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Bitcoin - Part 2

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PartSkeptic said:
Headed down again after struggling to recover.
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Day to day price movements don't mean much. If past trends are anything to go by the next big rally is 2-3 months away.

Or not. But one thing's for sure - it's not headed for the Moon any time soon.

psionl0 said:
The other comparisons are Euro at 0.009% (11111.11 days or 30 years), AUD at 0.003% (33333.33 days or 91 years) and CAD at 0.005% (20000 days or 55 years). I don't think we have enough empirical data to make those conclusions.
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We have historical data that shows those currencies haven't collapsed over longer time frames. You may think this suggests the estimates are a bit high, and you may be right. However if so that is actually not good news for Bitcoin.

One of Bitcoin's main attractions and purported reason for its existence is that fiat currencies are 'worthless' and not safe stores of value. So if it can be shown that fiat currencies such as the Euro and AUD are actually very safe and extremely unlikely to become worthless then Bitcoin loses one of its main selling points.

OTOH, where a currency is in trouble Bitcoin stands to gain. This is happening in Venezuela and Turkey right now, and probably also in other countries with weak currencies. Perversely, some bitcoiners are cheering it on in the hopes of driving the price up, and some even think currency crashes are a good thing because it validates their ideology. If the Euro or the AUD or USD actually did crash to nothing they would be dancing in the streets. Luckily for us the chances of that happening are virtually zero, but it's still not a nice attitude (and for people in troubled countries it's not just a theory).
 
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On Tuesday, one of the top posts on the popular bitcoin forum of Reddit was information for suicide prevention hotlines.
 
applecorped said:
On Tuesday, one of the top posts on the popular bitcoin forum of Reddit was information for suicide prevention hotlines.
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The bitconnect subreddit is a blast to read through. Tons of old posts of people trying to warn everyone that it was an obvious ponzi scheme, but plenty of people gloating about how rich they were going to get. Newer posts are all gnashing of teeth when the market collapsed and everyone lost everything, and then silence. Worth a read.
 
Stupidly putting all their eggs in a single basket, and/or borrowing to buy into futures.


Like going all in on a pair of twos.


Norm
 
fromdownunder said:
Stupidly putting all their eggs in a single basket, and/or borrowing to buy into futures.


Like going all in on a pair of twos.


Norm
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Surely, a few people have invested unwisely, but I can't see evidence that many have lost everything. Could be so, but I'd wait and see.
 
phiwum said:
Surely, a few people have invested unwisely, but I can't see evidence that many have lost everything. Could be so, but I'd wait and see.
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Lots of anecdotes from people who bought during the 10k-20k FOMO rush, quite a few posts can be found on various Reddit threads. Some may be trolling, but some stories seem honest. More than a few people borrowed heavily to get in a market they did not understand.

We're in the middle of another bounce, but the volumes continue to be very low, and BTC is benefiting from the death spiral of most other coins, with ETH really suffering.
 
fromdownunder said:
Stupidly putting all their eggs in a single basket, and/or borrowing to buy into futures.


Like going all in on a pair of twos.


Norm
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I'd also add in investing money that never should have been invested at all. FOMO is strong and many believed that Bitcoin was a "sure thing". Anyone investing responsibly won't have their life turned upside down by a drop in value, but if you've gambled the mortgage money one could easily see themselves having an intense cash flow problem.
 
SuburbanTurkey said:
I'd also add in investing money that never should have been invested at all. FOMO is strong and many believed that Bitcoin was a "sure thing".
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The fact remains that everybody who bought bitcoins at any previous price peak and held on to them has come out ahead - way ahead.

I'm not saying that it will happen again this time but it is a bet worth considering if you can afford it.

SuburbanTurkey said:
Anyone investing responsibly won't have their life turned upside down by a drop in value, but if you've gambled the mortgage money one could easily see themselves having an intense cash flow problem.
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Yup. I have been saying this all along.
 
psionl0 said:
The fact remains that everybody who bought bitcoins at any previous price peak and held on to them has come out ahead - way ahead.
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(bolding mine)



Could you elaborate on this? The $19,000+ price peak last December has, to date, seen a pretty substantial paper loss for those still holding.


