Cont: Brexit: Now What? 9 Below Zero

[The Don]

Unlikely sure, but if Labour takes a survivable Brexit stance it might work.

The trouble with this is that the two biggest blocs within the party, the majority of the unions and Momentum are staunchly pro-Brexit so I don't see where the impetus for any such change would come from, and it would need Jeremy Corbyn to be deposed as leader, not something any party would wish in the weeks leading up to a general election. Add onto this the MPs who fear (wrongly IMO) that taking a Bremain stance will case them to lose in their Leave-voting constituencies and IMO it becomes vanishingly remote.

You're right that IF Labour had a decent Brexit policy, then things would be quite different but I cannot see how the Labour Party gets from here to there.

 

[McHrozni]

The trouble with this is that the two biggest blocs within the party, the majority of the unions and Momentum are staunchly pro-Brexit so I don't see where the impetus for any such change would come from, and it would need Jeremy Corbyn to be deposed as leader, not something any party would wish in the weeks leading up to a general election. Add onto this the MPs who fear (wrongly IMO) that taking a Bremain stance will case them to lose in their Leave-voting constituencies and IMO it becomes vanishingly remote.

You're right that IF Labour had a decent Brexit policy, then things would be quite different but I cannot see how the Labour Party gets from here to there.

A decent policy right now that might be sustainable to both blocs is "Tories screwed it up completely, we need to reset the whole procedure; revoke A50 now and hold another referendum five years from now".

This should be survivable, IF Labour Brexiteers are such because they're convinced Brexit is good for UK and not because they're stooges (or useful idiots) of the Kremlin.

I'm not entirely sure that's the case for all of them, but it just needs to be true for enough to make the shift.

McHrozni

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

But first, Parliament needs to approve the new extension day

I don't think they do

 

[ceptimus]

You are wrong and records show you to be so. Before Theresa May's disastrous premiership most governments had vanishingly small amounts of Bills or motions rejected.

You are wrong saying that I am. The point I was making is that there have very rarely been minority governments in the UK - so the parties are not used to working in a consensual manner.

The only reason we didn't have an election immediately Boris lost his majority is down to the fixed term parliament act recently introduced by Cameron. If it wasn't for the woeful showing in the opinion polls of the Labour party we would have had an election anyway. It's incredible how badly the opposition are polling, given the inability of the present government to govern.

 

[The Don]

OMFG, now there won't be enough pigs in blankets......

Pigs in blankets and other festive meal treats might be in short supply this Christmas, the British Meat Processors Association has warned.

It says 60% of the labour force in UK meat plants comes from other countries and the industry is not attracting enough seasonal EU workers.

Its chief executive, Nick Allen, told the BBC that wrapping cocktail sausages in bacon was done by hand.

He said the job was "fiddly and hard to mechanise".

At the same time, the British Poultry Council warned that "finding sufficient labour is becoming a massive challenge for the poultry meat sector as the uncertainty around Brexit is prompting many of our workers to seek jobs in other countries".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50205951

No downside, only a considerable upside

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

All they need to do is pick up enough seats to ensure it is not possible to form a government without at least one of the following: LibDem, SNP, Cymru, Green or Labour; or any other anti-Brexit parties that might crop up in the next couple of months. If they do that Brexit will get another referendum, with Bremain as an option and it's hard to see how Bremain might not win this time.

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-a-second-eu-referendum-were-held-today-how-would-you-vote/

Bremain 49-40 Leave in the latest poll, though it's usually narrower than this but outside of margin of error. When pitted to pick either this Brexit deal, no-deal Brexit or Bremain, Bremain is the clear favorite.

Brexit can only win with a fanthom deal that doesn't exist on the table.

McHrozni

Of course a hung parliament could mean we end up back where we are today which seems to present the real threat of a no-deal exit by mistake.

 

[ceptimus]

The reason it was three days earlier than Johnson's proposed date is that it would prevent him from having the time to push his Brexit deal through before the election.

I don't see how he could ever 'push it through' given his non-majority, whether he had three days extra or not.

 

[McHrozni]

Of course a hung parliament could mean we end up back where we are today which seems to present the real threat of a no-deal exit by mistake.

True, but the longer this goes on the more obvious it is another referendum is the only way out.

Right now there is still a slim possibility an election will produce a Brexitard majority that will either ratify the deal or else leave the EU with no deal. After an election - if such a majority is not reached - the only way forward is another referendum. At that point UK will have tried and failed with everything else so it might as well try the referendum.

