Bitcoin - Part 2

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Thanks for the welcome psion10. It was actually following this thread that got me interested in monitoring bitcoin and related articles in the first place. Plus a history of working with statistics in a previous life.


I have no intention of predicting anything, and indeed the article I linked to above showed an "expert opinion" who presumably studies and charts bitcoin movements regularly was proven wrong within six hours. Horribly wrong.


In addition, as a Stamp Collector for over 50 years, and an Admin. on a Stamp Board, I am often asked what is the best way to invest in stamps. The best way is, of course, don't. It is far too risky trying to second guess the next big thing. It's just a hobby with sometimes, but not always, good financial benefits, and the late 70's/early '80's Boom bankrupted many dealers down to their last pair of socks.


But that is a separate discussion.



Norm
 
Well here is one real use for bitcoin, donating to nazis.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2018/08/06/bitcoin-donations-to-neo-nazis-are-climbing-ahead-of-this-weekends-unite-the-right-rally/#749bb6069ac6

So to properly make bitcoin work all we need is for more nazis to take power, after all "Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have long been associated with the far right and other extremists around the world, due to their relative anonymity and ease of use. The U.S. white nationalist Richard Spencer called bitcoin the “currency of the alt-right”."

So when you think bitcoin think nazis.
 
I looked at the Bitcoin graph and saw a series of red lines all down.

Serious drop. Such a plummet could start an exit rush.

Here in South Africa, they are promoting crypto big time. The dizzy dame says "I am scared of all this technical stuff, but this site is so easy to buy, sell and trade."
 
PartSkeptic said:
I looked at the Bitcoin graph and saw a series of red lines all down.

Serious drop. Such a plummet could start an exit rush.
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Perhaps, or perhaps that 'series of red lines all down' just indicates the end of another bounce. Unless there is a serious change of mood I expect them to continue.

Many bitcoiners are expecting a big rally before the end of the year, and are probably HODLing until then. Barring calamity I think it will happen, but will it be enough to meet their expectations? If not then we might see the price collapse in January.

This year may be your last chance to make big money out of it, so don't delay - buy Bitcoin today!
 
Could Bitcoin become worthless in a single day?

Yale economist: Here's how likely it is that bitcoin will become worthless
By studying the price data for bitcoin from 2011 to 2018, along with that of Ripple's XRP and Ethereum's ether from the newer currencies' inceptions in 2012 and 2015 respectively, Tsyvinski and Liu were able to calculate the probability that the price of a cryptocurrency would drop to zero in a day.

"The current implied daily disaster probability is about 0.4 percent for Bitcoin, 0.6 percent for Ripple, and 0.3 percent for Ethereum,"

To give context, Tsyvinski and Liu also calculated chances of government-backed world currencies failing (essentially being worth zero U.S. dollars): The chance the Euro would become worthless is 0.009 percent, the Australian dollar is 0.003 percent, and the Canadian dollar measures 0.005 percent, Tsyvinski tells the YaleNews.

So bitcoin's 0.4 percent probability may sound low, but it is a "massive" risk when compared to other traditional currencies, Tsyvinski explains.
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Roger Ramjets said:
Yale economist: Here's how likely it is that bitcoin will become worthless
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However, it's important to remember that its value can fall all the way back to zero. In fact, there is a 0.4 percent chance bitcoin will become worthless, according to a new report by two Yale University economists.
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Unfortunately, this report is behind a paywall so we can't tell how these figures were arrived at.

To put it in context, a probability of 0.4% of the price falling to zero in a single day would imply a fall to zero once every 250 days on average. That doesn't seem to be borne out by the price charts.

The other comparisons are Euro at 0.009% (11111.11 days or 30 years), AUD at 0.003% (33333.33 days or 91 years) and CAD at 0.005% (20000 days or 55 years). I don't think we have enough empirical data to make those conclusions.
 
I can't post links yet, but you should look at what happened to OKEx, another unregulated exchange, they had a person attempting to margin trade just under 500 million dollars, and liquidated as prices dropped. They had to claw back money from other users as the futures trading losses are "socialized" amongst other traders.

