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Bitcoin - Part 2

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AlaskaBushPilot said:
Talk about a bubble. But what can you do? One must invest. The IRA or Tax Deferred Compensation money, it has to be in the market.
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Speculating and investing are different things. In real investing you can project how much money the investment will earn and since there are well known well understood formulas to tell you how much that money will be worth in todays funds you can know your rate of return up front. There is a risk the earns will fall short of projections, but often also the possibility they will exceed projections.

Speculation, on the other hand is buying something in the hope that someone else will pay more for it down the line. Sometimes this can be informed speculation, as you have with commodities where you can estimate future supply and demand, but bitcoin isn’t even that. Bitcoin is classic greater fool investing, where you overpay for something with little/no real value in the hope that you will find an even bigger fool to sell it to down the road.
 
lomiller said:
Bitcoin is classic greater fool investing, where you overpay for something with little/no real value in the hope that you will find an even bigger fool to sell it to down the road.
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You might have forgotten all of the counter arguments to this tripe that have been repeated many times on this thread but some of us don't have Swiss Cheese memory.
 
psionl0 said:
You might have forgotten all of the counter arguments to this tripe
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I remember lots of hand waving and equivocating but no meaningful counter-arguments.

psionl0 said:
have been repeated many times on this thread but some of us don't have Swiss Cheese memory.
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My memory is fine, it was the supposed “counter-arguments” that were Swiss cheese, when the were even attempted that is. More often these “counter arguments” amounted to nothing more than a denial of basic economic concepts.
 
lomiller said:
I remember lots of hand waving and equivocating but no meaningful counter-arguments.
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ie: You remember nothing.

lomiller said:
My memory is fine, it was the supposed “counter-arguments” that were Swiss cheese, when the were even attempted that is. More often these “counter arguments” amounted to nothing more than a denial of basic economic concepts.
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ie: You don't know what the counter arguments are.
 
psionl0 said:
You might have forgotten all of the counter arguments to this tripe that have been repeated many times on this thread but some of us don't have Swiss Cheese memory.
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Just because a counter argument is made doesn't mean it's convincing.
 
Mycroft said:
Just because a counter argument is made doesn't mean it's convincing.
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Anybody can use buzz-phrases like "hand waving", "equivocating", "denial of basic economic concepts", "greater fool" etc to describe an argument without knowing a single word of what the argument is about. If you think that the counter arguments are flawed then you should quote them and explain where the flaws are.

Unfortunately, that is not how it works in this thread. The idea is to post the same rubbish ad-nausem as if it is the first time the claim has ever been made. Just wait. Sooner or later, some idiot is going to come along and rehash buzz-phrases like "scam", "ponzi", "pyramid", "pump-n-dump". Then there are a whole lot of unrelated schemes that failed in the past. You can be sure that some moron will make reference to some of them yet again then high five himself for being the first person to ever make that argument.
 
psionl0 said:
Anybody can use buzz-phrases like "hand waving", "equivocating", "denial of basic economic concepts", "greater fool" etc to describe an argument without knowing a single word of what the argument is about. If you think that the counter arguments are flawed then you should quote them and explain where the flaws are.

Unfortunately, that is not how it works in this thread. The idea is to post the same rubbish ad-nausem as if it is the first time the claim has ever been made. Just wait. Sooner or later, some idiot is going to come along and rehash buzz-phrases like "scam", "ponzi", "pyramid", "pump-n-dump". Then there are a whole lot of unrelated schemes that failed in the past. You can be sure that some moron will make reference to some of them yet again then high five himself for being the first person to ever make that argument.
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Such chutzpah psion, you'd never believe reading your pollyanna appraisal the entity is down 80% in value....
 
psionl0 said:
Anybody can use buzz-phrases like "hand waving", "equivocating", "denial of basic economic concepts", "greater fool" etc to describe an argument without knowing a single word of what the argument is about. If you think that the counter arguments are flawed then you should quote them and explain where the flaws are.
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Except those phrases are not just buzz words but have actual meanings. "Greater fool", for example, was recently used in a context that means that the demand of bitcoin is driven almost exclusively by the perception that it's value will rise and that sometime in the future, another speculator, a "greater fool than you" will buy it from you at a larger price based on their own expectation that the price will rise yet further.

"Hand waving" is when you dismiss an argument like that (or a different argument) with insufficient reasoning. ”Oh you’re just calling Bitcoin investors fools, so I dismiss that argument because I don’t think I’m a fool therefore your argument is invalid” without addressing the substance of the argument.

None of which is to say a person can’t make money on Bitcoin. Many people already have made lots of money on Bitcoin, and it’s possible that some people will make yet more money on Bitcoin.

What these criticisms are based on is that money made on Bitcoin is predominantly about luck and not sound investment strategy. Because the price of Bitcoin is driven solely by supply and demand and because the demand is driven almost exclusively by speculators believing its value will increase, and because this single driver of this demand is chaotic and not easily predictable, one should understand that an investment of this nature is a high-risk investment where the possibility of losing the investment totally is very real.

But again, that doesn’t mean nobody can make money on Bitcoin. It does mean that anyone investing should understand the high-risk nature of this investment, and that rhetoric claiming there is something magical about Bitcoin, that because set-backs in the past have always been reversed all you need to do is wait it out to realize a profit is irresponsible woo peddling as is rhetoric that denigrates sellers as “nervous nellies” which is designed to get people to replace judgement based on reason with judgement based on ego.
 
psionl0 said:
Unfortunately, that is not how it works in this thread. The idea is to post the same rubbish ad-nausem as if it is the first time the claim has ever been made. Just wait. Sooner or later, some idiot is going to come along and rehash buzz-phrases like "scam", "ponzi", "pyramid", "pump-n-dump". Then there are a whole lot of unrelated schemes that failed in the past. You can be sure that some moron will make reference to some of them yet again then high five himself for being the first person to ever make that argument.
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Again, these phrases are not “buzz-phrases”, but are phrases with real meanings. You can look up the definition of “Ponzi” and “pyramid” and find their definitions. They apply to real ideas, and are not merely “buzz-words”.

