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Cont: Brexit: Now What? 7th heaven...

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Just in basic terms that looks like both the Lib-Dems and BP gaining, at the expense of Labour, the Greens, Plaid, and Others. That said, Wales and NI are still swamped in the English Regions. I wouldn't accept the apparent implication that Plaid would not get any seats, and that there would only be one "Other" in NI, given that the only contenders are SF, UUP, DUP, and possibly SDLP.

Overall this just seems to be nibbling at the edges, with the openly-Remain parties combined still coming close to matching BP. In the middle, the Conservatives as only half as popular as Labour. If it's those wanting a hard Brexit versus a soft or no Brexit, the latter are the clear majority.

Quick back of the fag packet calc... if PC is 4% of a combined Midlands/Wales that's probably about 12% of just Wales but not sure if the sample is weighted correctly between Wales and Midlands. Most polls are putting them around 15% so they should get a seat in Wales. Although something odd appears to be going on in the polls between Labour and Brexit so it's possible that Brexit end up with 2 MEPs but even then it would probably be Lab and PC who get the other 2.

The poll success of Brexit Party is testament to the stupidity of people and the power of getting your face in the media constantly.
 
There are some interesting details when comparing how people intend to vote next week compared to how they did at the Referendum and the 2017 General Election. Of Remain voters, 62% are going for the openly-Remain parties this time, but incedibly 22% are supporting Labour, and 9% the Conservatives. Only 4% are going BP, which undermines the Leave supporters' mantra that lots of Remainers have change their minds. In contrast, 74% of Leave voters are backing BP or UKIP, but 9% now favour openly-Remain parties. That would suggest that more Leavers have switched than Remainers.

In the case of 2017 GE voters (which does not include SNP, PC, or NI), those most loyally sticking with the same party are the Lib-Dems (63%), and the Greens (62%), yet both have lost an equal percentage to BP (12%); there have been some switches from Lib-Dem to Green (9%), or vice versa (14%). Previous UKIP voters are either staying that way (14%) or have switched to BP (73%). A whooping 62% of Tory voters are backing BP, with only 20% staying loyal. Labour is clinging on to 35%, with the main switches being to the Lib-Dems (21%), Greens (16%), or BP (14%).
 
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There are some interesting details when comparing how people intend to vote next week compared to how they did at the Referendum and the 2017 General Election. Of Remain voters, 62% are going for the openly-Remain parties this time, but incedibly 22% are supporting Labour, and 9% the Conservatives. Only 4% are going BP, which undermines the Leave supporters' mantra that lots of Remainers have change their minds. In contrast, 74% of Leave voters are backing BP or UKIP, but 9% now favour openly-Remain parties. That would suggest that more Leavers have switched than Remainers.

In the case of 2017 GE voters (which does not include SNP, PC, or NI), those most loyally sticking with the same party are the Lib-Dems (63%), and the Greens (62%), yet both have lost an equal percentage to BP (12%); there have been some switches from Lib-Dem to Green (9%), or vice versa (14%). Previous UKIP voters are either staying that way (14%) or have switched to BP (73%). A whooping 62% of Tory voters are backing BP, with only 20% staying loyal. Labour is clinging on to 35%, with the main switches being to the Lib-Dems (21%), Greens (16%), or BP (14%).

Looking at the breakdown i noticed that the numbers seem light on Remainers. Only 43% of respondents favour staying in the EU. Which either means preferences have moved or more likely the sampling is a bit off on the split. Of course the Not Sures are mixing that up a bit too. Ironic that the most popular party amongst not sures is Labour! :)

Brexit Party support correlates almost perfectly with age and inversely with education. If you are old and thick you will vote for them!

Labour support is highest amongst the very young and those who don't really follow politics which is telling, I think.

People who support leaving look less likely to vote than those who want to remain (although later on it looks like they claim to be more certain to vote) and there are more don't knows amongst remainers presumably because they are weighing up the options for tactical voting?
 
Looking at the breakdown i noticed that the numbers seem light on Remainers. Only 43% of respondents favour staying in the EU. Which either means preferences have moved or more likely the sampling is a bit off on the split. Of course the Not Sures are mixing that up a bit too. Ironic that the most popular party amongst not sures is Labour! :)

Brexit Party support correlates almost perfectly with age and inversely with education. If you are old and thick you will vote for them!

