Bitcoin - Part 2

[ponderingturtle]

Talk about meaningless...

Bitcoin price: ‘no reason’ for falling cryptocurrency valuesYou see, the Bitcoin price goes up and down as it feels like, with no discernible relationship to the 'technicals' or 'fundamentals'. So any talk about what the 'technicals' say it will do is meaningless, and while it's fundamental value probably is close to zero, that isn't affecting the current price.

Channeling Bill O'Reiley, "price goes up price goes down you can't explain that!"

Clearly that means bitcoin is the currency of god.

 

[psionl0]

Why do you think something having been said before takes away from it's credibility?

Because it was successfully rebutted before but nobody wants to acknowledge that either claim or counter claim has ever been made. In this woo thread, history doesn't exist even if it has been recorded.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Is Bitcoin "digital Gold"? Or a religion...

Bitcoin’s Price Counters the VIX, Confirming It’s Still a Risk Asset

In theory, the VIX should be low when the S&P 500 is in a steady uptrend and should only rise as does fear, causing panic selling and for either smart or weak hands to be shaken out of the market.

Bitcoin, being a store of value that isn’t the product of a government, is advertised to be unaffected by the perceived fear or risk in any market, yet as the chart below shows, that is not yet the case.

At the first peak, the S&P 500 was down nearly 10 percent from its January highs and on the second peak it was down closer to 20 percent from the record highs achieved just two months prior.

Needless to say, fear was, and still is, prevalent in the broader U.S. Stock market, which should have resulted in either a stable or bullish bitcoin, right?

Wrong. Bitcoin inversely correlated with the VIX on both occasions. When the VIX reached its first peak, bitcoin had just finished falling 70 percent from its January highs and during the second peak, its price had just declined another 50 percent.

Bitcoin’s negative correlation with the VIX shows it performs poorly when fear in the U.S. equities market creates a “risk-off” environment – by definition, the opposite of a safe haven asset.

So much for "digital Gold"!

But if Bitcion is not a competitive 'medium of exchange' or 'store of value' then what is it?

Certainly it is a vehicle for speculation. For this it does not need to have any fundamental value or utility beyond being attractive to greater fools. And it is also a template for ICO scams and other Ponzi schemes (though we must not call Bitcoin itself a scam, because reasons).

For sure Bitcoin has suffered the worst bubble of any commodity in history (if you can call it a commodity) But when the dust settles and the speculators leave, could it fulfill its promise to replace 'corrupt banksters' and 'worthless fiat' as many anarchists and libertarians so desperately desire? Sadly not, since that would require more computing power that the World can deliver without serious ecological damage.

Or perhaps Bitcoin is just the 'father' of crypto, to be replaced by a more advanced technology which fixes its flaws and provides clear advantages over conventional banking systems? But there are several contenders (Bitcoin cash, Etherium etc.) which have the credentials to do this now, so why aren't they? Why are the fortunes of all other crytpos tied to the 'flagship' Bitcoin, despite its obvious inferiority?

The reasons are twofold:-

1. The primary attraction of other cryptos is the same as Bitcoin - they are vehicles for unregulated speculation that is attractive to scammers and selfish 'investors' who want easy money without working for it. These people don't care about how it may hurt others, so long as it makes them personally rich.

2. The other group of enthusiastic supporters are anarchists and libertarians who believe that a totally decentralized financial system would be free of greed and corruption, and would somehow regulate itself for the good of all. A noble goal perhaps, but rather naive. Many of these people are also susceptible to conspiracy theories and have a general mistrust of central authorities, so their inability to see the flaws in Bitcoin is not surprising.

During the past year I have been regularly visiting several of the more popular 'crypto' websites to gauge the sentiment of articles and commenters. Despite Bitcoin's massive decline in value and shocking revelations of its unfitness for any legitimate purpose, their mood remains ludicrously positive, and anyone who disagrees is treated as an idiot or accused of being one of 'them'. What does this remind you of? That's right - a religious cult.

The similarities are striking - both attract people who want an easy way out of having to deal with reality, and scammers who see an opportunity to milk them. Both are able to reach breathtaking levels of mass-delusion, and survive for many years despite the obvious bankruptcy of their ideas. Both have been able to achieve 'legitimacy' by browbeating authorities into accepting them.

Is Crypto The Largest Religion In the World?