At the same time, “Ponzi” and “pyramid” don’t apply to Bitcoin, so I’m not going to talk about them any more (unless you need to), but “scam” and “pump-n-dump” do apply to Bitcoin, so I will talk about them.

Bitcoin is not in and of itself a scam, I am absolutely not claiming it is.

It is, however, conducive to scams. Any scam that’s ever been used on money trading, commodities trading, penny stock trading and many scams that rely on an individuals greed to overcome their common sense (actually, that’s a common factor in all scams) works pretty well with Bitcoin.

One scam in particular is “pump-n-dump”. This activity is illegal when it involves stocks and securities but afaik is not regulated in regards to crypto-currencies. This scam involves artificially inflating interest in an investment, typically through false or misleading statements, so that the scammer can sell the investment at an inflated price, leaving others to take a loss.

This scam is why I have a real problem when you and others make misleading statements about Bitcoin, claiming that past performance indicates all you need to do is hold on and eventually you will realize your profit, when you denigrate sellers as “nervous nellies” while claiming the brave souls who held on are “laughing all the way to the bank, HAHAHAHAHA!!!”.

Those are all “pump” elements of “pump-n-dump”.

Which not to say I think you are trying to scam anyone, but it could indicate you’ve been exposed and influenced by this rhetoric by someone who is trying to scam people, or who may have scammed people months or even years ago.

These are emotive terms designed to encourage you and others to make decisions based on your emotions rather than reason. That’s why they’re dangerous, and that’s why I object when this kind of reasoning is used to promote Bitcoin.
 
Mycroft said:
One scam in particular is “pump-n-dump”. This activity is illegal when it involves stocks and securities but afaik is not regulated in regards to crypto-currencies. This scam involves artificially inflating interest in an investment, typically through false or misleading statements, so that the scammer can sell the investment at an inflated price, leaving others to take a loss.

This scam is why I have a real problem when you and others make misleading statements about Bitcoin, claiming that past performance indicates all you need to do is hold on and eventually you will realize your profit, when you denigrate sellers as “nervous nellies” while claiming the brave souls who held on are “laughing all the way to the bank, HAHAHAHAHA!!!”.
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The highlighted bit is a typical strawman argument leveled against me at every opportunity. It is a LIE. I have never said that "past performance is all you need" or that a future profit is guaranteed.

What I have said is that based on past performance, the odds favour another price cycle. (If that happens then another profit can be made). Do you have a problem with a statement like that?

I might point out that a "pump and dump" is virtually impossible with bitcoin. Sure there are many trying to talk up the price of bitcoin with glowing recommendations (I am not one of them) but the historical price chart is out there for anybody to see and make their own conclusions. Nobody can get away with lying about bitcoin's performance (an essential component of pump and dump schemes).

In case you haven't guessed it, I am not promoting bitcoin. I am trying to counter all of the ridiculous arguments we see being repeated ad-nauseum. This seems to be a thread where critical thinking goes to die and the psychic and paranormal becomes valid science. There is ZERO evidence to suggest that bitcoin will go away or its price will crash permanently or that there will never be another price peak like that of December 2017 (although these things are possible). No number of unfavourable internet articles nor dismissals by "reputable" economists can establish otherwise.
 
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Putting this here for the record, and revisiting at/near the end of 2019.


Weiss Ratings is predicting the Bitcoin price will surpass its previous all-time high of just below US$20,000, within the next twelve months.



  • Bitcoin will increasingly be used as a store of value.
  • Select altcoins will rise from relative obscurity to as much as 20 times their previous all-time highs.
  • A select group of cryptos will compete to build a new kind of internet.
  • Another select group of cryptocurrencies will disrupt the world of banking.
  • Bitcoin ‘me-too’ coins will fade away.
  • New coins will rocket to the top 10.
https://micky.com.au/ratings-agency-bitcoin-price-to-all-time-highs-in-2019/


Norm
 
Here are my predictions:-

1. By the end of 2019, most people will have gotten so sick of Bitcoin shills and their outlandish claims that they won't even bother visiting threads like this.

2. The words Bitcoin and ****coin will become synonyms.

3. Many so-called Bitcoin 'news' sites will close down due to lack of advertising revenue. This will be blamed on Bitcoin 'Bears', FUD propagated by corrupt Wall street banksters, and 'negative energy' coming from all the ignorant fools who still don't understand the revolutionary nature of cryptocurrency!

4. Your 'friend' who kept crowing about how much money he was making from trading Bitcoin will tell you he actually sold it all years ago, and never had that much anyway. However he will still claim it made him so rich that he doesn't need to work for a living, and only took that low-paying job at the local electronics store because he was bored of sitting at home all day playing computer games (true story!).

5. John McAfee will insist that his promise to "eat my **** on national TV if Bitcoin doesn't reach 1,000,000 by the end of 2020" was a joke. Even though his weaseling out is totally expected, for some reason this latest failure of Bitcoin to produce anything of real value will be terribly disappointing, causing interest to drop below the noise level on social media. At this point Bitcoin will be officially dead.
 
One more prediction I forgot to put in that list:-

6. Warren Buffett's estimation that Bitcoin is 'probably rat poison squared' will be falsified. It will be mathematically proven that Bitcoin is actually rat poison cubed.
 
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