Cont: Brexit: Now What? 9 Below Zero

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

EU agreed to extent Brexit until January 31st.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50205603

I have a ditch to let if mr. Johnson still perfers that option. It's free for him to use, so long as he gets his ass to it himself.

McHrozni

Just needs to be formalised. Heard some people say that BoJo may not bring it back to parliament to get it signed off but I think that is a red herring because if the EU change the date in law at their end i believe it automatically applies to the UK.

 

[McHrozni]

The tide turns.

JUST IN: EU agrees to #Brexit extension until January 31 - Tusk (Reuters)

I expressed a view early this year that if Brexit is delayed beyond July 2019 there most likely be either no Brexit at all or a feather Norway-style Brexit at most.

Thus far I have no reason to change my assertion. Every single month approximately 0.03% of the electorate is replaced with younger, pro-EU voters. Every single month a few more people realize just how lost a cause Brexit is. There will be another election and should forming the government become impossible without the support of one of the Bremain parties, Brexit will be buried within a referendum (or two).

It will periodically rise as a zombie for some time to come of course, but not for a decade or so.

There's just one hurdle left, replace the porrige-eater and that number may become zero.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

EU agreed to extent Brexit until January 31st.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50205603

I have a ditch to let if mr. Johnson still perfers that option. It's free for him to use, so long as he gets his ass to it himself.

McHrozni

I'm sure Boris will insist that he didn't ask for an extension, he sent an unsigned photocopy of the relevant page of the Benn act together with a second letter saying that he had been forced against will to do so.

 

[McHrozni]

I'm sure Boris will insist that he didn't ask for an extension, he sent an unsigned photocopy of the relevant page of the Benn act together with a second letter saying that he had been forced against will to do so.

I know. I'm still offering. I'll even provide a dull knife if he asks.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

The tide turns.

JUST IN: EU agrees to #Brexit extension until January 31 - Tusk (Reuters)

Not sure that there is a fundamental shift.

The Conservatives are still pro-Brexit even if (especially if ?) it results in no-deal.

Labour are still officially a pro-Brexit party.

If there is a general election before 31 January then it's almost certain that the largest single party will be a pro-Brexit party and that a no-deal Brexit is still the default outcome of the Brexit process.

Current polls show that the Conservatives would comfortably win the election and I think their lead will increase once the electorate come to understand Labour's Brexit position.

 

[Vixen]

I'm sure Boris will insist that he didn't ask for an extension, he sent an unsigned photocopy of the relevant page of the Benn act together with a second letter saying that he had been forced against will to do so.

Yeah, so much for 'do or die' and the 50p pieces minted with 31 October embossed on them. Poor Priti Patel will have to smirk on the other side of her face about 'Freedom of Movement [of Europeans] ending 31 October).

 

[McHrozni]

Not sure that there is a fundamental shift.

The Conservatives are still pro-Brexit even if (especially if ?) it results in no-deal.

Labour are still officially a pro-Brexit party.

If there is a general election before 31 January then it's almost certain that the largest single party will be a pro-Brexit party and that a no-deal Brexit is still the default outcome of the Brexit process.

Current polls show that the Conservatives would comfortably win the election and I think their lead will increase once the electorate come to understand Labour's Brexit position.

This is the hurdle I was talking about, yes. There is no credible, nation-wide opposition to Brexit.

Still, there is still enough time for Labour to change their positions somewhat.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

In other news, no deal traffic management arrangements are in place:

A plan to manage traffic congestion on a Kent motorway has come into force as part of plans for a no-deal Brexit.

Operation Brock sees one side of the M20 being used only by HGVs heading to cross-Channel ports.

All other traffic is restricted to a contraflow system on the opposite carriageway.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-50205652

Maybe Dominic Cummings has a cunning plan to ensure a no-deal exit on the 31st after all.

 

[The Don]

This is the hurdle I was talking about, yes. There is no credible, nation-wide opposition to Brexit.

Still, there is still enough time for Labour to change their positions somewhat.

McHrozni

Momentum won't allow it and at the moment they're in charge of the Labour Party. The situation has been made worse by the fact that "moderate" members of the party like me and almost all of the Labour Party members I personally know have left or been driven out of the party. What's left is a Spartist rump.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Labour are still officially a pro-Brexit party.