Have you seen the “crypto light” yet? You wouldn’t be the first person to do so. Cryptocurrency is taking the world by storm with millions of new converters each year. There’s no doubt that some investors follow the words of market experts more closely than that of the bible. Therefore, does that make this new currency a religion?

Go research the religions of the world. Do it. Right now. Find anything in common? Let me give you a hint. Every religion has a gospel or the so-called teachings of the religion’s foundation. Crypto is no different. Just go to any blockchain conference, cryptocurrency meetup or certain Medium pages and you’ll find people spreading the good word of this new technology...

People have faith in decentralization just like they have faith in the Bible, Koran, Torah or any number of stories. A good story is what brings people together and decentralization is no different. People want to join up, support this theory and hopefully see a great result in the end. It may be financially motivated or politically motivated but all crypto believers share a common goal. So now think again. What really is a religion besides a group of people supporting a singular belief? It’s time to start praying to the crypto gods.

And this from an article promoting crypto!

 

[psionl0]

Is Crypto The Largest Religion In the World?

You're not even trying. The same author has posted other articles on the same website calling bitcoin the "mark of the beast" and heralding the "end of days".

 

[fromdownunder]

Now here is a real story which tells it like it really is and should convince everybody to see the future as it really is going to be.

Bitcoin Could Replace Gold, Reach $10M, Save us from Debt Crisis



https://toshitimes.com/bitcoin-could-replace-gold-reach-10m-save-us-from-debt-crisis/

But how could we expect Bitcoin to hit $10 million when it’s having trouble getting past the $3,500 point? First, the coin would need to break out of its slump, which might not happen anytime soon. Lucid [Investment Strategies], like many others, feel that Bitcoin has yet to hit its bottom.



Another factor that would help establish the bottom for Bitcoin is the complete destruction of all other altcoins and ICO tokens. This would show that Bitcoin is the standard and anyone else is just a cheap imitation. While this process is slow in taking shape, it has already started. However, much of this requires regulators to create regulations. In the meantime, Bitcoin will continue to drop, however, so will its competition.



Once it hits bottom, Bitcoin could then begin its grind back to the top. Expectations are that it would face resistance at first, but once the coin breaks through certain technical points, it will quickly gain traction and soon hit an all-time high of $20,000.


The next challenge for Bitcoin would come at the $100,000 mark. At this point, the digital currency would start to rival gold as the premier economic option in the world. It’s at this point that Bitcoin could quickly overtake gold if investors started selling the metal for the flagship cryptocurrency. Even if this doesn’t happen, it’s still possible for Bitcoin to eclipse gold, it would just take a little longer.



Now comes the time when scaling becomes an issue. Developers must focus on delivering a viable solution to scale Bitcoin’s protocol so that it can handle a larger network. If this problem can be solved, and institutional adoption occurs, Bitcoin would be on track to become the currency reserve for the entire world.



If these parameters are met, the path to hitting $1 million now becomes straight and smooth. At $1 million, Bitcoin would have a market cap of nearly $18 trillion. It would become the major asset of the wealthy. It would become a legitimate contender among other world currencies.



At this point, Bitcoin would be the fastest growing asset in the world. It could no longer be ignored by those within the financial sector as a passing fad or popular trend among those in the tech arena. When wealth funds, governments, and money managers stand up and take notice, the trip to $10 million has all the fuel it needs.


While it’s unlikely that this scenario actually plays out the way its presented here, the point is that it could happen. If it could happen, then why not take the chance that it will happen, even if it’s on a smaller scale.



The wrong question here is whether or not Bitcoin will be selected as the solution to our debt crisis. The question to ask instead is whether or not we’ll have a choice. At this point in time, it’s tough to see any other viable options.

So there you have it in a nutshell. Bitcoin alone can cure the worlds trading problems. Firstly get rid of every other Crypto Currency on the market. Yeah, some investors and software developers are really going to take that lying down.



Then once it gets out of the current slump it will pop up easily to over $20,000, no competition from other cryptos you see, take a smooth ride from there to $100,000, possibly replacing gold, but that is not important because Bitcoin will win anyway. After that, $1,000,000 can be obtained if the software is improved and cheaper to run, then $10,000,000 "has all the fuel it needs".


So buy one bitcoin right now, and you become a millionaire. Easy as you like. Just HODL it. I don't know why they didn't suggest $100,000,000. It's just as realistic.



