Archie Gemmill Goal
Banned
- Joined
- Nov 18, 2015
- Messages
- 8,324
Just in basic terms that looks like both the Lib-Dems and BP gaining, at the expense of Labour, the Greens, Plaid, and Others. That said, Wales and NI are still swamped in the English Regions. I wouldn't accept the apparent implication that Plaid would not get any seats, and that there would only be one "Other" in NI, given that the only contenders are SF, UUP, DUP, and possibly SDLP.
Overall this just seems to be nibbling at the edges, with the openly-Remain parties combined still coming close to matching BP. In the middle, the Conservatives as only half as popular as Labour. If it's those wanting a hard Brexit versus a soft or no Brexit, the latter are the clear majority.
Quick back of the fag packet calc... if PC is 4% of a combined Midlands/Wales that's probably about 12% of just Wales but not sure if the sample is weighted correctly between Wales and Midlands. Most polls are putting them around 15% so they should get a seat in Wales. Although something odd appears to be going on in the polls between Labour and Brexit so it's possible that Brexit end up with 2 MEPs but even then it would probably be Lab and PC who get the other 2.
The poll success of Brexit Party is testament to the stupidity of people and the power of getting your face in the media constantly.