I thought their position was to negotiate a new deal and then campaign against it in a referendum?

 

[Vixen]

Not sure that there is a fundamental shift.

The Conservatives are still pro-Brexit even if (especially if ?) it results in no-deal.

Labour are still officially a pro-Brexit party.

If there is a general election before 31 January then it's almost certain that the largest single party will be a pro-Brexit party and that a no-deal Brexit is still the default outcome of the Brexit process.

Current polls show that the Conservatives would comfortably win the election and I think their lead will increase once the electorate come to understand Labour's Brexit position.

I don't think it's certain at all. Many of these opinion polls are only as good as the day it was carried out. Even the DM had to concede that '50%' of the public no longer want Brexit and you know how picky and choosy it is about what it puts in its headlines.

Some of the poll responders are self-selected political 'activists' (in that they take an interest in influencing or being well-informed) others do not come from a broad spectrum of the country's constituencies (remember: it is not proportional to number of population) or they are on-the spot polls like the DAILY EXPRESS who invite readers to take part. In a right-wing rag, quelle surprise its readership has far right views.

The last poll I saw (no idea how accurate it is likely to be) had the Conservatives on a 15 point lead. BoJo needs to find a majority of 43 to ensure an effective government that will pass his Bills. Fifteen points can change overnight.

Some people confudge Brexit and a General Election: whilst they may be one, they might vote otherwise in a GE than in a referendum. In the last local elections, Liberals and Greens did stupendously well and that could be said to be anti-Brexiteers registering a protest vote. That may change in a 'proper' election.

A week is a long time in politics.

 

[The Don]

I thought their position was to negotiate a new deal and then campaign against it in a referendum?

It may appear that way but Jeremy Corbyn will certainly campaign in favour of his deal, as will Momentum and many of the unions.

This of course presupposes that Jeremy Corbyn is able to negotiate a deal where Labour remains in a customs union with the EU whilst at the same time being able to negotiate separate trade deals with EU trading partners - cloud cuckooland in other words.

 

[McHrozni]

Momentum won't allow it and at the moment they're in charge of the Labour Party. The situation has been made worse by the fact that "moderate" members of the party like me and almost all of the Labour Party members I personally know have left or been driven out of the party. What's left is a Spartist rump.

All they need to do is pick up enough seats to ensure it is not possible to form a government without at least one of the following: LibDem, SNP, Cymru, Green or Labour; or any other anti-Brexit parties that might crop up in the next couple of months. If they do that Brexit will get another referendum, with Bremain as an option and it's hard to see how Bremain might not win this time.

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-a-second-eu-referendum-were-held-today-how-would-you-vote/

Bremain 49-40 Leave in the latest poll, though it's usually narrower than this but outside of margin of error. When pitted to pick either this Brexit deal, no-deal Brexit or Bremain, Bremain is the clear favorite.

Brexit can only win with a fanthom deal that doesn't exist on the table.

McHrozni

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

It may appear that way but Jeremy Corbyn will certainly campaign in favour of his deal, as will Momentum and many of the unions.

This of course presupposes that Jeremy Corbyn is able to negotiate a deal where Labour remains in a customs union with the EU whilst at the same time being able to negotiate separate trade deals with EU trading partners - cloud cuckooland in other words.

Yeah his deal was as much BS as anyone elses but that only surely means that any referendum on it is more likely to result in Remain.

I was only querying that Labour are 'officially' leave. I think they are now 'officially' at worst 'confused'

 

[The Don]

I don't think it's certain at all. Many of these opinion polls are only as good as the day it was carried out. Even the DM had to concede that '50%' of the public no longer want Brexit and you know how picky and choosy it is about what it puts in its headlines.

Some of the poll responders are self-selected political 'activists' (in that they take an interest in influencing or being well-informed) others do not come from a broad spectrum of the country's constituencies (remember: it is not proportional to number of population) or they are on-the spot polls like the DAILY EXPRESS who invite readers to take part. In a right-wing rag, quelle surprise its readership has far right views.

The last poll I saw (no idea how accurate it is likely to be) had the Conservatives on a 15 point lead. BoJo needs to find a majority of 43 to ensure an effective government that will pass his Bills. Fifteen points can change overnight.