Norm

 

[psionl0]

Bitcoin Could Replace Gold, Reach $10M, Save us from Debt Crisis



https://toshitimes.com/bitcoin-could...m-debt-crisis/

Trawling the internet for opinion pieces about bitcoin is about as useful as looking for sand at the beach.

 

[fromdownunder]

Trawling the internet for opinion pieces about bitcoin is about as useful as looking for sand at the beach.

I did not have to trawl far. I google Bitcoin News (as well as Trump News, Brexit News and Australia's ABC News page) every morning. This was a headline article on top of the page. Kinda hard to miss.


Anyway I thought you were positive about Bitcoin so this piece should be right up your alley. Support of Bitcoin at its finest.



Norm

 

[psionl0]

I did not have to trawl far.

You don't have to look far to find sand at the beach either.

Anyway I thought you were positive about Bitcoin so this piece should be right up your alley.

Why on earth would you think that? Don't you read any of my posts?

Demolishing ridiculous and stale arguments on this thread is my sole purpose. It doesn't matter if they are positive or negative towards bitcoin. It just happens that most of my time is spent dealing with the latter arguments because so many people are desperately wishing that bitcoin would go away.

 

[fromdownunder]

Demolishing ridiculous and stale arguments on this thread is my sole purpose.

This was your post in full: "Trawling the internet for opinion pieces about bitcoin is about as useful as looking for sand at the beach."



How was your response to the article, and my comments about it demolishing the argument, rather than just dismissing the article out of hand and attempting to demolish the person who posted it.



If you are sick and tired of the posts recently made on this thread, and as it appears from your more recent posts, simply dismissing what others say with throwaway lines, why do you still even bother? I like seeing reasoning which demolishes bad arguments. That is in part made me join the JREF Forum 11 years ago, but that is not what you are actually doing now.


Aside: Actually that is not what a lot of people are doing any more in a lot of threads. Is it catching?



Norm

 

[fromdownunder]

Why on earth would you think that? Don't you read any of my posts?

Yes I do and all you seem to do, at least recently, is make negative comments and do nothing but tersely dismiss anyone or any argument which says something bad about Bitcoin. If that is not your intention, well so be it. It is how it looks from where I am reading.


Norm

 

[Samson]

“Bank balances would suddenly become meaningless,” Shrem reasoned. “No one would be able to go to the bank or ATM to get their cash since the banks would stop operating the day the first nuclear bombs detonate.”

Indeed, Shrem cheerfully reminded readers that “some banks will be vaporized outright.” Meanwhile, others would be “contaminated with radiation.” But what would survive such an unspeakable tragedy? Bitcoin, of course! says Shrem""

https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-would-be-lone-survivor-in-nuclear-war-hunger-games-charlie-shrem/

And thus runs one of the better arguments for bitcoin in this race to the bottom.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

“Bank balances would suddenly become meaningless,” Shrem reasoned. “No one would be able to go to the bank or ATM to get their cash since...

...they would be dead.

 

[psionl0]

Yes I do and all you seem to do, at least recently, is make negative comments and do nothing but tersely dismiss anyone or any argument which says something bad about Bitcoin. If that is not your intention, well so be it. It is how it looks from where I am reading.

I only "tersely dismiss" arguments that have been made and rebutted before - which is all of them.

In your case, you linked to an article that gave an outrageously optimistic prediction for bitcoin's future. Articles about bitcoin abound on the internet. You can find articles of every flavour regarding bitcoin without even trying. It is valid to question your motivation for selecting one at random and posting it on this thread.

I find it very difficult to believe that you did so because you wanted the article analysed. It is much more likely that you are just trying to create a false dichotomy. You are implying that anybody who is not totally negative on bitcoin is as silly as the author of this article. It is a form of ridicule. It's like saying that if you don't support internet censorship then you support kiddie porn.

Are you going to say that you weren't encouraging readers to infer "See? That's what bitcoiners are like" when you linked to the article?

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Trawling the internet for opinion pieces about bitcoin is about as useful as looking for sand at the beach.

No need to trawl for them, they are in your face every day. I just type 'bitcoin price' into Google and all these websites pop up with their outrageous headlines. Who can resist clicking on them? And not just there. Right now, two of the top 5 articles on Forbes Money are about crypto.

It's like saying that if you don't support internet censorship then you support kiddie porn.

If 99% of articles about 'Internet censorship' were actually promoting kiddie porn, then...

