Cont: Brexit: Now What? 7th heaven...

[Information Analyst]

I stuck it on an online calculator and 40% SNP, 20% Lab and 10% others gave me 4 SNP MEPs. No idea how accurate the calculator is and played around a little but not sure how sensitive it is to the other percentages.

As far as I can see if SNP hit 40 and Labour (or another party) don't exceed 20 then it will be 4 SNP MEPs.

In 2014 it was:

Scottish National Party = 389,503 (29% - 2 seats)
Labour Party = 348,219 (26% - 2 seats)
Conservative Party = 231,330 (17% - 1 seat)
UK Independence Party = 140,534 (10% - 1 seat)
Scottish Green Party = 108,305 (8%)
Liberal Democrats = 95,319 (7%)
Britain First = 13,639 (1%)
British National Party = 10,216 (1%)
NO2EU = 6,418 (0%)

In 2014 there were 1,343,483 valid votes, so splitting that as per the current poll percentages would give the SNP 522,466 (39%), which is enough to win three seats, but it would be a tight race for the fourth, which could just as easily go to Brexit, Labour, or the Greens. Obviously the latter (along with a Lib-Dem win) would be as good as an SNP win in pro-Remain terms, but the other two differing degrees of "not so good."

 

[Information Analyst]

40/3 is, um, 13 and a bit.

So if there's 3 other parties with over 13% then the SNP only get 3 seats.
So it's really a case of how the other parties break down.

45% requires 3 parties with 15+% for them to only get 3 seats.

Roll on Thursday/Friday...

D'Hondt doesn't work like that. First level counts per party/candidate are the actual number of votes polled by them. Second level are that total votes divided by two, third level divided by three, fourth by four, and so on.

Example based on current polling:

Labour = 130,616 | 65,308 | 43,539 | 32,654
Lib-Dem = 149,276 | 74,638 | 49,759 | 37,319
SNP = 522,466 | 261,233 | 174,155 | 130,616
Greens = 130,616 | 65,308 | 43,539 | 32,654
Brexit = 261,233 | 130,616 | 87,078 | 65,308
Others = 149,276 | N/A

Bold counts win the first five seats, while one of the four in italics would get the sixth. In this example the Lib-Dems would get a seat with 8% of the vote, while Labour and the Green's 7% each would only put them in the running for one. The "Others" are the Conservatives, Change UK, and Independents with 7% between them.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Exactly they are not their own nation after all and as such they can't just ignore the ruling government on such things. A single state or province can't just decide to be independent with not ruling from above. That is why the idea that there are 4 nations in the Uk is just wrong.

And that's about the wrongest thing ever posted on this site.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I think he passes most people by, but I recall him appearing on A Stab in The Dark critiquing the image of his fellow Scots in the rest of the UK, way back in 1992.



Yes, I currently think it's going to be SNP three seats, Brexit one seat, Lib-Dems one seat, and the sixth seat would go to either SNP, Brexit, Greens, or Labour. So, yes, SNP could get four, but by the same token Brexit could instead get two, or the Greens or Labour would get a single seat. The imprecision is caused by rounded percentages in the current poll, and the SNP, Brexit, Labour and Greens all having percentages that are multiples of 7. If the SNP made it to 40% at the expense of Labour, they would definitely take a fourth seat.

The latest polling gives SNP 28%, BP 14%, Lib-Dems 8%, Labour 7%, S/Greens 7%, Change UK 2%, and Independent 2%, but that's on the basis of 13% not voting and 17% don't know. I doubt there's going to be a 70% turnout, so a lot depends on who is going to be the most motivated on the day.

Obviously the same is going to apply nationally, and I suspect that what will happen is the areas that strongly voted Remain or Leave will vote accordingly, so things will look even more polarised.

Not quite sure of the data used in this story but it paints a slightly different picture. Is it newer Yougov data?

https://www.eveningtelegraph.co.uk/...ing-in-on-labour-ahead-of-european-elections/

I am more inclined to believe these numbers though as I am sceptical of any poll that says Labour will finish maybe 5th and the Tories 6th in Scotland.

Which based on my fiddling around earlier would give 4 SNP MEPs I think... 1 Lab and 1 idiot.

 

[Nessie]

Allow me...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Gove

I am going to call on the no true Scotsman fallacy! The MP for Surry Heath is hardly Scottish, just because he was born and spent his childhood here!

Sadly, the absolute most the SNP can get is six out of 73 seats.

I think that the number of votes is where we will get the true indication of where people stand on brexit and independence.

 

[catsmate]

Will Scotland be permitted to have another independence referendum in the near future ? If the Conservatives are dead set against independence (and they seem to be) then they will insist that an independence referendum is a once-in-a-generation thing. They must stand by the will of the people as expressed in the last vote (just like Brexit) and in 20 years or so, the Scottish people will get the opportunity to decide again.

Of course that would run counter to the will of the majority of Scottish people, but when was this last a concern for Westminster ?

If the Westminster government refuses to allow a referendum then the Scots ignore this, hold one anyway and the SNP uses the Brexit mess and the attempt to stop the referendum to magnify the independence vote. Then the Scots declare the Union annulled. Unless the RUK government really wants Civil War II: This Time It's Nuclear (quite possible given the prevailing level of stupidity) there's not a lot for them to do. Especially given the likely EU support.