Some people confudge Brexit and a General Election: whilst they may be one, they might vote otherwise in a GE than in a referendum. In the last local elections, Liberals and Greens did stupendously well and that could be said to be anti-Brexiteers registering a protest vote. That may change in a 'proper' election.

A week is a long time in politics.

A fifteen point lead is unlikely to evaporate in the polls IMO, especially if it's a lead over the Labour Party who are, if anything, in worse disarray over Brexit than the Conservatives.

The LibDems and Greens did do relatively well in local elections but with the UK's FPTP system, the Greens in particular are unlikely to win more than a handful of seats. The Conservatives and Labour are almost certain to be the two largest parties, by a considerable margin.

The wild card is the Brexit Party. If they choose to stand against the Conservatives and if they manage to poach a significant proportion of Conservative support then they could influence the outcome. The Conservatives will try to spike their guns by being as right wing as possible.

 

[Vixen]

It may appear that way but Jeremy Corbyn will certainly campaign in favour of his deal, as will Momentum and many of the unions.

This of course presupposes that Jeremy Corbyn is able to negotiate a deal where Labour remains in a customs union with the EU whilst at the same time being able to negotiate separate trade deals with EU trading partners - cloud cuckooland in other words.

But first, Parliament needs to approve the new extension day (say 'aye') and then vote on the 12 December GE (or is it the 9th? As long as it is not Fri 13 Dec 2019, equally contentious for both pagans who love this date and Swedes/Finns who celebrate St Lucia's day).

 

[Vixen]

A fifteen point lead is unlikely to evaporate in the polls IMO, especially if it's a lead over the Labour Party who are, if anything, in worse disarray over Brexit than the Conservatives.

The LibDems and Greens did do relatively well in local elections but with the UK's FPTP system, the Greens in particular are unlikely to win more than a handful of seats. The Conservatives and Labour are almost certain to be the two largest parties, by a considerable margin.

The wild card is the Brexit Party. If they choose to stand against the Conservatives and if they manage to poach a significant proportion of Conservative support then they could influence the outcome. The Conservatives will try to spike their guns by being as right wing as possible.

The stand-off between Nigel 'this deal is not Brexit' Farage and BoJo could indeed be a problem for the Conservatives as the Brexit Party will steal some much needed Tory votes. The two parties are now at loggerheads.

 

[sphenisc]

I'm sure Boris will insist that he didn't ask for an extension, he a senior diplomat sent an unsigned photocopy of the relevant page of the Benn act together with a second letter saying that he had been forced against will to do so.

FTFY

 

[McHrozni]

A fifteen point lead is unlikely to evaporate in the polls IMO, especially if it's a lead over the Labour Party who are, if anything, in worse disarray over Brexit than the Conservatives.

Unlikely sure, but if Labour takes a survivable Brexit stance it might work.

Survivable in this context might mean "the Conservatives have done everything wrong, we pledge a referendum pitting this deal against Bremain, with the intent of revisiting the question in five years' time".

Assuming leaving the EU is a position Labour as a party (porrige-eater aside) holds as means to hold power and not as some sort of an ideological principle, I think it might work.

In this context "working" means working well enough to give the UK another hung parliament.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

All they need to do is pick up enough seats to ensure it is not possible to form a government without at least one of the following: LibDem, SNP, Cymru, Green or Labour; or any other anti-Brexit parties that might crop up in the next couple of months. If they do that Brexit will get another referendum, with Bremain as an option and it's hard to see how Bremain might not win this time.

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-a-second-eu-referendum-were-held-today-how-would-you-vote/

Bremain 49-40 Leave in the latest poll, though it's usually narrower than this but outside of margin of error. When pitted to pick either this Brexit deal, no-deal Brexit or Bremain, Bremain is the clear favorite.

Brexit can only win with a fanthom deal that doesn't exist on the table.

McHrozni

The trouble is that the general election won't just break on Leave/Remain lines. The two Conservative voting members of Wyld Bird Seed were soft Remainers (neither was particularly enthusiastic about the EU but recognised how damaging Brexit would be economically), but they will absolutely be voting Conservative in the next election. From their perspective, a no-deal Brexit is less damaging to the country than a Corbyn-led government.

I can see that pattern playing out time and again in the election.

Please remember that Labour is still a pro-Brexit party. Their intention is to negotiate a new deal and then win a referendum relating to that deal.