How would anyone do margin trading in this unregulated market beats me, it's insane.
 
LlamaDrama said:
How would anyone do margin trading in this unregulated market beats me, it's insane.
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If you borrow money to trade in bitcoin then that is what you are and you deserve what you get.

Bitcoin doesn't protect anybody from their own stupidity. Anybody who takes sensible precautions should be ok provided that they can financially withstand the frequent price shocks that bitcoin is subject to.
 
psionl0 said:
If you borrow money to trade in bitcoin then that is what you are and you deserve what you get.

Bitcoin doesn't protect anybody from their own stupidity. Anybody who takes sensible precautions should be ok provided that they can financially withstand the frequent price shocks that bitcoin is subject to.
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It's like you're simultaneously saying you're foolish if you gamble, and not to gamble what you can't afford to lose. Both are kind of useless platitudes.
 
Mycroft said:
It's like you're simultaneously saying you're foolish if you gamble, and not to gamble what you can't afford to lose. Both are kind of useless platitudes.
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My father was a lowly construction foreman who played poker with the wealthy owners of the horse betting outlet. In his early days, a few years after his marriage, he signed an IOU for a massive bet on one hand and lost. The next week the collectors came. They took everything. The cars, the furniture, the appliances, the clothes and even my Moms engagement ring.

She left him and took us with (we were two and four years old). In three weeks he had won it all back, and arrived to pick us up in a big shiny new car, and gave my Mom a big new diamond engagement ring. The apartment was fully furnished.

She made him promise never to borrow to gamble. He never did after that.

Mind you, it was not gambling. Except for that one stunt, he always won at the end of the 24-hour sessions. He gave my Mom the cheques and he kept the cash.

Now bitcoin - that was a gamble in the early days that paid off for some. Now it is fools gold. Looks shiny but is worthless.
 
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PartSkeptic said:
My father was a lowly construction foreman who played poker with the wealthy owners of the horse betting outlet. In his early days, a few years after his marriage, he signed an IOU for a massive bet on one hand and lost. The next week the collectors came. They took everything. The cars, the furniture, the appliances, the clothes and even my Moms engagement ring.

She left him and took us with (we were two and four years old). In three weeks he had won it all back, and arrived to pick us up in a big shiny new car, and gave my Mom a big new diamond engagement ring. The apartment was fully furnished.

She made him promise never to borrow to gamble. He never did after that.

Mind you, it was not gambling. Except for that one stunt, he always won at the end of the 24-hour sessions. He gave my Mom the cheques and he kept the cash.

Now bitcoin - that was a gamble in the early days that paid off for some. Now it is fools gold. Looks shiny but is worthless.
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Playing cards for money is always gambling.
 
Lplus said:
Playing cards for money is always gambling.
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Technically yes.

But when a guy is so good and his opponents not so good (and very rich) it could be called taking candy from a baby.

He played for about 15 years, and it was a great source of income. I asked why they let him play? He said that he made sure he kept up an entertaining conversation, moaned when he losing, said he was just getting back his losses when winning, and kept his winnings out of sight.

Afterward, he would go out to the betting stalls and make a big deal of betting on horses and entertaining the betting public. He only bet a portion of his winnings because betting on horses is a losing gamble. He said they wanted him there because he was the one to try to beat. It is all psychology.

He was one of those "larger than life" characters and a legend in construction in Southern Africa.
 
PartSkeptic said:
Technically yes.

But when a guy is so good and his opponents not so good (and very rich) it could be called taking candy from a baby.

He played for about 15 years, and it was a great source of income. I asked why they let him play? He said that he made sure he kept up an entertaining conversation, moaned when he losing, said he was just getting back his losses when winning, and kept his winnings out of sight.

Afterward, he would go out to the betting stalls and make a big deal of betting on horses and entertaining the betting public. He only bet a portion of his winnings because betting on horses is a losing gamble. He said they wanted him there because he was the one to try to beat. It is all psychology.

He was one of those "larger than life" characters and a legend in construction in Southern Africa.
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Dammit. Your dad was/is like that one scene in Casino that shows how it all ticks behind the scenes, rolled into one person and without the overhead of running a Casino.
 
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