 billion (9.7%)
Mineral fuels including oil: $43.7 billion (9%)
Pharmaceuticals: $30 billion (6.2%)
Electrical machinery, equipment: $28.8 billion (5.9%)
Optical, technical, medical apparatus: $19.1 billion (3.9%)
Aircraft, spacecraft: $19 billion (3.9%)
Plastics, plastic articles: $12.3 billion (2.5%)
Organic chemicals: $11.3 billion (2.3%)

Another is whisky exports at $6.7 billion.
 
Whisky is actually the only British export that I am certain that I occasionally buy! :p

But if that becomes more expensive after a no-deal Brexit I'll probably take a good look at Irish and Canadian alternatives!
 
Ulf Nereng said:
Whisky is actually the only British export that I am certain that I occasionally buy! :p

But if that becomes more expensive after a no-deal Brexit I'll probably take a good look at Irish and Canadian alternatives!
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25% tariff on Whisky entering the EU. That will teach the Scots turkeys a lesson for not supporting a Christmas Brexit.
 
I think the UK services industry, finance and advertising and media earns more for the UK than that list of manufactured items combined.

Meanwhile, trending on twitter, is a video of Johnson extolling the virtues of freedom of movement and open market access to NI with regards to the rest of the UK.

But, that is what we had with the EU that he wants rid of and his deal means there are restrictions between the UK and NI.

There is a serious disconnect in Johnson head between his imagined reality and actual reality.
 
Ulf Nereng said:
"Almost customs union" is a lot like a Norway style deal. It suffers from some problems. You don't get frictionless trade and you don't get a say in the European Parliament. The latter isn't that big of a problem for Norway since we wouldn't have much of a say anyway, but for the British, who had such a big say there, it's just stupid to give up that much for so little gain. Also, I wonder what they are intending to sell worldwide to make it all worthwhile?
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The farmers around here love their British tractors.
 
Nessie said:
Top British exports;

http://www.worldstopexports.com/united-kingdoms-top-exports/

Machinery including computers: US$72.3 billion (14.8% of total exports)
Vehicles: $54.6 billion (11.2%)
Gems, precious metals: $47.4 billion (9.7%)
Mineral fuels including oil: $43.7 billion (9%)
Pharmaceuticals: $30 billion (6.2%)
Electrical machinery, equipment: $28.8 billion (5.9%)
Optical, technical, medical apparatus: $19.1 billion (3.9%)
Aircraft, spacecraft: $19 billion (3.9%)
Plastics, plastic articles: $12.3 billion (2.5%)
Organic chemicals: $11.3 billion (2.3%)

Another is whisky exports at $6.7 billion.
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Would imagine machinery and vehicles are going to take a big hit post Brexit. Weird that we have such a large precious metal/gems export as wasn't aware of having much here so presumably it's pass through?

Of course whisky and oil might well be about to say sayonara.
 
Darat said:
Johnson appears to be rather confused about the deal "he" negotiated, just a small detail about customs and NI..... BBC News - General election 2019: Boris Johnson 'does not understand' deal trade checks
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-50352678
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Johnson says absolutely anything that will get him through the next minute, there's as much forethought and planning as a wind chime in whirlwind.
 
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