McHrozni

 

[abaddon]

I don't see how he could ever 'push it through' given his non-majority, whether he had three days extra or not.

No deal Brexit is the legal default. BoJo does not have to "push anything through", he simply has to stall long enough that the default happens. Parliament is not having that. This is not rocket magic.

 

[Vixen]

I don't think they do

I believe they do. Protocol.

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

I don't see how he could ever 'push it through' given his non-majority, whether he had three days extra or not.

Whether you can see it or not is irrelevant to whether or not it was their motivation.

And, indeed, to whether that was Johnson's motivation in rejecting it.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I believe they do. Protocol.

Protocol schmotocol. Once the EU ratifies the extension it is law and the Art 50 process is officially updated with the new date. Parliament doesn't have to do anything except for neatness sake to match UK law with EU law. That's what happened last time we extended.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I don't see how he could ever 'push it through' given his non-majority, whether he had three days extra or not.

He managed to get his dogdirt deal past the last hurdle without a majority so he might have been able to get enough Labour brainless idiots to pass his deal.

Of course the logic is senseless - we can't get my deal passed so we need an election, so pass my deal and then we will have an election - but that hasn't stopped Brexiteers so far. The whole thing has been senseless since day one.

 

[Nessie]

A fifteen point lead is unlikely to evaporate in the polls IMO, especially if it's a lead over the Labour Party who are, if anything, in worse disarray over Brexit than the Conservatives.

The LibDems and Greens did do relatively well in local elections but with the UK's FPTP system, the Greens in particular are unlikely to win more than a handful of seats. The Conservatives and Labour are almost certain to be the two largest parties, by a considerable margin.

The wild card is the Brexit Party. If they choose to stand against the Conservatives and if they manage to poach a significant proportion of Conservative support then they could influence the outcome. The Conservatives will try to spike their guns by being as right wing as possible.

The other potential wild cards are the SNP wiping out all opposition in Scotland, the DUP getting the heave in NI in favour of remain parties and Plaid Cymru getting more seats.

I think that there is little to no chance of any one party being able to form a majority.

 

[The Don]

The other potential wild cards are the SNP wiping out all opposition in Scotland, the DUP getting the heave in NI in favour of remain parties and Plaid Cymru getting more seats.

I think that there is little to no chance of any one party being able to form a majority.

I'm pretty sure that the DUP will still be the largest unionist party in NI, not least because their supporters are already ardently pro-Brexit and their seats are gerrymandered in.

Plaid and the SNP could make significant gains but England still has the vast majority of the seats. Either the Conservatives or Labour will have the largest number of seats (even if they don't manage to achieve a majority) and both parties are pro-Brexit.

 

[Ian Osborne]

OMFG, now there won't be enough pigs in blankets......

It really is quite sad that people will struggle to do them themselves. How much culinary expertise does it take?

 

[The Don]

It really is quite sad that people will struggle to do them themselves. How much culinary expertise does it take?

More than some people have, or want to apply. From personal experience I can say 60 pigs in blankets is quite a faff.

Then again Greggs has been stockpiling ingredients including sausage meat so unless there's going to be a new version of pigs in blankets post-Brexit - maybe turnips wrapped in cabbage - lack of culinary experience may not be the only issue.

 

[Dave Rogers]

Either the Conservatives or Labour will have the largest number of seats (even if they don't manage to achieve a majority) and both parties are pro-Brexit.

The Brexits the two parties are pro, however, have virtually nothing in common with each other, so I suspect there's no more danger of them working together on Brexit than on everything else.

Dave

 

[ponderingturtle]

The Brexits the two parties are pro, however, have virtually nothing in common with each other, so I suspect there's no more danger of them working together on Brexit than on everything else.

Dave

And why no deal is the only possible way out of this.

 

[The Don]

The Brexits the two parties are pro, however, have virtually nothing in common with each other, so I suspect there's no more danger of them working together on Brexit than on everything else.

Dave

Oh I agree, they won't work together - they will do their best to frustrate each other's Brexit plans but equally neither will do anything to prevent Brexit - including making moves to ensure that a no-deal is no longer the default.

Indeed, if a bill to revoke article 50 were to make it to a vote, the official position of both parties would be to vote against it.

IMO the real fear is crashing out with default no-deal terms.