Norm
 
fromdownunder said:
Could you elaborate on this? The $19,000+ price peak last December has, to date, seen a pretty substantial paper loss for those still holding.
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I have elaborated on this many times on this thread.

In December 2013, the price peaked at $1,163 and from there it fell all the way down to $152. Nervous nellies bought at that time would have lost even more than those who bought at the most recent peak - especially if they bet their house. OTOH those who have held on are still laughing even though they had to wait nearly 4 years before their paper loss turned into a profit.

If you look at the price charts, you will see this theme repeated over and over again. Betting on a full price recovery now may not be considered a "safe" bet but I would still prefer it over a roulette table.
 
psionl0 said:
I have elaborated on this many times on this thread.

In December 2013, the price peaked at $1,163 and from there it fell all the way down to $152. Nervous nellies bought at that time would have lost even more than those who bought at the most recent peak - especially if they bet their house. OTOH those who have held on are still laughing even though they had to wait nearly 4 years before their paper loss turned into a profit.

If you look at the price charts, you will see this theme repeated over and over again. Betting on a full price recovery now may not be considered a "safe" bet but I would still prefer it over a roulette table.
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While technically true, has no predictive value.
 
Henri McPhee said:
There is an interesting article about Bitcoin on the internet today at:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/mar...currency-investors/ar-BBMdaGc?ocid=spartanntp

Can this possibly be true?
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You mean this?

Kim Hyon-jeong, a 45-year-old teacher and mother of one who lives on the outskirts of Seoul, said she put about 100 million won, or $90,000 (£70,000), into cryptocurrencies last fall. She drew on savings, an insurance policy and a $25,000 (£19,500) loan. Her investments are now down about 90 percent.
“I thought that cryptocurrencies would be the one and only breakthrough for ordinary hardworking people like us,” she said. “I thought my family and I could escape hardship and live more comfortably, but it turned out to be the other way around.”...

Charles Herman, a 29-year-old small-business owner in Charleston, S.C., became obsessed with virtual currencies in September. He said he now felt that he had wasted 10 months of his life trying to play the markets.

While he is essentially back to the $4,000 (£3,100) he put in, he has soured on the revolutionary promises that virtual currency fanatics made for the technology last year and has resumed investing his money in real estate....

“I’m living off the little savings I have left still in my bank account,” Mr. Roberts said. “I’ve made a mistake, and now I’m going to have to unfortunately pay the cost for the next few years.”...

Twitter is also filled with complaints, like the one from a user named @Notsofrugaljoey, who wrote: “It’s really hard to stomach losing all my hard earned money. Just broke down and cried.”
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Yes, it's all true.

But more importantly it shows that the mood is changing. Hype is giving way to horror stories and sentiment is turning sour. It doesn't matter that 'technically' Bitcoin should be going to the Moon, if people lose faith in it then it will fail.
 
psionl0 said:
Who's making a prediction?
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I forgot about our resident soothsayer. :rolleyes:
Roger Ramjets said:
This year may be your last chance to make big money out of it, so don't delay - buy Bitcoin today!
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Roger Ramjets said:
Day to day price movements don't mean much. If past trends are anything to go by the next big rally is 2-3 months away.
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Roger Ramjets said:
But more importantly it shows that the mood is changing. Hype is giving way to horror stories and sentiment is turning sour. It doesn't matter that 'technically' Bitcoin should be going to the Moon, if people lose faith in it then it will fail.
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psionl0 said:
Who's making a prediction?
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Anyone investing or "betting" on bitcoin. You know, like you were talking about? The ones you described as "nervous nellies" if they sold at the wrong time or the ones who are "laughing" if they turned a profit?
 
Mycroft said:
Anyone investing or "betting" on bitcoin.
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The same could be said of somebody who bets at the roulette table.

I don't think that it is a useful definition of "prediction" to equate it as "betting". Somebody could make a prediction without putting money on it.
 
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