Not a great analogy, but in the topsy-turvy world we live in now, who knows? The main differences between kiddie porn websites and crypto websites are:-

1. Kiddie porn producers aren't making outlandish claims about how their product will change the World, or make you rich, or doesn't cause any harm.

2. Kiddie porn producers aren't trying to promote it as a good thing for society, or getting articles printed in the mainstream media, or lobbying governments to improve their legal status.

But that may change. When the bottom finally drops out crypto, people will need something else to 'invest' in. Kiddie porn might just be that thing! Disgusting? Impossible? Perhaps not. You see, porn is going the same way as everything else in our world - digital. Just like crypto is 'virtual currency' created on a computer, so the porn of the future will be created digitally. With no actual children being harmed, what's not to like?

Demand would be huge of course, and those who 'saw the light' at the start would become rich beyond their wildest dreams. Kiddie porn could soon replace 'worthless' fiat as the 'currency' of choice, especially if production was artificially limited to keep keep its 'value' up. And then there will be no stopping it.

Imagine a future where anyone who objects to kiddie porn is dismissed as 'desperately wishing that it would go away'!

 

[fromdownunder]

Are you going to say that you weren't encouraging readers to infer "See? That's what bitcoiners are like" when you linked to the article?

I posted the article and commented on it. Every member of the Board was free to respond or not respond, and interpret my comment as they wished. If that is the way you interpreted my comments you are welcome to do so. I see no reason to add to what I have already said about it.



Norm

 

[psionl0]

If 99% of articles about 'Internet censorship' were actually promoting kiddie porn, then...

Why would an article promoting internet censorship be an article promoting kiddie porn? That is the dumbest statement ever!

Even if there were zero articles promoting kiddie porn, the argument would still be made. The objective is to silence dissent through shaming. It is much the same tactic that you constantly try to prevent any rational discussion about bitcoin.

 

[lomiller]

I only "tersely dismiss" arguments that have been made and rebutted before - which is all of them.

Other than speculation:
What underlying utility does bitcoin have that would give in significant underlying value?
What return on investment does bitcoin give you that would give it significant underlying value?
In light of the significant technological issues with it why should we use bitcoin over other crypto-currencies with fewer (but still significant) technical and security issues?
When people stop using bitcoin altogether either in favor of technically superior cryptocurrencies or because they realize it’s more of an annoyance than useful too what value does your bitcoin have?


Purely speculative “assets” like bitcoin are not meaningfully different than online gambling IMO, and should never be viewed or presented as investments. Yes, this has been said before, but who cares if it’s repeated. It’s something that can’t be repeated often enough.

 

[lomiller]

Why would an article promoting internet censorship be an article promoting kiddie porn? That is the dumbest statement ever!

Even if there were zero articles promoting kiddie porn, the argument would still be made. The objective is to silence dissent through shaming. It is much the same tactic that you constantly try to prevent any rational discussion about bitcoin.

Are you going to address the point that was actually made are you just changing the subject like you have been doing for years?

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Yet Another Exchange Bites the Dust

New Zealand Exchange Cryptopia Lost $16 Million in Hack, Not Initially Reported $2.5 Million

What makes this hack especially concerning is that unlike other high profile exchange thefts which typically arise from a vulnerability in the platform’s smart contract code which grants hackers back door access into the exchange, this hack directly attacked more than 76,000 user wallets. In other words, this means that the attackers did not find a single point of weakness in the platform’s smart contract, but rather found a way to obtain thousands of private user keys from Cryptopia.

Even more shocking, according to Elementus, is the fact that unlike typical hacks which usually come down to a race against time even for the most successful hackers, these attackers appeared calm and leisurely to methodically extract cryptocurrency funds over the course of five days while Cryptopia basically did nothing even though it became aware of the breach the day after it happened.

This pointed lack of action is very bad news for Cryptopia and for the cryptocurrency world in general because it paints a couple of possible scenarios that do nothing to help the industry’s credibility. It can only mean one of two things – either Cryoptopia had lost access to all 76,000+ user wallets in what would be a catastrophic and unprecedented security breach leaving it unable to intervene, or the attack was carried out with inside knowledge.

But hey, isn't this what crypto is all about - the democratization of money where anyone can do what they like with it, without being subject to onerous regulations created by corrupt banksters and incompetent governments? And if Bitcoiners trust exchanges to keep their crypto safe, that's their fault for choosing convenience over security!