Labour support is highest amongst the very young and those who don't really follow politics which is telling, I think.

People who support leaving look less likely to vote than those who want to remain (although later on it looks like they claim to be more certain to vote) and there are more don't knows amongst remainers presumably because they are weighing up the options for tactical voting?


I resemble that remark.

North of the Border, it would be easy. The SNP is the largest functional party in Westminster.
 
I resemble that remark.

North of the Border, it would be easy. The SNP is the largest functional party in Westminster.

It's still slightly tricky in Scotland as well as there is a balance between SNP and Green that is hard to predict. It is probably easier to get 3 SNP and 1 Green MEP than it is to get 4 SNP but you have to second guess how other people are going to vote too which is pretty impossible.

I'm not in Scotland right now but I joined the SNP again last week anyway.
 
Looking at the breakdown i noticed that the numbers seem light on Remainers. Only 43% of respondents favour staying in the EU. Which either means preferences have moved or more likely the sampling is a bit off on the split. Of course the Not Sures are mixing that up a bit too. Ironic that the most popular party amongst not sures is Labour! :)

If you exclude the Don't Knows, 47% favour Remain, 32% No Deal, 14% Alternative Deal, and 7% May's Deal. Faced with a binary Remain/Do Deal Leave choice, it's doubtful that everyone who wants a deal would want to leave without one.

Brexit Party support correlates almost perfectly with age and inversely with education. If you are old and thick you will vote for them!

Labour support is highest amongst the very young and those who don't really follow politics which is telling, I think.

Also, Green, Lib-Dem, and SNP, support is younger, but surprisingly most of the rest seem more level. No surprises with the rather limited Social Grade section.

What does seem odd is the "Attention to Politics" section. It's mostly what you would expect, but the pattern with BP supporters is the exact opposite of UKIP and the Conservatives (and Labour, for that matter). I suspect that this is actually a problem with people self-reporting, and that by "Attention to Politics" BP supporters actually mean taking too much notice of (what they don't know) is disinformation about the issue.
 
What does seem odd is the "Attention to Politics" section. It's mostly what you would expect, but the pattern with BP supporters is the exact opposite of UKIP and the Conservatives (and Labour, for that matter). I suspect that this is actually a problem with people self-reporting, and that by "Attention to Politics" BP supporters actually mean taking too much notice of (what they don't know) is disinformation about the issue.

Indeed, I think you are exactly spot on with that. I noticed that too, that BP supporters claim to pay a huge amount of attention to politics but agree that it is probably 1) Just blustering that they know what they are on about and 2) Paying attention to ********

For the same reason I also imagine the 'I will definitely vote' percentage is exaggerated for BP.
 
I noticed NF (telling initials those I just realised) in Edinburgh calling on 'true nationalists' to vote for his party and talk about independence later.

A cunning mix of ethnocentric xenophobia and good old fashioned Unionist bait and switch.
 
Indeed, I think you are exactly spot on with that. I noticed that too, that BP supporters claim to pay a huge amount of attention to politics but agree that it is probably 1) Just blustering that they know what they are on about and 2) Paying attention to ********

It also explains why they so many of those who seem to think No Deal is such a good idea support them or UKIP!

For the same reason I also imagine the 'I will definitely vote' percentage is exaggerated for BP.

All fingers and toes crossed....
 
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A McDonalds in Edinburgh adjacent to NF's rally was told to stop selling milkshakes by the police today, so Burger King tweeted that they are selling them all weekend, and now (mostly) American alt-right Twitter has gone into meltdown!
 
Of course, one problem with YouGov's results - even the detailed ones - is that the data is arranged vertically by category (e.g. Brexit Prefence, Age, Social Grade, etc.) against voting intention. Thus it shows, for example, what percentage of those favouring a No Deal intend voting for each party on Thursday. It doesn't show what percentage of those intending to vote for each party favour No Deal, Remain, or whatever.

