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Bitcoin - Part 2

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Belz... said:
As soon as you stop treating BTC like the second coming.
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I get it. Anybody who doesn't say "BITCOIN BAD" believes that bitcoin is the most wonderful thing in the world and sacred to boot. :rolleyes:

Belz... said:
Indeed, and erroneously. So?
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So anybody sprouting the same nonsense today is not deserving of respect.
 
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psionl0 said:
Perhaps if you actually read my posts instead of making them up you would see that this is already the case.
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I think I've read enough of them to come to my own conclusion, thanks.

Just because you think you're being rational doesn't mean the rest of the world will see it that way, and it doesn't mean they haven't read your material.
 
Belz... said:
I think I've read enough of them to come to my own conclusion, thanks.
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If you think that I am promoting bitcoin or saying that bitcoin is wonderful and will never fail then you clearly haven't.

When I am not dealing with the uncritical thinking in this thread I put my own views forward such as in posts #3373 or #3416.
 
The technical picture presents as a pending attempt on 3000.
Base camp is established, just watching the weather.
 
psionl0 said:
The highlighted bit is a typical strawman argument leveled against me at every opportunity. It is a LIE. I have never said that "past performance is all you need" or that a future profit is guaranteed.
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If that doesn't represent your thinking then great! But the reason I associate it with you is your previous statements including "...history shows that buyers fare better than sellers." post # 3143,

psionl0 said:
What I have said is that based on past performance, the odds favour another price cycle. (If that happens then another profit can be made). Do you have a problem with a statement like that?
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Yes, I do. It's like saying because I flipped a coin 5 times and it came up heads each time, the odds favor it comming up heads on the sixth time. The odds are still even.

psionl0 said:
I might point out that a "pump and dump" is virtually impossible with bitcoin. Sure there are many trying to talk up the price of bitcoin with glowing recommendations (I am not one of them) but the historical price chart is out there for anybody to see and make their own conclusions. Nobody can get away with lying about bitcoin's performance (an essential component of pump and dump schemes).
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You don't need truth to "pump". All that's required is to build hype. I see an awful lot of statements designed to promote hype rather than critical thinking.

psionl0 said:
In case you haven't guessed it, I am not promoting bitcoin. I am trying to counter all of the ridiculous arguments we see being repeated ad-nauseum.
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You don't counter ridiculous arguments from one end of the spectrum with ridiculous arguments from the other end.
 
jrhowell said:
Reality malfunction. Is this TA or mountain climbing?
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It is TA, the proposition that price history alone confers information that is measurably better than a coin toss. I realise it is a little confusing talking climbing when a descent to purgatory is expected, so simply turn the chart upside down, but don't make the mistake Warren Buffet did.
 
Samson said:
It is TA, the proposition that price history alone confers information that is measurably better than a coin toss.
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Price history alone is no better than a coin toss. It only has predictive power when combined with other observations and knowledge of the market.

Straight technical analysis gives you nonsense like this:-

December 20 2018: Bitcoin [BTC] possible take-over by bulls indicated by the technicals
Bitcoin seems to have found the long needed respite it was looking for, as the prices are climbing higher than expected... currently trading at $3,900... it will be testing resistance points at $4,345, $4,750, and $5,545.

The MACD indicator shows a positive and a bullish crossover that has over-reached its stay. It shows a clear bullish sign.

The same goes for Stochastic indicator as it has risen above and reached the over-bought zone.

The Chaikin Money Flow shows an influx of money into the Bitcoin market as the CMF indicator has risen from the depths of the abyss.

The Parabolic SAR markers have formed below the price candles indicating a bullish trend.

The Relative Strength Index is also showing a dramatic increase as it has crossed the 50-line indicating an impending over-bought position for Bitcoin.

The Awesome Oscillator shows receding green lines transitioning from red lines, which indicates a possibility of an impending bullish cross-over.
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December 26 2018: prices collapse as Christmas rally comes to an end
The Bollinger Bands are seen closing in on the prices as the volatility in the market is reducing. The prices have dropped below the simple moving average, which indicates a bearish trend for Bitcoin...

The Aroon indicator also shows a bullish move for Bitcoin prices as the Aroon green line has hit the 100-line indicating that the uptrend has gained momentum.
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What does all that gobbledygook even mean?

"The coin just 'unexpectedly' came up Heads. The next 3 tosses will 'test resistance levels' to either come up Heads or Tails."