That would be fine if bitcoiners took responsibility for their slackness. Sadly however, as usual the taxpayers will end up paying for it.

The New Zealand police meanwhile, has stated that investigations into the hack are “progressing well” as they seek to unravel the identity of the thieves and retrieve the stolen funds.

A statement released by the police on Tuesday reads in part:

The assistance of the crypto currency community is being sought as the investigation progresses. This is a very complex investigation, involving expert digital forensic investigators from within New Zealand and in various overseas jurisdictions, as well as overseas authorities.

IMO the police should just walk away from this one. Nobody was held at gunpoint, no safes were cracked, and no actual money was stolen - just a bunch of idiots gave their 'virtual currency' to an incompetent 'exchange' that lost it. They wanted to work outside the system, so why should we have to clean up the mess?

Even more sadly, this is not an isolated case.

The cryptocurrency exchange hack trend looks set to continue

Cryptocurrency exchange hacks seem to be part of parcel of the blockchain industry, and they have been for some time now. However, if the recent comments of Hartej Sawhney hold any credence, it appears that the issue could be far worse than we originally thought.

In a recent CNBC interview dedicated to cryptocurrency trading, Hartej Sawhney argued that the cryptocurrency equivalent of more than $2.5 million is stolen from third party exchanges each and every day...

Hartej Sawhney continued to add that due to the sheer incompetence of certain platforms, some cryptocurrency exchanges are literally “hanging fruits” for those that have the technical capabilities of bypassing weak security systems...Sawhney then went on to highlight the lack of skills posed by those behind cryptocurrency exchange systems. Moreover, he also believes that exchanges lack a QA mindset, subsequently leading to a severe lack of judgement...

Ultimately, whilst third party cryptocurrency exchanges are pivotal in the facilitation of the buying and selling of digital tokens, it is crucial that large quantities of funds are not stored online. If this is the course of action that you do decide to take, then it is crucial that you install the most stringent of security safeguards on your account, such as two-factor authentication (2FA) multi-signatures, account access notifications and withdrawal delays

So if you want to keep your crypto safe then you better be tech savvy and keep up with the latest security measures.

Contrast this with fiat, where the banks take security measures seriously and don't expect their customers to be experts. Just before Christmas I 'lost' my bank card. I immediately blocked the card via my bank's website, then a few days later went into the bank to get a replacement card (turns out I could have ordered that online too...). In the mean time I couldn't do any any electronic transactions, but that didn't matter because I had another form of fiat currency in my wallet called 'cash'.

So while conventional banks may be 'corrupt', they have the advantage of offering both convenience and security, as well as peace of mind. Libertarians may pooh-pooh such niceties, but if Bitcoin is to break into the mainstream it will have to offer a similar quality of service. That doesn't look to be happening any time soon...

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Purely speculative “assets” like bitcoin are not meaningfully different than online gambling IMO, and should never be viewed or presented as investments.

This is true in practice, but Bitcoin is touted as being more than just a vehicle for speculation. According to the OP it is "superior to all other currencies in existence" and "will change the face of the planet". This vague promise is encouraging people to 'HODL' and stop the price from collapsing, and it is constantly being talked up by libertarian evangelists who desperately want it to succeed. How long can they keep the dream alive?

For some, it's already turning into a nightmare.

McAfee to Lead 2020 Presidential Campaign ‘in Exile’ After IRS Indictment

United States entrepreneur and serial cryptocurrency advocate John McAfee has fled the country to conduct his 2020 presidential campaign, he said in a video statement Jan. 22. McAfee claims he has been indicted by U.S. tax authorities and plans to run his campaign from a boat in international waters.

While he said he did not know the exact nature of the allegations against him, McAfee added he had not paid taxes for the past eight years.

“I’ve made no secret of it; I’ve not filed returns,” he said in the first of several video blogs uploaded to Twitter on Tuesday,

The tech mogul has made a name for himself as an outspoken advocate of cryptocurrency in recent years. Perhaps most infamously, he publicly wagered "I will eat my d**k on national television" if the price of Bitcoin (BTC) did not hit $1 million by 2020.

Other activities have been less successful. Last year, McAfee endorsed reportedly “unhackable” Bitcoin wallet Bitfi, similarly betting the online community no one could compromise it.

When someone evidently did, a social media battle ensued before Bitfi ultimately withdrew its security claims.

I predict it will all come to a 'head' next year when McAfee refuses to do what he promised.