A few minutes in Excel, though, are enough to convert the reported percentages into actual numbers, and thus calculate the percentages horizontally. Also, rearranging the options into a more logical order gives us this:

Party | No Deal | May's Deal | Different Deal | Remain | Don't Know Conservative | 20% | 16% | 18% | 25% | 21%
Labour | 3% | 3% | 12% | 56% | 26%
Lib-Dems | 0% | 2% | 3% | 88% | 6%
SNP | 8% | 2% | 4% | 71% | 16%
Plaid Cymru | 0% | 7% | 0% | 93% | 0%
Greens | 3% | 6% | 9% | 73% | 10%
UKIP | 68% | 12% | 15% | 0% | 5%
Brexit Party | 69% | 6% | 19% | 1% | 5%
Change UK | 6% | 4% | 8% | 74% | 8%
Others | 21% | 13% | 19% | 31% | 17%
TOTAL | 28% | 6% | 13% | 41% | 12%

Now, I'm sure that even in their current state of chaos Labour must have someone who knows their way around a spreadsheet, who could thus also work out that a clear majority of their voters want to Remain.

If you exclude the Don't Knows, it's even more stark:

Party | No Deal | May's Deal | Different Deal | Remain Conservative | 25% | 20% | 23% | 32%
Labour | 4% | 5% | 16% | 75%
Lib-Dems | 0% | 2% | 3% | 94%
SNP | 9% | 2% | 4% | 84%
Plaid Cymru | 0% | 7% | 0% | 93%
Greens | 3% | 6% | 10% | 81%
UKIP | 71% | 13% | 16% | 0%
Brexit Party | 72% | 7% | 20% | 1%
Change UK | 7% | 4% | 9% | 80%
Others | 25% | 16% | 22% | 37
TOTAL | 32% | 7% | 14% | 47%
 
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A McDonalds in Edinburgh adjacent to NF's rally was told to stop selling milkshakes by the police today, so Burger King tweeted that they are selling them all weekend, and now (mostly) American alt-right Twitter has gone into meltdown!

Cue mouth-frothing demands to boycott Burger King....
 
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Of course, one problem with YouGov's results - even the detailed ones - is that the data is arranged vertically by category (e.g. Brexit Prefence, Age, Social Grade, etc.) against voting intention. Thus it shows, for example, what percentage of those favouring a No Deal intend voting for each party on Thursday. It doesn't show what percentage of those intending to vote for each party favour No Deal, Remain, or whatever.

A few minutes in Excel, though, are enough to convert the reported percentages into actual numbers, and thus calculate the percentages horizontally. Also, rearranging the options into a more logical order gives us this:

Party | No Deal | May's Deal | Different Deal | Remain | Don't Know Conservative | 20% | 16% | 18% | 25% | 21%
Labour | 3% | 3% | 12% | 56% | 26%
Lib-Dems | 0% | 2% | 3% | 88% | 6%
SNP | 8% | 2% | 4% | 71% | 16%
Plaid Cymru | 0% | 7% | 0% | 93% | 0%
Greens | 3% | 6% | 9% | 73% | 10%
UKIP | 68% | 12% | 15% | 0% | 5%
Brexit Party | 69% | 6% | 19% | 1% | 5%
Change UK | 6% | 4% | 8% | 74% | 8%
Others | 21% | 13% | 19% | 31% | 17%
TOTAL | 28% | 6% | 13% | 41% | 12%

Now, I'm sure that even in their current state of chaos Labour must have someone who knows their way around a spreadsheet, who could thus also work out that a clear majority of their voters want to Remain.

If you exclude the Don't Knows, it's even more stark:

Party | No Deal | May's Deal | Different Deal | Remain Conservative | 25% | 20% | 23% | 32%
Labour | 4% | 5% | 16% | 75%
Lib-Dems | 0% | 2% | 3% | 94%
SNP | 9% | 2% | 4% | 84%
Plaid Cymru | 0% | 7% | 0% | 93%
Greens | 3% | 6% | 10% | 81%
UKIP | 71% | 13% | 16% | 0%
Brexit Party | 72% | 7% | 20% | 1%
Change UK | 7% | 4% | 9% | 80%
Others | 25% | 16% | 22% | 37
TOTAL | 32% | 7% | 14% | 47%

So even Conservative voters have remain as the slight leader. And May's deal as the least popular
 
The UK's biggest contribution to ensuring the survival of the EU may well turn out to be demonstrating, by leaving it, what a ******* stupid thing that is to do.
 
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