Later...

"The last two tosses came up Tails, indicating a 'bearish trend' - unless it comes up Heads next time!"
 

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Mycroft said:
If that doesn't represent your thinking then great! But the reason I associate it with you is your previous statements including "...history shows that buyers fare better than sellers." post # 3143,
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And you think that a simple statement of fact (that is true btw) is no different to saying that "profits from bitcoin in the future are absolutely guaranteed?

That is some serious strawman right there!

Mycroft said:
Yes, I do. It's like saying because I flipped a coin 5 times and it came up heads each time, the odds favor it comming up heads on the sixth time. The odds are still even.
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Or the coin is biased. Either way, it is ridiculous to compare bitcoin to tossing coins. Bitcoin would not be at the price it is today if a rise or fall in its price was merely a coin toss.

Mycroft said:
You don't need truth to "pump".
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Of course not. As I said, you need lies. Preferably the lies can't be countered with the truth unlike the case with bitcoin.

Mycroft said:
You don't counter ridiculous arguments from one end of the spectrum with ridiculous arguments from the other end.
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No, that seems to be more your style. Your problem is that my statements aren't ridiculous enough so you try to counter strawman arguments with ridiculous arguments from the other end.
 
Roger Ramjets said:
Price history alone is no better than a coin toss. It only has predictive power when combined with other observations and knowledge of the market.

Straight technical analysis gives you nonsense like this:-

December 20 2018: Bitcoin [BTC] possible take-over by bulls indicated by the technicals


December 26 2018: prices collapse as Christmas rally comes to an endWhat does all that gobbledygook even mean?

"The coin just 'unexpectedly' came up Heads. The next 3 tosses will 'test resistance levels' to either come up Heads or Tails."

Later...

"The last two tosses came up Tails, indicating a 'bearish trend' - unless it comes up Heads next time!"
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I actually agree with most of that.

Except that the odds of a price rise or fall are not exactly 50/50. Based on the shorter price history, the odds favour a fall while based on a longer history, the odds are at least even or even favour a price rise.
 
psionl0 said:
I actually agree with most of that.

Except that the odds of a price rise or fall are not exactly 50/50. Based on the shorter price history, the odds favour a fall while based on a longer history, the odds are at least even or even favour a price rise.
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Trends don’t “just happen” they are caused by underlying forces. Over the long term gold tracks with inflation. Over the long term stocks/bonds track with the value of their earnings.

What underlying pressure does bitcoin track with? It’s not a commodity like gold, nor does it have earnings like stocks/bonds. It’s not even useful for paying taxes and helping to maintain balance of payments like a fiat currency. Bitcoin has very limited underlying utility and has significant economic costs to maintain. This makes it overvalued at any price, so it’s ultimate destination, as I suggested above is zero or close enough to make no difference. There may be a lot of completely random movement between now and then, but unless it acquires some significant utility that’s where the long term trend will take it
 
lomiller said:
Trends don’t “just happen” they are caused by underlying forces. Over the long term gold tracks with inflation. Over the long term stocks/bonds track with the value of their earnings.

What underlying pressure does bitcoin track with? It’s not a commodity like gold, nor does it have earnings like stocks/bonds. It’s not even useful for paying taxes and helping to maintain balance of payments like a fiat currency. Bitcoin has very limited underlying utility and has significant economic costs to maintain. This makes it overvalued at any price, so it’s ultimate destination, as I suggested above is zero or close enough to make no difference. There may be a lot of completely random movement between now and then, but unless it acquires some significant utility that’s where the long term trend will take it
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That is just meaningless crap from 2011 copied and reposted.
 
psionl0 said:
That is just meaningless crap...
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Talk about meaningless...

Bitcoin price: ‘no reason’ for falling cryptocurrency values
Mati Greenspan, Mati Greenspan, told the Daily Express that the cryptocurrency market is seeing a “reversal” of the trend that pushed bitcoin above the $4,000 (£3,120) mark at the beginning of the year.

But he added that “there doesn’t seem to be any real reason for this drop, neither technical nor fundamental”.
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You see, the Bitcoin price goes up and down as it feels like, with no discernible relationship to the 'technicals' or 'fundamentals'. So any talk about what the 'technicals' say it will do is meaningless, and while it's fundamental value probably is close to zero, that isn't affecting the current price.
 
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