 

[catsmate]

Actually it does, unless you want a meaningless vote or a UDI situation.

Hey it worked for us.

 

[catsmate]

Exactly they are not their own nation after all and as such they can't just ignore the ruling government on such things. A single state or province can't just decide to be independent with not ruling from above. That is why the idea that there are 4 nations in the Uk is just wrong.

Really?

 

[The Atheist]

Boris! Boris! Boris!

He'll sort those Euros out. Just give him a cricket bat to whack a few Euro-poofter bottoms and he'll have them bending over for both a stonking good, trouser-down whipping, then begging to deals with the greatest power east of the Atlantic, Britain.

I must go and play Land of Hope and Glory.

 

[Mid]

...snip... I cannot think of any Scot who has had a major role in driving to have the UK leave the EU...snip...

Edit
Never mind Gove was mentioned above

 

[Information Analyst]

Not quite sure of the data used in this story but it paints a slightly different picture. Is it newer Yougov data?

https://www.eveningtelegraph.co.uk/...ing-in-on-labour-ahead-of-european-elections/

I am more inclined to believe these numbers though as I am sceptical of any poll that says Labour will finish maybe 5th and the Tories 6th in Scotland.

Which based on my fiddling around earlier would give 4 SNP MEPs I think... 1 Lab and 1 idiot.

That looked a bit odd, and after a bit of checking it looks like the Evening Telegraph slipped up, as the numbers given match those previously reported in The Guardian on 9 May, while the more recent poll was carried out on 8 & 9 May, and published on 12 May.

As such, the changes in the percentages per party make a bit more sense:

Conservative = 10 -> 6
Labour = 14 -> 10
Lib-Dem = 6 -> 11
SNP = 40 -> 38
Green = 7 -> 9
UKIP = 3 -> 0
Brexit = 13 -> 21
Change UK = 6 -> 2
Independent = 0 -> 2

Still some remarkably large shifts in what must have been less than a week (there was a poll on 29-30 April, but the numbers don't match).

ETA: Just seen someone on Question Time from Edinburgh repeating the fallacy that the Brexit Party are going to "win" the EP elections. Sigh....

 

[a_unique_person]

Boris is going to put up his hand for a go at PM when May quits.

 

[The Don]

I'm glad to see that the cross party Brexit talks have now come to a close and although I would have liked to see some kind of deal (so long as it was a much better deal than Theresa May's), given both sides' intransigence around red lines it's hardly surprising one wasn't found. At least my fears of Corbyn being conned into supporting Theresa May's deal were unfounded.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48304867

 

[jimbob]

And that's about the wrongest thing ever posted on this site.

Have you not come across Ponderingturtle's posts before?

Somewhere between sarcastic and (deliberate) poe.

 

[jimbob]

I'm glad to see that the cross party Brexit talks have now come to a close and although I would have liked to see some kind of deal (so long as it was a much better deal than Theresa May's), given both sides' intransigence around red lines it's hardly surprising one wasn't found. At least my fears of Corbyn being conned into supporting Theresa May's deal were unfounded.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48304867

It means I might be able to vote Labour next week.

 

[The Don]

It means I might be able to vote Labour next week.

They're still a pro-Brexit party with a completely unrealistic post-Brexit vision of a UK within a customs union but able to negotiate our own trade deals with EU partners - and with no commitment to a second referendum.

As a Remoaner, there's no functional difference between Labour and Conservative from my perspective.

 

[Tolls]

D'Hondt doesn't work like that. First level counts per party/candidate are the actual number of votes polled by them. Second level are that total votes divided by two, third level divided by three, fourth by four, and so on.

Gah.
I got my sums wrong.
I should have divided by 4 to get the SNP "%" for the 4th seat.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

It means I might be able to vote Labour next week.

But they still support a unicorns and cake Brexit. And they are still dishonest about it. I would rather vote Tory than Labour now to be honest. At least you know what you are getting with the Tories.

 

[Lothian]

But they still support a unicorns and cake Brexit. And they are still dishonest about it. I would rather vote Tory than Labour now to be honest. At least you know what you are getting with the Tories.

Labour are dishonest, but there is a tiny tiny tiny chance they may not turn out to be complete twats. That gives them a massive advantage over the Tories, but I wouldn't vote for either.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Gah.
I got my sums wrong.
I should have divided by 4 to get the SNP "%" for the 4th seat.

I am still going with 40% being the magic number for 4 seats. This is based on my d'Archie method of saying it so now it's true!

If I understand things right then to get 3 seats with 40% would require either the 2nd place party to break 20% or 4 parties in total to get more than 10% which seems a big ask given how things stand. Although it is borderline in both cases.

Just depends how many Rangers fans can be bothered voting for Farage's lot I suppose. Hopefully they can put something on TV to distract them - an orange walk, a flute recital or a documentary about 17th century Ireland.

I suppose the good news is both a vote for the SNP and a vote for the Brexit Party help the cause of Independence, in different ways.